As we begin to enter the ‘wheeling and dealing’ phase of the shortest NBA off season ever I thought it would be fun to juxtapose the trade scenarios with some reasons why I think we should hold onto some of our key contributors not named Anthony Davis or LeBron James. While some of these players may end up elsewhere, in this opionators opinion that we should do what we can to retain their services.
- Rajon Rondo. The obvious first choice. He may only play for 1/3 to 1/2 the regular season, may take careless risks in the regular season and his superpower is laregly rendered moot during the regular season. While I believe the moniker “Playoff Rondo” to be both overly simplistic and factually incorrect (I prefer Hyper-Prepared Rondo, lol) there is no denying his impact in a 7 game series. Furthermore, he’s the perfect backup point guard to pair with LeBron and Davis. He doesn’t need to score. Ever. His impact is not in the amount of points he scores but rather the points he creates for others. The buckets he scores are the cherry on top. His ability to be a coach on the floor, bringing the guys together during foul shots, and allowing LeBron to take on a off-ball roll are all instrumental to the Lakers success.
- Alex Caruso coming in hot right behind Rondo. There’s a Wall Street Journal story about the pairing of Caruso and James. Together they have +18.6 points per 100 possessions. The other HOF and All Star teammates LeBron has played with that reached that number? Z-E-R-O. Not Kyrie, not Wade, not Davis, Bosh or Love. Nobody. The tandem of James and Caruso was more devastating than the hyped pick and roll we hoped to see from LBJ and AD. You don’t trade that weapon away for a player of unknown impact or for an expensive HOF/All Star that needs the ball. Certainly not for Jrue Holiday. No offense to any other player in the NBA but it takes a certain amount of selflessness, smarts and physical gifts that few possess to succeed at that level playing with a star like LeBron. Putting selflessness first was not by chance, it defines Caruso as a player. he doesn’t need the ball to score, hits enough threes to keep defenders kind of honest and is an excellent off-ball cutter. James and Rondo both rely on those kinds of players to rack up assists and open the floor for drives. The funny thing is it sort of took Avery Bradley opting out of the Bubble for Caruso to truly shine which begs the following question: if Bradley opts in and with Caruso under contract, where does that leave us with Rajon Rondo and KCP in free agency?
- Kyle Kuzma. I know, this one looks a little odd to me, too. But here’s my line of thinking. Yes, the Lakers are a mega-earning powerhouse sports franchise. Yes the Lakers are known to value superstar wattage to solid production from role players. Yes Kyle Kuzma had an up and down season and regressed (again) from the three point line. But he was our 3rd leading scorer in the regular season and only .7 points behind KCP in points per game in the playoffs. His defense, play making and ability to do things other than score to help the team all took steps forward, especially his defense. On top of all that Kyle is cheap this year ($3.5 mil for 2020-21) and cheap in terms of QO/cap hit in the year of Giannis ($5.2 mil, but with an $8.9 mil cap hit until signed). This is significant for a variety of reasons. Cheap, impactful talent is 24 karat solid gold for an NBA GM. You want to avoid triggering the hard cap at any and all costs and Kuzma keeps improving every year in multiple ways. If he can regain anything close to the touch he showed as a rookie we will have a player that can start or have tremendous impact coming off the bench. The Caruso Rule applies here, as well: unless you’re bringing back the perfect fit of a player for both AD and LeBron, and there aren’t many, stick with what worked and let it improve even more. A 5-10% overall improvement in Kuzma’s game puts him in similar categories to a lot of the players we theorize trading Kyle for but at a fraction of the cost.
- Dwight Howard. This one depends a lot on what late-career Dwight is looking for. Money? Guaranteed starting spot? Larger role on offense? Rings? if it’s the last one my hope is he can find a way to return to LA on a cheap deal, we won’t be able to offer him a deal that represents his true value to the team. While he may not be the Dwight of old (and has been taking some heat from his family on social media for his Dad skills) he was invaluable in some of our playoff series wins. The pressure he puts on the defensive rebounding of our opposition is elite, his rolls to the rim are effective and he still has great defensive timing when he challenges shots. While I wouldn’t consider moving players in order to free ups space to offer him more money I would consider offering him a deal early in free agency that was a raise over his pittance he played for last season.
- This one will be controversial but I’ve done some crunching and it’s hard to dispute his impact: keeping Danny Green even if it means we don’t sign KCP.. I know, I know…he’s over-priced based on his box score stats. But if one is being honest and looks at the deeper numbers Green’s impact on the Lakers on both ends of the floor was essential to the success of the team. Green is tossed into trades because of the need to fill salary while chasing other team’s superstars and the gaps are filled in, often with some of the players mentioned above. But, for one second, let’s say we don’t shoot for an unnecessary home run, after all we did just win the NBA championship and almost as impressive earn the best record in the West. Green’s shooting opens the floor, even when he misses, because he has shown a knack for hitting big shots, going on streaks from three and making the defense pay for forgetting him. He doesn’t make a lot of mistakes, a key reason I would choose keeping Green rather than potentially breaking the bank to keep UFA Caldwell-Pope and he’s solid on defense. The one thing that makes me lean more to the KCP side of things, should it come down to trading Green to clear space to resign Pope and not get hard capped.
There are some controversial notions above, I admit, furthermore the Lakers may feel entirely differently than I do. I don’t work for the Los Angeles Lakers under Rob Pelinka so I can’t say with any certainty whatsoever how they evaluate their current players or juxtapose the roster with what they think they can trade for. For my part,as an observer and opionator, I can’t think of a player that we can trade for that will bring back the impact of Caruso for the cost of the player. They just don’t exist. Another superstar will see limited touches and role if they’re a guard or ball handling forward, that’s LeBron’s role for at least another year, possibly many more. But there’s also a line of thinking that says we should start building for the future. For my part I firmly believe that both Kuzma and Caruso can be a part of that. Of course if once-in-a-lifetime trade presents itself and one or both are the coveted assets then you make that deal. That’s not Chris Paul, at least not to me. Jrue Holidy is the better fit and we should not include Caruso in that deal, we have other assets I’m far more willing to part with.
The last point I’ll make on all of this is why I didn’t include KCP or Markieff Morris as a top-five keeper. While I valued their contributions and both played very well in the playoffs I think we have the players to absorb their loss. I’m assuming Avery Bradley opts in. Frankly, that makes Pope an un-affordable extravagance. He played well in the playoffs, and was instrumental in the NBA Finals but he and Bradley’s skill sets overlap and, frankly, Avery is the better player. He’s as good of a defender, if not better. He’s just as good a scorer and less apt to make silly plays (I have a standing rule that KCP is good for one bone-headed pass/game and he generally meets that standard, that’s not a knock just a reality the player has created via their play). So, if Bradley opts in we’re good at the off-guard spot. The reasoning for Markieff is twofold: I’d rather keep Dwight and stay away from Hard Cap land and I’d think THT can bring the same impact. That last point is highly debatable but he was solid in his playoff showing, great in the G-League and with the success of so many of our developmental league players I’d just as soon bet on that than potentially having to over-pay or use an Exception to keep Morris.
If you’re interested in a quick tutorial on what triggers the Hard Cap and what that means this is helpful: https://basketball.realgm.com/article/241253/CBA-Encyclopedia-Hard-Cap
If you’re curious about our current cap situation, check this site out: https://www.spotrac.com/nba/los-angeles-lakers/cap/
Hi, Jamie,
Lots of stuff for us to debate on the podcast Sunday. Obviously, we have some major differences of opinion on whom the Laker should keep and whom are expendable. So let’s get into it.
(1) We’re in agreement that Rajon Rondo was the third most important player in the Lakers’ playoff and championship run and their second most critical player to re-sign for next season. As for the Playoff Rondo moniker, the stats and the eye test confirm it’s true.
Where we differ is why it’s true, which is not as some claim that Rajon doesn’t work as hard or care as much during the regular season, but rather the reality of games in a series allowing Rondo’s smarts and ability to figure out how to beat what another team is doing shines.
The NBA’s plans to play MLB type series to avoid travel makes re-signing Rondo even more important as it makes regular season games for 2021 a lot more like the playoffs. A 4 -game series against the Blazers or Nuggets will be like a mini-playoff series.
Bottom line, we must keep Rondo.
(2) While I love Caruso, he isn’t close to being the second most important keeper for the Lakers. That player was the guy you left off your list: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Treating AC as untouchable is ridiculous. In fact, there’s a more valid argument that right now, when his value is at a high and teams are inquiring about him, is the time to move him.
I wouldn’t do that for many players but I wouldn’t hesitate to do it for Jrue Holiday, who can impact the team in far more important ways than Alex can. Alex is not a star. He’s a great role player. True stars are few and far between. Great role players are rare but not irreplaceable. The GOAT label is fun and a sign of respect and love for AC but taking it as seriously as you and many Lakers fans seem to have done borders on insanity.
Bottom line, Caruso is a keeper except in a trade for a superstar.
(3) Kuzma will be traded. He plays the same positions as LeBron and AD. He needs starter minutes and pay and will get them. Unfortunately, it won’t be for the Lakers. I do think there’s a possibility he will still be with the team to start the season but he won’t finish because the Lakers are in a WIN NOW mode and you can’t repeat by keeping your best trade asset and hope he improves 10% to 15%. Time’s run out.
I like Kuz and respect how he’s improved his game and approach from the kid gunner he was a couple of years ago. I also think he’ll grow into a quality starter and near All-Star. Just not the time or opportunity to do it as a Laker.
Bottom line, Kuzma will likely be traded.
(4) I have mixed feelings about Dwight. I think he was essential against Jokic but, like JaVale, became unplayable against the Heat. Ironically, like you, I think center is a critical position for the Lakers. The difference is I think we need modern centers who can shoot the three and defend the perimeter as well as protect the rim.
Time for Dwight and JaVale to go and Lakers to replace them with stretch centers like Myles Turner, Christian Wood, or Aron Baynes.
Bottom line, Dwight is a keeper but may be gone.
(5) Keeping Danny Green and letting KCP go? Ain’t going to happen, man. KCP was probably the third best player on the team regular season and playoffs and a Klutch client to beat. Only way he goes is if we reward him with a big S&T for a third superstar. Kenny sacrificed and took those one-year deals and now deserves a multiple year deal and I think he will get it.
As for Danny Green, he had a better season than his stats and the eye test showed. Great Net Rating and Plus/Minus. Problem is his salary is the only one we have over $6M so his $15M and expiring contract are more valuable as trading chips than he is as a player.
Bottom line, Danny is likely to be traded more for his salary than his performance.
Bottom line, KCP was our fourth most important player and must be kept.
(6) Markieff was probably the fifth most important player on the team after LeBron, AD, Rondo, and KCP but whether he re-signs or leaves will depend on he and his brother’s situation and who the Lakers trade for. I could even see a situation where we signed both Morris brothers.
Bottom line, Avery is a keeper but along with Danny, could be traded because of his salary.
Keepers:
1. LeBron
2. AD
3. Rondo
4. KCP
5. Morris
6. AC
7. THT
8. Dudley
Probably Gone:
1 Dwight
2. DG
3. KK
4. AB
5. JaVale
Certainly gone:
1. Smith
2. Waiters
Tom, while I agree on most of the points you stated in your comments, I have a hard time agreeing on the repeated notion: “the bottom line, we would have won without player X” or “we would have won with player Y”.
Championships are won as a team, not as individuals. Therefore, the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. That’s the concept of synergy. For anyone who has played team sports, it echoes the T.E.A.M. acronym – Together, Everyone Achieves More.
A synergy has developed among the players on this team, so their individual contributions to the team are valuable and carry a lot of weight. Yes, Avery Bradley didn’t make it to the playoffs, but his contribution would have helped make things a little easier. Caruso, Kyle Kuzma, Danny Green, Dwight Howard, etc. were all part of the rotation that helped win the championship. Could we have won without Rondo and KCP? I am inclined to say yes, though not everyone will agree. Every one of them has missed some games at some point and there was always someone to step in and help keep the team functionality in place. So the concept of teamwork trumps individual recognition or preference.
On another note, wouldn’t it be a great idea to create an archive on this blog so we can always access old posts?
Buba,
I agree 100% with your comments and have actually revised my post to reflect it. I clearly overreacted to Jamie’s controversial post and let it affect my comments. Thanks for calling me out on the team aspect. It’s always important to have an open mind and great friends to keep you from overreacting in these polarizing times.
By the way, congratulations to Stacy Abrams and the state of GA for changing the dynamic in the south. You should be proud of what you accomplished. I know everybody is saying there’s no chance the Dems will win those senate runoffs but I have a hunch the jury is still out and GA may surprise everybody again. Great day to celebrate.
We’re having a podcast Sunday at 3:00 pm PST. Let me know if you would like to join us. If so, I’ll send you instructions on what you’ll need. It’s really simple and we’d love to have you join us. Just reply here or email me.
Thanks again for the comments and help.
Thanks, Tom. I truly appreciate your kind response. Engaging in lively discourse is what makes a blog great and that’s why I greatly appreciate this blog as a Laker fan. I felt like whenever I am hungry for something Lakers it is this blog that feeds me, and whenever I feel thirsty it is this blog that provides me with sparkling water. So this is a good place to be.
Right now in Atlanta and all across Georgia, cities are erupting in celebrations and it looks like it will be going on all night. Everywhere you go on the roads cars are honking and folks are spraying champagne from their car windows. Incredible scenes all over indeed.
What Stacey Abrams did was an incredible job. She’s such a giant pillar that helped propel voter registration and fight voter suppression. She will forever be indebted for her tireless work. She’s certainly to be reckoned with. Republicans are now realizing they are a dying breed along with their racist agenda. There is also a renewed effort to increase voter turnout for the two senate seats headed for runoff in January. If they can flip those two seats it will be the final nail in the coffin for the foreseeable future. The demographics in Georgia, especially in Atlanta, have shifted drastically over the last couple of years, with huge movie industry, music, LBGT community, religious tolerance, and a host of other minority groups.
As for the podcast, I will definitely let you know when that’s possible since I work on Sundays too and I don’t get home till late.
Thanks, Buba. Sorry you can’t make it Sunday. What are your days off. With the season starting soon, there will be plenty of opportunities for you to join us.
We’ll be counting on you Georgians to complete the arduous comeback on January 5th. Everybody says it can’t be done but I think we have a real chance.
Two great candidates and a state on a high for what they’ve already accomplished. Hopes and prayers will be with you. Go, Lakers!
Tom, right now I am working just about everyday except maybe some Wednesdays or Thursdays. I am running a smog/emissions inspection business that requires my daily presence and it’s one of the busiest in the area, especially on weekends. However, I will try to find some Sundays for the podcast before the season starts. That should be a blast for me.
Hope to retire soon and enjoy my life at home just like you, Lol!
That’s great, Buba. Once the season starts, we’ll be doing post-game podcasts so there will be lots of opportunities on Wednesdays and Thursdays in addition to occasional Sundays.
Ha, ha, I am not sure I want responsibility for the words that come outta my mouth 5 seconds later, ha, ha!!
Lol, I didn’t realize professional sports was so plug and play friendly…
it’s not that I want to see KCP leave it’s that we are likely to have a player under contract that emulates the skillset, likely for less than It will take to resign KCP.
Winning it all without Caruso? Uhm……no, that is a ludicrous assumption. He was the 3rd best defender on the team and a key cog on offense. The numbers bear that out.
The market for Green will not be bullish, the reasons why are the same as to why you include him in every trade. It’s not because of his impact. A rebuilding team won’t want him and winners won’t part with the caliber of player we need for Green.
KCP’s one year contracts weren’t a “sacrifice” he made bank when there wasn’t much of a market for him and he was rewarded aptly for it. I hope he stays but I don’t deem him essential based on the other players in the roster.
Should we trade for Holiday, CP3 or any other high value contract the hard cap situation will remain. Unless the market for Pope’s services is so bad he’ll make more than the MLE, so unless you use cap space to sign him blasting past the cap will trigger the hard cap. Once you sign him into the open space (which is almost all going to AD) that’s it. So unless Klutch is into KCP playing for below market value (doubt it) I fully expect for their to be both more lucrative offers and bigger guaranteed roles out there.
Jamie, Your understanding of the hard cap situation is not correct.
We have KCP’s Bird rights. He’ll re-sign for $12 million. We can go over cap for him and up to $10 million for Rondo without worrying about cap. Even if we were to trade him in a S&T, no hard cap. Hard cap only applies if we get a player via S&T
We won’t be hard capped unless we find a star player who we like enough to use the NP MLE or to S&T. Those are the only two situations where we will be hard capped.
Trading for Holiday, CP3, Turner, or Oladipo don’t cause a hard cap because they’re under contract. Only trading for Wood or VanVleet would cause a hard cap.
If we opt to hard cap, it will because we landed a star player like Wood in a S&T or signed somebody like him or Gallo for the NT MLE. Even then, we’ll have enough room under the $139 million for KCP and Rondo. The players at risk in that situation are Morris and Howard, not KCP.
It’s my belief that Pope will be fielding offers above $12 mil. As I’ve stated, numerous times but I suppose once more doesn’t hurt, I would live for KCP to stay a Laker. But I also stand by that idea that we have players under contract that emulate the skillset he possesses. Now if Bradley opts out that changes the equation. But, should be opt in as expected I won’t be surprised if the math to keep him doesn’t work out.
Hey, Jamie,
I must admit I have real problems with both the content and order of your five keepers:
1. Rajon Rondo
2. Alex Caruso
3. Kyle Kuzma
4. Dwight Howard
5. Danny Green
My list would be:
1. Rajon Rondo
2. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
3. Alex Caruso
4. Markieff Morris
5. Dwight Howard
The heart of my problem with your list is that your third and fifth choices don’t even make my list of necessary keepers. Frankly, both underperformed during both the regular season and playoffs. I don’t see how you can deny that since the stats and eye test both clearly show that. They’re clearly the main pieces along with the first-round pick that the Lakers will be looking to trade. Including them in your list is puzzling at best.
What’s worst is including Kuzma and Green insults the contributions made by Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Markieff Morris. There is no question KCP was more valuable than Danny Green at half the price. And there is no question Markieff Morris was more valuable than Kyle Kuzma, again at half the price.
Finally, there’s the realities you are ignoring:
First, Kuzma and Green are the Lakers’ main trading chips for obvious reasons and there’s a good chance they will be traded.
Second, KCP is a Klutch client and it’s unlikely he will not re-sign with the Lakers. We have his Bird rights and if some team outbids the Lakers, we’re likely to see some form of S&T. KCP will not do anything to hurt LeBron, AD, and the Lakers chances of repeating. He’s more important than having the NT MLE in the end.
Third, Morris was a big key to the championship and keeping him is more important than keeping Howard, who only has value against certain teams. There aren’t many players who can replace what he brings to the Lakers. His brother is the only concern since they apparently share their bank accounts.
My apologies for getting testy. You’re certainly entitled to your opinions but your logic totally escapes me. But, hey, that’s what makes the world turn and the blog hum. I’m sure we’ll talk about this more on the podcast.
It’s a matter of cost vs. impact. Kuzma is cheap, still growing and came into the season injured. So, I’m his case, I don’t see it as a step back or treading water if we keep him and develop stats for the future. I’ll admit it was a toss up between Dwight and Kentavious. Not putting him in my top 5 was tough but I’m at peace with it if AB opts in. There’s a reason why one replaces the other at various points throughout the season. I don’t sought Bradley for his choice to not enter the bubble, he was often our 3rd best player in the regular season, no reason not to assume he wouldn’t do as well in the playoffs. Having said that, should he opt out, it gives us more flexibility to keep KCP. It’s just a top five list, after all.
Thanks, Jamie. This was a well written and thoughtful post. You clearly read my mind completely. You were at full throttle until you seemed hesitant about KCP’s situation. Not that there was something wrong with your take, but I will do anything to keep him, no questions asked. Markieff is another player we should keep, but his situation is a little bit different. Hopefully that will be resolved as I would like to have him back. You counted every player I wanted us to keep and kudos for being in the same corner as me.
I have all along stated my desire to keep improving the team, but when we are too busy on the outside looking in and get so caught up in rushing to make trades which will result in us losing some of these players, then we will get to the point where we can’t see the forest for the trees.
That is why when you are too close to a delicate situation like the makeup of a team that just won a championship you need to step back and get a little perspective. When you do you will notice there was a whole lot of good you couldn’t see before because you were too close, and focusing on the many details and failing to see the overall view.
Sometimes a bird in hand is worth two in the bush.
Thanks Buba. You are spot on and we are of the same mind when it comes to doing everything possible to keep the team together. The list is my first five, if possible I’m in favor of running it back as is. If they didn’t make the list it’s not because I don’t want them to be Lakers, and in fact a couple are under contract for next season, it’s as much a list of players I consider to be nigh untradeable. Having said that, J consider both Markieff and KCP, and frankly even Dwight Howard, to be long shots to return. They played well enough that they may have priced their way off the roster. While the Lakers are obviously in win-now mode and are one of the more prosperous franchises I don’t think they’ll break the bank to keep a KCP or Morris simply because they’ll want to have financial flexibility next offseason. Giannis will be pursued, I believe. On top of the the economic uncertainty will almost certainly forced the entire NBA to show a modicum of restraint in terms of paying the luxury tax. It’s almost certain we won’t be offering guys like Morris, Howard and KCP the sort of long term deal with the right amount of zeros they’ll be looking for. Maybe I’m wrong, maybe they to a man are happier about being Lakers than making money or having a bigger role. I’m not sure we can offer them those things.
“it’s as much a list of players I consider to be nigh untradeable.”
Did I misinterpret this? You consider Kuzma and Green as nigh untradeable? I know we’re all drunk with joy over the election but let’s not overdue it. I’m worried about you.
Hahaha, you really made me laugh hard. That’s really funny, Tom.
I agree. Great points, Jaime. This off-season should be interesting.