The Los Angeles Lakers have done a great job executing an inspired public relations campaign to convince other teams they’d prefer to bring Russell Westbrook back rather than giving up two first round picks to trade him.
With less than three weeks until training camp, the Lakers now appear to be toughening their stance on trading Russell Westbrook and getting ready to head into camp and start the regular season with him on active roster. The Lakers believe neither the Pacers or Jazz trades are deserving of a second first round draft pick and, barring those teams lowering their asking price, the Lakers would prefer to go forward with Russ on the roster.
Whether the Lakers will change their position on trading Westbrook remains to be seem but the team’s current roster is an unfinished product that lacks 3-point shooting and bigger wings to backup James and Davis. Frankly, anybody who watched how poorly Westbrook fit on the Lakers last season has to shudder at the thought of the Lakers wasting one of the only two guaranteed seasons left on LeBron James contract with Los Angeles.
The big question is whether the Los Angeles Lakers are committing suicide by bringing back Russell Westbrook, who refused to be coached last season and could theoretically cause total chaos and disarray in the locker room. Whether Darvin Ham can transform Westbrook into a plus contributor who plays defense and accepts a role is just one of the Lakers’ challenges. Other issues include the Lakers overall lack of 3-point shooting and wing size.
While I believe the Lakers are still just posturing and will ultimately trade Westbrook this offseason, let’s take a look at where they might be at the midseason trade deadline and next summer if they bring back Russ.
Where Would Lakers Be At Trade Deadline If They Keep Westbrook?
Unless the Lakers are willing to sacrifice the coming season and one of the two guaranteed years they have left on LeBron James’ contract, they need to be better positioned to trade Russ at the deadline than this summer.
The litmus test is whether the Lakers will have an opportunity to trade Russ for more at the deadline than this summer. In other words, did waiting until the trade deadline enable the Lakers a get better trade for Westbrook? The key midseason dates are December 15, 2022, when most players who have been traded will be eligible to be traded again, and February 9, 2023, which is the league’s midseason trade deadline for the 2022–23 season.
The Lakers early schedule is brutal and should give them an early test of whether or not Ham could make Westbrook work. Unlike this offseason, they should be able to dump Russ at the deadline without giving up picks. The problem is the Lakers are also not likely to get much back from trading Russ at the deadline since he’s just an expiring contract who’s already been paid half or more of the annual salary for the last year of his contract.
The only good thing that could happen at the deadline is the Lakers getting an opportunity to trade for Kyrie Irving or another star who is suddenly on the outs with his team. The Lakers would only trade picks for a third star. Following up with the Pacers or Jazz to see if they would accept one pick is also probably a no-go since the Lakers would not be willing to give up a pick or picks unless it would be for a superstar that they would sign long-term.
In the end, chances are that the Lakers would not be able to significantly upgrade the roster at the trade deadline because they appear to be saving their draft picks to use to find a third superstar or replacement for LeBron.
Where Would Lakers Be One Year From Now If They Keep Westbrook?
While running it back with Westbrook seems like a huge gamble, the Los Angeles Lakers apparently think the risk is not as great as it might seem and the benefits they get next summer could actually be worth the gamble.
So where would the Lakers be one year from now if they decide to bring back Russell Westbrook for the entire season and just allow his $47 million contract to expire at the end of the season and make no significant changes? Bringing back Westbrook is the Lakers’ stealth way of tanking as it could transform their 2023 first round pick into a lottery pick like last season when the Pels got a huge break when the Lakers’ pick was #9 last NBA draft.
Strategically, the Lakers would now have three rather than two first round draft picks in their portfolio to use to pursue a third superstar, although their 2023 first round pick could not be traded until day of the NBA draft. Having a top-10 pick in next year’s draft plus two post LeBron unprotected picks would improve the Lakers trade portfolio except that, due to players with expiring contracts and minimum salaries, they have no chips to trade.
What the Lakers will have is $35 million in projected cap space plus 13 open spots. While that’s not enough to sign Kyrie or another superstar to a max contract, there’s a chance the Lakers can make it work with multiple teams. Unfortunately, the lack of players to match salaries complicates the Lakers’ situation next summer. Aside from zero continuity, this is the problem with chasing a third superstars with cap space rather than tradeable contracts.
Bringing back Russ and allowing his contract to expire does give the Lakers multiple weapons like open cap space and multiple draft picks to acquire a third superstar like Kyrie but at the high cost of a second losing season.
Here’s the thing. After looking at where the Lakers would be at the trade deadline and next summer, I still do not see anything that is more attractive than what the Lakers can get if they give up two picks now. I cannot believe LeBron signed on to tanking next season, which is what bringing back Russ really is. Let’s get a top 10 pick and avoid the repeater tax and go after Kyrie nezt summer. So Lakers.
The only viable option that makes sense for the Lakers to wait is the opportunity to trade Russ for Kyrie at the deadline. Or another surprise star whom a team wants to move for some reason. But Kyrie is whom the Lakers covet so if they do not trade Russ, it will be to save him for Kyrie.
Also, if they keep Kyrie, they might as well keep him for the entire year rather than trading him at the deadline for anybody not named Kyrie. The cap space is nice but the Lakers need to trade for third star to get his Bird rights. Almost impossible to bring third star via free agency.
Aloha Tom, I believe that the Lakers would make a trade with both picks if they thought the trade would make them legitimate contenders. As it stands, both the Jazz and Pacers deals elevate them to no more than a 6th or possibly 5th seed and and a 1st or 2nd round exit. And taking on the contracts of some of these players will not give them much wiggle room to improve next summer. I think by going into the season and seeing what they have, is a smart move. Coach Hamm has high praise so far for Austin, Bryant and Nunn. If a few of the kids step up, it may change what they feel they need. And if Russ comes in and isn’t terrible it could increase his value as well. He he has a lot to lose if he is a problem child in his next contract. If he plays nice with everyone, it could mean millions of dollars more on his next deal. And as Jamie has pointed out, the less cash a team needs to spend to buy him out, may lower that teams asking price. While I’m not ruling out a trade before camp, my odds of that happening have reach an all time low.
I have to admit I’ve lowered my expectations. Now it’s not the true value of the trade but whether Rob is evaluating the available players accurately? Can he make the right evaluation and right call.
Turner and Hield may not transform you into a championship team but it gives you a chance to have a strong rebound season and be in a superior position at the trade deadline and next summer.
They’re clearly worth giving up the two picks and re-signing Turner to a 1+1. That lines all four up to have two years to win a championship. Lakers will have tradeable contracts for plus players. They’ll be one move away from another championship team.
There is a similar deal from the Jazz involving Bojan, Clarkson, Beasley, and Vanderbilt that provides great depth and a pair of valuable wing players. That’s another trade that would provide a similar jump in talent and future trading chips.
I’m hoping the Lakers are just playing hard ball to improve the deals before choosing one. Both are big wins vs. bringing back Russ and can provide missing shooting and wing size and depth.
No Lakers would not be committing suicide by running it back since their odds wouldn’t be greatly improved with Turner and Hield anyway. You on the other hand . . .
I’d rather not chase a 3rd star. Turner will be available, Bogdanivic, Grant, Vucevic and a bevy of mid-tier stars. Trading Russ at the deadline still has to balance out to $47 mil, only the cost of the buyout goes down. Many of the players you listed as wanting in a trade will be free agents of one kind or another. This is why I’ve been ok with riding out the Russ deal: we can actually build a contender next summer with players we want and not settle for what’s available in a trade with 2 or 3 teams now. Imagine using $42 mil (which Inthink is the max we can downs on FA next summer) on 2 $15 mil and a $10 mil deal? Or 4 $10
two $20 mil and so on. We S&T Nunn into cap space and clear even more cash. It might not all work out, Rob’s track record with picking the right guys around our super stars is spotty. But if we’re not going to be great now I’d rather leave us in the best position possible to be great next summer. This ain’t over, it’s just ending how you hoped it would. It can still work out and you never know how it’ll go with Russ this season. I’m not expecting
much.
I think it’s pretty clear Kyrie is still the shiny object in the Lakers laser vision. Nets have a decision to make before the deadline. Do we want to extend Kyrie? If not, then moving him at the deadline is smart, especially if it can get them one unprotected pick. Of course, that means Lakers have to sign him to extension if they give up pick. They’re betting this is worth passing on current deals.
Problem is what happens if they can’t get Kyrie or another star and remain stuck with this roster for the complete season. They’re not going to trade Russ for non superstars on long deals. Better to just let him expire. That guarantees them $35M in cap space.
Only problem is then they will have 3 draft picks to sweeten a deal but no trading chips to match salary since everybody on the roster is a free agent or minimum salary player. Lakers will have to rope in other teams with their $35M in cap space to get players to trade for Kyrie, which could be tricky.
Anyway, that’s the Lakers stance right now as I see it. Hope they will give up two picks to get Turner and Hield as that’s the smart move. Just not confident Russ sees that. When you realize what the Nets really want is a modern center, trading for Turner is the savvy move to get ready to go after Kyrie.