Why the Lakers shouldn’t trade D’Angelo Russell

Why the Lakers shouldn’t trade D’Angelo Russell https://t.co/XtPQsFr2CI via @LakersSBN

— LakerTom (@LakerTom) December 15, 2024

On a team that has been outscored by nearly 100 points so far this year, it might be surprising to learn that any player has a positive individual plus-minus. After all, the team has gotten absolutely smoked in several games this year, and in a handful of the games they’ve won, they pulled things out in the clutch or just squeaked by.

But, the Lakers do have some guys who are in the positive. More specifically, they have three — Christian Koloko is a +4, Jalen Hood-Schifino is a +8, and D’Angelo Russell is a +61.

Yes, you read that right.

In a season where the Lakers’ opponents have outscored them by 97 points, when D’Lo is on the court, they are SIXTY-ONE points better than the other team. For those scoring at home, that’s a 158-point swing.

And if net rating is more your thing, Russell’s +16.4 net rating differential — the difference in combined net ratings when he’s on the floor (+3.0) vs. when he’s off (-13.4) — is by far the best on the team of any of the main rotation players. That feels important.

Furthering this point, the Lakers have just three five-man lineups who have both played over 25 minutes together and have a positive net rating. Russell is in two those with the team’s original starting lineup (Russell, Austin Reaves, LeBron, Rui Hachimura, and Anthony Davis) being the group that first minutes played and second in net rating at +6.4.

These two realities can be a difficult thing to square.

On the one hand, Russell is having one of the lesser individual campaigns of his career. He’s playing fewer minutes, so his per-game averages are down. But even his per-36-minute numbers are at or near career lows in scoring — tied for lowest with his rookie season — and assists — lowest since his sophomore season — while his accuracy from behind the arc (33.3%) and from the field overall (41.4%) are also some of the worst numbers of his career.

On the other hand, however, D’Lo is the one rotation player in which the team has won the minutes he’s on the floor, he has the best net rating differential and he’s one of the only regular members of higher-minute lineups that has actually performed well.

Something he’s doing, then, is clearly working for the team, even as his individual numbers suffer.

As the calendar turns to Dec. 15, the Lakers have to decide whether this version of the team is one they’re going to stick with this season. They have until the February trade deadline to ultimately make up their mind, but now is when the majority of the league is trade-eligible and teams are already starting to maneuver to improve their rosters.

Russell is most often cited as a candidate to be moved, not just because his $18.6 million salary offers good ballast in a deal or that he’s in the final year of his contract, but because of his aforementioned individual struggles and his history of underperforming in the playoffs.

I would argue, though, that trading Russell is trickier than his statistical profile and history of postseason struggles would suggest. Russell’s ability as a passer, offensive initiator, shot maker and general connecting skillset greases the wheels for team success in ways that belie his individual numbers and continue to show up in the success of the units he plays on.

This isn’t something that applies to just this year, either. Last year D’Lo was second in total plus-minus behind LeBron and the year before that, he was fourth on the team in just 17 games played, trailing LeBron James, Anthony Davis and Austin Reaves.

And while it’s fair to argue that you could simply trade D’Lo for a different player who not only possesses a similar skillset but has a more stable game overall and would be more reliable in the playoffs, I would argue that you want more players on your roster with these abilities rather than fewer — particularly since it’s clear how much they can lead to winning with this specific mix of players.

Yes, we’d all like a better defensive option, someone with more downhill ability off the bounce and/or a better athlete. But I think that speaks to the larger idea of slotting players into the right-sized roles in ways that allow you to rely on them the right amount with alternatives in tow rather than having to lean on a singular option where your success can too frequently rest on their individual shoulders.

Said another way, I think the Lakers need a Russell alternative much more than they need a Russell replacement.

And my hope is that when the trade season is over, they’ve found that player who can marginalize Russell enough that the team does not rely on him so heavily but still allows him a role on the team to continue to help in the ways that the numbers say he has been for the better part of three seasons now.