While Frank Vogel may have been the right coach to lead the Lakers to the championship in the bubble, he might not be the right man for the job since LA traded for Russ, which forced them to go small with AD at the five.
Concerns Vogel might not be the right coach to guide the Lakers through a metamorphosis from an old school two-bigs team to a modern small-ball team were likely the reason the Lakers only gave Frank a 1-year extension. While injuries and a roster imbalance have been issues, we’re now seeing how Frank Vogel’s ‘old school’ philosophies and strong defensive bias could ultimately make him a poor fit as head coach of an evolving Lakers team.
The Lakers front office made specific decisions the last two offseasons to upgrade the team’s offense, especially prioritizing 3-point shooting. It was understood this would inevitably involve swapping defense for offense. While Vogel’s a defensive genius, he’s never been known for his expertise as an offensive guru or innovative coach who knows how to fix offenses. Unfortunately, he’s going to have to rapidly evolve offensively to survive.
This is the modern NBA and Vogel’s unapologetic bias on defense may not be what the Lakers want after the Russell Westbrook trade. They need a coach who creates lineups based on net ratings not just defensive ratings.
How Vogel Went From NBA Championship to Coaching Hot Seat
It seems unfair and surprising that Frank Vogel could be on the coaching hot seat a little over a year after his Lakers won the championship in the bubble in Orlando but the trade for Russ changed everything for Frank.
The Westbrook trade essentially forced the Lakers to commit to small ball with Anthony Davis at the five. Just as trading for Russ required AD to sacrifice and move to the five, it also required Vogel to evolve as a coach. Evolving to embrace a more modern style of play with a balance between offense and defense has not been an easy challenge for Frank to make, especially when injuries have ravaged his rotations and size at the three.
After getting killed on the boards and outscored in the paint playing small to start games and halves, Vogel reverting to starting two bigs like in the Lakers championship season. Unfortunately, the two-big lineups struggled. Vogel’s fascination with two-bigs and reluctance to play shooters over defenders has become an obstacle to the Lakers winning on the court. The earlier concerns Frank might not be the right coach now seem prescient.
This is not the same team that won the 2020 Championship and the path to NBA Finals is more difficult than their gold paved road in the bubble. Vogel’s stubborn refusal to start Davis at the five has derailed the Lakers. The Lakers don’t have time for any more senseless experiments at center like the quarter of a season it took Vogel to finally bench DeAndre Jordan or another 10 games to confirm starting Dwight Howard is not the answer.
The Westbrook trade was made knowing Anthony Davis would have to move to the five and the Lakers would have to acquire and play multiple 3-point shooters for the LeBron, AD, and Russ superstar big three to work. For Vogel to revert back to two-big lineups rather than working to improve the rebounding and points-in-the-paint differential of the small ball lineups threw a massive monkey wrench into the Lakers post-Russ strategies.
What Vogel does the next few weeks could determine whether he remains head coach of the Lakers. For certain, he cannot survive putting out starting lineups with no 3-point shooters like he did against the Clippers.
What Vogel Needs to Do to Save His Job as Lakers’ Head Coach?
As the Lakers evolve into a more offensive oriented small ball team, Frank Vogel is also going to have to evolve as a basketball coach and embrace modern basketball if he wants to save his job as the Lakers head coach.
There’s a formula for winning with LeBron James, which is to surround him with elite 3-point shooters so he has space on the court to attack the basket. It’s a proven formula Frank Vogel seems to have completely forgotten. The Lakers’ offense has been so handicapped all season long by Vogel’s inane starting lineups that lack shooters to create spacing and play right into the hands of the opposing teams’ defenses by making it easy to pack the paint.
Specifically, Frank Vogel needs to make the following five major adjustments to his coaching philosophy and offensive and defensive strategies to evolve as a basketball coach and prove he is still the right coach for the LA Lakers:
- Embrace the roster you have and the direction the Lakers have to go due to the Westbrook trade. You surely agreed to the trade. It’s time to stop trying to play two bigs and embrace AD at the five.
- Prioritize starting and rotation lineups with a balance between offense and defense. Defense only lineups won’t work. Instead build lineups based on players’ net ratings instead of just their defensive ratings.
- Stagger shooters in the same way as you stagger playmakers and superstars. The goal should be to always have two shooters, two playmakers, and two superstars on the court 48 minutes per game.
- Adjust your defensive philosophy to match the skillsets of your personnel. Switch everything whenever Monk, Melo, and Ellington are involved. Fight over picks whenever it’s Westbrook, Bradley, or THT.
- Realize you need to evolve as a coach as the Lakers evolve as a team to continue to be their best option as a head coach. And for the Westbrook trade to work, you need to adjust rather than resist as the head coach.
If Vogel is going to save his job as Lakers’ head coach, he’s going to have evolve his coaching philosophy and embrace a balance between offense and defense that is a better fit not only for this roster but also the modern game. It’s actually a blessing that the Lakers have three full days before they play the Celtics next Tuesday night at what will by then be Crypto.Com Arena as it will give Frank and his coaching staff a chance to rethink what they’re doing.
Whom Vogel starts against the Celtics may tell us where this season is headed. If Vogel starts the same Russ, THT, LeBron, AD, and Dwight lineup with no quality 3-point shooters, calls to replace him will explode.
I find myself torn when it comes to the Lakers actually firing Frank Vogel. Unlike some, who think Vogel is just a mediocre coach or is hopelessly lost in the past, I like how Frank coaches. He’s great defensively and proved he could push the right buttons to win an NBA championship in the bubble, which might have been something the Laker might not have been able to do without LeBron and AD getting that four-month rest.
But the landscape beneath Frank’s feet was dramatically changed when the Lakers traded for Russell Westbrook, something I’m sure Frank was asked to sign off on before the deal was done. Russ forces the Lakers to go small with AD at the five in order to have two elite 3-point shooters in the lineup with the three superstars. Everybody, including Frank, understood that this was where the Laker would be if they traded for Russ.
Despite early struggles, I think the Lakers are starting to see what they wanted to see from Russ. He’s slowly but surely starting to play much better, limiting his 3-point shooting and turnovers. AD has also played great, leading the league in points in the paint despite teams packing the paint every game against the Lakers and Vogel’s insistence on rolling out lineups with little or zero 3-point shooting to keep defenses honest.
Can Frank make the adjustments to sacrifice points on defense to gain enough more points on offense to turn losses into wins? That’s the big question. I think Frank understands his job is on the line and he can’t roll out another non-shooting lineup like the Russ, THT, LeBron, AD, and Howard lineup he unveiled against the Clippers. Do that and Frank will quickly find himself out of a job. I would not be surprised to find that Pelinka had this exact conversation with Frank already. Frank’s job is now on the line.
1) Embrace the roster you have and the direction the Lakers have to go due to the Westbrook trade. You surely agreed to the trade. It’s time to stop trying to play two bigs and embrace AD at the five.
-I’m not so certain he did. Like I said awhile back: this started with a dinner and moved to Rob’s frontier. While I’m sure Frank was consulted I think it’s a big jump to move to a he embraced or agreed the trade observation. To be absolutely honest, Rob talks a lot about involving AD and LBJ in his discussions but a lot less in regards to the coach.
2) Prioritize starting and rotation lineups with a balance between offense and defense. Defense only lineups won’t work. Instead build lineups based on players’ net ratings instead of just their defensive ratings.
– I think he’s tried to but, again, this is in many ways AD and LBJ’s team. The offense runs through them, the plays and actions are one’s that involve them and as a shooter or whatever your job is to get open and maybe you’ll get a pass and maybe you won’t but if you do take the shot, if you’re mostly open and please don’t try to think too much after all of the above.
3) Stagger shooters in the same way as you stagger playmakers and superstars. The goal should be to always have two shooters, two playmakers, and two superstars on the court 48 minutes per game.
-While I know you didn’t mean play 6 guys it does kind of read like that. Again, assuming Russ, AD and LBJ are going to start and close games (they are and they will, there is no need to craft a post considering benching Westbrook in crunch time because that is, essentially, signaling the throwing in of the towel) we’re talking about 20-ish minutes of basketball. Given the limitations of the roster (Ellington, THT, Monk, Bazemore and Melo are our best shooters but also some of our worst defenders and not a one of them is a good rebounder, Bradley checks all the Vogel boxes and I assume his inclusion on the roster was at the behest of Vogel and yes I realize AB is not an elite three point shooter) it’s quite fair to ask which of the above can actually achieve the goal you laid out? Let’s say that both Nunn and Ariza come on board and play at about the same level of impact that the rest of the guys have had. That being a high degree of variance in the quality of their games on any given night. Since not one of them has established anything other than being inconsistent I feel this is an unreasonable ask. If you want Frank to pick the two guys he wants to play it’s going to be Bradley and THT simply because he knows them, they know his defense. This also kind of ignores the rebounding issue and points in the paint since, if we have 2 shooters alongside LBJ and AD and Russ that likely means no center other than AD or LBJ and they’re not ever going to play like a center ought to. The offense might improve but will it improve to a degree that compensates for all the other deficiencies it brings up? I don’t think it does. I think a smarter solution is work with LeBron, Russ and the shooters and figure out where they like to shoot from. I’ve given up on seeing this team run complex actions in the flow of the game, we barely do it on out of bounds plays. We need to get the 2 guys who run the offense to put the shooters we have in the best position to succeed.
4) Adjust your defensive philosophy to match the skillsets of your personnel. Switch everything whenever Monk, Melo, and Ellington are involved. Fight over picks whenever it’s Westbrook, Bradley, or THT.
-I think we’ve seen this to the extent that we can given the place we are in the season. We can’t go back and redo training camp so you’re talking about over-hauling what has already been established. These guys aren’t all high IQ guys, vet status doesn’t mean you learn well on the fly. In all honesty i think the switch everything philosophy for us makes less sense, we already have a propensity to leave the wrong guy open or let dribble penetration break us down. I’d rather see us use more zones and surprise doubles on ball. We need to maybe tweak the tools they already have as we won’t have a ton of time to both integrate the injured guys, revamp the defense and figure out how to make the offense work in-season effectively.
5) Realize you need to evolve as a coach as the Lakers evolve as a team to continue to be their best option as a head coach. And for the Westbrook trade to work, you need to adjust rather than resist as the head coach.
-Again I think Frank really has done as much as he can. The one thing I question is when he takes both LBJ and Russ out at the same time. I don’t get that. He tried AD at the 5, didn’t work well. It’s not Frank’s fault we’re under-sized, he can’t coach little guys to just play bigger. It’s not Frank’s fault we chose not to retain Caruso or any other role-player who was part of an elite defense. In essence, Frank can’t just coach around the team he was provided which is why I blame Rob far more than Frank. While I’m sure the coach in essence signed off on the roster, the job of assembly falls on the front office. it’s not like Frank is Phil, right? Or even LeBron James or AD all of whom possess more gravity and respect than does Frank Vogel.
At the end of the day we can’t go back and make the roster healthier, younger or taller. We’re a small, old team by design. There is no coaching that out of the Lakers this season so the best Frank can do is tweak what they have and hope something clicks. I think he’s been doing that and what i want is actually to give some of those things a little more time to flourish and work out. If we’re going to go AD at the 5 to start games then let’s just do it and call it done, no more tinkering. But that would work better with a banger at the 4 and not Melo who will be around the 3 point line when the shot goes up. We desperately need somebody to box out on a consistent basis. That’s not any of the superstars or shooters. It’s not going to be Ariza, either who is tall but lanky. You brought up how letting Morris go was a mistake and I agree with that.
We also need a better deterrent at the rim than AD is. He’ll block his shot or three/game but that’s three shots out of dozens and dozens. he’s not stopping anyone from getting to the rim and the floater is more prevalent now than ever. We need to force jump shots, bad ones, and we are not doing that at all. We play right into analytics 101 by giving up threes and paint points. That starts on the perimeter and we have below average defenders out there. So maybe a zone works better in some instances, maybe switching everything works in others, but really it’s a pride thing: man up and play some gawdamn defense, guys.
I have many issues with Frank but, in my opinion, Rob should be on more of a hot seat along with ownership because they cheaped out and Rob couldn’t push them off that ledge and commit to fielding a true winner as opposed to the three musketeers and their band of aged merry-makers.
Thanks for reading and commenting, Jamie.
I can’t disagree with you that Rob should also be on the hot seat. Unfortunately, we all know it doesn’t work that way. I also agree that LeBron’s presence – as well as AD’s and Russ’ complicates everything. Not an easy situation for Frank.
I’m confident that Frank was involved in the decision. Rob’s not dumb and I’ve sent a career working in collaborative consensus management teams. The goal in the end is everybody getting on the same page despite their original doubts and concerns. Frank fell in line like every good soldier does when the process is good and I think the Lakers are a well-run organization. Doesn’t mean they don’t make mistakes that some regret more than others but you can’t run an organization well without compromise.
And compromise is what Frank is going to have to do to survive as Lakers’ head coach because he has to find a way to make AD at the five work even without Ariza. That’s his job. If he can’t do it, it will likely cost him his job. Problem is the roster he was hired to coach at first has now changed and he may not be the right coach any longer. That’s up to him to prove. Right now, I think he can do it but he will have to accept that he needs to evolve as a head coach.
Aloha Tom, I tried to respond earlier but it never posted. It doesn’t matter because Jamie and you covered a lot of what I was going to say. What is the most frustrating for me is when one of the big 3 rests. I can understand the difficulty in involving the others when the big 3 are on the court together but when one rests we still are not including the others in the action enough. The first 5 or 6 minutes of each half are important but there is a lot more game in between and that’s where we are really dropping the ball. Currently he big 3 are taking over 15 3’s a game. LeBron is shooting.337, Russ is .320 and AS is .188. Those 3 are killing us with those percentages not only on offense but in transition defense. The flip side is Wayne and Monk are getting around the 10 that Kuz and KCP got combined. Monks shooting slightly better then Kuz and Wayne slightly less then KCP. Considering the defense we lost with those two it’s been a real net negative so far. If we are going to make up for the lost defense, those two have to get more looks. I do believe once Trevor gets back we will see less of Dwight and DJ and more of AD at the 5. Still it won’t matter as much if we can’t get the others more involved. The give it to a star and get out of the way will not get us another ring.
One more thing I forgot. When you add in Melo our 3 best 3 point shooters are getting only one more 3 point shot then Russ, LeBron and AD are. That’s not going to cut it.
Aloha, Michael.
Great post that highlighted a big Lakers problem: our superstar big three are taking too many threes while our best three shooting role players are taking too few threes.
Here’s a Tweet I just posted with the 3-point stats for our three superstars vs. our best 3-point shooting role players: Melo, Monk, and Ellington.
https://twitter.com/LakerTom/status/1468044068986896388
If the Lakers were to adjust their offense to get more shots for Melo, Monk, and Wayne and fewer for Russ, LeBron, and AD like I suggest in my Tweet, how would that affect the Lakers.
Frank needs to address this. LeBron, Russ, and AD are not KD, Harden, and Kyrie. They’re simply below average 3-point shooters. Meanwhile, we have three gunners averaging over 40%. They should take 75% of the threes for this team. That’s 7 or 8 shots per game for each of them and limiting the superstars to 2 each per game.
Suddenly, we’ll start shooting even better than 14th and the superstars will find it easier to get to the rim because of the improved spacing from the improved shooting. It’s how teams that were bad shooting teams become good shooting teams. Create open threes for the guys who can make them.
I think you are spot on about the Vogel needing to prioritize running plays specifically to get threes for Melo, Monk, and Ellington and fewer threes for the Big Three.
It’s crazy that the three players who shoot the best don’t get the most shots. And it’s not like the percentages are close. The shooters are averaging 40% while the superstars just barely beat 30%. Major point, MIchael. Keep hammering it. Thanks.