As we near the trading deadline the standings ain’t doing the Lakers any favors. With February coming fast an d the deadline with it, a lot of teams have moved up into a competitive slot.
While it’s fun to play GM, one imagines real GMs are as driven as the players they sign to win and when you have a shot at the playoffs and a healthy roster today it’s easier to punt a trade to the summer. Yes that Lakers 2029 pick could have real value…or not…but it’s still with the Lakers, still 6 years out, and if you really, really, really wanted it you could trade for it wherever it ends up any time between now and the 2029 draft. Currently crossing themselves off of my own list as potential trading partners are the following teams:
Chicago – Why? Started winning w/o LaVine, steadied the ship, and when he came back they went 3-0. Bulls are in a 4 team pileup for the 9/10 spots in the playin and, with a little luck, could push their way into an actual playoff spot as currently constructed. Swapping LaVine and/or Caruso would mean they think they’re getting a better player back to make that push more realistic. Rui, DLo and definitely Vincent are decidedly not the better player no matter which way you cut it. Flush with their own draft assets until 20230, the allure of another pick 6 years out, however it’s conveyed, probably isn’t worth the gamble.
Utah – Why? Because they’re winning as-is, have ample draft assets and guys on expiring deals they can resign just like we did. For a team like Utah, never to be considered a free agent destination team, finding an affordable core that works is imperative. Trading for someone like DLo who doesn’t move their own internal needle for guys that do doesn’t seem likely since they look like they’ve adopted the Pacers mantra of “compete while we rebuild”. With THT and Olynyk on expiring deals and looking at only $97 million in committed money next season it will be and easy choice to bid Old Long Arms adios and retain the impactful Kelly-O on a deal that works for both player and team since they’ll need to come up to apron floor before next season anyhow. If they believe in THT, too, they’ll have the MLE or simply cap room with which to keep him, as well.
Indiana – Why? They’re 4th in the East and should get Haliburton back around the trading deadline. Even with a little slippage there will be enough time for them to right the ship. Again, if they were to make a move it would be one where they’re getting the better player back. DLo, Rui and Gabe don’t fit the criteria for a variety of reasons. With Buddy’s expiring deal and a team option on Bruce Brown (who really hasn’t had the same impact there he did in Denver, although a lot of what he brings doesn’t show up in the box score and like Rui he truly shined in the playoffs) it seems unlikely that Indy would clog their cap sheet with our guys just for a draft pick. More likely they look to retain Buddy, who has not asked out through the bad or good times, or maybe overpay for another solid role-player or two this summer if they decide to move on from Brown.
Now when it comes to teams on the outside looking in and not generating any upward momentum (personally just looking at Atlanta, Memphis and Golden State) while also not having a trove of picks on-hand, currently, the calculus changes.
Golden State is all but guaranteed to be over the cap once next season rolls around unless they don’t retain Klay Thompson (which feels more likely with each middling game) and waive Paul (owed $30 mil, most/all of which is NG). They still are gonna take their cues from Steph for as long as he’s willing to grind with them. Could the under-performing Wiggins benefit from a new team? His deal is a major risk given how his production has fallen off a cliff and Golden State has most of their in-house draft picks for the next few years but, if they’re planning on being an over the cap team, could always use more since it’ll be the only way they can acquire talent at some point.
Memphis is in free fall, has to be second-guessing literally every move it’s made last season (or aren’t doing their jobs if they’re not) and has major question marks at every position. Smart hasn’t brought the heart he showed in Boston, hasn’t galvanized the team against the world like I’m sure they hoped he would, and is out for 6 weeks. Might they be willing to take back Gabe, Prince and a top-five protected 2029 FRP or a swap in the years to come? The money would need to be tweaked since Memphis is over the cap so we’d need to use one or more of our current Trade Exceptions to make it work.
Atlanta is the closest one of these three to being in the playoff mix. The Murray/Young tandem doesn’t seem to have panned out as hoped for, the issue here being not so much that I don’t think Murray is gettable but rather that if one of 3 or 4 other teams deem him the piece they need they can outbid us with ease. Murray would be a great fit alongside LeBron and AD, is a better defender than either Reaves or DLo and so, sinc the Lakers would be unlikely to have either the better draft capital or player included (and can’t offer cap relief for next season like they can after this summer), would have a hard time coming up to another team’s best offer. It could also be that Atlanta is willing to punt on trades this season and wait until next when they have expiring deals to pair with Murray and probably bring back better talent.
Now, all of the above is based on the fact that the Lakers are advertising that reaves is a no-go zone. Personally I think they view him through the Caruso lens (You gotta “WOW!!!” us) but one way or the other the perception is that he’s not gettable right now. Were that to change I can see the odds stacking up to benefit the Lakers a little more. Frankly the Lakers would be on my list of teams who believe in what they have, as-is, and feel they can punt trades until the summer/next season when DLo’s deal with be a lot more valuable, guys like Vincent and hachimura will have one fewer years on their deals and could prove they’re worthy of a bigger role, and that 2029 pick gets one year closer.
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