Nobody’s talking about it right now but there’s a good chance the question of who’s going to be the Lakers’ point guard for next season and the future could suddenly become a hot topic of discussion between fans and media.
While many have assumed the Lakers will ultimately reach an agreement on an extension with starting point guard Dennis Schroder, Rob Pelinka cannot ignore the growing interest from other teams in young Talen Horton-Tucker. With both slated to be free agents eligible for big raises this offseason and only one starting point guard position available, the Lakers may be forced to make a decision on who is going to be their point guard of the future.
27-year old Dennis Schroder is the Lakers’ starter at point guard and has demonstrated a lightning quick ability to blow by defenders to get to the rim, gravity as a 3-point shooter, and a toughness as a perimeter defender. 20-year old Talen Horton-Tucker has forced his way into Vogel’s rotation with his elite length, power, and ability to get to the basket and projects as a future two-way star whom some predict could start as soon as next season.
Right now, Schroder is averaging 30.6 minutes per game while Horton-Tucker is only playing 15.3 minutes per game. But when you compare their stats per 36 minutes, the 20-year old THT surprisingly has a slight edge. Considering the age difference, it’s easy to see why the Lakers and other teams are so high on Talen Horton-Tucker. A second year second round pick, THT is already matching the potential of last year’s 6MOY runner up.
In a perfect world, the Lakers would love to extend Schroder and re-sign Horton-Tucker to be his backup. With a little luck, that could happen. But How Schroder and Horton-Tucker play easily could change that dynamic. Right now, both have started to come back to earth after stretches of elite play so the jury is still out. Dennis has slumped after a red hot start to the season while THT has struggled to match his elite preseason play.
Schoder is currently making $16 million per year and will become an unrestricted free agent this offseason. If the Lakers want to keep him, they probably need to re-sign him to an extension starting around $20 million. Horton-Tucker is only earning $1.5 million right now and will become a restricted free agent this offseason. The Lakers have his Early Bird Rights so can offer him around the $10 million and match any other offers.
The problem is the Gilbert Arenas exception would allow another team to offer Horton-Tucker a 4-year contract with the first two years at $10 million and last two as high as max salary for an average of $20 million per year. While it’s doubtful any team is going to offer 20-year old Talen a 4-year $80 million contract, there are certainly going to be teams offering him a salary in the $15 to $17 million range in hopes the Lakers will not match the offer.
What seems more and more likely is the Lakers may be forced to choose between extending Schroder or matching what’s likely to be significant offer for Horton-Tucker. The Lakers may not be able to afford to keep them both. The incredible upside of 20-year old Talen Horton-Tucker whom some think has superstar potential could end up preventing the Lakers from offering Schroder an extension, especially if Dennis’ play continues to slump.
With that in mind, Frank Vogel is in a difficult position as it may not be in the Lakers’ best interest to give Horton-Tucker major minutes as that will only encourage other teams to try and steal him this offseason as a free agent. On the other hand, they don’t want to hold back or stunt the growth of a player who might develop into the superstar the Lakers desperately need to complement James and Davis and bridge the post LeBron transition.
While Frank Vogel faces a challenge finding minutes for young Horton-Tucker with six capable veteran guards ahead of him in the rotation, there’s no question the Lakers’ coaching staff view his role as a playmaking guard. With KCP and Kuzma already signed long term and Caruso and Horton-Tucker likely to added to the core next offseason, there’s not much playing time or cap space left to extend Dennis Schroder without a major trade.
If Talen Horton-Tucker continues to grow and develop over the next month, I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Lakers include Dennis Schroder in a major trade for a modern defensive center to upgrade the team’s rim protection. Whether that happens will depend on how well Talen and Dennis play but the Lakers’ need help at the center position and Talen Horton-Tucker is at some point going to become the team’s next starting point guard.
A couple of important stats comparing Schroder to Horton-Tucker. THT has a 99.2 defensive rating, second best on the Lakers behind Alex Caruso’s 9.4. Dennis Schroder’s defensive rating is 106.9, which is last on the team for players who have played 10 games and averaged over 10 minutes per game.
Schroder has a much better offensive rating (116.1 to 103.9) and net rating (9.2 to 4.6). Dennis also has a better plus /minus (6.0 to 1.7). It should also be noted that whenever Talen has scored in double digits every time he has logged at least 20 minutes. Lakers may intentionally limiting his minutes to keep offers for him down this offseason.
Hey LT – Hopefully we can keep em both. Don’t know if I would classify THT as a PG. I envision as a wing player. I definitely agree that the Lakers are slow playing him.
I don’t see teams lining up $15-17 million dollar deals to THT. He’s promising but not a lock to produce with more usage. I could see him commanding an MLE, maybe. There are still big questions about his defense. He could be a solid back up option for us and others. DS has produced both as a backup and starter. If THT plays at the level he’s shown all season he’ll earn money somewhere and hopefully we’ll match but if we don’t it’s not the end of the world or anything.
He’s a very promising young player on a loaded team. Defending champs, even. If he gets an opportunity to play real minutes and shines, he might get ahead of Schroder or KCP. But I doubt it.
He is promising and if a team backs up a boat load of money for the kid, tip the cap and wish him well. I don’t see that happening this summer. But you never know, NBA can be wacko.