The Los Angeles Lakers continue to push the narrative they’re willing to bring back Russell Westbrook if they can’t find a trade for him that meets all of their major trade criteria and makes them legitimate title contenders.
Through various leaks, the Lakers have also said they won’t take back more salary, pay increased luxury taxes, accept contracts longer than one year, or give up more than one first round pick in the available Westbrook trades. Unless a surprising new trade opportunity arises or it turns out the Lakers were just posturing, it’s starting to look more and more possible that the Lakers might open training camp with Russell Westbrook still on the roster.
But are the Lakers seriously willing to start this pivotal season with Russell Westbrook on the active roster after the disastrous results of last season? Are they going to force rookie head coach Darvin Ham to coach Westbrook? The Lakers have done an admirable job creating their own narrative about Westbrook and how desperate the team is or is not to trade him but we’re now approaching the time when Rob Pelinka will have to decide what to do.
Let’s compare the three main criteria the Lakers have claimed will affect what they’re willing to accept in a Westbrook trade and find out what’s a limit and what’s just Los Angeles posturing for potential trade partners.
1. No Luxury Tax Increase?
The Lakers do not want to pay more in luxury taxes than the $45 million paid last season. Considering each $1 of payroll will cost the Lakers $3 in luxury tax, the Lakers will not make a Westbrook trade that increases taxes.
Making sure the annual salaries taken back are close to the annual salaries sent out in any Westbrook trade is usually easy. In reality, this criteria significantly limits how much salary the Lakers can take back in any trade. Were it not for luxury taxes, the Lakers could take back players in a Westbrook trade with combined salaries up to 125% of Russ’ $47 million or $58 million. Of course, that $11 million could also cost $33 million in taxes.
On the flip side, the Lakers could take back as little as $38 million in salaries when trading Westbrook but that would not be acceptable to fans or critics. Bottom line, the Lakers will only take back what they send out in salaries.
2. No Long-Term Contracts?
The Lakers currently have $35 million in possible cap space for summer 2023. They want to limit any Russell Westbrook trade to players on expiring contracts to preserve that cap space to pursue Kyrie Irving as a free agent.
Taking back only players with expiring contracts would seriously limit the players for whom the Lakers could trade Westbrook as none of the Lakers’ possible trading partners have enough expiring contracts to trade for Russ. That means the Lakers would need a three-team trade. Ironically, the two players with expiring contracts on the Pacers and Jazz happen to be the two players the Lakers covet the most: Myles Turner and Bojan Bogdanovic.
That could be the basis of a three-team trade where the Lakers give the Pacers and Jazz each a post LeBron James unprotected first round pick to trade for Myles Turner and Bojan Bogdanovic and a third player.
3. No Trade for Both Picks?
The Lakers’ desire for cap space for next summer, Myles Turner’s and Bojan Bogdanovic’s expiring contracts, and potential value of the Lakers’ 2027 and 2029 post LeBron James first round picks hint of a trade like the one above.
While the Lakers were unwilling to give up two unprotected picks for what the Pacers and Jazz could individually offer, the opportunity to add the best player from each of the two teams on expiring contracts is worth two picks. The trade is obviously great from the Lakers’ viewpoint and probably also for the Pacers who only give up Turner. The harder sell is the Jazz who give up Bojan and have to take Russ. We know Danny loves unprotected picks.
This may be the only Westbrook trade capable of transforming the Lakers into a championship contender. That makes it worth of giving up both of the Lakers’ first round draft picks and not demanding any protection.
These three factors are key and your article portrays them correctly. What goes unspoken is how this all but torpedoes the idea of the Lakers making any trades at all. The criteria above matches both well-established narratives and patterns of the Lakers front office in addition to considering the empirical evidence to date. Jeannie does not want to increase the tax bill, Rob (and LeBron) want to preserve maximum cap space next summer, and the two draft picks are the only tools the Lakers can attach to an undesirable contract to help grease its way out of town. These three facts have been staring the Lakers, the media and fans in the face since last February and not one thing has changed. One pick might be enough to send Russ into another team’s cap space were there to be a team with a $47 cap gap. There is not. One pick might be enough to trade Russ for players on long term deals who are moving out of their prime. The Lakers don’t want that. 2 picks might be enough for the Lakers to send Russ out and bring in two impact players. While its easy for fans and media to sign off on that it’s also akin to the fun game they like to play called “Let Me Spend Your Miney!” You have to be as certain as certain can be if you send out both picks that you are elevating your roster not just to better but elite. I’ve long been a fan of Myles Turner and can’t disagree that Buddy is an elite shooter but those 2 alone do not elevate this team to contender. Myles is unlikely to be on the floor in the last 5 minutes, Buddy potentially, as well. Myles has had a long history of leg injuries and doesn’t stay on the floor long when he does. As you poont out, both can be had next summer without sacrificing a single draft pick.
This then becomes an exercise in “is this really worth it?”. There are many excellent points to be made from all sides. Not one of them really matters because nobody making those points works for the Lakers. There is a difference which looks small but is as wide as a canyon between 1 or 2 draft picks when you consider that the next ine the Lakers can trade would benthe 2031 draft pick which won’t be available until 2024. Yes, we could be involved in draft fay trades but that’s a mighty small window for a team with banner aspirations and an oft-injured superstar.
These reasons and many more are why I have long maintained that Westbrook will not be traded this summer. Far more likely he gets moved, if he gets moved at all, closer to the trading deadline.
The problem is Danny Ainge has to really want the 2027 unprotected Lakers first round pick to take Russ for Bojan. I don’t think he’s worth a first by himself but we’ll see. I do agree that if the Lakers are valuing these criteria, it does increase the chances of keeping Russ, which I still believe would be a fatal mistake for the Lakers and Pelinka.
I don’t think fatal is right, if the Lakers have better health and Ham can be the motivator Frank was not we’ll have your puncher’s chance. There are worse options than Russ in the dunkers spot. It’s important to remember he was our leading rebounder and is an interesting option on the block. Use him right and you can work a mid-season trade with teams that are out of the hunt or disenfranchised with quality players.
Russ is a cancer who should not be allowed to contaminate the team if the Lakers have to keep him. Keeping him will be total failure by the Lakers. There are multiple available trades who make the Lakers better than with Westbrook. Your plan to keep Russ will be fatal to the Lakers hopes of contending with LeBron James.
Lol, it ain’t my plan. Just reading the tea leaves and making observations. They may not be rosy or fantastical but they’re squarely in the realm of possible.
Hope you’re wrong. Turner and Hield trade is the easy solution. Can’t see how Rob cannot see that. But then, I don’t know how he could have traded for Russ, let Alex walk, etc. etc.
Part of me hopes this is all a smokescreen and Rob is going to trade with Pacers but wants to get best deal. Now that would be great but for some reason I can’t quite see it happening. Damn.
There are multiple fake trades. Media loves to fantasize which feeds into fans clicking, which leads to nobody seeing the wheels turning behind the scenes. KD was NEVER coming back…ooops! Mitchell was GOING to be a Knick…uuuuuhm. Irving was GUARANTEED to be traded to us…DOH! And so on. I don’t do fantasy when it comes to sports. It’s unwise and takes a lot of mental and spiritual investment. You’re article is spot on, just not for the reasons you imagine. We lack the grease to make this machine go.
Fatal. For one season. Maybe. Then, one way or the other, you have 2 picks and$35 million in cap space.
I’ve been hoping to be wrong for awhile. It ain’t easy making these observations. Just reading the room.
Sure sounds like you’ve bought into this plan to keep Russ too. Hopefully, you’re reading the wrong tea leaves.
I still believe Russ will be traded this summer. There are too many ways to improve Lakers by trading Russ to risk keeping him.
I don’t believe Lakers will throw the towel in, which is what keeping Russ would be imo.
Lol, I’m the OG on this one. Since the “Wall for Russ and 2 first rounders” ludicrousness it’s been obvious to anyone who cares that look that two things are real:
1) Jeannie does not want to pay taxes for a team that is mediocre.
2) We have backed ourselves into a corner it will take overpaying to get out of…if we’re lucky.
https://twitter.com/LakerTom/status/1566172309123375104
Yes the trade works in the machine. No it does not work in reality. Utah may have given up on being competitive this season but I don’t buy that Indy has. A trade for Russ is akin to waving the white flag…before camp. Few teams truly do that. Why Utah chose to is a question for Danny, but Indy wants to compete. They’ll give up for 2 picks , not one.
Honestly, Sexton and Beasley can hang for a playin in the west if bad luck befalls a team or 3.
First, LakerTom. I (jokingly) hint at you borrowing the Rob Pelinka pic (Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) from me that I borrowed earlier this week for one of my episodes (notice the USC in the background…fight on!) lol jk. Second, I am formally petitioning the NBA that LakerTom serves as General Manager to both Utah and Indiana for the period of two weeks in order to get all these trade ideas of yours done. Third, even this trade would not elevate the Lakers past the Warriors, Suns, Celtics, Clippers, Sixers, or Bucks but if you are only giving up one first-rounder instead of two to field a competitive team, I could be more at ease with that.
I’m with Tom on this. I’m not sure on what holding on to both FRPs really does for the team (Lakers), except to say they didn’t cave in, a pyrrhic victory, the kind the Knicks right now are touting after bungling in their attempt to get the hometown star, Mitchell. (I’m originally from New York, so I can relate to the pain they’re experiencing. I also agree with Zach Lowe hat the best trade we can make is to get Turner & Hield for Westbrook and both picks; I’d do it in a heartbeat. It won’t make us be in the top 4 in the West, but it will put us at 5th or 6th, which is very good. And once Bron smells the playoffs, if AD is healthy, the other teams (including the favorites) wil fear us. We’ll have a shot! If we don’t act, we’ll have no shot and Bron’s amazing twilight heroics will be wasted.
Thanks, Dean. Just 21 days to camp. I still have my fingers crossed.