Austin Reaves is such a hot NBA story right now that you have to forgive drunk and delirious Lakers fans speculating whether ‘Hillbilly Kobe’ could develop into the elusive third superstar L.A. needs for a new Big Three.
What Austin Reaves has done in just two seasons going from an undrafted rookie to clearly the third best player on the Lakers’ roster and arguably the third best player on the star-studded Team USA roster has been amazing. Unfortunately, as great as 25-year old Austin Reaves is, there’s not enough time left for him to develop into the Lakers’ third superstar before 38-year old LeBron James decides to hang up his sneakers and finally retire.
The other issues with Austin Reaves is he’s already 25-years old, having spent four full years playing college basketball, and does not boast the elite physical body and ultra athleticism that sets apart superstar prospects. What Reaves does possess though that gives him possible All-Star and Superstar upside is a LeBron James level of BBIQ, a lethal 50/40/90% sweet shooting stroke, and a Kobe Bryant ‘Mamba-like’ drive to become great.
The big question is what is Austin Reaves NBA ceiling. We already know he can be a big-time contributor but let’s examine the pro and con cases for Austin as an Elite Starter, an All-Star, or eventually even a Superstar.
Austin Reaves, Elite Starter
Austin Reaves will embark on his third season in purple and gold already firmly entrenched as an Elite Starter and the team’s third best player, with a brand new 4-year $54 million contract and hopefully a FIBA gold medal.
Credit for the Lakers’ strong finish last season is generally attributed to Pelinka’s trade deadline moves but Reaves taking advantage of Westbrook’s touches and minutes to elevate his game to a new level was just as critical. In retrospect, Austin Reaves replacing Russell Westbrook was the catalyst that fueled the New Look Lakers to make it to the Play-In Tournament and eventually to the Western Conference Finals where they lost to Denver.
The next step in Austin Reaves evolution is for the Lakers to give him the ball and let him play more point guard, a role he excelled at during the team’s strong finish to the regular season and their success in the playoffs. While Reaves and Russell were a solid starting backcourt for the Lakers late last season and through most of the playoffs, the team’s interest in having Austin play more point guard could portend a midseason D’Angelo trade.
Bottom line, Austin Reaves finished last season averaging 13.0/3.0/3.4 in 28.8 minutes per game while shooting 52.9%/39.8%/86.4%. Before the trade deadline, he averaged 10.7/3.1/2.2 while shooting 49.1%/36.9%/88.9%. During the playoffs, Reaves raised his game to that of an Elite Starter, averaging 16.9 points, 4.4 rebounds, 4.6 assists in 36.2 minutes per game shooting 46.4% from field, 44.3% from deep, and 89.5% from the line.
Austin Reaves has already proven he has the ability to be an Elite Starter in the NBA. Now he just needs to perform at that level for a couple of seasons. We’ll have a better idea of how high his ceiling really is after this season.
Austin Reaves, All-Star
Lakers head coach Darvin Ham expects Austin Reaves to compete for a spot on the West All-Star team. After a sensational playoffs, Reaves is poised to enjoy a breakout regular season that could earn him an All-Star selection.
After averaging 16.9/4.4/4.6 in 36.2 minutes per game in the playoffs, the Lakers plan to give Reaves even more touches at point guard to take better advantage of his playmaking skills and fit with superstars James and Davis. Assuming he will probably play the third most minutes on the Lakers, Austin could have an opportunity to average 20 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists per game, which would make him a legitimate All-Star candidate.
The recognition Reaves is receiving right now for his terrific play in the FIBA exhibition games as well as his role as a Lakers’ fan favorite will both help him immensely when it comes to making the West All-Star team. While the competition to be one of the guards on the West’s All-Star team is extreme, Reaves has an chance with a 20/5/5 season with 50%/40%/90% shooting and help from Lakers fans to earn a surprise West All-Star spot.
Last year’s West starting guards were Doncic (32.0/8.0/8.6) and Morant (26.2/8.1/5.9) with Gilgeous-Alexander (31.4/5.5/4.8), Lillard (32.2/7.3/4.8), Edwards (24.6/4.4/5.8), Curry (29.4/6.3/6.1), Fox (25.0/6.1/4.2) as reserves. While Reaves’ averaging 20.0/5.0/5.0 won’t compare to the numbers of several of the superstar guards who made last season’s West All-Star team, Austin still has a long-shot chance of being an All-Star because of fans.
Austin Reaves is probably a season or two and a championship away from averaging 25.0/8.0/8.0 and being selected for an All-Star game appearance. It’s just a matter of time and experience before AR becomes an All-Star.
Austin Reaves, Superstar
As the third best player on the Lakers and arguably third best player on Team USA, Austin Reaves has delirious Lakers fans pondering if Hillbilly Kobe could become the team’s third superstar next to LeBron and AD.
Frankly, since the coming season could theoretically be LeBron James final season in purple and gold, Austin Reaves will simply not have enough time to develop into a superstar and form a Big Three with James and Davis.
The better question is does Reaves have the upside to make the jump from NBA All-Star to superstar. While going from elite starter to All-Star is like high school to college, the jump to Superstar is like college to the pros.
The hype surrounding Austin Reaves has been out of this world and much of it because Reaves looks more like the average NBA fan than NBA player. In many ways, Austin is his generation’s Larry Bird, the great white hope. Reaves doesn’t have out-of-the-world talent and athleticism, can’t jump out of the gym, and wasn’t even drafted two years ago after playing four years of college basketball. What he does have is a sweet stroke and great BBIQ.
While Reaves won’t have time to grow into a superstar before LeBron is going, the Lakers are hoping Austin’s ability to score and create plays at all three levels will enable him to become Anthony Davis’ superstar partner. The Lakers also plan to experiment more with Austin Reaves playing point guard, which would enable them to trade D’Angelo Russell before the trade deadline without having to bring back a starting point guard in return.
Does Austin Reaves have a chance to develop into a legitimate Superstar? The odds are slim and none considering his raw talent but if he can shoot like Bird, think like LeBron, and compete like Kobe, anything’s possible.
Tom, loved this article. While it is unlikely Austin will ever be a Superstar, a star can still have his jersey retired & make the HOF. But I would not bet against him. He is such a basketball junky that I think he already has the Kobe competition gene. Plus his shooting & playmaking are already such that he just needs more minutes & take more shots to get to the 20-5-5 which will make him a third star. As AK, BK & Mike Trudell said on the Locked on Lakers pod cast on Tuesday & Wednesday, none of them would be surprised if Austin leads the Lakers in minutes played this year, especially if they are trying to protect AD & Bron by limiting their minutes to around 34 & 32 respectively. Austin averaged close to 35 minutes after he started in regular season all the way to WCF, so not unlikely. If he averages 20-5-5 and shoots 50/40/90 or close to it, he IS the 3rd star. I think if he keeps that up he will be on the All-Star game roster by the end of this contract at least once.
Thanks for reading and commenting, Brian. And I second all of the great points you made in your comment. Like I finished the article with, if Austin can shoot like Bird, think like LeBron, and compete like Kobe, anything’s possible.
By the way, the name I’m loving for Austin is ‘White Mamba’ rather than ‘Hillbilly Kobe.’
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I agree that Austin is probably a couple of years away from all star contention. One thing I would like to see him do is work on his 3 point shot. Currently he is very effective at spot up 3’s if he could incorporate more pull up 3’s and on the move 3’s he would become that much more dangerous.
Austin is likely to play most minutes this season but the question is how many shots will he get. We know he’s going to be 3rd at best with James and Davis on the team. Last year, he averaged 16.9 ppg in playoffs on 12.1 shots. I would like to see him average 20/5/5 ppg on 16 shots.
The good thing is he won’t get tougher defenders on him so they key is more shots. Playing more point will give him that opportunity. Thing people don’t know is he is not Caruso, who wants to D first. Austin WANTS to shoot so we may see him become ‘him’ more and more.
Great analysis, and a lot of interesting points. The thing that I think it all boils to is his aggressiveness when balanced against his current level of efficiency. Can he maintain that with more shots, more defenders zeroed in on him, being game-planned for. If he can, then the sky is the limit. We saw the flip side of that happen with THT when the league discovered he couldn’t jump or shoot. They sat in his drives, left him open on the perimeter, and since he’s awful on defense that spelled the end of his hype. How Austin responds to those things will tell us a lot about his trajectory.