What LeBron James Opting Out Would Mean for Los Angeles Lakers

What LeBron James Opting Out Would Mean for Los Angeles Lakershttps://t.co/fpLApQBvBN via @BleacherReport

— LakerTom (@LakerTom) April 11, 2024

LeBron James briefly contemplated retirement after the Los Angeles Lakers’ surprising run to the 2023 Western Conference Finals. How would the NBA’s all-time leading scorer react to an early postseason exit next week?

If the Lakers don’t advance past the play-in tournament, the spotlight will swing back to James, who has a $51.4 million player option for the 2024-25 season.

James’ choice might not be driven by finances. The difference between signing a new contract in July after opting out (approximately $162 million) and the amount he’d get if he opted in and extended in August (roughly $163.7 million) isn’t significant.

Assuming James and the Lakers want to continue their marriage for a maximum of three years (through 2026-27), James may want to opt out to better exert his influence on the franchise.

James May Want Changes

Does James, who will turn 40 in December, still have that cachet with the Lakers? Does he want to tie what could be his final few years to the franchise as is?

There was some buzz in NBA circles that James wasn’t happy with head coach Darvin Ham when the team struggled earlier in the season. If the Lakers don’t win a playoff series this year, will James try to make the team pick between him and the coach?

That assumes the Lakers intend to invest in James at his advanced age, but all intel suggests they won’t give up on one of the league’s top headliners. This is the same franchise that paid Kobe Bryant after his Achilles injury and even Kareem Abdul-Jabbar until he was 42. L.A. may have an eye on a post-James future, but it doesn’t appear to be the main focus for now.

James could push for the Lakers to draft or sign his son, Bronny James, after one year at USC. He could also urge the team to trade for Atlanta Hawks point guard Trae Young (a fellow Klutch Sports client) over Donovan Mitchell, who might move on from the Cleveland Cavaliers as soon as this offseason. He can fight for a no-trade clause, too.

The Lakers might have some leverage over James. How many teams will have almost $50 million in cap room to max James out at $157.5 million over three seasons? The most obvious answer might be Philadelphia, but most NBA sources believe the 76ers are targeting Paul George. If George re-signs with the L.A. Clippers, the Sixers could give James an alternative.

Those same sources believe James won’t want to relocate to the East Coast, even to potentially chase a title with Joel Embiid and Klutch client Tyrese Maxey. Would Sixers president Daryl Morey draft Bronny James in an attempt to lure his father in free agency?

“If someone were going to do it, it’d be Daryl,” one Eastern Conference executive said.

However, the Lakers could take a harder stance with James if the Sixers don’t emerge as a threat to sign him. That might make for a dramatic offseason, but competing executives expect L.A. to err on capitulation.

Expensive Roster, Limited Flexibility

While James’ player option is for $51.4 million, his max salary as a free agent this summer projects to be just under $50 million (based on a $141 million salary cap for 2024-25).

He could help the Lakers by taking a slightly lower salary. They’re a repeat luxury-tax offender facing restrictive aprons next season ($178.7 million for the first and $189.5 million for the second).

With James on the books at $50-51.4 million, the next big decision is D’Angelo Russell, who can decline his $18.7 million player option to explore free agency or re-sign with the Lakers. He may try to get a bigger or longer deal than last year’s two-year contract with a player option. But like most free agents, Russell may find there are few teams with significant money to offer this summer.

Christian Wood ($3 million), Jaxson Hayes ($2.5 million) and Cam Reddish ($2.5 million) can also decline their respective player options. Only Hayes may have marginally increased his stock this season. The Lakers can also re-sign their own free agents at the following starting salaries: $5.4 million for Taurean Prince, approximately $13 million for Max Christie and $4 million for Spencer Dinwiddie.

Should everyone but Christie return, the Lakers would be just under the second apron, which may be the team’s internal upper spending limit. That’s also assuming the New Orleans Pelicans decide to take the Lakers 2024 first-round pick instead of deferring it until 2025 as part of the Anthony Davis trade.

The Lakers wouldn’t be hard-capped, but at that payroll level, they wouldn’t have the $5.2 million taxpayer mid-level exception. However, they could have access to the taxpayer MLE if they don’t re-sign Prince or if another player unexpectedly opts out.

Trade Pieces

Since the Lakers will be relatively limited in free agency, trades may be their only real path to improvement with James and Russell under contract. Assuming Davis wouldn’t be available, the Lakers could shop everyone else, including Austin Reaves, Rui Hachimura, Jarred Vanderbilt, Gabe Vincent, Jalen Hood-Schifino, Maxwell Lewis and, if they opt in, Russell, Wood, Hayes and Reddish.

The Lakers can trade either their 2024 or 2025 first-rounder (depending on the Pelicans’ decision), along with first-round picks in 2029 and 2031.

The Lakers seem to want a third star—presumably a guard who would partner with Davis as James’ career winds down. That could be Young or Mitchell, who may be available this offseason. Alternatively, the Lakers may want to add a defensive-minded wing who can score, although a player like Mikal Bridges of the Brooklyn Nets isn’t likely to be on the trade block this summer.

The next few weeks and months—including the playoffs and draft lottery—will set the stage for what’s to come, as the trade market has yet to emerge.

Or James Leaves

Should James depart after opting out, the Lakers would shed $50 million in payroll, dropping under the tax and potentially under the salary cap (depending on Russell’s option).

If the Lakers stayed over the cap, they would gain access to the $12.9 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception. If they used it, they’d be hard-capped at $176.7 million. That may be enough to get a good player, but probably not a great one, and certainly not one who could replace James.

Can the Lakers compete with Davis, Hachimura, Russell and Reaves? They would have more flexibility to reshape the roster, and the defense might improve without James, but that’s probably not the core of a title contender.

The Lakers would have the power to make additional moves and trades to try to avoid a rebuild. However, they might be better off steering into the skid and looking to relocate Davis and adequately reset.

While that remains a possibility, the Lakers will likely try to keep the imperfect status quo together and hope for better health and luck next season with James playing out his final years with the Lakers.