What I learned about Lakers’ patient offseason strategy

What I learned about Lakers’ patient offseason strategy — and how long it might last https://t.co/rKM3hEbP1j

— LakerTom (@LakerTom) July 16, 2024

LAS VEGAS — More than two weeks into free agency, the Los Angeles Lakers have been one of the quietest teams in the NBA.

So far, Los Angeles has replaced head coach Darvin Ham with JJ Redick, drafted Dalton Knecht and Bronny James and re-signed free agents LeBron James and Max Christie. None of those moves represent substantive roster additions for a team that almost certainly needs one or two to keep up in the ever-competitive Western Conference.

Currently, the Lakers are bringing back a group that finished with the eighth-best record in the West and lost in five games to Denver in the first round. James, who will turn 40 this season, and Anthony Davis, 31, both performed like top-15 players last season. Yet despite realistically having a one-to-two-year remaining window to compete with their star duo, the Lakers have often appeared more concerned with their future than their present in recent weeks.

What’s clear from Las Vegas, however, is that many in NBA circles believe the Lakers must upgrade their roster to have a chance at a deep playoff run. In polling more than a dozen front-office executives, coaches, scouts and agents attending the NBA Summer League, most pegged the Lakers as a likely Play-In team, with seeds ranging from fifth to 10th in the West. None view the team’s current version as capable of winning a championship. Several noted a lack of two-way wings and the hole at backup center behind Davis as reasons for pessimism.

Most notably, almost all expect the Lakers to make a trade at some point ahead of the Feb. 7, 2025 trade deadline.

The Lakers’ inactivity has not been due to a lack of trying. They struck out with Klay Thompson, were unable to land other impact free agents like Jonas Valančiūnas and DeMar DeRozan, and have failed thus far to find common ground in trade talks with Portland, Brooklyn, Utah, Toronto and Orlando. Now, according to league and team sources, the Lakers are expected to remain patient in their quest to improve their roster.

One of the reasons the Lakers have been unable to make any signings and had to explore trades is that four roster holdovers who were given second-year player options last summer — D’Angelo Russell, Christian Wood, Jaxson Hayes and Cam Reddish — opted in due to their performances last season and the tight free-agent market. The latter three players, in particular, and the presence of developmental projects like Jalen Hood-Schifino, Maxwell Lewis and Bronny James, have created a rough backend to the Lakers’ roster. The team has several players who appear unlikely to contribute meaningfully next season and wouldn’t be in the rotations of most playoff teams.

As things stand, the Lakers have a full roster of 15 players with guaranteed contracts. They’re also roughly $45,000 under the second apron of nearly $189 million. That combination means they can’t sign any players in free agency or add any additional players (or salary) in any trades. They have two first-round picks to trade (2029 and 2031), as well as multiple first-round swaps and second-round picks.

The most straightforward way the Lakers can add talent is to make a consolidation trade. They can either send out more players than they receive in a deal or salary-dump Reddish, Wood and/or Hayes, along with a second-round pick or two, onto a team with roster and financial flexibility. If the Lakers traded two minimum players (Wood, Hayes and Reddish would qualify), they’d have enough room under the second apron to sign a player to the $5.2 million taxpayer midlevel exception. They could also add a player in a trade or sign player(s) to minimum contracts.

Gary Trent Jr., who The Athletic previously reported as a name to watch for Los Angeles if it can clear salary and a roster spot, will take his time in free agency, according to The Athletic’s Shams Charania. Trent’s decision could alter the Lakers’ urgency. Regardless, the Lakers expect to make a consolidation trade at some point, though that could come closer to the start of the season, according to league sources.

Since the failed Russell Westbrook move in 2021, which still has countless ripple effects in and around the Lakers, Los Angeles has been cautious in trade negotiations. There’s an understanding they can always wait until the trade deadline to move the player they need to deal (for example, Westbrook in 2022-23 and Russell in 2023-24). The Lakers artfully navigated the 2023 trade deadline, but weren’t as fortunate in 2024, with rival suitors reluctant to take on Russell’s contract in trades — despite his surging play at the time — without additional draft compensation.

The 2023 deadline blueprint is the best-case scenario for the Lakers this offseason or this season. Their patience prevailed and they made a Western Conference finals run. This roster doesn’t need wholesale changes. It’s also loaded with more draft ammo.

Outside of Oklahoma City, Denver, Dallas and Minnesota, the West is relatively open. The Lakers won 47 games last season and played at a 56-win pace after inserting Rui Hachimura into the starting lineup on Feb. 3. There is an internal sense that with Redick fine-tuning the team’s overall structure, better health for some of their role players (Jarred Vanderbilt and Gabe Vincent) and the additional continuity of most of this group being together for parts of three seasons, the Lakers aren’t that far away from competing with the West’s best.

There is still plenty of time for the Lakers to make a move this week, this month, ahead of training camp, early in the season or even closer to the Feb. 7 deadline. Waiting out the trade market could lower asking prices and reverse the league-wide reluctance to take on the contracts of Russell, Hachimura, Vanderbilt and/or Vincent.

But there is always an opportunity cost to waiting in the NBA. The remaining free agents will sign elsewhere. Other deals will be made over the coming weeks and months. Opposing strategies will change. Perhaps the Lakers’ shaky backend depth is tested early in the season. Perhaps they get off to a slow start that renders any potential acquisition a waste. Perhaps James and/or Davis gets injured.

But the Lakers have made it clear they’re not going to trade just to trade. They want it to be purposeful. They may only get one or two more swings with James and Davis. The bar for trading one of their first-round picks, let alone two, is high.

That delicate calculus will likely determine how the James-Davis era ends, and how it’s ultimately remembered.