When considering bringing back Westbrook, the Lakers would be wise to remember the astute words of Albert Einstein: “The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.”
While nobody knows what they are planning to do this offseason, the Los Angeles Lakers have been publicly and privately adamant that they prefer to bring Westbrook back rather than spending any draft picks to move him. This is despite having hired a rookie head coach in Darvin Him and Russ’ salary making it impossible for the Lakers to find players with the requisite size, shooting, and defense to complement their three superstars.
When you understand how daunting a challenge it would be, you can’t help coming to the conclusion it would be pure lunacy for the Lakers to even consider bringing back Russell Westbrook under any circumstances.
1. Russell Westbrook Is Not Going to Become a Pit Bull on Defense
The Lakers’ head coach Darvin Ham has made it clear that defense will be his priority with the Lakers and he expects to challenge Russell Westbrook to become an aggressive pit bull leading the team’s defense next season.
Anybody who has watched Russell Westbrook on defense the last few years of his career can immediately see the disconnect between what Darvin Ham wants out of Russell Westbrook and what he’s likely to get based on history. Ham must be thinking he’s getting the OKC Thunder version of Westbrook as a point guard if he thinks Russell can become the tip of spear for the Lakers’ defensively like Jrue Holiday was as the point guard for the Bucks.
The Lakers better be successful in moving Russ this summer because they’re making a crazy mistake opening the season thinking Westbrook will become an elite defender. Russell Westbrook is not Jrue Holiday.
2. Keeping Russell Westbrook Prevents Lakers Building Deep Roster
If the Lakers do not trade Russell Westbrook and his $47 million expiring contract, their only path to trading for a legitimate rotation player would be by packaging Talen Horton-Tucker, Kendrick Nunn, and their two picks.
That should be enough to net the Lakers a budding young player like 23-year old guard Gary Trent Jr. or 24-year old small forward OG Anunoby but then their small portfolio of trading chips would be completely exhausted. The Lakers could also sign a second rotation player with their $6.4 million taxpayer MLE but would then like last season be forced to build out the rest of their roster with unproven or veteran minimum salary players.
Keeping Westbrook will result in the Lakers adding just two legitimate rotation players (1 via trade and 1 via free agency) compared to the 5 they could add (3 via trade and 2 via free agency) if they instead traded Russ.
3. Keeping Russell Westbrook Limits Lakers Access to Free Agents
The Lakers’ rebuilding this summer has focused on trades since they’re over the cap and will only have the $6.4 million taxpayer MLE available to use on free agents. But that could change if the Lakers trade Russ.
Were the Lakers able to trade Westbrook, THT, and Nunn while taking back $10 million less in annual salary, they could get under the $155 million hard cap, which would give them greater access to this year’s free agent class. They could then use the full $10.3 million MLE and the $4.1 million BAE and be able to receive free agents via sign-and-trade transactions. They would have an additional $8.0 million to spend on free agents if hard capped.
Trading Russell Westbrook gives the Lakers access to young free agents like Isaiah Hartenstein, Tyus Jones, Gary Payton II, and Otto Porter, Jr. whom they might not be able to sign without trading Russ and hard capping.
4. Keeping Westbrook Could Cause LeBron James to Reject Extension
One rumor that’s made the rounds is LeBron does not want the Lakers to bring Westbrook back. The word is he knows signing Russ was a mistake but is not willing to sign an extension if Pelinka doesn’t fix problem.
Fixing the problem means one of two options: the Lakers either include a pick to move Russ or waive-and-stretch him to they can get under the hard cap and supplement what they get for Russ in a trade with free agents. Push come to shove, there’s no way the Lakers can finish this offseason with Russell Westbrook still on the roster. No matter how you spin it, that would signal a complete failure of the Lakers front office to build a winning roster.
The Lakers greatest fear has to be bringing back Russell Westbrook raises the risk that LeBron James to leave the Lakers as an unrestricted free agent next summer to a dangerous level that the Lakers should avoid at all costs.
Include a pick if you have to but trade Russ for the best two rotation players you can get. Keeping Russ dooms the Lakers to another year of losses and frustration. All this talk is just talk. Lakers take best deal available or waive and stretch him.
LakerTom’s version of hitting the panic button lol.
Look at the evidence that paints a picture beyond 82 games and waiving and stretching Russ handicaps in ways the Luol Deng deal never could, they absolutely will never pay him not to play. That’s coming from Jeannie, that’s not Roh posturing. Toss that idea out the same window as the Lakers will use every available tool to compete when we had Caruso’s Bird Rights, Schroder’s potential sign and trade j to cap space deal they could have made to add another spending tool and you start to understand that the Lakers want to be competitive but there is a ceiling. Don’t be surprised when we don’t go over the cap after Russ’s deal expires to avoid the repeater tax. LeBron doesn’t change that equation, they seem to half expect him to bolt after his deal is done. The Lakers are hedging bets which means they won’t be as competitive as they could be. That’s just the sad fact in terms of the current state of things.
Seems like they might even be regretting the Klutch Konnection which makes a full rebuild feel eminent .
Jamie, I know you want a complete rebuild but we both know that’s not going to happen.
Lakers could easily end up with an injured player earning $20M in a Russ trade. Being able to hard cap could be worth waive-and-stretching him if they really can’t trade him.
In the end, I believe the Lakers will give up a pick to move Russ for the best two rotation players they can get.
Bet better odds they W&S him than keep him even to the trade deadline.
imo. But at least we won’t have to wait too much longer to find out.
I don’t disagree with your points Tom I just think there are several key things you either choose to overlook or don’t fully integrate into your thinking. If I were GM I would be leery of mortgaging the future so wholly and completely to move one player when the return is highly unlikely to bring a banner with it. However, I would push harder than I think Rob would to W&S Russ. I think the Lakers are feeling like “we just fine with that dang Deng situation…we don’t want to do that again…” which is, IMO, short-sighted. I’d of course kock the tires on any and all trade scenarios but honestly feel like, even with the picks, you’ll end doing as much harm as good. The market for Russ is drier than the Sahara desert in a heat wave. Same goes for Nunn and THT. It’s hard to see anything close to equitable coming back in a trade. I think the Lakers know and have accepted the following: they will be losers in any trade scenario (even with picks) this summer, Ham has accepted the challenge this roster presents and won’t be held accountable for its failures (they realize they’re giving him the equivalent of the S.S. Minnow complete with the cast of Gilligan’s Island for a team), LBJ and AD are tacitly on board (everyone has optimism in the summer) and to all that they are hoping for either a total 180 degree change (mainly powered by better health and not personal changes in hoops style) to the degree that the idea of a trade thaws a little. We’re talking about what amounts to $62 million in salary, that’s half the cap. Few teams are looking to rebuild on that scale, really zero. It’s too large a sum. THT could opt in to his PO (and whatever team traded for him would have his Bird Rights I believe) so if they’re believers they will have the chance to pony up the cash. I do believe the best deal the Lakers will find for any of the guys above will not be this summer but in 2023 prior to the deadline. We need to hope for a Kwame-esque trade but will probably have to hope for something less impactful. I just don’t see it happening this summer. To your points about putting Ham behind the 8 ball, of it hasn’t been discussed then all involved are idiots. Ham isn’t an idiot so I’m sure that, at the very least, he asked about if the Lakers are optimistic regarding their options to improve the team. I think he can handle it, the ace wont fall for the past errors of the front pffice.
Jamie, first, I appreciate your reading and commenting. I also admit that I’m heavily biased against bringing Russ back and realize that colors my opinions. One of my strengths and weaknesses as an analyst is that I love the process of selling an idea and often find myself able to push both sides of an argument, which can lead to flip flopping. Add my natural bent to look at the glass half full and that also affects the debate. In the end, it’s just fun and I appreciate you and Michael always engaging. So thank you.
What’s the right answer on waiving and stretching Russ? Honestly, I’m not sure. I hated the Deng $5M following us forever and the idea of a Russ $15M for 3 years is not a happy thought. On the other side, however, would that be better than $40M invested in over-the-hill or injury prone veterans? I’m not sure of that, especially since it’s hard to clear cap space when you have two max players.
The other factor affecting my fluctuating support for W&S is being able to hard cap so we can access the class of free agents available, which hard capping gives us $14.4M to spend on non-minimum salary free agents instead of just $6.4M. That’s $8.0M more to chase players like Hartenstein, Payton II, Porter, Jr., Tyus Jones – all players we might not be able to get if not hard capped.
Do I think the Lakers will W&S Russ if they can’t find a trade? No but I think they will trade Westbrook. It may not be for a deal that I love but I’ve become a firm ‘addition by subtraction’ proponent, which is why the one option I cannot support is Russell Westbrook ever putting on the purple and gold. That just cannot happen imo.
Just where I am and I doubt my opinion is going to change.
The main point for me and I have been preaching this for awhile is, there may not be a deal out there for Russ. I began looking at the local coverage of teams mentioned in these proposals and the Lakers players are never mentioned. Even THT and Nunn do not appear anywhere in these local writers articles. I had personally thought that the Hornets might be the most likely trade partner for Russ. Then I listened to a podcast with a Hornets beat writer. He said that early on he had heard that early on he thought a Russ trade could happen but the focus in the organizations had change to completing for the playoffs next year and they are looking for trades that upgrade the roster now. He even speculated that they might keep Hayward and bring him off the bench. As for THT, he is an example of what can happen when you get to cozy with Klutch. 20 years old should not be given a player option in year 3. If he breaks out he can walk. This diminishes his trade value as does Nunn’s expiring deal. Who knows a deal might shake out after trades are made and free agents are signed. But currently the Lakers do not seem to be a priority trade partner for anyone. That’s why like I said, I’m not holding my breathe. As for a waive and stretch, I’m with Jamie, I don’t think that helps us win a ring and 15 mil of dead money would be a killer moving forward. If Russ plays better and displays a better attitude perhaps there might be a deal for him before the deadline. But currently I’m thinking he at least plays part of the year with the Lakers.
Michael, thanks for reading and commenting. More of a vent on my behalf for sure. I do think more information is always valuable and seeing what fans of other teams are saying can be revealing. Problem is most trades seem to be surprises that the teams front offices have been able to keep under wraps. That’s not saying publicized trades never happen just that most trades are a surprise. You’ve pointed out before that many of the Lakers options may not be the other team’s first options. I still believe Russ will be traded and to a team that’s been discussed because the trade will be about money and not Russ as a player.
So the big question to you is will the Lakers trade Russ. The big question to me is will the Lakers give up a pick to trade Russ. I still believe that including a pick will depend on whom they get. I don’t have a doubt they could pick up two terrible contracts for Russ that would hurt us even more than waiving and stretching Russ. We could end up with $40M of bad contracts instead of just 3 years of $15M in dead Russ money. This is a critical summer for the Lakers and what they do could color the rest of this decade.
What I find unreasonable is any optimism that Russell Westbrook would change his stripes. Betting on that is truly a lunatics’ position. Russ is not going to suddenly turn into a good fit. He is not Jrue Holiday. In fact, his approach to the game at both ends is the total opposite of Holiday. In the end, Russ fitting is a pipe dream designed to create the idea that the Lakers aren’t desperate to trade Russ. Hopefully, it will work with other general managers as good as it has worked with some Lakers fans.
The posture now is to give Russ a chance to fit with Ham. Given the public trade scenarios, seems reasonable to me. A lot went wrong last season; I’m giving them a chance to right the ship before I look at alternatives.
I agree Tom, I do not believe that you can change Russ. But if we do end up having to keep him I hope Ham follows through with his plans and brings an actual structured offense to the team. We all have complained from the time Frank arrived that our offense was give the ball to LeBron and let him create. Once Russ came on board it was more of the same. Something that resembles other NBA offenses will be welcomed and perhaps Russ in a defined role will be a little better then last year. If we are forced to keep Russ, I hope we keep Nunn as well. He is better then any of the Point guards we can get in our price range, you know he’s going to defend and his style of play fits well with LeBron. If Russ can’t adjust you have Nunn to take minutes away from him and I think Ham is not afraid to do that. I think LeBron will buy into reducing Russ’s role if that’s what’s needed. One more thing which could be a pipe dream but I think part of Russ’s bad year had to do with him trying to hard to make things happen. Having a structure to play in, along with this being his second year, perhaps things change. I doubt he regains his star status but if he could elevate his game from bad to say, decent it would be helpful. As it stands now there are only a few teams that have enough contracts that they want to move. And it is a real possibility that they find ways to move them that doesn’t involve eating 47 mil. There are actual deals out there that cold land these teams better assets without taking on Russ. I hope I’m wrong but right now there isn’t any indications that I am.
All good points, Michael. It’s funny but there is a world where Russ has to realize this could be a chance to change the direction of his career. In fact, maybe his last chance. Wish I believed he would change because I have always loved his fierce approach to the game. Just have lost faith that Russ will change his spots. I’ll be there rooting for him if he does but I don’t expect it.
I also do think the Lakers will succeed in trading Russ although I admit the Lakers have been able to convince everybody that they’re going to keep him. In fact, you and Jamie seem to have bought the story. Don’t know if any GMs will buy out or what difference it will make in the end. I still am convinced the Lakers will use a pick to move him.
I have several scenarios where we keep Nunn, who I agree is a good for this roster. On the other hand, I have moved him in several scenarios in order to get under the hard cap, which I think is key to winning this offseason.
At any rate, great that were finally going to see what the Lakers can do and whether Rob Pelinka is likely to survive next season. Thanks for all the engaging conversation. Let’s hope Rob surprises us with a great summer.
The Lakers and their fan base need to hope for some real seismic shifts. Otherwise everything feels pretty jammed up. Dame, a Gobert trade, Sousa, Beal are the level of shift I’m thinking needs to happen to crack things open a little. Cap space is kinda worthless when there really aren’t elite players to spend it on. Nobody gonna max out Gary Harris who could be the best available free agent this summer. Nor does it make much sense to assemble a team of $10-15 million dollar players. Next summer gets a little more interesting unless Wiggins and Jokic re-up. That’s why the clear the decks trade pitches don’t gain any traction with me. Nobody to spend all that coin on worth the spending. We’ve entered the era the NBA that is kind of mirroring MLB: keep as many impactful, cost-controlled players as you can for as long as you can and hope for the best. Replace as needed. The old Laker way of rooting the “We’re legendary and are willing to spend (kindaaaaa)” days are gone. Problem is the actual decision makers seem slow or unwilling to accept that reality. Gave all those players away but without replacing them, chose to go (too) big and it will be a choice that impacts the next few seasons. Also, I’m not in favor of a full tear down/rebuild Tom (although that may be the quickest path to consistent competitiveness) but rather I have embraced the idea of just riding it out this season. Then, no matter what, $52 mil comes off the books in Russ and Nunn, more if THT plays well enough to feel comfortable opting out (which I doubt in all honesty, he’d have to take steps forward on several fronts for that to happen IMO and we didn’t see any positive growth he could sustain after last summer). While neither imaginative or realistic in terms of shooting for a banner it is a sure-fire way to give the team all it’s spending tools (including the bi-annual exception) next summer. I think a worse option is W&S where we have a $15 million dollar handicap for the season’s we theoretically want to keep LBJ and AD happy. Same goes for a broken, impossible to trade player or two. Russ at least plays and he plays hard. The results are iffy but we’ve seen him able to positively affect a team that way in the past. So it won’t surprise me that the team that insists on living in the past does the same in regards to Russ. Would I do that as a GM? I don’t know, I’d want to see what Ham and Russ and Co. are working on in the lab and the fact remains that the trio barely played together. That’s probably enough to justify to many within the organization that running it back can work better. Title better? I’m not sure who could be imaginative enough to see that but then again the Rambii still have positions of power so that’s not an adjective I use to describe the Lakers these days.
I agree pretty much with your assessment of the league right now. Feels like something massive is due to break this summer with Dame, Harden, Simmons, Gobert, Beal. CP3, Ayton. We’re either going to see the wildest summer ever or a big dud like the last two trade deadlines. Then your prediction of a massive trade deadline could happen.
Watching my Yankees dominate right now and hoping our Lakers could somehow get back to the top of the hill somehow. My best guess is it’s going to take two seasons and another Pau Gasol trade before the Lakers have a chance to do what my Yankees are doing right now. Overall, Darvin Ham may be the best move we make this summer and a real reason to be optimistic going forward.