The Denver Nuggets’ Title Defense Is Showing Early Cracks

The Denver Nuggets’ Title Defense Is Showing Early Cracks https://t.co/Hpif2TVJmr

— LakerTom (@LakerTom) April 29, 2024

It’s not that Denver finally dropped a game to L.A. It’s that the Nuggets haven’t looked quite like themselves, Jamal Murray’s health is uncertain, and their Western Conference challengers have been even more dominant than expected.

One loss should never be the sole reason for panic in the postseason. The NBA structures its playoffs with best-of-seven series for a reason, so no matter how ugly or underwhelming or disheartening, one loss in isolation is never truly a disaster—especially when the losing team is already up 3-0 in the series, and potentially not as engaged in completing the sweep in Game 4.

So the Denver Nuggets shouldn’t be concerned because the Los Angeles Lakers finally beat them in one game, avoiding another sweep with a home win on Saturday night. Even the most lopsided rivalry in the modern NBA will produce an upset on occasion, and the Nuggets should still advance to the conference semifinals this week without breaking much more of a sweat.

But the Nuggets should be concerned because of the larger nature of their series against the Lakers, which has revealed problematic cracks in their title defense. The reigning champs aren’t just seeking the second championship in franchise history; they’re also attempting to cement their legacy as the defining team of an entire era of basketball, and their star’s legacy as a top-10 player in league history.

And yet, even with a 3-1 lead, developments both in the Nuggets-Lakers series and the rest of the Western Conference playoff field should give the Nuggets and their fans reason for some pause. Last season, Denver coasted to the title without ever facing major adversity, posting a 16-4 playoff record and never trailing in a series. This season’s path isn’t looking so smooth.

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But the Nuggets’ unlucky shooting can’t excuse their unimpressive first-round point differential, because the Lakers are making only 26 percent of their wide-open 3s. If the Nuggets offense (which ranks only eighth in playoff efficiency despite facing a below-average Lakers defense) is destined to improve as open shots start falling, then the Nuggets defense (which ranks fifth in playoff efficiency) is destined to start sliding for the same reason.

Perhaps the strangest part of Denver’s muted margin in the first round is that it’s not a result of being crushed in the non-Jokic minutes, as is typically the case whenever the team struggles for any length of time. Denver has a plus-4.3 net rating when Jokic is on the court in the first round and a minus-1.9 net rating without him; that 6.2-point on/off difference pales in comparison to the 20.4-point difference they posted in the regular season.

The Nuggets’ preferred non-Jokic configuration, with Gordon at center, has actually held up just fine. The problem, instead, is that the team’s vaunted starting lineup has only been pretty good (plus-6.6 net rating) in a limited playoff sample, rather than spectacular (plus-13.6 in the regular season, plus-9.4 last postseason).

The most generous interpretation of all these facts is that the Nuggets are to some extent playing with their food; they know what it takes to win in the playoffs and they won’t overexert themselves early, especially against a team they know they can beat, and even more so after ripping out the Lakers’ hearts with the dramatic comeback in Game 2.

But at the same time that the 57-win Nuggets are doing just enough to win, the 57-win Thunder are steamrolling the Zion-less Pelicans, on pace for a potential sweep on Monday. And the 56-win Timberwolves didn’t just beat the Suns, but utterly eviscerated them in a sweep of their own.

And Denver will probably have to beat both of these high-quality opponents to return to the Finals. Minnesota is waiting in the second round with a roster built to combat Denver’s size, and a star, in Anthony Edwards, who will happily go mano a mano with Murray on the perimeter. And Oklahoma City—which is smaller but went 3-1 against Denver this season—is a favorite to reach the conference finals out of the other half of the Western bracket, in part because the Thunder should enjoy a hearty rest advantage in the second round over whichever team emerges from the Clippers-Mavericks tug-of-war.

Reflecting popular consensus, betting markets say the Nuggets remain heavy favorites to reach the Finals; FanDuel odds as of Monday morning say Denver is a more likely conference winner than Minnesota and Oklahoma City combined. But statistical models, from Basketball-Reference to ESPN to The Ringer, aren’t so convinced. That dichotomy makes sense, when examining the first half of the first round: On the surface, the Nuggets’ title defense looks fine, but under the hood, everything isn’t running as smoothly as expected for a top-tier contender with championship ambitions.