Montrezl Harrell

Crazy as it may seem, there are signs Frank Vogel may actually decide to go with a 12-player rotation for the playoffs that will include four different players getting minutes at the center position depending on matchups.

While most teams narrow their playoff rotations to just 8 or 9 players, the Lakers appear to be poised to do the exact opposite to take advantage of the great depth and versatility of their roster by actively including 12 players. The reasons Vogel might decide to take this approach include wanting to keep everybody on the team engaged and ready to contribute, maintain maximum matchup flexibility, and keep his future rotation options open.

While going with a 12-man rotation may seem extreme, the uncertainty about whom to play is really limited to just the center position, where the recent signing of Andre Drummond has created a severe minutes crunch. Vogel firmly believes the Lakers are going to need Drummond, Harrell, and Gasol well as Anthony Davis at the five during these playoffs. The challenge is fitting four players who averaged 80 minutes per game into 48 minutes.

The solution is likely narrowing the 12-man rotation for each playoff series based on the matchups. While Davis will close games at the five, who plays center for the first three and half quarters will depend on the matchups.

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THE CORE 12-MAN ROTATION

Here’s a chart showing the Lakers core 12-man rotation with Gasol starting and Davis closing halves and each of the Lakers’ centers playing 12 minutes per game although the actual minutes distribution would vary each series.

For example, the Lakers best center rotation option to defend against the Nuggets’ stretch fives Jokic and Green is going to be different than the rotation versus the Jazz’s traditional low post centers Gobert and Favors. Frank Vogel might opt to use Drummond’s and Harrell’s mobility to defend the Nuggets’ stretch fives Jokic and Green but play the Lakers’ stretch fives Gasol and Davis to pull the Jazz’s Gobert and Favors out of the paint.

It’s even possible Vogel might opt to play all four centers in the first game of each series to see who matches up best against the opposing team’s centers and then adjusting who plays center the rest of the series on the matchups. This would give each center an opportunity to show the coaching staff he deserved to play the rest of the series. It’s almost the same blueprint Frank used during last year’s playoffs, although with am extremely short leash.

Now that LeBron James and Anthony Davis are both back on the court, the Lakers need to figure out whether Andre Drummond is a good fit alongside LeBron and Ad and whether he can be the starting center in the playoffs.

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THE BEST 9-MAN ROTATION

Here’s a chart showing the Lakers core 9-man rotation with Gasol starting and Davis closing halves at center, Drummond covering the remaining minutes, and Horton-Tucker, Morris, and Harrell being out of the rotation.

With the 9-man rotation, the Lakers should still start each half with Marc Gasol and close each half with Anthony Davis at the 5 to stretch defenses, make it harder to double, and open up lanes for LeBron and AD to attack. Drummond is a better center option off the bench than Harrell because he offers more rim protection, scoring, and rebounding though Vogel will likely start Drummond and play Gasol in the middle of the half.

Narrowing the rest of the rotation is fairly easy. Caruso takes over Horton-Tucker’s minutes because his defense and 3-point shooting is better while Kuzma takes over Morris’ minutes because of his versatility and shooting. There could be matchups where Horton-Tucker’s ability to get to the rim and make plays for teammates become more important. There could also be matchups where Morris’ bulk and low post defense trump Kuzma’s skillset.

The above 9-man rotation makes it easy for the Lakers to make adjustments based on specific matchups in each playoff series or on how specific players are performing. The rotation is just a starting template for who plays when.

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Right now, Vogel has to stop the incessant experimenting. There is nothing that can be gained from that at this point. The only viable route forward is to decide who’s going to play and then give them the opportunity to develop. Narrowing the rotation down to 9 players would at least provide the Lakers with a needed opportunity to get some game and practice time in and hopefully create some cohesion and chemistry before the playoffs start.

At this point, it doesn’t matter where the Lakers end up as far as seeding goes, even if that means having to win in the Play-In Tournament. All that matters is LeBron and AD being healthy and deciding upon a rotation. Injuries to superstars, questionable personnel moves in the offseason, an ill-advised refusal to trade for Kyle Lowry at the deadline, and coaching indecisiveness have made repeating as champions an improbable long shot.

The best the Lakers can hope for is LeBron James and Anthony Davis getting their games together once we get into the playoffs and a narrowed rotation stepping up and pulling off a miraculous finish to win the championship.

Is there anybody out there who still believes the Los Angeles Lakers are going to repeat as NBA champions this season with Andre Drummond, Marc Gasol, or Montrezl Harrell starting and closing games at center?

The bad news is the grand plan to upgrade the center position so Anthony Davis could play his preferred power forward position full time has been a failure and should force the Lakers to rethink their playoff plans at center. The good news is the Lakers still have the best two-way center in the NBA in 28-year old 6′ 10,” 253 lb Anthony Davis who can dominate offensively and defensively in the paint, from midrange, or beyond the 3-point line.

It’s time for the Lakers to admit they need Anthony Davis to repeat his role from last year’s playoffs and devote half of his 36 minutes per game playing center rather than relying on Drummond, Gasol, and Harrell to play the five. The plan could have worked if the Lakers had traded for an elite center like Myles Turner, Chris Boucher, or Christian Wood last offseason but not with Rent-a-Centers like Andre Drummond, Marc Gasol, or Montrezl Harrell.

Sticking with the Drummond and Harrell center rotation in the playoffs would be a mistake. Both pack the paint and make it difficult for LeBron and AD to get to the rim. Both are subpar shot blockers and poor rim protectors. Frank Vogel needs to realize starting Andre Drummond vs. the Nugget’s Nikola Jokic in the first round or the Jazz’ Rudy Gobert in the second round of the playoffs would be playing right into the Denver’s and Utah’s hands.

Anthony Davis is the only center the Lakers have who can match up with Nikola Jokic and play Rudy Gobert off the court by pulling him out of the paint. The Lakers should start and finish playoff games with AD at center. The Lakers are better at both ends with Anthony Davis at the five as they proved in last year’s playoffs with their 5-out sets opening up the floor on offense and their trapping and rotating defense suffocating offenses.

Frank Vogel and the Lakers know the recipe for the Lakers winning in the playoffs is starting and closing with Anthony Davis at center. Like last year, the Lakers need to plan on AD playing at least half of his minutes at the five. Assuming he plays 36 minutes per game like last playoffs, Davis could play center 18 minutes per game or the first and last 4 to 5 minutes of each half, leaving the remaining 30 minutes to be split between the other centers.

Starting and closing games with a ‘small ball’ lineup of Davis, Morris, James, Caldwell-Pope, and Schroder allows the Lakers to create space by spreading the floor on offense and trap, switch and rotate on defense like last year. One of the problems with the 3-headed center the Lakers used this season to limit Davis from having to play big minutes at the five is he’s only played 7 minutes per game at center, which could hurt us in the playoffs.

While it’s easy to understand why the Lakers would like to minimize AD’s minutes at the five, Vogel also needs to realize that Drummond, Gasol, and Harrell are not going to be favorable match ups in the playoffs this year. Davis had no problem playing half his minutes at center last playoffs. He should be well rested and ready to do the same in this year. It would be a huge mistake for the Lakers to try to rely on anybody but Davis at center.

Heading into the playoffs, the Lakers need to start and close halves and games with their best center. If AD plays 18 of his 36 minutes per game at center, there would still be 30 minutes for Drummond, Gasol, and Harrell. The Lakers should spend valuable minutes these last 11 games playing small ball lineups with Davis at the five and Morris or even James at the four to get ready for the playoffs rather than devoting that time to the Rent-a-Centers.

While I expect Vogel to continue to try and start games with Drummond and to play all three centers in the playoffs, I expect to see a repeat of last year’s playoffs when McGee and Harrell became unplayable and were benched. Hopefully, Frank will be as decisive and proactive as he was in last year’s playoffs and he’ll make similar moves for Anthony Davis to take over the center position both as the starter and closer once we’re in the playoffs.

The path to this year’s NBA championship is going to be one of the toughest in years and the Lakers will need to be better than last year to repeat. The only way they can do that is to prioritize Anthony Davis at the five.