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How Mega Trade With Pacers Could Power Lakers Repeat as Champions!

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In the wake of the 2020 Championship and the stifling reality of a pandemic afflicted 2021 season, the pieces are there for a potential blockbuster trade just waiting to be made between the Indiana Pacers and Los Angeles Lakers.

The Lakers need a stud guard to be their third superstar to complement LeBron James and Anthony Davis in their quest for more championships and then to take the baton from LeBron when he retires as Davis’ co-superstar. They also need a true modern center whose 3-point shooting can stretch defenses and create spacing to free up James and Davis while protecting the rim and defending the perimeter to allow Anthony Davis to play the four.

The Pacers need to move on from both Victor Oladipo and Myles Turner this offseason as neither play key roles in their future plans. Oladipo wants a max contract he’s not going to get and Turner’s been supplanted by Sabonis. Waiting to move Oladipo will only further diminish what they could get in return as trading for him at the deadline will only yield rental value while keeping Turner will only stifle Sabonis’ emergence as the team’s future.

The Lakers are willing to risk swinging to hit a home run while the Pacers would prefer to patiently wait out the pandemic so there’s a middle ground where both teams can get want they want in a blockbuster trade.

WHAT ARE THE TERMS OF THE PROPOSED TRADE?

Ironically, the more coveted player in the trade is the Pacer’s undervalued center Myles Turner and not guard Victor Oladipo, whose lingering injury and looming free agent status have dramatically lowered his trade value. Considering there’s more interest in Turner rather than Oladipo, it makes sense to break the mega trade down into two separate trades to better be able to judge the merits of the specific offers for each of the Pacers’ players.

Rumors have suggested a Myles Turner trade could even yield the Pacers a borderline star like Gordon Hayward from the Boston Celtics or Andrew Wiggins and the second pick in the draft from the Golden State Warriors. While Hayward’s dubious injury history and Wiggin’s specious resume raise major questions, there’s no doubt that there’s serious interest in trading for Myles Turner by several of the Lakers’ major competitors in the NBA.

That’s why the Lakers are going to have make an offer that includes players whom they would normally consider untouchable in trade discussions if they have any hope of interesting the Pacers in trading Turner and Oladipo.

Here’s the proposed trade for Pacers’ center Myles Turner:

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Here’s the proposed trade for Pacers’ guard Victor Oladipo:

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WHY WOULD THE LAKERS AGREE TO THE TRADE?

There will be a large number of Lakers’ fans who will understandably be dead set against trading Caldwell-Pope and Caruso, two of the team’s top contributors responsible for the team winning their 17th championship. Realistically, the Lakers cannot expect to trade for two impact players like Turner and Oladipo, who could transform the team into a juggernaut, without giving up serious talent in return. That’s what trades are all about.

The centerpiece in the trade is 24-year old Myles Turner, who would give the Lakers a true modern center to provide 3-point shooting and spacing on offense and rim protection and perimeter speed and quickness on defense. Turner’s a proven 3-point shooter and elite shot blocker, who would be the Lakers’ starting center, replacing traditional low post centers JaVale McGee and Dwight Howard and allowing Anthony Davis to play power forward.

Trading for Oladipo is a gamble that he’ll recover completely to return to be the player he was before the injury and will re-sign with the Lakers but the risk is worth the reward as he could be the superstar guard the Lakers need. Victor is only 28-years old and a former 3rd team All-NBA and 1st team All-Defensive player. That’s the the kind of storied resume that enticed the Lakers to sign Avery Bradley, Rajon Rondo, and Dwight Howard.

Imagine Turner and Oladipo replacing McGee and Green next season and the Lakers starting a lineup that would be taller, longer, faster, quicker, and more mobile and athletic at both ends of the court than last year’s squad. Turner and Oladipo would fill the Lakers’ needs for a third scorer, second playmaker, wing defender, and modern center and their version of ‘small ball’ that dominated the playoffs would become their ‘48-minutes’ lineup.

WHY WOULD THE PACERS AGREE TO THE TRADE?

The Pacers have a new coach in Nate Bjorkgren and are on a new course that does not include Myles Turner, who has unfortunately been supplanted by Domantas Sabonis, or Victor Oladipo, who looking to sign a max contract. While the Pacers should receive attractive offers for Turner, Oladipo’s trade value has cratered due to his lackluster play after returning from injury and his looming free agency and continued demand for a max contract.

While Myles Turner has been a mainstay of the Pacers defense, he’s struggled to be productive when paired on the court with Sabonis, who has become the star around whom Indiana is planning on building their team. That’s become common knowledge around the league resulting in Turner becoming a coveted trade target, which is why the Lakers are willing to offer two of their top role players in Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Alex Caruso.

The Victor Oladipo side of the trade also gives the Pacers great young talent to help them compete for a playoff spot while rebuilding by adding talented Kyle Kuzma, veteran Danny Green, and the Lakers 2020 first round pick. That’s more than any of the trades being proposed in the media for Oladipo and guarantees the Pacers won’t end up losing him at the trade deadline as a short term rental or next offseason for nothing as a free agent.

Imagine a Pacers’ starting lineup with Brogdon, Caldwell-Pope, Warren, Kuzma, and Sabonis that is better offensively and defensively and a deeper and more diverse bench with Caruso, Green, Holiday, Leaf, and McGee. Pacers’ new head coach Bjorkgren will be able to focus on a set roster with elite young defenders like KCP, Kuzma, and Caruso and veteran leaders and mentors like Green and McGee to help build a strong culture and chemistry.

WHAT ARE THE CHANCES THE TRADE HAPPENS?

Mega trades are always difficult to predict, especially with coronavirus pandemic still raging and the coming offseason and next season slated to be shorter than normal with unprecedented conditions and expectations. Chances are likely small market teams like the Pacers will be seeking to slash expenses by trading Myle Turner to get out of the 3-years left on his contract and Victor Oladipo to avoid having to give him a new max contract.

So the question is not whether the Indiana Pacers are going to trade Turner and Oladipo but what they’re going to be able to get in return for them in a difficult market where there are likely to be a lot more sellers than buyers. The willingness of the Lakers to actually include two of their championship core in Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Alex Caruso is also no sure thing. While neither is a legitimate star player, they are proven elite role players.

When you add Kuzma, Mcgee, Green, and a 2020 first round pick, the Lakers’ offer is a substantive offer and the trade machine projections predict the Pacers will end up with a net gain of 15 wins if they complete the trade. Alternatively, adding a modern center like Turner and healthy superstar like Oladipo could transform the Lakers into a championship dynasty. That raises the possibility this trade could be one of those rare win-win trades.

How Lakers Can Re-Sign Their Top Free Agents and Still Upgrade Roster

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With the salary cap likely to remain flat for next season, it’s going to take creative cap management for the Lakers to re-sign all five of their core free agents and still be able to sign other free agents to upgrade their roster.

While the Lakers would like another reliable scorer, capable playmaker, elite wing defender, or stretch big, they also need to re-sign their own five top free agents to maintain their continuity and win another NBA championship. While Davis is a lock to re-sign a $32.7 million max contract, the Lakers will face a challenge re-signing Caldwell-Pope, Rondo, Morris, and Howard, all of whom will be highly coveted free agents deserving of pay raises.

Since the Lakers are over the cap but below the tax threshold, they will not have cap space to spend on free agents and will have to rely on salary cap exceptions to re-sign their own free agents plus other teams’ free agents. That means the Lakers will be forced to choose between two options with different advantages and disadvantages to sign free agents this offseason. For simplicity, we’ll call the two options the soft cap and hard cap.

If the Lakers choose the soft cap, they can use their Bird rights to re-sign AD, KCP, and Rondo and give them maximum raises but will only have $5.7 million to re-sign Morris and Howard as well as other teams’ free agents. This means the Lakers can pay AD or KCP as much as $32.7 million and Rondo as much as $10.1 million but will only have $5.7 million left to keep Morris and Howard and upgrade their roster with other free agents.

The soft cap is the conservative option since it would allow the Lakers to go over the cap to pay Davis and Caldwell-Pope whatever they need to up to $32.7 million and pay Rondo as much as $10.1 million for the next season. While the Lakers would have no problem paying AD the $32.7 million max salary, they only need to give KCP a raise to $11 million, and Rondo a raise to $6 million to pay them more than what competing teams will likely offer.

That means the Lakers should be able to limit the raises they give AD, KCP, and Rondo to $3.9 million, $2.5 million, and $3.3 million respectively for a total of $9.7 million, which is not enough to justify choosing the soft cap. More problematic is the $5.6 million taxpayer MLE is not enough to re-sign Morris and Howard and upgrade the roster with a key free agent, which means not being able to field a better team to defend their championship.

But if the Lakers choose the hard cap, they’ll have up to $12.9 million to sign Morris, Howard, and other free agents but will be limited to a hard cap limit of $138.9 million for all their player salaries, including AD, KCP, and Rondo. With $119.5 million in current salaries, the Lakers will have $19.4 million available, which by coincidence will leave $9.7 million for Morris, Howard, and other free agents after $9.7 million in raises for AD, KCP, and Rondo.

The Lakers can still make another roster move to increase the $9.7 million for Morris, Howard, and other free agents to $12.4 million by waiving and stretching the guaranteed $1 million of Quinn Cook’s $3 million contract. That will get them close to being able to utilize the full $12.9 million that is available in the form of the $9.3 million non-taxpayer MLE and the $3.6 million BAE allowable to teams who choose the hard cap option.

That $12.4 million should enable the Lakers to keep Morris and Howard in addition to AD, KCP, and Rondo as well as being able to add one or two key free agents from other teams to significantly upgrade next season’s roster. The other advantage the hard cap allows is sign-and-trades, which could enable the Lakers to pursue free agents like Fred VanVleet, Christian Wood, and Maurice Harkless who will demand higher offers than the MLE.

Unless the NBA surprises everybody and raises the salary cap, the Lakers will be forced to become hard capped if they want to re-sign their key free agents and build a better team to defend their championship next season.

What’s the Lakers’ Ceiling in a Sign- and-Trade Deal for Christian Wood?

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With Anthony Davis committing to re-signing with the Los Angeles Lakers, Christian Wood becomes the preeminent free agent big man this offseason, which means there’s a good chance there will be a bidding war to land him.

While some free agent pundits established Wood’s market value around $10 million per year, other analysts have suggested he could command as much as $15 to $17 million per year based on his breakout year with the Pistons. Right now, there are six NBA teams who currently have the cap space to make an offer that high for Christian Wood: the Atlanta Hawks, New York Knicks, Detroit Pistons, Charlotte Hornets, Miami Heat, and Phoenix Suns.

But other NBA teams could also make roster moves to create the cap space to add their names to the list and teams like the Lakers without cap space could expand the competition by proposing sign-and-trade offers for Wood. If the Lakers are serious about trading for Wood, the two big questions are who will be their competitors for him and what should be their ceiling in terms of dollars and assets offered when it comes to consummating a deal?

One thing that still haunts me is how Wood has the same unique skill set to play offense and defense at all three levels like Davis, which also makes him exactly the type of player teams need to match AD at both ends of the court. Davis’ ascension as a unicorn and the best big man in the game today has not gone unnoticed by the rest of the NBA. League GM’s now know the road to the NBA championship now runs through the Lakers and Anthony Davis.

We know the Celtics and Warriors have expressed interest in trading for the Pacers Myles Turner, whose another modern center who can protect the rim and defend in space on the perimeter. Perfect defender for Anthony Davis. Christian Wood falls into the same category and the Lakers should pursue him both to create a juggernaut team and prevent competitors from adding a player to counter the ultimate weapon they have in Anthony Davis.

Players like Christian Wood and Myles Turner are going to ignite an arms race between the elite teams looking for an answer for Anthony Davis and a way to derail what they fear will be another Lakers’ championship dynasty. The Lakers’ likely competition for Christian Wood is not going to come from the Hawks, Nicks, Pistons, and Suns; it’s going to come from teams looking for ways to pass the Lakers: the Heat, Clippers, Warriors, Celtics, and Bucks.

Unfortunately, that levels the playing field to acquire Wood more than if it were just a contest betweens teams offering only the MLE or money instead of an opportunity to win but the Lakers still have one significant advantage. They are the NBA Champions and Christian would be joining the team with the best two players in the world and a better opportunity to win a ring. The only question is how much would the Lakers be willing to pay to sign him?

Besides first year salary, the Lakers need to offer Wood a three-year deal so they will have his Bird rights and be able to go over the cap to keep him once the contract expires, which means compromising their 2021 plans. Since the Lakers will still want to have the option to pursue a third superstar after next season, they need to make sure Wood and his contract are easily tradable if necessary to create cap space to sign that superstar in 2021.

The maximum contract the Lakers should offer Christian Wood is a three-year $45 million deal starting at $15 million per year. Combined with a chance to win a championship, that should be an offer he just can’t refuse. Other teams could offer a few million more but the chance to join the champs and play with LeBron and AD in L.A. should be irresistible for a 25-year old who played for 4 teams in 5 years with a top salary of $1.6 million.

Assuming the Lakers can come to an agreement with Christian Wood on a contract, all that remains is working out an acceptable sign-and-trade deal the Detroit Pistons will accept as equitable compensation for trading him. The obvious centerpiece to the sign-and-trade deal is Lakers forward and Flint, Michigan native Kyle Kuzma, about whom the Lakers and Pistons had already had trade discussions before the trade deadline last winter.

The Pistons are in a difficult position. They would love to re-sign Wood and have the cap space to do it but he has announced that he’s going to leave via Instagram and they don’t want to lose him in free agency for nothing. While they Pistons have over $30 million in cap space, Detroit is not a top destination for free agents, which makes using their cap space to take on salary in a sign-and-trade a resourceful strategy to acquire quality players.

With Wood having agreed to a contract with the Lakers eliminating other potential trade partners, the Pistons would still have leverage knowing the Lakers don’t have cap space and need Detroit to agree to a sign-and-trade. But an offer from the Lakers of Kyle Kuzma, Danny Green, JaVale McGee, Quinn Cook, and their 2020 first round pick should give the Pistons more than fair compensation for agreeing to sign-and-trade Christian Wood.

The drawback for the Lakers adding a player via a sign-and-trade deal is it would limit their total payroll costs for the 2021 season to a hard cap of $138.9 million, meaning the Lakers could not exceed that for any reason. Right now, the Lakers have committed $119.6 million to 11 players in 2021. Bradley and McGee are not expected to exercise their player options but Davis, Caldwell-Pope, and Rondo are expected to opt out looking for raises.

Assuming the Lakers re-sign AD to a 1+1 max contract for $32.7 million and give both KCP and Rondo raises to $12 and $6 million using their Bird and Early Bird rights, they would then have $130.3 million committed for 2021. That would leave they with just $8.6 million left to add 4 more players to their roster, making it impossible to use the full $9.6 million MLE and challenging to use the $3.6 million BAE or even sign their first round pick.

But a sign-and-trade of Kuzma, Green, McGee, and Cook’s $26.1 million for Wood’s $15 million would free up $11.1 million in cap space and give the Lakers $119.2 million in salaries for 2021, $19.7 million under the hard cap. That would enable the Lakers to pursue free agents like Dragic, Gallinari, Harkness, and Baynes with their MLE, re-sign Morris or Howard with their BAE, and add other minimum salary players like Cousins or Dudley.

A sign-and-trade between the Detroit Pistons and the Los Angeles Lakers of Christian Wood for Kyle Kuzma, Danny Green, JaVale McGee, Quinn Cook, and the 28th pick in the 2020 NBA draft should be a win-win for both teams. The Lakers get a player who could transform their team and clear cap space to give raises to AD, KCP, and Rondo and use their MLE and BAE to further upgrade their roster despite being limited by the $138.9 million hard cap.

Detroit avoids losing a player who could have left in free agency and, instead of nothing, receives four championship-tested players they could not have attracted in free agency plus a first round draft pick from a sign-and-trade. The Pistons get the home town star they wanted in Kuzma, two quality defenders who are great roster fits in Green and McGee, a deadeye shooter whose contract is only partially guaranteed in Cook, and a first round pick.

While deals proposed by bloggers never happen, the approach outlined is a perfect blueprint for how the Lakers can take advantage of a trade or sign-and-trade to acquire a high impact player while increasing their cap space. The Lakers will need to figure out how to navigate a hard cap to reward key contributors like KCP and Rondo, use their full non-taxpayer MLE or BAE to upgrade the roster, or go after an elite prospect via a sign-and-trade.

Why Christian Wood Should Be the Lakers’ Top Priority in Free Agency!

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I think it’s a question of whether he starts and plays starter minutes versus just being part of the rotation as a 7th or 8th man. Considering how good Talen is playing at 20, he’s going to be a game changer when it comes to the Lakers roster and rotations.

If he grows enough to be a starter, that opens up great opportunities for the Lakers going forward. He opens the door for the Lakers to put together a trade package that could include Schroder, KCP, and Kzma for a third superstar.

Of course, the grand prize is Talen becomes that third superstar. That’s what the Lakers believe is possible considering how great he is playing at just 20 years old. Imagine him two or three years from now. He’s like the Lakers getting a top five pick in the second round.

How Free Agency Could Help the Los Angeles Lakers Repeat as Champions!

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While the Lakers are over the salary cap, they still may be able to re-sign valuable free agent role players with raises as well as signing a free agent third scorer, second playmaker, elite wing defender, or modern center.

The Lakers will have to take advantage of league exceptions which allow teams to go over the cap when signing free agents, synchronized execution of the transactions, and opportunistic use of their MLE in a buyers’ market. The Lakers won’t be able to bring back every role player who contributed to their championship but should be able to re-sign the three most important and irreplaceable role players while giving them well deserved raises.

Those three role players are Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Rajon Rondo, and Markieff Morris, all of whom were invaluable contributors to the Lakers’ championship rotation and are essential to the team winning next season. KCP and Rondo are exercising their player options to become free agents while Morris will be a free agent when his 1-year minimum deal expires. The Lakers need to re-sign all three and give them well deserved raises.

Caldwell-Pope earned $8.1 million last season and could easily attract offers between $10 to $12 million as a free agent but the Lakers have his Bird rights and are allowed to go over the salary cap up to re-sign him. Kenny proved he was the team’s third best player and a key component of the offense and defense during the regular season and playoffs. The Lakers should reward him with a 2 or 3-year contract for $12 million per year.

Rondo earned $2.6 million last season and proved to be indispensable both as a floor general and playmaker in the playoffs, setting a record for the most assists from a player off the bench in the history of the NBA playoffs. Rajon should attract offers for taxpayers’ MLE, around $5 million next season. The Lakers have his Early Bird rights and should reward him with a 2-year contract for $6 million with the second year partially guaranteed.

Morris was a late addition replacing Avery Bradley before the season restart. As a power forward who could shoot from deep and defend, he was the catalyst that allowed Anthony Davis to play as center for the Lakers. Markieff earned $2.2 million last season but should receive offers of $3 to $4 million as a free agent. The Lakers should use their Bi-Annual Exception to re-sign him to a 2-year $3.6 per year million contract as he is a key player.

By using Bird rights to re-sign KCP, Early Bird rights to re-sign Rondo, and the Bi-Annual Exception to re-sign Morris, the Laker will have their full $9.3 million non-taxpayer Mid-Level Exception available to pursue free agents. With few teams having major cap space, the $9.3 million MLE and a chance to win a championship ring is likely to make the Lakers a major player for all but a half dozen elite free agents like Fred VanVleet or Davis Bertans.

The Lakers should have no problem filling roster needs with the MLE. How about Danilo Gallinari as their third scorer. Goran Dragic as their second playmaker, Mo Harkness as wing defender, or Aron Baynes as stretch big? There will only be five NBA teams with cap space to offer more to Gallinari, Dragic, Harkness, or Baynes than the Lakers and of those, only the Miami Heat had a winning record last season. The Lakers will get one of these.

Finally, the Lakers will end up with two or three roster spots to be filled by minimum salary veterans looking for an opportunity to win a championship ring or revitalize their career like Dwight Howard and Rajon Rondo did. Heading the list of players in this category will be DeMarcus Cousins, who spent all of last year on the Lakers’ active roster or working out at their facilities after they waived him to sign Markieff Morris before the restart.

So while the Lakers don’t have cap space this offseason, they’re still going to be major players in the free agent market and should be able to re-sign their key free agent role players as well as signing at least one major free agent.