Lonzo Ball

Does LeBron Injury Change What the Lakers Do Before the Trade Deadline?

March 21, 2021 By LakerTom 1 Comment

The Los Angeles Lakers got a brutal reminder of how one play could change the destiny of a team’s season when an ankle injury to LeBron James left the team facing the prospect of several weeks without their two superstars.

The good news is the both James and Davis should be recovered before the 2021 NBA Playoffs begin on May 22nd and the Lakers still have four days left to seek help via a trade or buyout before the March 23rd trade deadline. Before the injury, the media consensus was the Lakers were unlikely to make a major move but, with James’ and Davis’ return being unpredictable, there’s an emerging strong case for Rob Pelinka to be bold and think big.

Even healthy, the Lakers faced a tougher challenge to win the championship this season than they did in the bubble last season since the Jazz, 76ers, Suns, Nets, Clippers, and Bucks having improved their rosters over last year. With both superstars suffering major injuries that could linger into the playoffs, the Lakers desperately need help in the form of a star quality playmaker to run the offense and elite rim protector to anchor the defense.

The most optimistic projections would have Anthony Davis and LeBron James possibly returning in two to three weeks, which would still mean the 28–14 Lakers would have to play 7 to 11 games without their superstars. The worst case scenario would have Davis missing up to 4 weeks more and LeBron 8 weeks, leaving the Lakers fighting for playoff positioning and their two superstars fighting to get into shape the last 2 to 4 weeks of the season.

LeBron’s injury could have dire consequences for the Lakers’ playoff hopes. After tonight, the Lakers could own just a 2-game lead in the loss column over the 7th place Spurs and only 5 games over the 10th place Grizzlies. Anything other than a best case scenario could easily leave the Lakers having to participate in the 2-game win-or-go-home Play-In Tournament between the West’s 7th through 10th seeds just to get into the playoffs.

The Lakers have 30 games left in the regular season. In a best case scenario, they’ll only lose their superstars for 10 games and have 20 to make up ground. In a worst case scenario, those numbers could easily be reversed. Complicating the situation, James’ and Davis’ injuries are the kind where the Lakers won’t know when they’re ready to play until they’re ready, which could make it imperative for Rob Pelinka to make a big move right now.

The silver lining is LeBron’s injury has answered the question of whether the Lakers need to make major moves to improve their roster. Now the question becomes what are the specific moves the Lakers should make. Before LeBron’s injury, the Lakers’ major needs were high volume 3-point shooters and an elite rim protector. Now you can add a true point guard capable of creating quality shots for himself and teammates to the list.

While Myles Turner would be the ideal solution as a rim protector, the Lakers would be smart to save their trading chips for a playmaking volume 3-point shooter and get a Drummond or Whiteside via the buyout market. Until LeBron returns, the Lakers will desperately need somebody to replace his elite playmaking and volume 3-point shooting. Three available players who could fill that need are Kyle Lowry, Devonte Graham, and Lonzo Ball.

Lowry would be the perfect solution if the Raptors decide to move him. But Kyle makes $30.0 million and it would cost a package of Schroder, Harrell, and KCP, which is just too much for the undermanned Lakers to give up. Convincing the Hornets to give up Graham is also going to be difficult as he only makes $1.6 million per year, which makes it hard for Charlotte to get value in a trade. Best offer would be THT and a 2027 first round pick.

That leaves polarizing former Lakers’ point guard Lonzo Ball, who makes $11 million per year and will become a restricted free agent this summer, as the ideal trade target for Los Angeles to go after to cover for LeBron’s injury. Lonzo is averaging 14.2 point, 4.2 rebounds, and 5.6 assists in 31.7 minutes per game while shooting 42.5% from the field, 38.5% from deep on 7.8 threes per game, and a greatly improved 76.7% from the free throw line.

While Ball is polarizing for many Lakers fans, he’s the perfect point guard to pair with Dennis Schroder and has developed into an excellent 3&D guard who knows how to play off the ball alongside ball dominant star players. The Lakers might be able to trade Lonzo for a package of KCP and THT. A salary controlled KCP could be a great fit as the replacement for Bledsoe and Redick at shooting guard with THT’s elite potential as the sweetener.

A Lonzo Ball and Dennis Schroder starting backcourt with Drummond at center could be exactly what the Lakers need both in the short term until LeBron and AD return as well as in the playoffs when everybody’s healthy. The playmaking, volume 3-point shooting, and defensive switch-ability Lonzo brings would dramatically improve the Lakers starting lineup. As a bonus, trading for Lonzo would prevent him from joining the Clippers.

Rob Pelinka has a big challenge on his hands to make the right decisions to enable the Lakers to weather the short term without LeBron and AD while still making key moves to upgrade the team’s roster for the playoffs. Landing a quality playmaking point guard who’s also a volume 3-point shooter and good defender plus an elite rim protector who won’t get played off the floor in the playoffs is not going to be easy without giving up depth.

There’s no question LeBron’s unfortunate injury has dramatically changed everything. What Rob Pelinka and the Lakers decide to do the next four days could be critical to their chances of repeating as NBA champions.

Four Lakers Trades for High Volume, High Percentage 3-Point Shooters!

February 21, 2021 By LakerTom 13 Comments

There’s little doubt the Los Angeles Lakers’ Achilles heel on offense is their 3-point shooting. Despite a second best 22–9 record, the Lakers rank 26th in 3-point makes, 26th in 3-point takes, and 20th in 3-point percentage.

The only thing that’s saved the Lakers’ season from disaster is their top ranked defense, which has held their opponents to a league 4th fewest 3-point makes, 6th fewest 3-point takes, and 4th lowest 3-point percentage. Their elite 3-point defense has enabled them to win 11 of the 13 games where they made more than 10 threes, 3 of the 5 games where they made 10 threes, and 8 of the 13 games where they made less than 10 threes.

At the heart of the Lakers 3-point shooting problems is a lack of players who take and make a high volume of threes. Realistically, a team cannot create a 3-point differential unless it takes and makes more threes than it allows. The Utah Jazz, for example, take 10.8 and make 5.5 more threes than they allow. The Lakers, on the other hand, essentially just barely tread water, taking 2.1 and making 0.6 fewer threes per game than their opponents.

The reality is there isn’t room for the Lakers to fix their 3-point differential by improving their already excellent 3-point defense. Nor is simply shooting a higher percentage the answer. The only solution is to shoot more threes. Last night, they made a valiant effort to do exactly that, tying a season high 45 3-point attempts. The problem was they only made 13 of their threes for 28.9%, including a dismal 1 for 13 in the fourth quarter in a 96–94 loss.

The blueprint for winning with LeBron James has always been to surround him with high percentage, high volume 3-point shooters, Despite winning the championship last season, the Laker have failed to follow that blueprint. This season, the highest volume 3-point shooter on the Lakers is James himself, who’s 34th in the league at 6.7 threes per game. The next highest volume 3-point shooter is Kyle Kuzma, who’s 95th at 4.8 threes per game.

The Lakers’ 3-point shooting problems have unfortunately reached a panic level. Over the last 10 games, their 3-point shooting has just bottomed out, averaging only 8.7 makes out of just 29.8 takes for a league worst 29.2%. The time has come for Rob Pelinka and the Lakers’ front office to admit their lack of high percentage, high volume 3-point shooting has become the single biggest threat to the team’s hopes of repeating as NBA champions.

The Lakers need to prioritize trading for one or two quality high volume 3-point shooters who take more than 7 threes per game so they can increase the number of threes the team takes from 30.5 to the high 30’s per game. That should be Rob Pelinka’s primary focus over the next month. Trading for quality high volume 3-point shooters will be expensive but it’s the single biggest move the Lakers can make to improve their chances of repeating.

With that in mind, here are four proposed trades the Lakers could pursue before the March 24 trade deadline to upgrade the team’s offense with proven high percentage 3-point shooters who take 7 or 8 threes per game:

1. SCHRODER & CALDWELL-POPE FOR BALL & REDICK

This is a win-now gamble as the Lakers give up their low 3-point volume starting backcourt of Schroder and Caldwell-Pope for a controversial pair of high percentage, high volume 3-point shooters in Lonzo Ball and JJ Redick.

Ball has made 72 of 189 3-point shots this season for 38.1% while Redick has made 43 of 117 3-point shots for 36.8%. In contrast, Schroder has made 28 of 90 threes for 31.1% while KCP has made 40 of 97 threes for 41.2%. Ball and Redick in 25 games combined for 47 more made threes and 141 more points than Schroder and Caldwell-Pope. The trade would increase Lakers’ 3-point takes by 4.8, makes by 1.9, and points by 5.7 per game.

That’s exactly the kind of high volume 3-point production the Lakers need. The 22-year old 3&D Ball would immediately replace Schroder in the Lakers’ starting lineup while the 36-year old Redick would be a reserve. While Redick would provide short-term instant offense of the bench, the key to the trade is the controversial Ball, whose volume threes, defensive versatility, and elite outlet passing would be elite fits with Lebron and AD.

The trade would also be a win for the Pelicans, who’ve already committed to moving on from Ball and Ridick, as Schroder and Caldwell-Pope would be perfect complements alongside Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson.

2. SCHRODER, KCP, & HARRELL FOR LOWRY & BAYNES

This is another win-now trade where the Lakers cash in a trio of proven young players in Schroder, Caldwell-Pope, and Harrell for 34-year old All-Star point guard Kyle Lowry and 34-year old stretch center Aron Baynes.

Lowry has made 69 of 178 3-point shots this season for 38.8% while Baynes has struggled and only made 12 of 56 threes for 21.4% with Toronto this year. But Baynes has potential and the hope is he can shoot like last season. Playing for the Suns last year, Baynes had a career season and made 59 of 168 threes for 35.1%. A change in scenery could be what Baynes needs to become the modern stretch five the Lakers need to fill their center rotation.

Lowry and Baynes volume 3-point shooting could theoretically combine for 11.1 takes, 4.2 makes, and 12.6 points per game, almost double the 6.9 takes, 2.6 makes, and 7.8 points from Schroder, Caldwell-Pope, and Harrell. Like the trade for Ball and Redick, the trade for Lowry and Baynes increase Lakers’ 3-point takes by 4.2, makes by 1.6, and points by 4.8 per game, which is exactly the kind of volume 3-point shooting the Lakers need.

Lowry would immediately replace Schroder as the Lakers’ starting point guard and give the Lakers the third star to complement LeBron and AD while Baynes would replace Harrell coming off the bench as a stretch five. Like Ball , Lowry is the key to the trade. He’s having a great season and still looks like he could play at that level for another couple of seasons. If Baynes could return to last year’s form, he would be a perfect backup center.

The trade would also be a win for the Raptors, who’ve already talked about moving Lowry and Baynes, as Schroder, Caldwell-Pope, and Harrell would rejuvenate them three talented young players to enable them to compete.

3. HORTON-TUCKER FOR GRAHAM

The is another win-now trade where the Lakers give up 20-year old budding superstar Horton-Tucker in exchange for young high volume 25-year old point guard Graham who takes over 8 threes per game and shoots 34.7%.

A 3-year veteran, Devonte has made 70 of 202 threes this season for 34.7%. He is the 11th most prolific 3-point shooter in the league and is averaging 13.7 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 5.7 assists in 32.8 minutes per game. Graham takes 8.1 and makes 2.8 threes per game for 8.4 points. Horton-Tucker takes 1.8 and makes 0.5 threes per game. The trade would increase the Lakers’ 3-point takes by 6.3, makes by 2.3, and points by 6.9 per game.

Devonte Graham would immediately move into the starting point guard role with Dennis Schroder coming off the bench like he did in OKC or share starting point guard duties with Schroder in a double point guard scheme. Either way, Graham would give the Lakers needed volume 3-point shooting and a legitimate second point guard to reduce the playmaking load off of LeBron James and upgrade the team’s overall playmaking and shooting.

With LaMelo Ball now the Hornets’ point guard of the future Terry Rozier enjoying a career season, the Hornets can afford to move Devonte Graham to land a potential future superstar in 20-year old Talen Horton-Tucker.

4. CALDWELL-POPE & HORTON-TUCKER FOR BEASLEY

This is a win-now trade where the Lakers give up 28-year old proven vet Caldwell-Pope and 20-year old future star Horton-Tucker for 24-year old Beasley, a young high volume shooter who takes almost 9 threes per game.

Malik Beasley has made 106 of 260 3-point shots this season for 39.6%. In contrast, the veteran Caldwell-Pope has made 43 of 102 threes for 42.2% while the second year Horton-Tayler has made 13 of 48 threes for 27.1%. Beasley takes 8.7 and makes 3.4 threes per game for 10.2 points. KCP and THT take 5.6 and make 2.1 threes per game. The trade would increase the Lakers’ 3-point takes by 3.1, makes by 1.3, and points by 3.9 per game.

Beasley would immediately replace Caldwell-Pope as the Lakers’ starting shooting guard, giving the Lakers the high percentage, high volume 3-point shooter they need to stretch defenses and create spacing for LeBron and AD. While stats on winning and losing teams aren’t comparable, Beasley’s 20.7 points, 4.9 rebounds, 2.5 assists in 32.8 minutes per game would be an upgrade over KCP’s 8.6 points, 2.2 rebounds, 1.4 assists in 25.6 minutes.

The Timberwolves give up a great young player in Bealey but receive a championship proven young vet in KCP and a future superstar in the uber talented Horton-Tucker who would likely be a Lakers’ starter next season.

Lakers Need Volume 3-Point Shooting If They Hope to Repeat as Champions!

February 19, 2021 By LakerTom 8 Comments

The 3-point shooting revolution has taken a sudden change this year that threatens the Los Angeles Lakers’ chances of repeating as champions. The key metric to winning games has suddenly become the 3-point differential.

NBA teams are not only focusing on taking and making more threes than opponents but also on playing better perimeter defense to limit opponent takes and makes and to generate an insurmountable 3-point differential. Suddenly, the 3-point differential has become the preeminent box score stat that determines who wins the game. The modern blueprint for winning in today’s NBA is to outscore your opponent from beyond the 3-point line.

The surprise team leading the league right now are the 24–5 Utah Jazz, who have won 9 straight games and 19 of their last 20. The Jazz also boast the league’s top ranked 3-point differential of 5.6 threes and 16.8 points. The reason the Jazz have the best record in the league is simple. They’re not only making a league best 16.6 made threes per game on 39.3% shooting but also only allowing a league lowest 11.0 made threes per game.

NBA 3-POINT DIFFERENTIAL AS OF FEBRUARY 19, 2021

The Jazz even won the 3-point differential in the only game they lost of the last 20 games, hitting 20 of 47 threes for 42.6%. It took the Denver Nuggets hitting an incredible 18 for 28 threes for 64.3% to give the Jazz a rare loss. The league has been slow to give Quin Snyder and the Utah Jazz credit for being more than an early season surprise but the teams they’ve played understand their combination of 3-point offense and defense is daunting.

With Gobert protecting the rim freeing defenders to challenge threes and a cadre of dead eye shooters raining threes, the Jazz now have the 4th best offensive rating, 2nd best defensive rating, and best net rating in the league.

After making a change in defensive philosophy to prioritize defending the three over protecting the rim, the Lakers only allow 11.5 made threes per game, which is tied for the third fewest opponent threes in the league. Unfortunately, the Lakers only make 10.8 threes per game, 28th in the league, resulting in a negative 3-point differential: they allow 0.7 more threes and 2.1 points per game than they make, 18th out of 30 teams.

Alarmingly, the other three teams with the top four 3-point differentials are also teams the Lakers may end up facing on the road to the championship: the 2nd ranked Blazers, the 3rd ranked Nets, and the 4th ranked Clippers. The Portland Trail Blazers have a scary 3-point differential of 3.1 threes and 9.3 points, the Brooklyn Nets a differential of 2.6 threes and 7.8 points, and the Los Angeles Clippers a differential of 2.5 threes and 7.5 points.

What’s unnerving about the Lakers’ negative 3-point differential is there is limited room to improve defensively, which means the only way to close the gap is offensively, which may be impossible without major roster changes. Changes in the roster may be needed because the Lakers simply do not have the high volume 3-point shooters needed to increase the number of made threes and points generated to create a positive 3-point differential.

Right now, the closest the Lakers have to a high volume 3-point shooter is LeBron who’s taking 6.6 threes per game. Next in 3-point shot attempts are Kuzma with 3.7 per game, KCP with 3.7, Wes with 3.3, and Dennis with 3.1. None of these players, LeBron included, are legitimate volume 3-point shooters. Frankly, if the Lakers want to increase made threes and points, they’re going to need to change their roster and upgrade their offense.

Otherwise, they’re going to see more and more teams dominating them from deep like the Nets did last night, hitting 10 more threes for 30 more points. But they’re going to face a 3-point differentiaL gauntlet this year. The Jazz’ Mitchell and Clarson are averaging 8.7 and 8.6 threes per game, the Blazers’ Lillard and McCollum 10.8 and 11.0, the Nets’ Harden, Irving, and Harris 7.9, 6.8, and 6.6, the Clippers George and Leonard 7.9 and 4.9.

Last regular season, the Lakers took 31.6 threes per game and shot only 34.8%. They improved dramatically in the playoffs, taking 34.2 threes and shooting 35.4%. Defensively, they allowed 32.7 opponent threes per game. They made 12.1 threes and allowed 11.8 opponent threes in the playoffs, giving them a differential of 0.3 threes and 0.9 points. So it’s not impossible for the Lakers to win a championship with a low 3-point differential.

But the Lakers’ options are still limited. To start with, they need to make some basic changes in their offense to create more open threes and they need to encourage their players to take those shots when they’re available. Their 3-point attempts have declined over 10% the last 15 games. They took 31.9 threes per game the first 15 games but just 28.3 threes per game the last 15 games. While they’ve continued to win, the margin has gotten slim.

The Lakers best option is to look to move low 3-point volume starting guards Dennis Schroder and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope for a pair of high volume 3-point shooters to help improve their 3-point differential. Candidates the Lakers could target include Buddy Hield (10.3 3PG), Malik Beasley (8.7 3PG), Devonte Graham (8.1 3PG), Lonzo Ball (7.6 3PG), JJ Redick (4.6 3PG), Lauri Markkanen (7.2 3PG), Victor Oladipo (7.3 3PG).

The Lakers’ 3-point differential depends more on the volume than the percentage of threes made. While it’s not impossible for the Lakers to repeat as champions, their negative 3-point differential will make that difficult. The last thing they want is to play the four teams who have the best 3-point differentials in the league: Blazers in the first round, Clippers in the second round, Jazz in the conference finals, and then the Nets in the Finals.

The good news is the Lakers will have an opportunity at the trade deadline for moves to improve their rim protection and 3-point shooting. Let’s hope they recognize their negativer 3-point differential is their Achilles heel.

Could Blockbuster Trade Net Lakers Lonzo Ball, Josh Hart, Davis Bertans?

June 18, 2020 By LakerTom 1 Comment

There are more popular and obvious candidates to become the Los Angeles Lakers’ point guard of the future but none would be a better fit or more perfect complement to LeBron James and Anthony Davis than Lonzo Ball.

While he needs to be a better free throw shooter and pick-and-roll passer, there’s no young point guard who combines Lonzo’s physical size, defensive chops, playmaking skills, rebounding, 3-point shooting, and court savvy. While salary cap considerations required the Lakers to send Ball rather than Kuzma to the Pelicans in their trade for Anthony Davis last year, there’s a possibility the Lakers could bring Lonzo Ball back this coming offseason.

New Orleans wants to pull off a blockbuster trade for Bradley Beal this offseason to create a true superstar Big Three with Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson and transform the Pelicans into championship contenders. The problem is the Wizards are going to want more than just Jrue Holiday and pieces and picks as part of any mega trade with the Pelicans. They’re going to want Brandon Ingram or an equivalent package of young talent.

That’s where the Lakers could jump into the picture as a third team with front office relationships with the Pelicans and Wizards and trading chips that might be of interest to the Wizards to facilitate a blockbuster trade. While the Lakers lack the assets to acquire Beal, they have their first round pick and a talented pair of prospects the Wizards could be intrigued with based on their success with other young players acquired from the Lakers.

The proposed trade would have the Lakers sending veterans Rajon Rondo and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to the Pelicans and youngsters Kyle Kuzma and Talen Horton-Tucker plus 2020 first round pick rights to the Wizards. Conversely, the Pelicans would return guards Lonzo Ball and Josh Hart to the Lakers and send Jrue Holiday to the Wizards while Washington shipped 27-year old sharp-shooting small forward Davis Bertans to the Lakers.

While the Lakers’ main target in the proposed trade would be point guard Lonzo Ball, the opportunity to acquire elite sharp shooter Davis Bertans and valuable role player Josh Hart would be the key to LA making the deal. Several contract issues would need to be resolved for the transaction to happen, including Rondo and Caldwell-Pope not exercising player options and Bertans and the Lakers agreeing to a new contract since he’s an UFA.

The trade should prove to be a win-win deal for all three teams. The Lakers would upgrade their roster with a trio of talented young stars to fill their needs for a starting point guard and more depth while keeping their core. Lonzo Ball, Josh Hart, and Davis Bertans are all better three-point shooters and more versatile fits for the Lakers’ roster than youngsters Kyle Kuzma and Talen Horton-Tucker or vets Rajon Rondo or Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.

The Pelicans get the superstar guard they needed in Beal to go with future superstars Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson without having to give up their treasure chest of draft picks and young talent, most notably Ingram. The addition of quality vets Rajon Rondo and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope not only give them two players who can mentor and help their young players grow and develop but also give them some proven talent to win games now.

The Wizards could end up being the biggest winners of in the mega trade swap of Bradley Beal for Jrue Holiday as it will save them over $45 million in salaries because of the one less year and lower salaries due to Holiday. Those savings plus two promising young stars in Kyle Kuzma and Talen Horton-Tucker plus three first round picks fit perfectly with Washington’s need to start acquiring assets for the rebuild of the Wizard’s franchise.

Blockbuster trades rarely helps all the teams get better but this trade could transform the Lakers into a dynasty, catapult the Pelicans into a contender, and give the Wizards the young talent and draft picks for a great rebuild.