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Like Frank said, this is “the out-of-the-bubble, pandemic season,” which in a way is saying it’s another anomaly like the bubble, a variation from the normal regular season.
While the teams won’t be in a strict bubble like in Orlando, it’s not basketball as usual. It’s “a whole new game” and, like in the bubble, the Lakers frankly are the team best prepared to deal with the situation thanks to Rob Pelinka’s great offseason where the team added unprecedented depth and talent.
The overconfident Lakers’ furious fourth quarter rally ran out of gas and Jamal Murray’s clutch dagger three’s in the final 2:17 sealed a Game 3 win and saved the Denver Nuggets from going down 0–3 in the West Finals.
Nuggets’ players and fans may disagree with that assessment of where the Western Conference Finals stand but that’s what an objective comparison of the teams’ strengths and weaknesses and review of the game stats show. While the Nuggets deserve praise for hanging tough the last two games, the Lakers are still the better team with better superstars and a 2–1 lead in the series, despite how well Denver and their two superstars may have played.
All the Nuggets’ desperate win last night did was give them a brief reprieve to keep from going down 0–3. Tomorrow night, their backs are once again against the wall in another ‘must win’ game to keep from going down 1–3. Denver needs to win tomorrow night to keep this series alive because they know the odds of pulling off a third straight 1–3 comeback in these playoffs against a championship caliber Lakers team are close to impossible.
The cocky Lakers came into last night’s game with a 2–0 lead in the West Finals and the knowledge LeBron James is 17–0 when his team takes a 2–0 lead in a playoff series. Unfortunately, they forgot to bring their A-Game. The desperate Nuggets were the hungrier and more aggressive team, dominating the boards 53–34, winning the 3-point shootout by 15 points, making 9 more free throws, and building a 20-point fourth quarter lead.
With 10:24 left in the game, the Lakers came roaring back behind Rondo’s defense and LeBron’s offense and, in a stunning 4 minute 17 second burst, slashed the Nuggets’ 20-point lead to 3 points with 6:07 left on the clock. The game seesawed back and forth until, with just 2:17 left on the clock, Jamal Murray hit a dagger three to put the Nuggets up by 7 and then, with 53.3 seconds left, a second dagger three from 29 feet to seal the win.
Murray’s heroics, like Davis’ the game before, were the difference between winning and losing and the series now stands 2–1 in favor of the Lakers. The Nuggets can wish it were 2–1 in their favor but it could easily be 0–3. They dodged a bullet just like the Lakers did when Davis hit that game winning three. Bottom line, their backs are against the wall again tomorrow night when they must win or once again fall into that familiar 1–3 hole.
The problem the Nuggets face is the Lakers are unlikely to come out flat tomorrow night. The Lakers now know the Nuggets are capable of beating them and are going to come out treating the matchup like a close-out game. The Lakers know they let last night’s game get out of control and rallied too late. LeBron’s on a crusade to win his fourth NBA championship and AD’s going to be hungry to redeem his lackluster performance in Game 3.
The Lakers are going to come out looking to dominate the Nuggets early and coast to a wire-to-wire win. Here are the five reasons why the Lakers will win Game 4 and put the Denver Nuggets on the brink of elimination:
1. Playoff LeBron Will Emerge.
To be honest, the Lakers haven’t needed Playoff LeBron this postseason. However, last night’s loss and insinuations age and mileage are finally catching up with him are exactly what Lebron thrives on for motivation. James has only played 34.4 minutes per game in these playoffs, averaging just 25.9 points, 10.0 rebounds, and 8.8 assists. In the 2018 playoffs, he played 41.9 minutes and averaged 34.0 points, 9.1 boards, and 9.0 assists.
The Lakers are now in the stretch run. With two wins to the Finals and six wins to the championship, it’s time for Playoff LeBron to take over. Look for LeBron to play 40 minutes with a monster triple double in a Game 4 win.
2. Anthony Davis Will Redeem Himself.
While he had 27 points on 9–17 from the field and 9–10 from the line, AD had a disappointing Game 3, especially after his clutch game-winning buzzer-beating heroics to win Game 2. He has openly admitted as much. Davis was passive the entire game, only grabbed two rebounds, and was never a factor with the game on the line. He simply did not deliver a performance worthy of a top-five superstar and team’s second best player.
But Anthony will get an opportunity to redeem himself tomorrow night when the Lakers look to win Game 4, take a 3–1 series lead, and put Denver on the brink of elimination. AD needs to play 40 minutes and dominate.
3. Lakers Defense Will Dominate.
The Lakers had the third best defense during the regular season and have the fourth best defense in the playoffs. Their team identity is defense and they pride themselves on their ability to stop opposing teams’ superstars. They shut down Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum in the first round of the playoffs and James Harden and Russell Westbrook in the second round. They’re confident they can do the same to Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic.
L.A. may have found the defensive key in the fourth quarter last night as their zone held Denver to just 21 points with a 77.8 defensive rating. Look for Frank Vogel to use that zone to crank up the pressure in Game 4.
4. Lakers Will Control the Boards.
The Lakers are the bigger and better rebounding team, 9th in the regular season with 45.7 rebounds per game versus the Nuggets 20th with 44.1. In the playoffs, LA is 7th with 44.0 boards and Denver 13th with 41.4 boards. In the two games they won, the Lakers outrebounded the Nuggets 39 to 34. In the one game they lost, however, the Nuggets dominated the boards 53–34, which is why they were able to build a 20-point lead in the fourth.
One of the Lakers’ strengths as a team is their edge in size and athleticism, which usually translates into winning the rebounding battle. The Lakers will come out and impose their domination on the glass tomorrow night.
5. The Lakers Will Make their Threes.
When opposing teams pack the paint and dare the Lakers to shoot from deep, they need to make their threes to win. In the two games the Lakers won, they shot 38.7% from deep. In last night’s loss, they only shot 23.1%. In the ten playoff games the Lakers won, they shot 39.2% from deep. In the three games they lost, they only shot 22.9%. For the series, the Lakers have shot 34.1% from deep, just a notch below their 35.5% playoff average.
One of the Lakers’ vulnerabilities is their average 3-point shooting, which is why opponents try to clog the lane and force the Lakers to shoot from deep. Fortunately, the numbers strongly suggest the Lakers will make their threes.
No disrespect to LeBron James, who valiantly took the mantle from Kobe Bryant and carried this team through the most difficult and unprecedented season in the history of the NBA, but Anthony Davis is the Lakers’ future.
When AD’s game-winning buzzer-beating dagger-three splashed through the net, it was like the world stopped, the team’s legacy clock reset, and the era where Anthony Davis takes over as Lakers top superstar officially began. Out of respect, the Lakers will still be known as LeBron’s team like they had been known as Shaq’s team but the cognoscenti will know the moment had come when the team’s future depended on AD like it once did with Kobe.
Great as LeBron James is, the Lakers will only go as far as Anthony Davis can carry them. We saw hints of this throughout this long disjointed season and its harsh reality during the second half of last night’s Nuggets’ game. There will be games LeBron can still dominate just like there were with Shaq but the time has finally arrived when LeBron and the Lakers need to look to AD to close games like Shaq and the Lakers needed to look to Kobe.
While LeBron James is still the King and MVP of the regular season, it will likely be the ascent of Anthony Davis to Finals MVP and best player in the league that wins the Los Angeles Lakers their 17th NBA championship. That’s what this season, the Klutch Sports driven trade for AD, LeBron’s taking the baton from Kobe, and James’ respect and deference to empower Davis has all been about: winning championships and building a legacy.
This has been an unbelievably tough season for the Lakers with obstacles like the tragic death of Kobe Bryant, the five-month coronavirus layoff, and losing home court advantage to the bubble repeatedly blocking their way. But the basketball gods may finally be smiling on the Lakers as the bubble playoffs have eliminated the Bucks and Clippers, their main competitors, and cleared the road for Los Angeles to win its 17th NBA championship.
No disrespect to the Nuggets, Heat,or Celtics but this season is the Lakers’ best opportunity to win a championship with the Bucks and Clippers gone and the healthy Warriors and the new look Nets back in the mix next year. Who knows how long LeBron James can continue to cheat Father Time, what blockbuster moves franchises may make to create new superteams, or how long the coronavirus pandemic will devalue home court advantage.
When LeBron James joined the Lakers in free agency two summers ago, critics said he did it for family reasons. In retrospect, the decision was a calculated move to enhance his legacy and chances to become the GOAT. LeBron could play four more seasons after this, retire at 40-years old after his sixth season and maybe fourth championship as a Laker, and trump Michael Jordan as the GOAT with seven NBA championship rings.
No NBA superstar has ever had the career savvy and vision of LeBron to understand how combining his star power, the Lakers’ legacy, and AD’s talents could give him his best chance to surpass MJ to become the GOAT. That’s why he has deferred to AD and is willing to give him the opportunity to become Finals MVP and best player on the planet and even take a pay cut on his last contract with the Lakers. It’s all part of his master plan to win.
That clutch step-back dagger three at the buzzer by Anthony Davis not only positioned the team six games away from their 17th championship but also gave the rest of the NBA formal notice the Anthony Davis era had begun.
As we get ready to for Game 2 in the Western Conference Finals against the Denver Nuggets, one of the big questions to consider is who has been the Lakers’ third most valuable player so far in the NBA bubble playoffs?
After staying with essentially the same starting lineup most of the season, Lakers’ head coach Frank Vogel has made several major adjustments both to the starting lineups as well as his rotations since we started the playoffs. Before the playoffs, the talk was about the Lakers needing Kyle Kuzma to step up and be the team’s third star to be win a championship but now other players like Rajon Rondo and Dwight Howard have started to emerge.
It’s easy to say the Lakers’ third star is the open man or their elite defense but history tells us the team is more likely to need a key role player to emerge as the third most valuable player to win the NBA championship. Will that be a current starter like Kentavious Caldwell-Pope or Danny Green or a key reserve like Kyle Kuzma, Rajon Rondo, or Dwight Howard. At the halfway point, we’re starting to see who could be legitimate candidates.
To help you analyze those candidates, let’s look at how individual Lakers ranked according to the following key playoff player stats per NBA.com:
Net Rating, Plus/Minus, Points, Assists, Rebounds, Blocks, and Steals.
Net Rating Per Game
One of the key stats used to compare a player’s overall performance is Net Rating because it measures the difference between the player’s offensive and defensive rating. Danny Green’s net rating is best on the team and tops LeBron James and Anthony Davis, which makes him a serious candidate.
Plus/Minus Per Game
Plus/Minus is another stat analysts like to use to compare players as it measures how the team does when a player is on the floor and includes intangibles such as fit, chemistry, and things that don’t show up on the stat sheet. Danny Green’s third best plus/minus adds to his candidacy.
Points Per Game
There’s a case to be made that points per game is the best stat by which to measure who is the Lakers’ third most valuable playoff player. The Lakers do need a third consistent scorer to complement LeBron and AD. Kyle Kuzma being the team’s third best scorer makes him a top candidate.
Assists Per Game
Next to scoring, a second playmaker to play alongside and free up LeBron James from being the Lakers’ only facilitator and to run the offense when he rests is always near the top of the list of Lakers’ needs. Rajon Rondo’s elite playmaking, though only in three games, catapults him into contention.
Rebounds Per Game
As expected, LeBron James and Anthony Davis are the Lakers’ best two rebounders. Controlling the boards has always been a critical factor both aton the defensive and offensive glass for teams to win in the playoffs. Dwight Howard’s elite rebounding makes him a legitimate candidate.
Blocks Per Game
There’s truth in the axiom ‘defense wins championships’ and Frank Vogel’s defensive philosophy has always been defense starts inside-out with rim protection. The surprise is Dwight Howard not making the list but JaVale McGee should be added as a candidate because of his shot blocking.
Steals Per Game
Steals are often an underappreciated defensive stat but impact the team’s offense because they often lead to easy transition points on the offensive end. Rajon Rondo’s 2 steals per game in limited games and minutes should add to his candidacy as the Laker’s third most valuable playoff player.
Summary of Rankings
Here’s a recap of where each Lakers player finished as far as the playoff top five rankings for the seven statistical categories discussed above:
Obviously, the Lakers’ third most valuable playoff player should contribute in multiple areas like LeBron James and Anthony Davis have done. Per that criteria, the leading candidates so far are Rajon Rondo and Danny Green. We’re slightly past what hopefully is the halfway point in the Lakers’ quest to win the championship, so a lot can change as competition and pressure ramps up as we finish the Conference Finals and then the NBA Finals.
We’ll continue to track who’s performing as the team’s third most valuable player as the Lakers pursue the franchise’s 17th NBA championship and follow up at the end of the playoffs with a final article and award.
It was Playoff LeBron, Playoff AD, Playoff Rondo, and Playoff Dwight. The Lakers’ Four Playoff Superstars could have been the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse far as the helpless and hapless Denver Nuggets were concerned.
Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals was a masterpiece of playoff basketball orchestrated by a quartet of Lakers’ superstars, including two of the greatest playmaker-big man tandems from the NBA present and past. Representing the present were the 2020 First Team All-NBA playmaker and center duo of LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Representing the past were future HOF point guard and center Rajon Rondo and Dwight Howard.
Together, the Lakers’ Four Horsemen gave the upstart Nuggets a dose of reality, breaking the game open early in the second quarter with a 17–1 run and then finishing them off with an 11–2 burst early in the third quarter. Those two runs were triggered by the Lakers’ elite defense, which totally shut down Nuggets’ superstars Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray and held Denver to just 21 points in the second and 20 points in the third quarters.
The LeBron James and Anthony Davis starting superduo combined for 52 points, 16 rebounds, and 16 assists while the Rajon Rondo and Dwight Howard backup superduo contributed 24 points, 4 boards, and 9 dimes. With first half foul trouble and the game decided early, the Nuggets’ superstar duo of Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray only played 25 and 29 minutes and were held to a combined 42 points, 7 rebounds, and 7 assists
The Lakers as a team recorded 33 assists compared to 23 for the Nuggets. The Playoff LeBron and Playoff Rondo playmaker tandem contributed 21 of those assists, having a hand in 74 of the 126 total points the Lakers scored. Meanwhile, the Playoff AD and Playoff Dwight center duo posted 50 points and 13 rebounds, clearly outplaying the Denver center tandem of Nikola Jokic and Mason Plumlee, who had just 30 points and 10 rebounds.
The total domination by the Lakers’ Four Horsemen is reflected in their individual plus/minus ratings. LeBron James and Anthony Davis both posted +15 ratings while Rajon Rondo and Dwight Howard recorded +13 and +14. Since they led by as many as 27 points late in the third quarter, the Lakers were able to rest their stars in the fourth quarter. James only played 31 minutes, Davis only 33 , Rondo only 22 , and Howard only 16 minutes.
Game winning play like the Lakers showcased in the second and third quarters to put Game 1 away demand contributions from more than the superstars and the Lakers got great performances from their role players. Caldwell-Pope chipped in 18 points on 6–10 shooting and 3–5 threes, Kuzma added 11 points on 5–8 shooting and 1–2 threes, Morris 9 points on 3–4 from deep and elite defense, and Green 8 points and stellar defense.
While it’s just one game and the never-say-die Nuggets have proven their resilience by coming back twice in these playoffs from 1–3 deficits, these Lakers are clearly not the overachieving Thunder or choke prone Clippers. The Lakers are not only hitting on all cylinders and peaking at the right time, they’re also led by four sure-fire future HOF players who are on a quest seeking a championship and redemption in the eyes of their critics.
LeBron James is ‘pissed’ he only received 16 of 101 votes for the 2020 MVP award given yesterday to Giannis Antetokounmpo. Anthony Davis is out to prove that he and not Antetokounmpo deserved the 2020 DPOY Award. Rajon Rondo has a chip on his shoulder and wants to prove Playoff Rondo still lives. And Dwight Howard wants to erase three DNP’s and the bad taste of being a dysfunctional teammate and win his first NBA championship.
The Lakers have their sight clearly focused on winning the franchise’s 17th NBA championship and are now just 7 games away from reaching that goal and proving to the haters and doubters they’re the best team in world. They’re not going to take their foot off the gas or the throats of the Denver Nuggets. With the Milwaukee Bucks and the Los Angeles Clippers no longer in the way, the Lakers can see the finish line and sense the championship.
Head coach Frank Vogel and his coaching staff have done a masterful job managing their roster, rotations, and game plans. Now the Lakers’ Four Horsemen can smell the barn and clearly see the championship finish line.
9 Games down and 7 to go to win their 17th championship and redemption.