Held Heat to 35 points in second half but couldn’t hit open shots to win game. Lakers went 1-13 from three in 4th quarter. 3-point shooting has become team’s Achilles heel.
LeBron James
Could 2021 Cut in NBA Player Salaries Open Door for Lakers’ Trade for CP3?
Would being able pay Chris Paul just $23.1 million instead of $38.5 million for a shortened 50-game 2021 NBA season be enough to motivate the Los Angeles Lakers to trade with the OKC Thunder for the veteran point guard?
It’s an question that shines a harsh light on how the financial fallout from the coronavirus pandemic on the 2020 and 2021 NBA seasons is likely to alter the economic landscape between big market and small market teams. We already know that the difference in revenues between a big market team like the Los Angeles Lakers and a small market team like the OKC Thunder is in many ways the difference between real dollars and Monopoly dollars.
The NBA estimates a coronavirus afflicted 2021 Season with only 50 games could lead to having 40% of players’ salaries held in escrow and eventually lost due to the decline in their share of league basketball related income. While the owners would also lose 40% of their BRI or basketball related income, they would also not have to pay 40% of their player salaries, which to an extent ameliorates or minimizes their bottom line losses.
The Lakers are worth over $2 billion dollars, second only to the Knicks, with most of that value not subject to taxes until the franchise is sold. The Lakers could easily absorb short term losses to win another NBA championship. Small market teams like the Thunder have to rely on franchise appreciation rather than operating income to assess value and don’t have the resources or liquidity to weather difficult economic conditions like the Lakers do.
Just as wealthy investors become buyers and less secure investors become sellers when times are tough, now could be the perfect time for the Lakers to take advantage and trade for Chris Paul while his salaries are discounted. With the NBA looking at a 40% reduction in BRI for the 2021 season due to fewer games and the likely lack of live fans, Chris’ 3-year contract obligation could drop from $124.1 million to $108.7 million, a 12.5% discount.
Add to the equation the possibility the new CBA negotiated after this season could easily include another amnesty clause, there could be a legitimate opportunity for the Lakers to take advantage of the league’s financial crisis. There may be no team in the NBA who’s more willing to spend money or even pay luxury taxes to win championships than the Los Angeles Lakers. That motivation to win is not likely to wane just because times are tough.
Finally, there’s the reality that highly profitable teams like the Lakers have significant advantages over less profitable franchises when it comes to taking advantages of losses to shield profits and reduce income taxes. Losses by highly profitable teams like the Lakers can be carried forward and backward to dramatically reduce federal and state income taxes for past and future years with the net result of even cutting the losses in half.
Chris Paul would be a perfect fit on the Lakers as the third superstar alongside LeBron James and Anthony Davis. He would be the second playmaker, third scorer, and elite defender the Lakers desperately need. While he wouldn’t be the young superstar the Lakers want to keep their championship window open after LeBron retires, Chris would make the Lakers odds on favorites to repeat and threepeat the next two seasons.
The looming reduced player salaries for the 2021 NBA season can provide the Los Angeles Lakers with a unique opportunity to add a future HOF point guard who can help them win two more championships at a discount. It’s an opportunity of which the Lakers cannot afford not to take advantage.
Why Christian Wood Should Be the Lakers’ Top Priority in Free Agency!
I think it’s a question of whether he starts and plays starter minutes versus just being part of the rotation as a 7th or 8th man. Considering how good Talen is playing at 20, he’s going to be a game changer when it comes to the Lakers roster and rotations.
If he grows enough to be a starter, that opens up great opportunities for the Lakers going forward. He opens the door for the Lakers to put together a trade package that could include Schroder, KCP, and Kzma for a third superstar.
Of course, the grand prize is Talen becomes that third superstar. That’s what the Lakers believe is possible considering how great he is playing at just 20 years old. Imagine him two or three years from now. He’s like the Lakers getting a top five pick in the second round.
How Free Agency Could Help the Los Angeles Lakers Repeat as Champions!
While the Lakers are over the salary cap, they still may be able to re-sign valuable free agent role players with raises as well as signing a free agent third scorer, second playmaker, elite wing defender, or modern center.
The Lakers will have to take advantage of league exceptions which allow teams to go over the cap when signing free agents, synchronized execution of the transactions, and opportunistic use of their MLE in a buyers’ market. The Lakers won’t be able to bring back every role player who contributed to their championship but should be able to re-sign the three most important and irreplaceable role players while giving them well deserved raises.
Those three role players are Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Rajon Rondo, and Markieff Morris, all of whom were invaluable contributors to the Lakers’ championship rotation and are essential to the team winning next season. KCP and Rondo are exercising their player options to become free agents while Morris will be a free agent when his 1-year minimum deal expires. The Lakers need to re-sign all three and give them well deserved raises.
Caldwell-Pope earned $8.1 million last season and could easily attract offers between $10 to $12 million as a free agent but the Lakers have his Bird rights and are allowed to go over the salary cap up to re-sign him. Kenny proved he was the team’s third best player and a key component of the offense and defense during the regular season and playoffs. The Lakers should reward him with a 2 or 3-year contract for $12 million per year.
Rondo earned $2.6 million last season and proved to be indispensable both as a floor general and playmaker in the playoffs, setting a record for the most assists from a player off the bench in the history of the NBA playoffs. Rajon should attract offers for taxpayers’ MLE, around $5 million next season. The Lakers have his Early Bird rights and should reward him with a 2-year contract for $6 million with the second year partially guaranteed.
Morris was a late addition replacing Avery Bradley before the season restart. As a power forward who could shoot from deep and defend, he was the catalyst that allowed Anthony Davis to play as center for the Lakers. Markieff earned $2.2 million last season but should receive offers of $3 to $4 million as a free agent. The Lakers should use their Bi-Annual Exception to re-sign him to a 2-year $3.6 per year million contract as he is a key player.
By using Bird rights to re-sign KCP, Early Bird rights to re-sign Rondo, and the Bi-Annual Exception to re-sign Morris, the Laker will have their full $9.3 million non-taxpayer Mid-Level Exception available to pursue free agents. With few teams having major cap space, the $9.3 million MLE and a chance to win a championship ring is likely to make the Lakers a major player for all but a half dozen elite free agents like Fred VanVleet or Davis Bertans.
The Lakers should have no problem filling roster needs with the MLE. How about Danilo Gallinari as their third scorer. Goran Dragic as their second playmaker, Mo Harkness as wing defender, or Aron Baynes as stretch big? There will only be five NBA teams with cap space to offer more to Gallinari, Dragic, Harkness, or Baynes than the Lakers and of those, only the Miami Heat had a winning record last season. The Lakers will get one of these.
Finally, the Lakers will end up with two or three roster spots to be filled by minimum salary veterans looking for an opportunity to win a championship ring or revitalize their career like Dwight Howard and Rajon Rondo did. Heading the list of players in this category will be DeMarcus Cousins, who spent all of last year on the Lakers’ active roster or working out at their facilities after they waived him to sign Markieff Morris before the restart.
So while the Lakers don’t have cap space this offseason, they’re still going to be major players in the free agent market and should be able to re-sign their key free agent role players as well as signing at least one major free agent.
Report Cards & Predictions for Each Player on Lakers’ Championship Team
Like the photo above, every championship is a snapshot of a moment to be savored and cherished when everything went right and a team won the ultimate prize but not a promise that can be repeated or three-peated.
Life goes on and winning has its costs and rewards. For superstars like LeBron James and Anthony Davis, championship windows open. For other Lakers, major career decisions loom and financial opportunities beckon. Rajon Rondo, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Avery Bradley, and JaVale McGee have big player option decisions to consider while Dwight Howard and Markieff Morris have serious free agent financial opportunities to ponder.
Rob Pelinka will face a big challenge trying to keep players like Rondo, KCP, Howard, and Morris who will have strong value based on how well they played in the playoffs and will have to use the team’s MLE to keep them. That means the only way the Lakers can upgrade their roster will be via a trade, with Kyle Kuzma as the primary trading chip, Danny Green and JaVale McGee as filler, and their first round pick as the deal sweetener.
So here’s my final grade for each player on the Lakers’ roster and my prediction whether they will leave or stay with the team going forward:
1. LeBron James – Grade: (A+), Prediction: Stays
What more can you say. Unanimous Finals MVP, still the best player on the planet, and showing zero signs of slowing down. The engine powering the Lakers all season long and the heart and soul of their championship effort.
2. Anthony Davis – Grade: (A), Prediction: Stays
The perfect complement to LeBron James and still not close to his prime. AD’s the second best player on the planet and future face of the franchise. He’ll exercise his player option and re-sign 1+1 max contract with Lakers.
3. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope – Grade: (A-), Prediction: Stays
KCP gets my vote as the third best player on the Lakers both for his outstanding regular season and clutch performance in the playoffs. He’ll exercise his player option and re-sign with Lakers for $12 million.
4. Rajon Rondo – Grade: (A-), Prediction: Stays
Rajon Rondo elevated his game and proved the Playoff Rondo moniker was real and he was still capable of being an elite player. He’ll exercise his player option but re-sign to play with LeBron and AD with a raise to $6 million.
5. Alex Caruso – Grade: (B+), Prediction: Stays
AC Fresh showed he deserved to play big minutes on the biggest stage and will continue to be a key component in the Lakers’ rotation. He should be untouchable when it comes to being traded and a key perimeter defender.
6. Markieff Morris – Grade: (B+), Prediction: Stays
Markieff Morris was the key to unleashing Anthony Davis at the five and will one of the Lakers’ top priorities in free agency this offseason for that reason. Markieff will re-sign with the Lakers and get a raise to $6 million.
7. Dwight Howard – Grade: (B), Prediction: Stays
Dwight Howard’s gamble on taking a non-guaranteed contract with the Lakers will payoff big and he will be a coveted free agent this offseason. He will ultimately re-sign at a discount with the Lakers for $4 million.
8. Kyle Kuzma – Grade: (B-), Prediction: Leaves
While Kuz made great progress this season as a defender, playmaker, and team player, he still plays the same starting position as LeBron and AD. Kyle deserves a starting role and salary. Lakers will trade him this offseason.
9. Danny Green – Grade: (B-), Prediction: Leaves
Danny Green played better than his personal stats indicated, posting top three net and plus/minus ratings showing his value goes beyond stats. Unfortunately, his $15 million expiring salary will be needed in a trade.
10. JaVale McGee – Grade: (C+), Prediction: Leaves
While JaVale played well early in the season, his play the second half of the season and playoffs declined considerably. He will decline his player option for the money but will be included in a trade with Kuzma and Green.
11. Avery Bradley – Grade: (C+), Prediction: Stays
Avery was an integral part of the Lakers’ regular season success but his decision to skip the playoffs for family reasons diminishes his final grade. He will decline his player option and stay part of the Lakers’ rotation.
12. Talen Horton-Tucker – Grade: (C+), Prediction: Stays
THT showed he has a future with the Lakers by his excellent playoff play. Depending on what happens with the roster, he could work his way into the rotation for next season. Or he could end up being trade sweetener.
12. Jared Dudley – Grade: (C), Prediction: Leaves
Jared Dudley filled his role as a veteran mentor and role model with the Lakers to perfection and was rewarded with a championship ring. Dudley will likely retire after this season and join some team’s coaching staff.
13. Quinn Cook – Grade: (C), Prediction: Leaves
Quinn Cook had moments during the regular season as a championship experienced mentor and the Lakers designated break-glass-in-case-of-emergency shooter. His contract is may be guaranteed if needed for a trade.
14. Dion Waiters – Grade: (C-), Prediction: Leaves
Dion Waiters had some promising moments during the seeding games but his performance ultimately couldn’t earn Vogel’s trust as a defender. Dion earned his championship ring but his time with the Lakers is done.
15. J.R. Smith – Grade: (C-), Prediction: Leaves
Despite being a last minute replacement for Avery Bradley, J.R. Smith got a few opportunities to shoot his way into the rotation during the playoffs but couldn’t take advantage of them. He gets a ring but will be moving on.