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Lakers vs. Warriors Play-In Prediction: Lakers Need To Be Ready to Play Small

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NBA Commissioner Adam Silver has to be smiling at the serendipity of the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors meeting Wednesday night in the Play-In Tournament Game between the West’s 7th and 8th place teams.

No better appetizer than LeBron James vs. Steph Curry to get NBA fans excited and hungry for the playoffs after a second straight Covid ravaged season with limited live fans in the stands and declining television ratings. The winner earns the #7 seed and plays the #2 seed Suns in a first round playoff series while the loser has to play the winner of the 9th vs. 10th place game to earn the 8th seed and play the #1 Jazz in a first round series.

LeBron James and Steph Curry already have a storied history, playing each other 38 times, including 16 regular season games and 22 playoff games, with Curry winning 9 of 16 regular season and 15 of 22 playoff games. The threat of Steph and Warriors upsetting LeBron and the defending champion Lakers and sending them into an elimination game vs. the winner of the Grizzlies vs. the Spurs has purple and gold haters salivating.

Watching Steph go off late with three dagger threes to clinch Sunday’s win over the Grizzlies has NBA fans and pundits eagerly awaiting Wednesday night’s matchup between LeBron’s Lakers and Steph’s Warriors for 7th seed.

While the Lakers opened up as 7-point favorites, the line has now dropped to 4.5 points as gamblers expect Golden State to go all-in with their small ball ‘Death Lineup’ with Draymond at center that won three championships.

The Lakers and Warriors met three times this season with Steph Curry catching fire late in the first game to pull off a 2-point Golden State upset but LA dominating the last two games with 26 and 31-point blowouts. With rookie center James Wiseman injured, the Warriors have gone small with Draymond Green at center and won 17 of the 25 games Steph Curry has played since their last game against the Lakers back on March 15.

Make no mistake, Steph Curry has taken his game to new heights since the three games against the Lakers, averaging 36.1 points per game compared to 29.3 points before March 15 to win the second NBA scoring title of his career. The Warriors will likely start Draymond Green at center against the Lakers like they did in their big win over the Grizzlies to clinch 8th place in the West, which puts pressure on Frank Vogel to go small with AD at the five.

With Drummond finally getting a chance and showing he can play with James and Davis, Vogel faces his first major matchup decision of this year’s playoffs: go big with Drummond at center or small with Davis at the five.

Unlike as 7-game series, the Play-In game doesn’t leave any room for error. There’s no question the Lakers as a team are best with Anthony Davis at the five but they have been hesitant to go that route during the regular season.

Last year, AD played the five 25% of the time during the regular season and 40% of the time in the playoffs. This season, he has only played center less than 10% of the time as they have preferred to play him at power forward. The big question for Wednesday night’s game is whether Vogel will stay big and start Andre Drummond at center or counter Steve Kerr’s move to start Draymond Green at the five by starting Anthony Davis at the five.

Realistically, the Lakers with LeBron James and Anthony Davis should be able to dominate the boards and paint and beat the Warriors if they go big with Andre Drummond at center or small with Anthony Davis at center. Considering Drummond’s recent success with LeBron and AD, Vogel’s likely to stick with his starting lineup of Drummond at the five and Davis at the four and look to dominate the Warriors with their size and athleticism.

The danger is Drummond not being able to make the smart adjustments on offense and defense playing against a savant veteran like Draymond Green. If Drummond struggles, look for Vogel to make a quick change to go small.

Frank Vogel’s personnel moves in last year’s playoffs were close to perfect as he dramatically increased the minutes superstar Anthony Davis played center from 25% during the regular season to over 40% during the playoffs.

Wednesday night’s Play-In game against the Warriors should give us a critical first hint of how Vogel is going to manage his center minutes in these playoffs. Will he rely on Drummond at the five or revert back to Davis? Along with the heath of LeBron James and Anthony Davis, how Drummond plays and what Vogel decides to do with his center minutes will likely determine whether Lakers can realistically repeat as champions.

There’s no question the Los Angeles Lakers face an unprecedented gauntlet to win their 18th NBA championship. Unlike any other champion in NBA history, the Lakers will have to win 17 games rather than 16 to do it.

Lakers Players Building Championship Confidence Being Stars in Their Roles

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To say the Los Angeles Lakers have had a tough season is a understatement. The short offseason, compressed schedule, and major injuries to superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis and key role players have taken their toll.

Barring the Lakers winning their remaining two games and the Blazers losing their last game against the Nuggets on Sunday, the defending NBA champion Lakers will end the 2021 regular season in 7th place in the West. The NBA introduced a Play-In Tournament this season to determine the 7th and 8th seeds. The winner of the 7th vs. 8th place teams wins 7th seed while the loser plays the winner of 9th vs. 10th place teams for 8th seed.

The playoff path for the 7th seed Lakers to repeat as NBA champions this year is a gauntlet filled with major obstacles and road blocks. In fact, no team below 5th seed has ever won the championship in NBA playoff history. Despite all the injuries and losing 17 of the 29 games since LeBron James was injured in March, the Lakers are suddenly getting healthy and showing promising signs they may be capable of defending their championship.

The most promising signs have been the recent championship caliber play by LeBron’s supporting cast, including Anthony Davis, Andre Drummond, Talen Horton-Tucker, Kyle Kuzma, Alex Caruso, and Wesley Matthews. While championships in the NBA are won by superstars, basketball is still a team game and it’s often role players performing like stars in their roles that ultimately determines which team ends up winning the NBA championship.

So let’s look at the key members of LeBron James’ supporting cast who have performed like stars in their roles over the Lakers’ last few games and what their roles might be in these playoffs helping win the championship.

THE RETURN OF PLAYOFF ANTHONY DAVIS

Considering we don’t know for sure whether LeBron’s high ankle sprain has completely healed or not until he hits the court, Anthony Davis playing at the elite level of last year’s playoffs is the key to a Lakers’ championship.

In the last three games he’s played, Davis has averaged 32.7 points, 10.0 rebounds, 4.7 assists, 1.3 steals, 1.3 blocks in 41.1 minutes per game, while shooting 45.2% from the field, 33.3% from three, and 78.4% from the line. Those stats compare favorably to last year’s playoff stats: 27.7 points, 9.7 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.2 steals, 1.4 blocks in 46.6 minutes per game, while shooting 57.1% from the field, 38.3% from three, and 83.2% from the line.

Watching Anthony Davis finally shoot and defend at the same elite level he did during last year’s playoffs gives Lakers fans legitimate hope the purple and gold can still rally and run the gauntlet to repeat as NBA champions.

THE EMERGENCE OF ANDRE DRUMMOND

Signed as a free agent from the buyout market, Andre Drummond has struggled at times to find his role and comfort zone playing with the Lakers during the 19 games he’s played with LA with LeBron and AD injured.

With the return of Anthony Davis, Andre has finally started to figure things out, averaging 18.0 points, 14 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 1.5 blocks in 28.6 minutes per game, shooting 62.5% from the field and 50.0% from the line. That is a dramatic improvement over his first 17 games when he averaged just 11.2 points, 9.3 rebounds, 1.5 assists, and 0.8 blocks in 24.3 minutes per game while shooting 52.0% from the field and 64.3% from the line.

The important of Drummond finally posting double-doubles like the 17.5 points and 13.5 rebounds per game he averaged for the Cavs this season cannot be overstated. The Lakers suddenly have a playoff starting center.

THE STAR POWER OF TALEN HORTON-TUCKER

After refusing to include Talen Horton-Tucker in a trade for Kyle Lowry, the Lakers finally started to see rewards for their faith in their 20-year old young star as THT has now elevated his play to include late game heroics.

His dramatic rebound and put back after a wild layup miss sealed the Lakers’ clutch win over the Nuggets and his 3-point dagger from the wing over childhood hero Derrick Rose clinched the Lakers’ win over the Knicks. With LeBron James, Dennis Schroder, and Alex Caruso out the last two games, THT has taken over the point and averaged aa 18-point, 10-assists double-double leading the Lakers to big wins over the Suns and Rockets.

With a 12-man rotation heading into the playoffs, Lakers head coach Frank Vogel is going to be challenged to find playing time for many of the role players on his bench but THT has shown he has to be part of that rotation.

MORE CONSISTENCY FROM KYLE KUZMA

More than any other role player on the Lakers, Kyle Kuzma is the team’s jack of all trades with his scoring, rebounding, playmaking, and defense, all of which at times leads to his posting inconsistent stats from game to game.

During his last 2 games, Kuzma has focused primarily on scoring with both James and Davis out, racking up games of 23 and 19 points in wins over the Knicks and Rockets, including a clutch game winning layup over Houston. Kyle averaged a team best 21.0 points, 6.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.0 steal, and 0.5 blocks in 32.4 minutes per game over the last 2 games while shooting 58.6% from the field, 45.5% from three, and 50.0% from the line.

Kuzma will be one of the first players off the bench for Frank Vogel in the playoffs and will hopefully continue to provide the Lakers with more consistency from his shooting, rebounding, assisting, and defending.

MORE SCORING PUNCH FROM ALEX CARUSO

Alex Caruso is another Lakers player who’s benefited from having more playing time and responsibility with LeBron James and Anthony Davis out with injuries. Lately, Alex has responded with aggression on offense.

Before reinjuring himself 7 minutes into the last game, Caruso posted back-to-back games where he scored 17 and 18 points in games with Phoenix and Portland, by far his two biggest scoring games in the regular season. Over that 2-game stretch without LeBron and AD, Caruso averaged 17.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 1.5 steals in 33.5 minutes per game, while shooting 51.9% from the field, 60% from three, and 50.0% from the line.

While Alex is not a natural scorer, his looking more for his shot has to be another positive to add to his defense first resume. Caruso’s renewed aggressiveness is great news for an offensively challenged Lakers team.

VETERAN CLUTCH PLAY FROM WES MATTHEWS

Relegated to the bench a few weeks back when Frank Vogel tried to narrow his rotation, Wes Matthews displayed his savvy by staying ready and when given his chance showed he was still an elite defender and clutch player.

Wes’ clutch rebound and put back as time ran out enabled the Lakers to tie the Knicks and eventually win the game in overtime and his clutch steal sealed the team’s comeback win over the Rockets without Davis and James. Over the Lakers’ last five games, Matthews has averaged 6.8 points, 3.0 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.4 blocks in 25.0 minutes per game while shooting 40.0% from the field, 38.1% from three, and 66.7% from the line.

The key for Matthews has been his defense, especially against bigger guards and wings. Over the last 5 games, Wes’ 105.6 defensive rating has been the 4th best on the team, often against the opposing team’s best scorers.

Anthony Davis, Andre Drummond, Talen Horton-Tucker, Kyle Kuzma, Alex Caruso, and Wesley Matthews have all been stars in their role as the Lakers have regrouped and learned to win without superstar LeBron James.

With just 2 games left in the regular season, the Lakers are now looking like the juggernaut the rest of the league expected before AD and LeBron fell to injury and the likely 7th seed nobody in the NBA wants to meet in playoffs. The silver lining to playing without Davis for 30+ games and without James for 20+ games is many of the Lakers role players have been able to learn how to make clutch plays and win games without their superstars.

Heading into the playoffs, having role players capable of being stars in their roles may be exactly what the Lakers need to make the long and improbable journey from Play-In Tournament and 7th seed to NBA champions.

This is the NBA Finals MVP Version of Anthony Davis We Saw in Last Playoffs

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There was a feeling heading into last year’s playoffs Anthony Davis might be ready to take the baton from an aging LeBron James as Los Angeles Lakers’ best player and team leader. After last night’s big game, that feeling is back.

No disrespect to LeBron James and what he’s accomplished throughout his illustrious career, but there’s a point when the Lakers’ championship hopes need to focus on their 28-year old rather than their 36-year old superstar. Maybe James will win another dramatic injury and performance battle with Father Time to lead the Lakers to his 5th and the team’s 18th championship but having Anthony Davis back playing like a Finals MVP is great news.

LeBron James won Finals MVP last season averaging 29.8 points, 11.8 boards, 8.5 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.5 blocks in 39.4 minutes per game while shooting 59.1% from the field, 41.7% from three, and 66.7% from the line. That overshadowed a great Finals by Davis, who averaged 25.0 points, 10.7 boards, 3.2 assists, 1.3 steals, 2.0 blocks in 38.2 minutes per game while shooting 57.1% from the field, 42.1% from three, and 93.8% from the line.

Last night, Davis gave us a preview of what to expect from him in this year’s playoffs, posting 42 points, 12 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 steals, 3 blocks while shooting 48.1% from the field, 20.0% from three, and 88.2% from the line. Over the last 2 games without LeBron James, Anthony Davis has averaged 39.0 points, 12.0 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 1.5 steals, and 2.0 blocks while shooting 50.0 from the field, 37.5% from three, and 78.1% from the line.

Those are Finals MVP caliber stats from Anthony Davis, numbers we frankly have not seen at all this regular season. They’re not only a testament AD is 100% healthy but also may finally be ready to take that baton from LeBron. For Lakers fans who’ve seen their championship aspirations fall as the team fell all the way to 7th seed forcing participation in the league’s new Play-In Tournament, that is the best news they could possibly hear at this point.

In a Covid-crippled, injury riddled, schedule compressed season, the Lakers have already been written off by most pundits as they’ve plummeted in the Western Conference standings and the top power rankings for the league. Laker haters are ecstatic over the prospect of LA having to play Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors and then possibly the Memphis Grizzlies or San Antonio Spurs just to make the cut to get into the NBA playoffs.

The last thing the angry haters and hungry competitors want to see is a healthy Anthony Davis motivated to prove to everybody he is ready to take the baton from LeBron James as the LA Lakers’ best player and team leader. Hobbled by the lingering injuries from the bubble, Davis has struggled with his shooting and defense most of this season before sitting out 30 games to get his calf and Achilles 100% healed. Hearing he’s back is going to be scary.

Couple Anthony Davis’ great play the last few games with the encouraging news LeBron James also appears to be 100% healthy and will be returning either tomorrow against the Knicks on Wednesday against the Rockets. Suddenly, the Lakers no longer look like a team in the midst of an injury crisis with their two Superstars. Now the rest of the NBA needs to face the reality the Lakers are their biggest hurdle to winning the championship.

The possibility Anthony Davis could elevate his game to another level and become the Los Angeles Lakers’ best player and team leader and steal the Finals MVP award from LeBron James is something that’s going to happen. While it looked like that was a long shot for this year as both Anthony and LeBron suffered major injuries, the situation has dramatically changed. The Lakers are suddenly back in the hunt for their 18th NBA championship.

Everything is about timing and there could be no better time for Anthony Davis to take the baton from LeBron James and become the Los Angeles Lakers’ best player, team leader, and Finals MVP than this year’s playoffs.

Could Frank Vogel Go With 12-Player Rotation for Lakers in NBA Playoffs?

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Crazy as it may seem, there are signs Frank Vogel may actually decide to go with a 12-player rotation for the playoffs that will include four different players getting minutes at the center position depending on matchups.

While most teams narrow their playoff rotations to just 8 or 9 players, the Lakers appear to be poised to do the exact opposite to take advantage of the great depth and versatility of their roster by actively including 12 players. The reasons Vogel might decide to take this approach include wanting to keep everybody on the team engaged and ready to contribute, maintain maximum matchup flexibility, and keep his future rotation options open.

While going with a 12-man rotation may seem extreme, the uncertainty about whom to play is really limited to just the center position, where the recent signing of Andre Drummond has created a severe minutes crunch. Vogel firmly believes the Lakers are going to need Drummond, Harrell, and Gasol well as Anthony Davis at the five during these playoffs. The challenge is fitting four players who averaged 80 minutes per game into 48 minutes.

The solution is likely narrowing the 12-man rotation for each playoff series based on the matchups. While Davis will close games at the five, who plays center for the first three and half quarters will depend on the matchups.

THE CORE 12-MAN ROTATION

Here’s a chart showing the Lakers core 12-man rotation with Gasol starting and Davis closing halves and each of the Lakers’ centers playing 12 minutes per game although the actual minutes distribution would vary each series.

For example, the Lakers best center rotation option to defend against the Nuggets’ stretch fives Jokic and Green is going to be different than the rotation versus the Jazz’s traditional low post centers Gobert and Favors. Frank Vogel might opt to use Drummond’s and Harrell’s mobility to defend the Nuggets’ stretch fives Jokic and Green but play the Lakers’ stretch fives Gasol and Davis to pull the Jazz’s Gobert and Favors out of the paint.

It’s even possible Vogel might opt to play all four centers in the first game of each series to see who matches up best against the opposing team’s centers and then adjusting who plays center the rest of the series on the matchups. This would give each center an opportunity to show the coaching staff he deserved to play the rest of the series. It’s almost the same blueprint Frank used during last year’s playoffs, although with am extremely short leash.

Now that LeBron James and Anthony Davis are both back on the court, the Lakers need to figure out whether Andre Drummond is a good fit alongside LeBron and Ad and whether he can be the starting center in the playoffs.

THE BEST 9-MAN ROTATION

Here’s a chart showing the Lakers core 9-man rotation with Gasol starting and Davis closing halves at center, Drummond covering the remaining minutes, and Horton-Tucker, Morris, and Harrell being out of the rotation.

With the 9-man rotation, the Lakers should still start each half with Marc Gasol and close each half with Anthony Davis at the 5 to stretch defenses, make it harder to double, and open up lanes for LeBron and AD to attack. Drummond is a better center option off the bench than Harrell because he offers more rim protection, scoring, and rebounding though Vogel will likely start Drummond and play Gasol in the middle of the half.

Narrowing the rest of the rotation is fairly easy. Caruso takes over Horton-Tucker’s minutes because his defense and 3-point shooting is better while Kuzma takes over Morris’ minutes because of his versatility and shooting. There could be matchups where Horton-Tucker’s ability to get to the rim and make plays for teammates become more important. There could also be matchups where Morris’ bulk and low post defense trump Kuzma’s skillset.

The above 9-man rotation makes it easy for the Lakers to make adjustments based on specific matchups in each playoff series or on how specific players are performing. The rotation is just a starting template for who plays when.

Right now, Vogel has to stop the incessant experimenting. There is nothing that can be gained from that at this point. The only viable route forward is to decide who’s going to play and then give them the opportunity to develop. Narrowing the rotation down to 9 players would at least provide the Lakers with a needed opportunity to get some game and practice time in and hopefully create some cohesion and chemistry before the playoffs start.

At this point, it doesn’t matter where the Lakers end up as far as seeding goes, even if that means having to win in the Play-In Tournament. All that matters is LeBron and AD being healthy and deciding upon a rotation. Injuries to superstars, questionable personnel moves in the offseason, an ill-advised refusal to trade for Kyle Lowry at the deadline, and coaching indecisiveness have made repeating as champions an improbable long shot.

The best the Lakers can hope for is LeBron James and Anthony Davis getting their games together once we get into the playoffs and a narrowed rotation stepping up and pulling off a miraculous finish to win the championship.

Lakers Foolishly Chasing Pipe Dream Big 3 of LeBron, AD, and Drummond

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Instead of locking down the 5th seed and fine tuning the small ball lineup with AD at the five that won the championship last year, the Lakers are foolishly chasing a pipe dream Big 3 of James, Davis, and Drummond.

Frankly, the Lakers would be hard pressed to find a poorer option to be the third member of a Big 3 with LeBron James and Anthony Davis than Andre Drummond, a center whose mental and physical tool sets simply don’t fit. That Frank Vogel’s first look at a James, Davis, and Drummond Big 3 ended with a costly and disappointing 110–106 loss at Staples Center to a Kings team with the worst defensive rating in the league was not a big surprise.

Anybody who watched Drummond play in his 11 games with the Lakers before last night could have easily have predicted Andre would post empty stats and fail to generate any winning chemistry with LeBron and Anthony. While Drummond is talented, there’s no chance he‘ll be able to learn how to win in time to help the Lakers repeat as NBA champions after spending 8 years acquiring poor habits and failing to develop his game on losing teams.

Offensively, Drummond is an inefficient low post scorer and poor lob threat whose constant presence in the paint makes it easy for teams to build a wall and prevent James and Davis from penetrating and getting to the rim. Defensively, he’s not the shot blocker or rim protector McGee or Howard were and is vulnerable like them to becoming unplayable in the trapping, switching, rotating defense the Lakers used to win the championship.

While Vogel praised the potential of the James, Davis, and Drummond Big 3, the eye test and analytics painted a different picture: 17 minutes with a subpar 97.3 offensive rating, 105.4 defensive rating, and -8.1 net rating. While Drummond scored 17 points and grabbed 7 rebounds, he ended up with a -3.0 plus/minus for game, including a key stretch late in the fourth quarter where a 3 point Lakers’ lead turned into a critical 2 point deficit.

The danger of the Lakers foolishly chasing a pipe dream Big 3 of James, Davis, and Drummond is they waste valuable time experimenting with a big lineup when they should be honing their small ball lineups for the playoffs. Andre Drummond is not going to replace Anthony Davis as the Lakers’ best center and no big lineup is going to replace the proven small ball lineups with AD at the five that defined the Lakers’ championship run last year.

It was frustrating watching Vogel ignore the great play from Marc Gasol (+12 plus/minus) at center in the first half and then stubbornly only play centers Drummond (-3 plus/minus) and Harrell (-11 plus/minus) in the second half. In the 9 games left, the Lakers need to lock up 5th seed in the West, re-integrate LeBron and AD, and figure out their playoff lineups and rotations. The last thing they should be doing is chasing a pipe dream Big 3 lineup.

The Lakers are likely to get a wake up call when they play the Nuggets and Clippers next week. If there is any hope a James, Davis, and Drummond Big 3 can actually work, Vogel is going to have to see it in those two games. Otherwise, the Lakers will have no option other than to look to reprise their championship run of last season by going small with Anthony Davis starting and closing games at the five and hope they can recapture that magic.

Should the James, Davis, and Drummond Big 3 crash and burn against the Nuggets and Clippers, the Lakers would still have six regular season games to switch to small ball lineups with Davis and Gasol playing as stretch fives. That should still be enough time for Vogel and his staff to re-commit to playing small ball, reexamine their starting and closing lineups, and narrow their rotations from 10–11 to 8–9 players for the upcoming playoffs.

Rooting for anybody on the Lakers to fail has never been an option for me but the best thing for the Lakers vs. the Nuggets and Clippers might be to find chasing a James, Davis, and Drummond Big 3 was a foolish pipe dream.