L.A.’s season has unfortunately come down to whether 38-year old LeBron James can don his Superman’s cape one more time and put the struggling 13–17 Lakers on his wide shoulders and carry them until AD gets back?
Frankly, that’s not only an unfair burden to put on LeBron James, who’s in the middle of an epic battle we’re all witnessing with Father Time, but also probably the Lakers only realistic chance of salvaging this doomed season.
The front office is already guilty of handicapping the team with a roster desperately in need of more size, shooting, and defense to win consistently. Unsure of the seriousness of Davis’ injury, the Lakers seem ready to punt.
Putting the onus on their 38-year old superstar seems patently unfair, especially after LeBron voluntarily signed an 1+1 extension rather than use that as leverage to force the Lakers to trade Westbrook and their picks.
Now AD’s injury has seemingly given Rob Pelinka and the Lakers’ front office a chance to throw in the towel and sacrifice this season despite Anthony Davis playing like the MVP and LeBron fighting off Father Time.
Davis’ untimely injury has probably derailed any hopes of the Lakers going all-in to win a championship this season. Unless LeBron pulls off a miracle, it’s doubtful the Lakers will trade Westbrook and the picks to improve team.
What Qualifies As a Miracle from LeBron and Lakers?
So what would qualify as a miracle? What would give the Lakers’ front office enough confidence to go all-in and trade Westbrook and their two first round picks so LeBron and AD could possibly win #18 this season?
The answer is LeBron James and the Lakers winning at a rate that convinces the front office the season can still be salvaged and that there was still a chance they could beat the Celtics in the race to win #18.
But the only way that’s going to happen is if LeBron James pimp slaps Father Time and the rest of the NBA and goes on a memorable run to transform a broken roster into a team that wins more than looses.
The Lakers ’remaining 52 regular season games can be broken down into two groups: the 26 games to be played before the February 9 trade deadline and 26 games to be played after the February 9 trade deadline has passed.
The Lakers need a miracle parlay to finish top-six. They must first win 15 of 26 games before deadline to get to 28–28 and convince the Lakers to trade Russ and picks. Then they need to win 20 of the 26 games to finish 48–34.
It will be a challenge but it’s not too late for the Lakers to convince the front office to trade Russ and the picks. Nor is it too late for the Lakers to get a healthy AD back and make a trade to transform them into a contenders.
Can Lakers Mathematically Salvage Season?
How realistic are the chances of LeBron to rally the Lakers without AD and win 15 of the 26 games before the trade deadline? And if they accomplish that, what are their chances of winning 20 of 26 to close out the season?
Let’s take a look first at the 26 games the Lakers have to play before the trade deadline and see if there is a pathway that where LeBron could lead them to win 15 of those games and post a 28–28 record by the deadline.
The Lakers should be even or favored in 16 and underdogs in only 10 of 26. With luck, AD could be back before deadline. Bottom line, Lakers should have a good chance to win 15 of 26 and post a 28–28 record by the deadline.
Even if they get AD back, reach .500 before the deadline, and swap Russ and picks for rotation players, the Lakers face a near impossible challenge to win 20 of 26 to go from a 28–28 Play-In team to a 48–34 Playoff team.
To win the #6 seed in the Western Conference and avoid the Play-In Tournament, the Lakers will need to win 20 of the 26 games after the trade deadline to finish the regular season with a 48–34 win-loss record.
For the Lakers to be talking about throwing in the towel 30 games into a season where Anthony Davis was the best player in the league and LeBron James still dominant seems like a contradiction in logic and reality.
First of all, the Lakers received needed reassurance LeBron James and Anthony Davis could lead them to another championship, which really had become a question of concern due to injuries and losses the last two years.
Second, the West is a mess and there are no surefire championship teams, which is another reason why the Lakers need to keep their options open. Finally, there’s the Pelicans’ pick swap and Celtics shot at #18 to consider.
In the end, there is a pathway for the Lakers to become a .500 team before the trade deadline and even to finish the season with a strong closing run that cinches the #6 seed in the West with a 48–34 win-loss record.