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Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

The Los Angeles Lakers Cap Dilemma: Accept Hard Cap or Pay Luxury Taxes!

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The Lakers road back to championship contention depends on whether they chose to accept a hard cap by pursuing sign-and-trades for other team’s free agents or opt to pay luxury taxes by re-signing all of their own free agents.

There are advantages to being hardcapped, namely being able to sign-and-trade for other teams’ free agents and being able to use the full $9.5 million Mid-Level and the $3.7 million Bi-Annual Exceptions to sign free agents. But being hardcapped has consequences. The team’s total annual salaries cannot ever exceed $143 million, which greatly limits the trade and free agency opportunities the team can take advantage of during the season.

Declining to be hardcapped has advantages in that teams can go over the cap to re-sign their own free agents using various versions of Bird rights. That’s critical for the Lakers who have numerous free agents of their own. For big market teams like the Lakers with strong local revenues, going over the cap allows them more freedom to create deep and versatile rosters with the only penalty being a brutal luxury tax that could cost $25-$50 million.

So let’s take a look at the Lakers’ salary cap situation to see what roster building options they have should they decide to accept being hardcapped or commit to paying the luxury taxes and re-signing their own free agents.

1. The Los Angeles Lakers’ Options If Hardcapped.

LAKERS TRADE KCP & KUZMA FOR KYLE LOWRY

Adding a third superstar like Kyle Lowry, whom the Lakers tried to trade for during the season, to go with LeBron James and Anthony Davis might be a sign-and-trade the Lakers might accept though it would hardcap them.

Let’s look at the Lakers’ salary cap numbers after the above proposed trade to see the impact of being hardcapped on their roster. Accepting Lowry in a sign-and-trade would hardcap the Lakers at $143 million for the season. The key is how much they have to pay for the third superstar. Paying Kyle Lowry $22.0 million per year for three years still allows the Lakers to keep everybody on their roster but Dennis Schroder and Montrezl Harrell.

After trading Kuzma and KCP for Lowry, the Lakers would have four players under contract — James, Davis, Lowry, and Gasol — for $101.2 total salary, leaving them with $41.8 million under the hard cap to build out the roster. That’s enough to cover $10.0 million to re-sign THT, $9.0 million of the full MLE, $5.0 million to for Caruso, $1.9 million for McKinnie, $1.6 million for the #22 pick, $5.0 million for Deng, and $9.3 million for 6 roster spots.

LAKERS $143 M ILLION SALARY CAP SPENDING UNDER A HARD CAP

Signing-and-trading Kuzma and KCP for another team’s free agent earning less than $22 million per year would enable the Lakers to bring back their own free agents other than Schroder and Harrell and pay minimal taxes.

2. The Los Angeles Lakers’ Options If Not Hardcapped.

LAKERS TRADE KUZMA, KCP, HARRELL, MCKINNIE, & PICK FOR ROZIER AND HIELD

The Lakers might opt to avoid pursuing other teams’ free agents and being hardcapped and instead look to upgrade their roster by bringing back their own free agents and trading for players under contract with other teams.

Not being limited to total annual salaries under $143 million would allow the Lakers to go over the salary cap to trade for players under contract to other teams and to award deserved raises to re-sign their own free agents. The Lakers would have no limit to how far they go over the cap to re-sign key free agents of their own like Schroder, Horton-Tucker, and Caruso. The only penalty they would face would be an expensive luxury tax bill.

Here’s a breakdown of how the roster would look after the above proposed trade of Kyle Kuzma, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Montrezl Harrell, and Alfonzo McKinnie for the Hornets Terry Rozier and the Kings Buddy Hield. The Lakers total salaries for adding Rozier and Hield and bringing back everybody but Shroder or Harrell would be $157.0 million, which would cost $33.3 million in luxury taxes and a total payroll of $190.3 million

LAKERS $157 MILLION SALARY CAP SPENDING UNDER SOFT CAP

So letting Schroder and Harrell walk and focusing on trades for players under contract rather than sign-and-trades for free agents could also enable the Lakers to build a championship roster but would cost $50 million more.

The availablity of the ‘right’ player will determine whether the Lakers opt to go after other teams’ free agents and be hardcapped or re-sign their own free agents, trade for players under contract, and incur major luxury taxes.

The Lakers would be wise to eschew pursuing sign-and-trades for other teams’ free agents unless the player is a legitimate third superstar who earns less than $22 million per year to complement LeBron and AD. Otherwise, they would be smart to look to trade for high volume, high percentage 3-point shooting guards and bring back most of their own free agents even if it cost them $190 million rather than $143 million in salaries and taxes.

The competitive landscape of the league has changed dramatically since the Lakers won their Bubble Championship. The Lakers woud be smart to avoid chasing other teams’ free agents and becoming hardcapped at $143 million.

Why Ben McLemore Is Missing Piece in Lakers’ 3-Point Shooting Puzzle!

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We’ve seen this movie before, haven’t we? But usually we’re the other team who just lost the game because some red hot 3-point shooter just shot lights out and sent the the Lakers home losers. Well, not tonight, baby.

Tonight, the team where 3-point shooters come to die got revenge as Ben McLemore, starting with a minute left in the 3rd, exploded for 5 threes and 17 points in 13 minutes to turn a 12 point lead into a 25 point Lakers’ win. Ben made 6 for 12 from the field and 5 for 10 from deep as the Lakers tied their season record with 19 made threes on 34 attempts while holding the Nets to just 5 made threes on 27 attempts, including a 0 for 15 second half.

The Lakers took an 8-point 1st quarter lead, lost it but still led by 3 at the half, and were holding a shaky 12-point lead with a minute left in the 3rd when Ben McLemore made what was the most important shot in the game. After missing his first four shots in the game, Ben’s corner three jumper off a pass from Caruso broke a 3-minute drought without a field goal and gave the Lakers confidence and a 15 point lead heading into the fourth quarter.

There were many Laker heroes last night — Dre, Dennis, Kenny, Talen, Keef — but it was Ben splashing two more threes to start the fourth that pushed the lead to 21 points and turned a competitive game into a Lakers’ blowout. The Lakers have struggled all season to win the 3-point battle without a volume 3-point shooter like McLemore who could shoot them back into games or catch fire and turn close games into blowouts like last night.

Ben McLemore may be the answer to the Lakers 3-point shooting woes. While Ben’s not going to take 10 threes every game, if he could take 7 or 8 threes per game, he could reverse the Lakers’ negative 3-point differential. Teams can’t increase their 3-point shot attempts by just having their existing shooters take more threes. The only way teams can realistically increase the threes taken is by adding high percentage, high volume 3-point shooters.

Volume 3-point shooting is specific skill and mind set the Lakers didn’t have on the roster until they added McLemore. It takes a player with a quick release and zero conscience or worry when it comes to letting the shot fly. That’s not Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Dennis Schroder, Alex Caruso, Marc Gasol, or even Kyle Kuzma, Wesley Matthews, or Markieff Morris but it is Ben McLemore as we saw last night when he rained threes on the Nets.

How much difference can one volume 3-point shooter make for the Lakers? The math is simple. Each additional 3-point shot is potentially worth a point so if Ben can add 8 more threes per game, that could be worth 8 points. That’s assuming he shoots threes at 33.3%. If he can take 8 threes and make 3.2 or 40%, then he could add 9.6 points to the Lakers’ offense, which would elevate the Lakers from 23rd with 110.8 ppg to 1st with 120.4 ppg.

While some of those 8 additional threes by McLemore could be new shots, some will just replace 2-point or 3-point shots taken by other players so Ben taking 8 threes per game is not going to actually generate 9.6 more points. However, volume 3-point shooting by Ben could generate half of that or 4.8 more points per game which would increase the Lakers’ ppg to 115.0, which would make them a Top-5 NBA offense in points scored per game.

So while last night’s game was just one game, it shows why Ben McLemore and his high percentage, high volume 3-point shooting could be the missing piece in solving the puzzle of the Lakers’ negative 3-point differential.

Lakers Need Volume 3-Point Shooting If They Hope to Repeat as Champions!

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The 3-point shooting revolution has taken a sudden change this year that threatens the Los Angeles Lakers’ chances of repeating as champions. The key metric to winning games has suddenly become the 3-point differential.

NBA teams are not only focusing on taking and making more threes than opponents but also on playing better perimeter defense to limit opponent takes and makes and to generate an insurmountable 3-point differential. Suddenly, the 3-point differential has become the preeminent box score stat that determines who wins the game. The modern blueprint for winning in today’s NBA is to outscore your opponent from beyond the 3-point line.

The surprise team leading the league right now are the 24–5 Utah Jazz, who have won 9 straight games and 19 of their last 20. The Jazz also boast the league’s top ranked 3-point differential of 5.6 threes and 16.8 points. The reason the Jazz have the best record in the league is simple. They’re not only making a league best 16.6 made threes per game on 39.3% shooting but also only allowing a league lowest 11.0 made threes per game.

NBA 3-POINT DIFFERENTIAL AS OF FEBRUARY 19, 2021

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The Jazz even won the 3-point differential in the only game they lost of the last 20 games, hitting 20 of 47 threes for 42.6%. It took the Denver Nuggets hitting an incredible 18 for 28 threes for 64.3% to give the Jazz a rare loss. The league has been slow to give Quin Snyder and the Utah Jazz credit for being more than an early season surprise but the teams they’ve played understand their combination of 3-point offense and defense is daunting.

With Gobert protecting the rim freeing defenders to challenge threes and a cadre of dead eye shooters raining threes, the Jazz now have the 4th best offensive rating, 2nd best defensive rating, and best net rating in the league.

After making a change in defensive philosophy to prioritize defending the three over protecting the rim, the Lakers only allow 11.5 made threes per game, which is tied for the third fewest opponent threes in the league. Unfortunately, the Lakers only make 10.8 threes per game, 28th in the league, resulting in a negative 3-point differential: they allow 0.7 more threes and 2.1 points per game than they make, 18th out of 30 teams.

Alarmingly, the other three teams with the top four 3-point differentials are also teams the Lakers may end up facing on the road to the championship: the 2nd ranked Blazers, the 3rd ranked Nets, and the 4th ranked Clippers. The Portland Trail Blazers have a scary 3-point differential of 3.1 threes and 9.3 points, the Brooklyn Nets a differential of 2.6 threes and 7.8 points, and the Los Angeles Clippers a differential of 2.5 threes and 7.5 points.

What’s unnerving about the Lakers’ negative 3-point differential is there is limited room to improve defensively, which means the only way to close the gap is offensively, which may be impossible without major roster changes. Changes in the roster may be needed because the Lakers simply do not have the high volume 3-point shooters needed to increase the number of made threes and points generated to create a positive 3-point differential.

Right now, the closest the Lakers have to a high volume 3-point shooter is LeBron who’s taking 6.6 threes per game. Next in 3-point shot attempts are Kuzma with 3.7 per game, KCP with 3.7, Wes with 3.3, and Dennis with 3.1. None of these players, LeBron included, are legitimate volume 3-point shooters. Frankly, if the Lakers want to increase made threes and points, they’re going to need to change their roster and upgrade their offense.

Otherwise, they’re going to see more and more teams dominating them from deep like the Nets did last night, hitting 10 more threes for 30 more points. But they’re going to face a 3-point differentiaL gauntlet this year. The Jazz’ Mitchell and Clarson are averaging 8.7 and 8.6 threes per game, the Blazers’ Lillard and McCollum 10.8 and 11.0, the Nets’ Harden, Irving, and Harris 7.9, 6.8, and 6.6, the Clippers George and Leonard 7.9 and 4.9.

Last regular season, the Lakers took 31.6 threes per game and shot only 34.8%. They improved dramatically in the playoffs, taking 34.2 threes and shooting 35.4%. Defensively, they allowed 32.7 opponent threes per game. They made 12.1 threes and allowed 11.8 opponent threes in the playoffs, giving them a differential of 0.3 threes and 0.9 points. So it’s not impossible for the Lakers to win a championship with a low 3-point differential.

But the Lakers’ options are still limited. To start with, they need to make some basic changes in their offense to create more open threes and they need to encourage their players to take those shots when they’re available. Their 3-point attempts have declined over 10% the last 15 games. They took 31.9 threes per game the first 15 games but just 28.3 threes per game the last 15 games. While they’ve continued to win, the margin has gotten slim.

The Lakers best option is to look to move low 3-point volume starting guards Dennis Schroder and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope for a pair of high volume 3-point shooters to help improve their 3-point differential. Candidates the Lakers could target include Buddy Hield (10.3 3PG), Malik Beasley (8.7 3PG), Devonte Graham (8.1 3PG), Lonzo Ball (7.6 3PG), JJ Redick (4.6 3PG), Lauri Markkanen (7.2 3PG), Victor Oladipo (7.3 3PG).

The Lakers’ 3-point differential depends more on the volume than the percentage of threes made. While it’s not impossible for the Lakers to repeat as champions, their negative 3-point differential will make that difficult. The last thing they want is to play the four teams who have the best 3-point differentials in the league: Blazers in the first round, Clippers in the second round, Jazz in the conference finals, and then the Nets in the Finals.

The good news is the Lakers will have an opportunity at the trade deadline for moves to improve their rim protection and 3-point shooting. Let’s hope they recognize their negativer 3-point differential is their Achilles heel.

Three Reasons Kyle Lowry Mega Trade Guarantees Lakers the Championship

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The Lakers don’t need a trade to repeat as champs but the chance to make a mega trade for All-Star point guard Kyle Lowry, modern young center Chris Boucher, and young shooting guard Terrence Davis is too good to pass up.

Here are the details of the proposed trade. The los Angeles Lakers receive Kyle Lowry, Chris Boucher, and Terrence Davis. The Toronto Raptors receive Dennis Schroder, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Montrezl Harrell.

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While giving up three proven young stars like Dennis Schroder, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Montrezl Harrell is an expensive price to pay, landing Lowry, Boucher, and Davis could fill three major holes in the Lakers’ roster. The Lakers need a third superstar to reduce reliance on LeBron James and Anthony Davis, proven shooters willing to take and make more threes, and better rim protection and 3-point shooting from the center position.

This trade would give the Lakers a highly coveted third superstar in Lowry, three accurate and prolific 3-point shooters in Lowry, Davis, and Boucher, and a modern young center in Boucher who can rain threes and block shots. With the Clippers, Nets, 76ers, Jazz, Bucks, and other competitors looking for ways to improve their rosters at the trade deadline, this is a dream trade opportunity the Lakers should jump upon immediately if available.

Few trades are wins for both teams but this could be the exception as the win-now Lakers get the third superstar, shot blocking, and 3-point shooting they need while the rebuilding Raptors land three promising young stars.

1. LONG NEEDED THIRD SUPERSTAR

Kyle Lowry is a perfect fit as the third superstar to complement LeBron James and Anthony Davis. The 34-year old,16-year veteran All-Star guard is the playmaking, elite 3-point shooting point guard the Lakers need.

The 6′ 0,” 196 lb Lowry would be a major upgrade over Schroder at both ends of the court. He’s averaging 17.1 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 6.6 assists on 34.7 minutes per game while boasting 3-year best 43.3 /38.2/87.3% shooting. Meanwhile, Dennis is averaging 14.6 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 4.4 assists in 31.5 minutes per game, shooting 44.1/31.0/82.5%. He’s special but not the proven playoff tested 3-point shooter and defender Lowry is.

Lowry’s championship resume and playoff experience, gravity as a prolific and accurate 3-point shooter, and across-the-board superiority are exactly what the Lakers need as a third superstar to optimize LeBron and AD.

2. MORE 3-POINT ATTEMPTS AND MAKES

The additions of Lowry (38.2% on 7.5 threes per game), Davis (40.3% on 3.5 threes per game), and Boucher (43.8% on 3.6 threes per game) will go a long way towards improving the Lakers’ weak 3-point shooting performance.

Right now, the Lakers rank 26th in 3-point attempts at 30.3 per game and 13th in shooting percentage at 37.1%. Lowry, Davis, and Boucher took 14.6 threes per game compared to just 6.9 threes for Schroder, KCP, and Harrell. Taking 7.7 more threes per game would elevate the Lakers attempts to 38.0 per game, jump them to 7th in the league, and create needed spacing for LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and the other teammates to attack the rim.

The biggest weakness of the Lakers 9th ranked offense is 3-point shooting. Swapping Lowry, Davis, and Boucher for Schroder, KCP, and Harrell could give the Lakers a top rated offense to go with their top rated defense.

3. RIM PROTECTION AND SPACING AT CENTER

Chris Boucher is exactly what the Lakers need to fix their center problems. He’s the perfect modern center who can stretch the floor to create spacing on offense and protect the rim and defend on the perimeter on defense.

The 28-year old, 6′ 9,” 200 lb Boucher is averaging a career best 13.9 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 1.9 blocks in 23.2 minutes per game. He’s the perfect center to backup Marc Gasol and eventually take over as the Lakers’ starter. While he’s only played 116 games in his career, Chris is enjoying a breakout year with the Raptors, shooting a red hot 43.8% from deep on 3.6 threes per game, which is a monster jump from the 32% he shot before this season.

A bouncy athletic jumper, the untested Boucher is a totally different kind of small ball center than the proven Harrell but his ability to protect the rim and shoot the three ball make him a better center prospect for the Lakers.

Trading Schroder, Harrell, and Caldwell-Pope would be a dramatic move for the Lakers but worth it to acquire a third superstar in Lowry, three great shooters in Lowry, Boucher, and Davis, and a modern center in Boucher.

With a starting lineup of Lowry, Matthews, James, A. Davis, and Gasol and a deep bench of Horton-Tucker, Caruso, T. Davis, Kuzma, and Boucher, the Lakers would be heavy favorites to repeat as 2020–21 NBA champions. Meanwhile, the Raptors add a lightning quick point guard in Schroder to replace Lowry, a dynamic young center in Harrell to replace Boucher, and a proven shooting guard in KCP to upgrade Davis off the bench.

While the Raptors revitalize their team with proven young talent, the Lakers get what they need to optimize LeBron’s championship window and repeat this season as NBA champs and possibly threepeat next season.

Can the Lakers ‘Flip the Switch’ and Get Back to Playing Like Champions?

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Just 4 games ago, the world champion Los Angeles Lakers were cruising along with a league best 14–4 record, 7th ranked offensive rating at 113.6, top ranked defensive rating at 103.9, and top ranked net rating at 9.7.

Then the Lakers’ juggernaut ran aground, losing a 1-point heartbreaker to the Sixers and a 15-point dispiriting loss to the 3–14 Pistons before pulling out a 1-point win over the Celtics and a late 8-point win over the Hawks. During those 4 games, the Lakers’ 107.2 offensive rating was 23rd, 108.8 defense rating 6th, -1.6 net rating 18th, 46.0% field goal shooting 18th, 34.0% 3-point shooting 27th, 39.3 rebounds 28th, and 22.3 assists 23rd.

Whether you write off this 4-game stretch of subpar play as just an anomaly in a long regular season or the Lakers as a team regressing to the mean, the concern is the sudden collapse included almost every player on the roster. For those 4 games, every single Lakers’ starter except for LeBron James and every single reserve except for Alex Caruso had a negative plus/minus. This was a team wide collapse we never saw in last year’s championship run.

Tonight, the Lakers face a major test to see if they can flip the switch and get back to playing like champions in a rematch with a red hot Denver Nuggets team they dominated on their way to their 17th championship last season. The 12–8 Denver Nuggets are fresh off a big win that ended the 16–5 Utah Jazz’ 11-game winning streak with center Nikola Jokic matching a career high 47 points in a 128–117 win where their lead was as high as 28 points.

The Lakers need more than great play from leading MVP candidate LeBron James and bench GOAT Alex Caruso. They need the entire team to get back on track and play with the true focus and fervor of a championship team. That means Anthony Davis needs to start playing like the second best player on the planet, slumping starters like Marc Gasol and KCP need to shed the cobwebs, and key reserves like Kuzma and THT need to contribute more.

It also means the Lakers need to start playing more like a team instead of just throwing the ball to LeBron or AD and standing around. They also need to play faster as they played at the second slowest pace the last 4 games. The offense is stagnant. The team needs to run plays rather than relying on isolation basketball and LeBron James passing. The coaching staff needs infuse some diversity in the plays as the offense has become predictable.

Right now, the Lakers no longer look like the best team in basketball, which is something I never thought I would be saying after just a 4-game stretch early in the season. The truth is the problems we’re seeing are not surprises. They’re issues that everybody had before the season started but have been covered up by a strong start, unsustainable elite 3-point shooting, and unbelievable MVP quality play from 36-year old superstar LeBron James.

Time to find out if this new Lakers squad is for real. No more excuses about the short turnaround, compressed schedule, challenge of being on the road, not being able to bond or have fans in the stands cheering because of Covid. The Nuggets are ready to rock and roll tonight and knock the Lakers off their throne. They’re primed to for revenge and eager for redemption from their 5-game bludgeoning in last season’s Western Conference Semifinals.

How the Lakers respond tonight will tell us whether the last 4 games were just a glitch in a long season or an early sign Lakers fans should recalibrate their championship expectations. Tonight’s a game the Lakers need to win.