JJ Redick

Lakers Need Volume 3-Point Shooting If They Hope to Repeat as Champions!

February 19, 2021 By LakerTom 8 Comments

The 3-point shooting revolution has taken a sudden change this year that threatens the Los Angeles Lakers’ chances of repeating as champions. The key metric to winning games has suddenly become the 3-point differential.

NBA teams are not only focusing on taking and making more threes than opponents but also on playing better perimeter defense to limit opponent takes and makes and to generate an insurmountable 3-point differential. Suddenly, the 3-point differential has become the preeminent box score stat that determines who wins the game. The modern blueprint for winning in today’s NBA is to outscore your opponent from beyond the 3-point line.

The surprise team leading the league right now are the 24–5 Utah Jazz, who have won 9 straight games and 19 of their last 20. The Jazz also boast the league’s top ranked 3-point differential of 5.6 threes and 16.8 points. The reason the Jazz have the best record in the league is simple. They’re not only making a league best 16.6 made threes per game on 39.3% shooting but also only allowing a league lowest 11.0 made threes per game.

NBA 3-POINT DIFFERENTIAL AS OF FEBRUARY 19, 2021

The Jazz even won the 3-point differential in the only game they lost of the last 20 games, hitting 20 of 47 threes for 42.6%. It took the Denver Nuggets hitting an incredible 18 for 28 threes for 64.3% to give the Jazz a rare loss. The league has been slow to give Quin Snyder and the Utah Jazz credit for being more than an early season surprise but the teams they’ve played understand their combination of 3-point offense and defense is daunting.

With Gobert protecting the rim freeing defenders to challenge threes and a cadre of dead eye shooters raining threes, the Jazz now have the 4th best offensive rating, 2nd best defensive rating, and best net rating in the league.

After making a change in defensive philosophy to prioritize defending the three over protecting the rim, the Lakers only allow 11.5 made threes per game, which is tied for the third fewest opponent threes in the league. Unfortunately, the Lakers only make 10.8 threes per game, 28th in the league, resulting in a negative 3-point differential: they allow 0.7 more threes and 2.1 points per game than they make, 18th out of 30 teams.

Alarmingly, the other three teams with the top four 3-point differentials are also teams the Lakers may end up facing on the road to the championship: the 2nd ranked Blazers, the 3rd ranked Nets, and the 4th ranked Clippers. The Portland Trail Blazers have a scary 3-point differential of 3.1 threes and 9.3 points, the Brooklyn Nets a differential of 2.6 threes and 7.8 points, and the Los Angeles Clippers a differential of 2.5 threes and 7.5 points.

What’s unnerving about the Lakers’ negative 3-point differential is there is limited room to improve defensively, which means the only way to close the gap is offensively, which may be impossible without major roster changes. Changes in the roster may be needed because the Lakers simply do not have the high volume 3-point shooters needed to increase the number of made threes and points generated to create a positive 3-point differential.

Right now, the closest the Lakers have to a high volume 3-point shooter is LeBron who’s taking 6.6 threes per game. Next in 3-point shot attempts are Kuzma with 3.7 per game, KCP with 3.7, Wes with 3.3, and Dennis with 3.1. None of these players, LeBron included, are legitimate volume 3-point shooters. Frankly, if the Lakers want to increase made threes and points, they’re going to need to change their roster and upgrade their offense.

Otherwise, they’re going to see more and more teams dominating them from deep like the Nets did last night, hitting 10 more threes for 30 more points. But they’re going to face a 3-point differentiaL gauntlet this year. The Jazz’ Mitchell and Clarson are averaging 8.7 and 8.6 threes per game, the Blazers’ Lillard and McCollum 10.8 and 11.0, the Nets’ Harden, Irving, and Harris 7.9, 6.8, and 6.6, the Clippers George and Leonard 7.9 and 4.9.

Last regular season, the Lakers took 31.6 threes per game and shot only 34.8%. They improved dramatically in the playoffs, taking 34.2 threes and shooting 35.4%. Defensively, they allowed 32.7 opponent threes per game. They made 12.1 threes and allowed 11.8 opponent threes in the playoffs, giving them a differential of 0.3 threes and 0.9 points. So it’s not impossible for the Lakers to win a championship with a low 3-point differential.

But the Lakers’ options are still limited. To start with, they need to make some basic changes in their offense to create more open threes and they need to encourage their players to take those shots when they’re available. Their 3-point attempts have declined over 10% the last 15 games. They took 31.9 threes per game the first 15 games but just 28.3 threes per game the last 15 games. While they’ve continued to win, the margin has gotten slim.

The Lakers best option is to look to move low 3-point volume starting guards Dennis Schroder and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope for a pair of high volume 3-point shooters to help improve their 3-point differential. Candidates the Lakers could target include Buddy Hield (10.3 3PG), Malik Beasley (8.7 3PG), Devonte Graham (8.1 3PG), Lonzo Ball (7.6 3PG), JJ Redick (4.6 3PG), Lauri Markkanen (7.2 3PG), Victor Oladipo (7.3 3PG).

The Lakers’ 3-point differential depends more on the volume than the percentage of threes made. While it’s not impossible for the Lakers to repeat as champions, their negative 3-point differential will make that difficult. The last thing they want is to play the four teams who have the best 3-point differentials in the league: Blazers in the first round, Clippers in the second round, Jazz in the conference finals, and then the Nets in the Finals.

The good news is the Lakers will have an opportunity at the trade deadline for moves to improve their rim protection and 3-point shooting. Let’s hope they recognize their negativer 3-point differential is their Achilles heel.

The Lakers’ Kyle Kuzma Conundrum: Trade Him Now or Risk Losing Him!

November 16, 2020 By LakerTom 16 Comments

Kudos to the Los Angeles Lakers’ Rob Pelinka for pulling off a trade that not only gives the Lakers a needed third scorer and second playmaker in Dennis Schroder but also for not giving up his primary trading chip in Kyle Kuzma.

Getting Sam Presti to accept Danny Green and the 28th pick in the draft in exchange for Schroder means Pelinka still has enough ammunition left to pull off a second major trade to fill needs and upgrade the Lakers’ roster. Kuzma has starter quality talent and ambitions but plays the same positions as Lakers’ superstars James and Davis. Kyle will become a restricted free agent next offseason so it makes sense for the Lakers to trade him now.

The surprise is not that the Lakers traded for Schroder but that they did not have to give up Kuzma as part of the package. The expectation all along has been that any Lakers package had to include Kuzma, Green, and the pick. Since Kuzma will only make $3.5 million this season, the Lakers will need to include other contracts as salary filler to receive true value for him. That’s why everybody assumed he would be likely be traded with Green.

Without Danny Green’s $15.5 million contract, Rob Pelinka may only have JaVale McGee’s $4.2 million and Quinn Cook’s $3.0 million as salary filler since word is Avery Bradley is likely to exercise his $5.0 million player option. That means the Lakers would be limited to trading for a player or players whose combined salaries were less than 125% of the $10.7 million total salaries they were sending out plus $100,000, which equals $13.5 million.

There are several outstanding players who make less than $13.5 million per year who may be available in a trade for a talented young player with star potential like Kzma and would be perfect additions to the Lakers’ roster. How about trading Kuzma, McGee, and Cook for New Orleans shooting guard JJ Redick, who has 1 year left at $13.0 million, or Houston power forward Robert Covington, who has 2 years left and earns $12.9 million?

The Lakers could also utilize the $10.7 million Kuzma, McGee, and Cook package to pursue a sign-and-trade package for a coveted free agent who wanted more money than available for the $9.3 million non-taxpayer MLE. That might be the difference in convincing Serge Ibaka or Danilo Gallinari to sign with the Lakers and the Raptors or Thunder would be more than willing to agree to a sign-and-trade to acquire Kuzma without giving up anything.

There’s another scenario where a team offers Kentavious Caldwell-Pope a contract for more salary or years than the Lakers are willing to pay, in which case the Lakers could include a KCP sign-and-trade in the Kuzma package. For example, if a team were willing to offer KCP a 3-year contract starting at $15 million per year, the Lakers would be able to offer Kuzma, McGee, Cook, and KCP for a star player with an annual salary up to $32.2 million.

While I don’t think Kuzma, KCP, and filler is enough for the Lakers to land a legitimate star, it does give the Lakers a way to offer a player like Serge Ibaka or maybe Christian Wood a salary that’s greater than $13.5 million. Bottom line, the Lakers have a plethora of options to trade Kyle Kuzma to fill critical needs and Rob Pelinka is not done making deals to upgrade the roster. The trade for Dennis Schroder was just the first domino to fall.

Top 4 Moves Lakers Could Realistically Pull Off to Repeat as NBA Champions

November 9, 2020 By LakerTom 8 Comments

While fans would like Rob Pelinka to pull off a blockbuster trade for a big name superstar like Bradley Beal, Zach LaVine, or Victor Oladipo, there are lesser, more realistic, championship caliber moves the Lakers can make.

That doesn’t mean the Lakers won’t try to shoot for the moon and pull off a blockbuster move. We all know Lakers’ Exceptionalism is not just a slogan; it’s a mantra that drives the Lakers just like Mamba Mentality drove Kobe. When you’re defending NBA champions, making sure you hang onto key players like Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Rajon Rondo, Markieff Morris, and Dwight Howard may be the smart route to take rather than major change.

Sometimes, it’s the little tweaks to fill critical needs that can be the difference makers in a team being able to repeat as NBA champions. After all, the Lakers had great chemistry and were not challenged in the playoffs. That’s why simply adding a third scorer, second playmaker, elite wing defender, or modern center without giving up invaluable core components could be the ideal blueprint for the Lakers to pursue this offseason.

With that in mind, here are four moves the Lakers can realistically pull off to repeat as NBA champions without sacrificing any major contributors who were instrumental to the team winning their 17th NBA championship:

1. Trade for Chris Paul

The most realistic move the Lakers can make to improve their chances of repeating as NBA champions would be to trade with the Oklahoma City Thunder for 35-year old, 6′ 1,” 175 lb future HOF point guard Chris Paul.

Since CP3 will make $41.4 million next season, the Lakers will have to send out $33.1 million in salaries for the trade to be legal. For the Lakers to reach that amount, they would need Avery Bradley and JaVale McGee to opt in. That would let the Lakers trade the following six players with expiring contracts: JaVale McGee, Danny Green, Avery Bradley, Kyle Kuzma, Quinn Cook, and either a re-signed Dion Waiters or Talen Horton-Tucker.

The Lakers would have to accept the $41.4 million due Chris next season and the $44.2 million player option due him the following season, which would mean $85.6 million in salary in a pandemic ravaged NBA economy. That’s a steep price for the Lakers to pay unless Paul gives the Lakers a buyout option for the second year of his $44.2 million contract, a possibility since he does want a chance to play in LA with LeBron and win a ring.

That might be the key to the trade since it would give the Lakers a way to move on from Chris without having to pay his full salary should his play decline dramatically or should he become injured, of which he has a history. And while the Lakers would sacrifice considerable depth to make the trade, they would still field a possible starting lineup of CP3, KCP, LeBron, AD, and Howard with a bench of Rondo, Caruso, THT, Dudley, and Cousins.

A healthy CP3 would give the Lakers a third scorer, second playmaker, and elite on-ball defender to go with LeBron James and Anthony Davis and make them odds on favorites to repeat and win another championship.

2. Sign Aron Baynes

One of the Los Angeles Lakers’ top priorities this offseason should be to to sign 33-year old, 6′ 10,” 260 lb Phoenix Suns free agent center Aron Baynes with their taxpayer $5.6 million MLE or non-taxpayer $9.3 million MLE.

While the Lakers succeeded playing a tandem of traditional centers JaVale McGee and Dwight Howard during the regular season, it became apparent both centers were liabilities and became almost unplayable in the playoffs. The problem on offense was JaVale and Dwight were not threats to shoot, which allowed teams to clog the paint against LeBron and AD, and on defense were too slow to defend against 3-point shooters on the perimeter.

While Baynes is not as good a shot blocker McGee or Howard are, he’s an excellent low post position defender who can protect the rim, control the boards, and has a reputation as both a savvy and capable team defender. He’s a great communicator who always makes the right rotations, defends with size and verticality, and is a rugged banger who would enable Anthony Davis to continue to play the four and roam the paint as a help shot blocker.

Where Baynes shines is on offense, where he’s a high percentage 3-point shooter who can stretch defenses and make it difficult for teams to clog the lane to prevent LeBron James and Anthony Davis from attacking the paint. Baynes only made $5.5 million with the Suns last season so the Lakers could have a great chance to sign him for the $5.6 million taxpayer MLE and offer him a starting role and a chance to win a championship ring.

A stretch five like Aron Baynes would let the Lakers play the modern version of ‘small ball’ basketball that transformed them into an offensive and defensive juggernaut in the playoffs 48 minutes per game going forward.

3. Sign Danilo Gallinari

The Lakers would be smart to convince 32-year old, 6′ 10,” 233 lb OKC Thunder veteran power forward Danilo Gallinari to sign with them for the $9.3 million non-taxpayer MLE and a chance to win a championship ring.

While Gallo earned $22.6 million last season, he made it imminently clear winning would be a bigger motivation than money when he makes his free agent decision for this offseason, which could open the door for the Lakers. Danilo has earned over $135 million during his NBA career, which makes it easier for him to consider joining the Lakers for $9.3 million and a chance to play with LeBron and AD and win his first championship ring.

The blueprint for LeBron James’ teams winning championships has always been surrounding him with 3-point shooting, which is why a sharpshooter like Danilo Gallinari would turbocharge and transform the Lakers’ offense. Gallo’s a 38.0% career 3-point shooter who shot 40.5% from deep last season on over 7 attempts per game, which rank as the third highest 3-point percentage and most 3-point shot attempts in his 12-year NBA career.

The Lakers’ 31.6 3-point shot attempts per game ranked 23rd and their 34.9% 3-point shot percentage ranked 21st in the NBA last year. Their best 3-point shooter was KCP who averaged 38.5% on 3.4 shots per game. While Gallo‘s not a great defender, he’s always been able to produce more on offense than he allows on defense, posting an impressive 5.7 Net Rating and 3.7 Plus/Minus last season, second best on the Thunder behind Chris Paul.

Gallo starting at the four would modernize the Lakers’ offense, opening the door for Anthony Davis to finally move to the five or for Gallo to play small ball five with AD providing critical help side rim protection from the four.

4. Trade for JJ Redick

If the Lakers want to upgrade their 3-point shooting, they should pursue a trade for 36-year old, 6′ 3,” 220 lb New Orleans Pelicans’ shooting guard JJ Redick, who shot 45.3% from deep last season on 6.6 attempts per game.

With New Orleans committed to rebuilding and looking to trade Jrue Holiday, it’s almost certain the Pelicans will be looking to see what they can get for the veteran Redick, one of the best 3-point shooters in the league. Unlike Holiday who had two years and $53.5 million left on his contract, JJ has only one year and $13 million left on his deal so the Lakers would have to offer the Pelicans a tempting package to motivate them to trade Redick.

While Redick may only be a one or two-year solution, his sharpshooting is exactly what the Lakers need to unleash LeBron James and Anthony Davis. His gravity beyond the arc could be a legit championship difference maker. The Lakers might be able to tempt the Pelicans to trade Redick with an offer of Talen Horton-Tucker and their 2020 first round draft pick along with the expiring contracts of Avery Bradley and JaVale McGee as salary filler.

For the win now Lakers, they would land one of the most feared 3-point shooters in the league without giving up any of the key players who were playoff contributors to winning their 17th NBA championship last season. For the rebuilding Pelicans, they would receive a promising young star in Horton-Tucker, a first round draft pick, and a pair of championship experienced veterans to help mentor their talented young roster.

A dead-eye 3-point shooter like Redick would give the Lakers a proven third scorer and 6MOY candidate who could come off the bench and rain threes on opposing defenses to unleash LeBron James and Anthony Davis.