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Jeanie Buss

Four Reasons Lakers Would Be Smart To Hard Cap Themselves Next Season

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If you see Jeanie Buss wildly dancing and dropping dollars on TicToc like Ja Morant at Shotgun Willie’s, it’s because her L.A. Lakers have finally figured out how to compete for championships without having to pay luxury taxes.

If the Lakers are committed to bringing back and upgrading the core of last season’s conference finals team, the best roster building strategy to elevate the team to championship level could ironically be to hard cap themselves. Being hard capped at $169 million brings a set of advantages beyond paying zero luxury taxes. Hard capped teams can receive sign-and-trade players and have $16.6 million in exceptions to sign free agents under hard cap.

The Lakers’ ownership, front office, and coaching staffs should be proud of the team’s great finish last season and looking forward to even more this season. The Lakers still need a few roster tweaks to reach full potential.
They need to figure out what to do with D’Angelo Russell. Per Jovan Buha, the Lakers prefer to sign-and-trade him, wasive him, or re-sign him in that order. Fortunately, Pelinka did a great job giving the Lakers great options.

The Lakers also need to decide who will be the fifth starter to replace Vanderbilt. Will it be Hachimura? Or do the Lakers trade for a starting center like Turner? Both of those solutions leave LeBron defending the 3. Ideally, the best solution might be to find a legitimate 3&D small forward so James can play power forward. The only problem is every team in the league is looking for that same exact player, an O.G. Annuby clone.

Besides avoiding luxury taxes, here are four reasons why the Lakers hard capping themselves offers the most flexibility and would be the best roster building strategy to upgrade the team to championship level this summer.

1. New CBA Favors Teams That Hard Cap

The NBA’s new CBA includes major changes designed to prevent teams like the Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Clippers from willingly paying whatever crazy and exorbitant luxury taxes it takes to win a championship.

At the heart of the change is a second luxury tax threshold set at $17.5 million above the $162 million tax line or $179.5 million. Exceed that tax threshold and a team loses its MLE and has other severe limitations. Overall, the penalties are so draconian that $179.5 million will likely become the ‘de facto’ hard cap going forward. The effect will be to even the total salaries a team can pay and further even the competitive landscape.

NBA teams who exceed a second $179 million luxury tax threshold will incur harsh competitive penalties like not being able to use their MLE, take back more salary in a trades, or sign candidates from the buyout market. The league also reduced the Taxpayer MLE to $5 million, meaning a team with salaries over the luxury tax apron will only have $5 million available to sign free agents for whom they do not have either Bird or Early Bird rights.

Overall, the new CBA was targeted directly at the rich owners of the Golden State Warriors, Los Angeles Clippers, and Brooklyn Nets who treated luxury tax penalties as just another necessary cost to win an NBA championship. Look for those teams to lose free agents and trade players under contract to make sure they get under the $179.5 million second tax threshold. Expect the Lakers to be closely looking at those teams’ free agents and rosters.

By opting to hard cap themselves, the Lakers will be able to spend a total of $16.6 million via MLE and BAE instead of just $5 million to sign their own free agents without Bird or Early Bird rights or other team’s free agents.

2. Hard Cap Lets Lakers Bring Back Core

Despite being hard capped, the Lakers could still bring back their 9 best players from last season’s conference finals team, including James, Davis, Christie, Vanderbilt, Russell, Reaves, Hachimura, Schroder, and Walker IV.

James, Davi, Vanderbilt, and Christie had contracts while Russell, Reaves, and Hachimura were re-signed using Bird rights. Schroder was signed with MLE and Walker with BAE. Lively and Livingston were 2023 draft picks. Three open roster spots for minimum salary players brings the Lakers’ active roster to 14-players, 9 of whom were part of the team that made the conference finals and finished as one of the best 4 teams in the league.

What we’re seeing is the Lakers can build a championship contending team while being hard capped provided they pursue a two-superstar and deep roster model rather than the three-superstars model had with Westbrook. The Lakers don’t need to pay luxury taxes to bring back the core of their conference finals team. They can still bring back the 9 best players from that roster while still remaining below the $169 million NBA hard cap.

Rob Pelinka deserves kudos for the job he did in making over this roster. Not only are they near championship caliber, They’re young with real upside and they can bring most of them back despite being hard capped.

3. Hard Cap Gives Lakers $12.2 Million MLE

But the Lakers may not want to spend their $12.2 million MLE or their $4.4 million BAE on Dennis Schroder and Lonnie Walker IV. They could waive them both and instead use the exceptions to sign other team’s free agents.

We know the Bucks may have to dramatically reduce payroll due to the new CBA, which means that the Lakers might be able to convince free agent center Brook Lopez to accept the $12.2 million NT Mid Level Exception. Lopez might love the opportunity to play again for Ham rather than a new coach in Milwaukee and reuniting in Los Angeles with the Lakers where Disneyland is just a short drive away could be a very feasible move.

Top free agents whom the Lakers might pursue with their $12.2 million non-taxpayer MLE could include Brook Lopez, Bobby Portis, Bruce Brown, Naz Reid, Kyle Kuzma, Kelly Oubre, Dillon Brooks, and Alec Burks. Alternatively, the Lakers can split the $12.2 million MLE between two players and the $4.4 million BAE between two players to upgrade the roster so that the backups for each position were not minimum salary players.

Having $16.6 million rather than $5 million in exceptions to sign their own or other teams’ free agents is a huge advantage for a team like the Lakers who usually operate over the cap and just need one or two more players. Being able to offer an unrestricted free agent from your team or another team the $12.2 million non-taxpayer MLE versus the $5.0 million taxpayer MLE is one of the major advantages of a team hard capping themselves.

The Lakers should seriously consider offering their $12.2 million non-taxpayer MLE to an impact two-way player like Brook Lopez who’s exactly what they need since the path to the championship goes through Jokic.

4. Hard Cap Lets Lakers S&T for 3rd Star

While being hard capped would limit the Lakers to a total payroll of $169 million, it would also give them the ability to pull off a sign-and-trade for Kyrie Irving to join superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis in L.A.

LeBron James and the Lakers’ have long coveted superstar Kyrie Irving, who will be an unrestricted free agent this summer, although there were rumors that he already has a ‘handshake’ deal to re-sign with the Mavs.
But there is a scenario where Kyrie Irving decides he has a better chance of winning an NBA championship with LeBron James in LA than with Luka Doncic in Dallas and the two teams pull off a mega double sign-and-trade.

While unlikely, here’s how it could happen. The Lakers sign Russell to a 3-year $60 million deal, exercise Beasley’s team option, and trade the two to the Mavs for Kyrie Irving, who would sign a 3-year $112.5 million contract. Kyrie gets 3 years at $37.5 million to play with LeBron. The Lakers lose Russell and Beasley in trade and waive Bamba. They also no longer have space under hard cap to use MLE and BAE to re-sign Schroder and Walker.

Despite being hard capped, the Lakers could still sign-and-trade for Irving, assuming he would accept $35 million per year, and still be able to bring back James, Davis, Reaves, Hachimura, Christie, and their two draft picks.

Major changes in the CBA, ability to bring back their core, opportunity to offer free agents the $12 million NT MLE, and ability to sign-and-trade for a superstar are the four reasons why the Lakers should hard cap themselves.

Hard capping not only would eliminate any luxury tax for this season but also start the process of reversing their current status as a repeat offender, which has suddenly become much more urgent with the tougher new CBA. There’s no question Jeanie Buss and the Lakers were one of the teams in favor of the harsh new second luxury tax threshold. It should bring back sanity to team building that was undone by the Warriors and Clippers.

One of the most impressive parts of the masterful job Rob did setting the stage for the Lakers to take the next step in building a championship roster was the flexibility that the collection of players he signed gives the team. Rob has all his ducks in a row. Reaves and Hachimura are restricted free agents. Beasley, Bamba, and Vanderbilt have team options on non-guaranteed contracts. The team also has two tradable first round picks.

By hard capping, Rob has three exciting options available to him. He can bring back everybody from last year’s team including Dennis Schroder and Lonnie Walker by using the $12.2 million MLE and the $4.4 million BAE.
Or Rob can use those exceptions for other team’s free agents. The MLE might be enough to sign free agent center Brook Lopez. Or the Lakers can go all-in and try to pull off a mega double sign-and-trade for Kyrie Irving.

Bottom line, the Lakers would be smart to hard cap themselves this season so they can take advantage of the new CBA rules and either bring back last season’ team, upgrade it with a star player, or trade for a third superstar.

Why NBA Playoffs Will Be Slam Dunk If Lakers Win 75% of Last 22 Games

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The Lakers making the playoffs seems like a pipe dream with 7 teams standing between them and a top-6 finish and guaranteed playoff seed in the west but it’s actually a slam dunk if they can win 75% of their games.

Right now, the Lakers are in 13th place, 1.5 games out of 10th place and the Play-In Tournament and 3.5 games out of 6th place and guaranteed playoff spot but fortunately have 13 games against 8 of the 9 teams above them.
Lakers’ head coach Darvin Ham says the team does not want to participate in the Play-In Tournament and is focused on winning a top-6 seed in the Western Conference playoffs by winning 16 of 23 or 70% of the games left.

When you look at how many teams are between the #13 Lakers and the #6 seed in the playoffs, it’s easy to wonder if it’s simply just too late for Los Angeles to make a serious run at getting into the top-6 teams in the West.
Earning 7th or 8th place in the West to get two shots at winning a playoff spot in the Play-In Tournament is certainly a more realistic and achievable goal for the Lakers to have with so far to climb and just 22 games to do it.

But this season has seen a plague of parity the likes of which the Western Conference of the NBA has not seen for years and the Lakers are fortunate that this situation has given them an unexpected chance to win a ring.

Current Western Conference Standings and Records

With Denver, Memphis, and Sacramento holding the top three spots in the West standings, the battle for the remaining three guaranteed playoff spots and the four available spots in the Play-In Tournament will be ferocious.

Right now, the Phoenix Suns, Los Angeles Clippers, and Dallas Mavericks have solid but small leads on the #4, #5, and #6 seeds. All three teams have winning records for the season as well as for the last 10 games they played.
If the Lakers want to avoid the Play-In Tournament, they’re going to need to climb over seven teams including one of the Suns, Clippers, and Mavs to jump from 13th to 6th seed, a formidable challenge with just 22 games left.

Frankly, the more realistic target for the Los Angeles Lakers is to finish in 7th or 8th place so they would get two shots at winning a Play-In game to secure the favorable #7 or #8 seed in the Western Conference playoffs.
Fortunately for the Lakers, most of the teams with whom they would be competing in the Play-In Tournament do not have winning records for the season or for their last 10 games, which gives Los Angeles an advantage.

Here are current Western Conference standings and win-loss records for the 10 teams separated by 3.5 games between 4th place and 13th place plus the teams’ win % last 10 games and games still remaining against Lakers:

PLAYOFFS:
#4 PHX 33–28, 70%, 2 games
#5 LAC 33–29, 50%, 1 game
#6 DAL 32–29, 60%, 2 games

PLAY-IN:
#7 MIN 31–31, 40%, 2 games
#8 NOP 30–30, 40%, 1 game
#9 GSW 30–30, 40%, 1 game
#10 UTA 30–31, 50%, 2 games

#11 OKC 28–31, 40%, 2 games
#12 POR 28–31, 50%, 0 games
#13 LAL 28–32, 50%

Projected Western Conference Standings and Records

If the Lakers want to avoid the Play-In Tournament and enter the playoffs as the #6 team in the West, they’re going to have to do it by stealing the Clippers’ top-6 playoff spot and kicking them down to the Play-In Tourney.

The unprecedented parity that’s infected the Western Conference of the NBA shows no signs of breaking with 15 teams competing for 6 guaranteed playoff spots and 4 postseason spots in the new Play-In Tournament.
The bad news is the Lakers have to climb over 7 teams just to avoid the Play-In Tournament. The good news is they still have 10 games against the seven teams directly above them in the Western Conference standings.

One way to project the win-loss records for the ten teams fighting for the remaining 7 postseason spots is to apply their win % last 10 games to the games remaining on their schedules to project their final win-loss records.
That would give the Lakers 11 wins and a 39–43 record, which probably means missing the Play-In. Winning 75% or 17 games, on the other hand, would elevate the Lakers’ projected win-loss record to 45–37 and #5 seed.

Here are projected Western Conference standings and win-loss records if team’s win % last 10 days is applied to the remaining games. For Lakers, we used 75%, their record since deadline, rather than 50% win % last 10 days:

PLAYOFFS:
#4 PHX 48–34
#5 LAL 45–37
#6 DAL 45–37

PLAY-IN:
#7 LAC 43–39
#8 UTA 41–41
#9 POR 40–42
#10 MIN 39–43

LOTTERY:
#11 NOP 39–43
#12 GSW 39–43
#13 OKC 37–45

Why Every Remaining Lakers Game Is ‘Must Win’ Game

While winning 75% or 17 of their remaining 23 games would essentially guarantee the Los Angeles Lakers make the playoffs, their margin for error is razor slim with every single remaining game being a ‘must win’ game.

Another way of showing how thin the Lakers chances of making the playoff are is to consider how many losses would eliminate them from top-6 seed, 7th or 8th in the Play-In Tournament, or 9th or 10th in Play-In Tournament.
If Lakers lose 7 games, they probably aren’t making playoffs as top-6 team. If they lose 9 games, they probably aren’t making 7th or 8th in the Play-In Tournament. If they lose 11 games, they’re at risk of missing the playoffs.

That means the Lakers have to view every single one of the 22 remaining games on their schedules as ‘must win’ games. They need to come out and dominate every game from the start and not allow teams to hang around.
The Lakers don’t have any margin for error to suffer a loss because they allowed an opponent to hang around and then heroically pull out a win with a great play by their star player or a blown call by one of the refs.

The Lakers’ last two dominating wins were perfect templates for what they need to do every single game. Every Laker has to come out and play like every game is the most important regular season game of their careers.

Four Reasons Why Los Angeles Lakers Are Now Making Smarter Decisions

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The Rob Pelinka apology train can’t add enough cars to carry all the purple and gold fans who want on after Rob surprised everybody with a series of brilliant trades that transformed the Lakers into possible title contenders.

While the Lakers face a challenge just to make the playoffs, their new-look starting lineup and rotations after the trade deadline have already made them the extremely dangerous team nobody wants to meet in the playoffs.
Frankly, Pelinka surprised everybody with a masterclass in roster building, getting six quality players who are great fits next to LeBron and AD for one lightly protected first round pick and six players the Lakers didn’t want.

But the question everybody should be asking is what’s behind the Lakers’ suddenly making smarter decisions? Is it as simple as Rob learning from the Westbrook mistake or Jeanie allowing Rob to make the big decisions?
Were the trade deadline moves isolated transactions or do they represent major changes in the Lakers’ future basketball philosophy and strategy? What’s the real story behind the Lakers making smarter decisions?

How could the front office that traded Kyle Kuzma, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Montrezl Harrell, and #22 pick in 2021 draft for Russell Westbrook and two second round picks suddenly start making smart decisions?
The answer is Rob and Jeanie learned, adjusted, and did a better job this time, prioritizing fit, depth, continuity, and versatility rather than a third star, resetting their LeBron calendar, and embracing the modern game.

Here are four reasons why the Lakers are now making smarter decisions: Rob’s learned from his mistakes, Jeanie’s given him full authority, they reset their LeBron calendar, and they embraced the modern game.

1. Pelinka Learned From Mistakes

Whether the mistake was lusting for a third superstar, ignoring the poor fit, or not standing up to your owner and superstars, trading for Westbrook would have cost any NBA general manager other than Rob Pelinka his job.

But instead of firing him, the Lakers gave Rob a 2-year extension in June of 2022 to sync his contract with Darvin Ham to allay any fears Ham had of the Lakers hiring a new GM who would then want to hire his own coach.
Frankly, that the Lakers gave Pelinka an extension in June 2022 but did not reveal that publicly until October suggests that Jeanie Buss did not blame Rob Pelinka for the Russell Westbrook trade and trusted him to fix it.

We know that James and Davis were initially behind the Lakers trade for Russell Westbrook and that Jeanie Buss has always loved Russ and vetoed trading him to Indiana for Myles Turner and Buddy Hield before camp.
It would not be surprising to eventually find out the Rob had not been in favor of trading for Westbrook, which was why Jeanie Buss doubled down and extended him as the Lakers’ Vice President of Basketball Operations.

Regardless, there’s universal praise for the job Rob Pelinka did completely remaking the Lakers roster with three precision trades that cost six players the Lakers no longer wanted and a lightly protected 2027 first round pick.
The Lakers received starting point guard D’Angelo Russell. shooting guard Malik Beasley, and small forward Jarred Vanderbilt, plus backup shooting guard Davon Reed, power forward Rui Hachimura, and center Mo Bamba.

Rob clearly learned from his mistakes. He refused to overpay in a trade for superstar Kyrie Irving and prioritized filling the Lakers desperate need for size, shooting, and defense while not sacrificing the franchise’s future.

2. Jeanie Gave Rob Full Authority

The best professional sports franchises have owners who, while reserving the final right of approval, hire professional front office executive teams to whom they delegate the job of decision making and running the franchise.

That was never the business management model Dr. Jerry Buss followed as he built the Los Angeles Lakers into a legendary sports franchise that had won a league best 17 NBA championships and was worth over $5 billion.
Jerry Buss was a hands-on visionary who made the franchise’s basketball as well as business decisions. His son Jim tried to follow his footsteps and won two NBA championships before being replaced by his sister Jeanie in 2017.

Jeanie has now been in charge of the Lakers for five years and has won one NBA championship. She has wavered being an active owner and visionary like her father and trusting and relying on a professional like Rob Pelinka.
Jeanie deserves kudos not only for signing Rob to an extension last summer but also for giving him the authority and power at the trade deadline to go out and do whatever he needed to transform the Lakers into a contender.

Jeanie Buss is not the hands-on visionary her father was or her brother tried to be but she‘s smart enough to know she needed a trusted basketball professional manager to be the visionary the Lakers desperately needed.
This is not the same NBA in which her father was able to win 11 titles in the 33 seasons he ran the team. The landscape is completely different both on and off of the court. This is no longer her father’s NBA or L.A. Lakers.

Jeanie Buss bet the future of the Lakers on Rob Pelinka and the ghost of Kobe Bryant by giving him the extension he deserved and the power and authority to set the Los Angeles Lakers on an exciting new directionless.

3. Lakers Reset LeBron Calendar

One of the biggest benefits of Rob Pelinka’s decision to wait until the trade deadline to move Westbrook was the Lakers were able to satisfy themselves that LeBron still had another 3 to 5 years of high quality basketball in him.

Once the Lakers felt comfortable James was not going to dramatically decline in the near future, they were able to reset their clock for finding a replacement for James, which clarified the Lakers rebuilding process.
Suddenly, the Lakers were looking for an extreme roster makeover not only to give then the size, shooting, and defense needed to be win this year but also to be legitimate championship contenders over the next 3 to 5 years.

There’s no question LeBron James has committed to the Los Angeles Lakers and plans to finish his career wearing purple and gold. His signing the 2-year extension was significant proof of his commitment to Lakers.
While the Lakers did show interest when superstar Kyrie Irving demanded a trade, it’s significant that Rob Pelinka ultimately ghosted the Nets when they suggested a counter offer that the Lakers would never accept.

Resetting the LeBron calendar reduced the immediate pressure on the Lakers to find a replacement for James and emboldened them to start the extreme roster makeover before the deadline and finish it this summer.
As the Lakers continued to grow more and more confident LeBron had multiple high caliber years remaining, their makeover plans became more and more aggressive as they worked multiple deals simultaneously.

In the end, resetting the LeBron clock changed everything for the Lakers. Suddenly, they could see a window of at least 3 and maybe 5 more years of LeBron playing at a high level, which changed their entire perspective.

4. Lakers Embrace Modern Game

After decades of old school GMs and coaches, the moves by the new-look Lakers are a final confirmation that the Los Angeles Lakers have wholly and unabashedly embraced the modern NBA and the power of the three.

Much of the Lakers’ struggles the past three seasons can be linked to their lack of vision or identity, which is what happens when ownership and management are more interested in a player’s star power than skillset.
That lack of direction or vision led to wheel spinning and poor decision making on whom to sign or pursue via trade, which led to a Lakers’ front office almost paralyzed with fear of making another disastrous mistake.

Basically, the modern NBA game is about spacing and shooting, both of which the Lakers have seriously lacked the past three seasons. This season the Lakers took the 24th and made the 29th fewest 3-pointers in the NBA.
With the addition of 2 of the league’s 15 highest volume 3-point shooters in D’Angelo Russell and Malik Beasley, the Lakers added significant 3-point gravity to their backcourt that should unleash superstars James and Davis.

In addition to adding Russell and Beasley, the Lakers brought in Jarred Vanderbilt to be their starting small forward and defensive specialist whose job would be to shut down or slow down the other team’s top scorer.
Finally, the Lakers traded for a pair of promising young 3&D front court players in Rui Hachimura to backup superstar power forward LeBron James and and Mo Bamba to backup superstar center Anthony Davis.

Embracing the modern NBA and its reliance on 3-point shooting to create spacing to unleash superstars has enabled the Lakers to make smarter decisions on whom to pursue and how to utilize them in modern game.

Five Reasons Lakers and Superstars Must Compromise on One-Pick Trade

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The Lakers would like to keep both picks to pursue a third superstar next summer. Their superstars would like to see them trade both picks for more size and shooting. The logical compromise could be a one-pick trade.

Let’s be clear from the start, the Los Angeles Lakers are not going to write off this season and cause irrevocable damage to their long-term alliance with LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Rich Paul, and Klutch Sports Group.
Those hoping this would signal the unraveling of the relationship between the Lakers and LeBron James will be as disappointed as failed suitors who were hoping the secret love-of-their-lives was going to ask for a divorce.

The Los Angeles Lakers and LeBron James are essentially a married couple. LeBron is going to retire in purple and gold and the Lakers are going to honor him with the same royal treatment as Kobe Bryant.
While there’s a conflict over whether or not to trade the picks, the partners will simply work out a compromise to keep everybody happy and the marriage intact, which is exactly what’s probably going to happen here.

Here are five reasons why LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers must reach a compromise that will enable the front office keep one of the two picks as a future trading chip but trade the other to upgrade the roster.

Reason 1: LeBron James’ Recent Play!

LeBron James’ recent MVP level play and season long display of athleticism never before seen by a 38-year old NBA player confirms Dennis Schröder’s comments that James believes he could actually play until he’s 45-years old.

Lakers VPBO Rob Pelinka specifically promised LeBron James the Lakers would do everything they could, including trading the two picks, to give the King a legitimate opportunity to win another championship this season.
While a promise is a promise, injuries to Davis and James have changed the landscape and it’s not unreasonable for Pelinka and the Lakers to want to keep draft capital this summer. Agreeing to trade one pick seems logical.

It’s one thing for the Los Angeles Lakers to consider tearing this team down, trading their superstars, and completely rebuilding if LeBron James were on his last legs and Anthony Davis was unable stay on the court.
But it’s lunacy to do this when LeBron James at 38-years old is playing at an elite MVP level and all signs appear to signal that he’s going to be the NBA’s version of Tom Brady, who can still be an impactful superstar at age 45.

The Lakers and LeBron would be fools not to recognize he still has multiple seasons of All-Star level play and multiple potential championships in his bag and saving one pick to give them two picks this summer is important.

Reason 2: Anthony Davis’ Recent Play!

While LeBron pummeled Father Time with a pair of 40-point games, let’s not forget the good news that Anthony Davis worrisome foot injury is now rapidly healing with AD’s return projected sometime in mid January.

The latest news was Davis was scheduled for an MRI when the team got back from the road trip that just ended on Monday. Hopefully, that MRI will look good and Davis can start ramping up to return the court in January.
Needless to say, LeBron will have to continue to carry the load for the Lakers until Anthony Davis returns. Hopefully, that will be the middle of January when the Lakers will have been able to even their record at .500.

Frankly, the prospect of a Lakers team with a healthy, motivated LeBron James still dominating Father Time and a healthy, driven Anthony Davis playing like the MVP and DPOY is a nightmare for the rest of the NBA.
We know how important time off was to Anthony Davis’s great play in the bubble so having him get a month off in the middle of the season could be a bonus for the Lakers as he will be fresher and healthier for playoffs.

Now that Anthony Davis has shown he can take the torch from LeBron James as the best player on the planet, the Lakers need to agree to a compromise one-pick trade to give James and Davis a shot at #18.

Reason 3: The West Is Wide Open!

The third reason the Lakers and LeBron need to agree to a compromise one-pick trade is the West is wide open and 13th seed Los Angeles is only 1 loss away from the Play-In Tournament and 3 losses from the playoffs.

Assuming LeBron James and the Lakers can improve their record to close to .500 by the middle of January and get a healthy Anthony Davis back near the same time, they should still have a realistic shot at making the playoffs.
LeBron has the 16–21 Lakers on a 2-game win streak with 6 games left through January 15th: Miami and Atlanta at home, then Sacramento and Denver on the road, followed by Dallas and Philadelphia at home.

Assuming the LeBron James can carry the Lakers over the next 6 games and Anthony Davis will be back close to the middle of January, the Lakers could find themselves in perfect position for a stretch run on January 15.
With or without a trade, the Lakers will hopefully have enough firepower with AD back to start moving up the standings, passing teams in the Play-In Tournament until they lock up a spot among the Top-6 teams in the West.

Ultimately, the Lakers are likely at this point to wait until the last minute to make their compromise one-pick trade hoping they will be able to get a better return for one pick by waiting until January 115 trade deadline.

Reason 4: The Pelicans’ Pick Swap!

The fourth reason the Lakers and LeBron need to work out a one-pick trade compromise is the Lakers may owe their 2023 first round draft pick to the New Orleans Pelicans due to a pick swap from the Anthony Davis trade.

Were the season to end today, the Lakers would be tied with the Chicago Bulls and Toronto Raptors for the 7th pick in the 2023 NBA Draft while the New Orleans Pelicans are projected to have the 24th pick in the draft.
In that scenario, the Pelicans would swap picks with the Lakers, getting the #7 pick and a 26% chance of a Top-4 pick while the Lakers would pick #24. The Lakers would love to move up to the Top-6 to limit the Pelicans’ pick.

The irony of the looming Pelicans’ 2023 pick swap resulting in the Lakers missing out on a generational talent has contributed to Pelinka’s reluctance to give up L.A.’s 2027 and 2029 first round draft picks without protection.
It almost seems as if Rob Pelinka and the Lakers’ front office has lost their confidence and are almost as afraid of making another monumental mistake that could cost the Lakers another decade of lottery basketball.

The very last thing the Los Angeles Lakers want to happen is to finish so low that the New Orleans Pelicans end up winning the rights to draft Victor Wembanyama. Compromising on a one-pick trade would help prevent that.

Reason 5: The Celtics Threat to #18!

Just like the Pelicans’ pick swap, the Boston Celtics emergence as potential favorites to win the 2023 NBA championship should be strong motivation for the Los Angeles Lakers to make a one-pick swap for a shot to win #18.

The Lakers 2020 Championship in the bubble finally enabled Los Angeles to pull even with the Boston Celtics as the only NBA teams who have won 17 championships. Allowing the Celtics to get to #18 first is unacceptable.
With LeBron James still dominant and Anthony Davis playing like the MVP, the Lakers cannot cede the 2023 NBA championship to the Boston Celtics. They need a one-pick trade to upgrade their starting lineup and rotation.

Even adding a single elite player like Bojan Bogdanovic or O.G. Anunoby could dramatically improve the quality of the Lakers roster and allow L.A. to surround James and Davis with more size, shooting, and defense.
Ideally, the matchup the basketball world wants to see in the 2023 NBA Finals is the Los Angeles Lakers against the Boston Celtics, with the winner becoming the only team in the league with 18 NBA championships.

The Lakers need to pull off a blockbuster one-pick trade to upgrade their starting lineup and rotation and give a dominant LeBron James and MVP level Anthony Davis a chance to beat the Celtics head-to-head for #18.

How Lakers’ Aversion to Luxury Taxes Makes Them Second Tier Competitor

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Jerry Buss understood championships were the key to the Lakers’ success. Sadly, his daughter seems to have forgotten that as her unwillingness to pay big luxury taxes threatens to turn the Lakers into second tier competitors.

After two decades with the New York Knicks or Los Angeles Lakers being the NBA’s most valuable franchises, the Golden State Warriors parlayed four titles in last eight years to take over as the league’s most valuable franchise.
Per Forbes, the Golden State Warriors are worth $7.6 billion followed by New York Knicks at $6.6 billion, Los Angeles Lakers at $6.4 billion, and Chicago Bulls at $4.1 billion. Median NBA franchise value is $2.4 billion.

What fueled the Warriors’ rise to the league’s most valuable franchise was it’s commitment to build the best roster money could buy regardless of the astronomical luxury taxes that would accompany this kind of imperative.
Worth just $1.3 billion when they won their first title in 2015 followed by second and third titles in 2017 and 2018, the Warriors proved Dr. Buss formula still works as they quintupled their value over the last eight years.

While there’s hope the mega luxury taxes issue will be somehow resolved in the next CBA, the truth is the money raised from the luxury taxes has now become a valued source of revenue for the rest of the NBA teams.
Eliminating exorbitant luxury taxes could be difficult to do when so many NBA teams either are either willing to pay the luxury tax toll or totally willing to accept their share of the taxes as a bonus revenue sharing.

Unless Jeanie Buss and her family are willing to pay the exorbitant luxury tax toll that’s now required to compete for a championship in today’s NBA, the Los Angeles Lakers will suddenly become second tier competitors.

How Three Billionaire Team Owners Have Raised the Bar

What’s happened is three teams with billionaire owners — Warriors, Nets, and Clippers — have raised the bar of what it takes to legitimately compete for a championship in today’s NBA to include unlimited luxury taxes.

Last season, the Warriors paid a record $170 million in luxury taxes while the Nets paid $98 million, the Clippers $83 million, the Bucks $54 million, the Lakers $45 million, the Jazz $118 million, and the 76ers $14 million.
This year, Warriors will pay $170 million, Clippers $145 million, Nets $108 million, Bucks at $70 million, Celtics $65 million, Lakers $41 million, Suns $35 million, Mavs $34 million, Nuggets $17 million, and 76ers $2 million.

The problem is the Buss family does not have the resources to compete with mega billionaire owners like the Clippers’ Steve Balmer (Microsoft), the Nets’ Joe Tsai (Alibaba), or the Warriors Joe Lacob (Kleiner-Perkins).
While the six Buss children own 2/3 of the Los Angeles Lakers, they do not have outside sources of income like Balmer, Tsai, or Lacob and must live off the revenue stream they receive from the Lakers operating profits.

Luxury taxes are a major issue. That’s why the front office did not match salaries and keep valuable role player Alex Caruso last season. It’s why the Lakers will not take back more salaries in any trade than they send out.
It’s a position that’s already relegated the Lakers to second tier status as a competitor. They’re willing to spend $40-50 million in luxury taxes but won’t pony up the $100–170 million paid by the Dubs, Nets, and Clippers.

The Lakers must remember championships created their franchise value. If mega luxury taxes are now required to compete for championships, then the Lakers need to accept that as part of the cost of doing business.

How Lakers Became Second Tier Competitor

The above chart shows ten NBA teams are projected to pay $653 million in luxury taxes for the current season. That’s $65 million in taxes per team which will result in a bonus of $32.5 million for each of the other 20 teams.

Luxury taxes will likely be a major point of contention when it comes to the league and the players negotiating a new Collective Bargaining Agreement. There will be the usual hard push by the league for some form of hard cap.
In the end, it’s going to be hard to give up a system where 10 teams pay $65 million each in luxury taxes, which would then be split between the 20 non-tax paying teams, who would get $32.5 million each in profit sharing.

The ten tax paying teams can easily be broken down into four tiers. Tier 1 is the teams willing to spend over $100 million in luxury taxes and includes the Golden State Warriors, Los Angeles Clippers, and Brooklyn Nets.
Tier 2 is the teams willing to spend $40–100 million in luxury taxes and includes the Milwaukee Bucks, the Boston Celtics, and the Los Angeles Lakers. Tier 3 is for teams willing to spend $0–40 million in luxury taxes.

Right now, the Lakers are not willing to accept trades that raise their total annual salaries because that would also mean increased luxury taxes. L.A paid $45 million last season and is projected to pay $41 million this season. Unless the Lakers are willing to match the luxury taxes that the Warriors, Clippers, and Nets are willing to pay, there is no way they are going to be able to remain competitive being outspent by $60-$130 million per year.

There’s no question that the explosive rise in luxury taxes has changed the competitive landscape in the NBA. As a result, the Lakers’ unwillingness to pay exorbitant luxury taxes has made them second tier competitors.

How Being Second Tier Competitor Will Affect Lakers

After the long dark struggles due to Covid, the NBA is now on the verge of entering another golden age where team revenues, salary caps, franchise values, and superstar salaries soar to never before imagined highs.

Acquiring and developing young players who have Bird rights is a critical part of intelligent roster construction. The NBA has a ‘soft’ cap, which means teams can go over the cap to re-sign players with Bird rights.
The Golden State Warriors, Los Angeles Clippers, and Brooklyn Nets have spent major sums of money using Bird rights to exceed the salary cap and paying luxury taxes to lock up valuable players to long-term contracts.

The Lakers are already worried that they may not be able to afford to re-sign sophomore sensation Austin Reaves, who’s clearly the third best player on this roster and will probably earn a bigger payday than Alex Caruso.
Make no mistake, re-signing Austin Reaves or trading for and re-signing a player like Myles Turner will not only increase the Lakers’ annual salaries but also increase the luxury taxes due because of the higher salaries.

The Lakers also want to avoid the repeater tax, which doubles the luxury taxes for any team that has been a taxpayer three out of any four years. Lakers will have paid taxes for three straight years after this season.
That means there could be great pressure on the Lakers’ front office from the Buss family to avoid paying taxes this season and next so that the team would not be a repeat offender and have future luxury taxes doubled.

Jerry Buss always understood that you had to spend money to make money. The Lakers need to understand that exorbitant luxury taxes are just the latest toll teams need to pay today to compete for an NBA championship.