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Frank Vogel

How the Lakers Can Escape the Early Season Chaos and Win Championship!

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After finally getting everybody back from Health and Safety protocols, here’s how the Los Angeles Lakers can escape the early season chaos caused by injuries and Covid-19 and regroup to win their 18th NBA championship.

Having played 38 games or 46% of the season, the Lakers currently have a 19–19 record with at least another critical 13 games remaining through the end of January before superstar Anthony Davis is likely to return. The 7th place Lakers need to band together and win as many of the games while AD is out as possible. Right now, the Lakers are only a game out of 5th place, which should be their goal over the next 13 games left in January.

Besides waiting for AD, the Lakers are also waiting for January 15th, which is when Horton-Tucker and his $9.5 million contract can be traded. THT plus Nunn and his $5 million contract are the Lakers’ primary trading chips. Assuming AD returns at the end of January and the Lakers make whatever trades they’re going to make, the team will then have 31 games remaining to finalize their lineups and rotations and peak in time for the playoffs.

The challenge facing the Lakers to win the championship can be broken into three steps: win while Anthony Davis is out of the lineup, make a big trade for a key new starter, and peak once Anthony Davis returns from injury.

1. Win While Anthony Davis is Out of the Lineup

With everybody back from Health and Safety protocols, the Lakers hope to turn their modest 2-game winning streak into a 7-game winning streak and to finish January 2022 strong by winning 10 of their 13 remaining games.

Finishing 10–3 without AD would give the Lakers a 29–22 record at the start of February and a good opportunity to take over possession of 5th place in the Western Conference standings, passing injured Clippers and Nuggets. The first five games the Lakers play should all be winnable but five of the remaining eight games will be against teams with winning records. Here’s the remaining 13 games on the Lakers schedule for the month of January:

Laker 13 Remaining Games in January 2022

Winning 10 of the 13 games left in January will depend on how well the Lakers are able play without Anthony Davis and with LeBron James playing the five and whether they can hold their own on the glass and in the paint. The Lakers’ schedule next five games gives them an opportunity to log some easy wins and start to create some separation from the teams destined to compete for a spot in the play-in tournament when the playoffs begin.

Finally with a full roster, the Lakers have no more room for excuses or losses. Step 1 to escape the early season chaos and win a championship is for the Los Angeles Lakers to win 75% or 10 of the 13 games left in January.

2. Make a Big Trade for Key New Starter

While the Lakers committed to small ball with AD and LeBron as their starting and backup centers, poor roster construction and untimely injuries have left their small ball lineups greatly lacking both in size and defense.

The Lakers have two different solutions to acquire the size and defense they need. The first option is to trade for a modern center like Myles Turner or Christian Wood who can both protect the rim and shoot the three. Trading for Turner or Wood would enable Frank Vogel to play his preferred two big lineups, Anthony Davis to play his preferred power forward position, and the Lakers to have the versatility to play either big or small.

Trade Horton-Tucker and Nunn for Myles Turner
Trade Horton-Tucker and Bradley for Christian Wood

The other option the Lakers are considering is trading for an elite power forward like Jerami Grant, Harrison Barnes, or Cam Reddish to give their small ball lineups with LeBron and AD more size, defense, and shooting. Like with Turner or Wood, Grant, Barnes, and Reddish will be in demand by other teams so the Lakers will need to aggressively look for a trading partner who values the young trading chips they have in Horton-Tucker and Nunn.

Trade Horton-Tucker, Nunn, and Bazemore for Jerami Grant
Trade Horton-Tucker, Nunn, and Bazemore for Harrison Barnes
Trade Nunn and 2027 First Round Pick for Cam Reddish

Other than trading Westbrook, which the Lakers are willing to do to acquire Ben Simmons, the Lakers would be lucky to be able to trade for Myles Turner, Christian Wood, Jerami Grant, Harrison Barnes, or Cam Reddish.

3. Peak Once Anthony Davis Returns from Injury

Assuming the Lakers make a trade for size and defense and get a motivated, healthy, and rested Anthony Davis back around February 1st, Los Angeles will have 31 games remaining to get into rhythm and peak as a team.

While the Lakers are unlikely to win enough games to get one of the top three seeds, they should be able to position themselves as one of the top four seeds in the West, setting themselves up for viable path to the title. Winning 22 of their remaining 31 games of the season would leave them with a 51–31 record for the 2021–22 regular season, which should be good enough for at least 4th seed in the west behind the Warriors, Suns, and Jazz.

LAKERS 31 REMAINING GAMES IN FEBRUARY, MARCH, AND APRIL 2022

The Lakers road to the NBA championship this year projects to be more of the same crazy roller coaster ride that injuries and Covid have transformed the 2021–22 season into. It will be our third straight Covid colored season. The Lakers were lucky to get an chance to win a championship in the bubble in Covid’s first crazy season. They will have to be just as lucky to come out of nowhere to win another championship in Covid’s third season.

Essentially, the Los Angeles Lakers must win 75% or three out of every four games over the 44 games left in this regular season in order to escape the early chaos and rally to win their 18th NBA championship this season.

Case for Starting LeBron at Center Even After Anthony Davis Returns

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While the Los Angele Lakers may have to rely on going small with LeBron James at the five to survive the six weeks until Anthony Davis returns, there’s a compelling case for keeping the King at the five even after AD returns.

With Davis likely out until February, the Lakers are poised to commit to starting LeBron James at center until AD returns. They’ve already moved DeAndre Jordan out of the rotation and Dwight Howard should be next. Unless the Lakers make a sudden surprise move to add another center, you can expect a heavy dose of small ball with LeBron James starting at the five. That’s the only way the Lakers are going to survive until AD gets back.

So far this season, LeBron at the five has been one of the Lakers’ best lineups, posting an impressive 13.5 offensive rating (2nd best in NBA) and 106.0 defensive rating (5th best in NBA) for a +7.5 net rating (3rd best in NBA). Considering most of those stats were compiled with Jordan or Howard as a second big, the LeBron at the five metrics going forward with Anthony Davis playing his preferred power forward position should be even better.

Because of his low center of gravity, physical strength, and veteran savvy, James is a better on-ball low-post defender than Anthony Davis, who excels as an off-the-ball help shot blocker who can roam like a football free safety. Throw in James’ unrivaled playmaking and bully ball invulnerability and you start to see how having him play the five and AD the four could be the better long-term solution rather than him at the four and Davis at the five.

Playing LeBron instead of AD at the five changes everything. The Lakers get bigger, badder, and better with LeBron at center. Frank gets his two bigs, AD gets his preferred power forward, and LeBron becomes a small ball five.

Why the Evolution of the Lakers May Not Include Frank Vogel as the Coach

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While Frank Vogel may have been the right coach to lead the Lakers to the championship in the bubble, he might not be the right man for the job since LA traded for Russ, which forced them to go small with AD at the five.

Concerns Vogel might not be the right coach to guide the Lakers through a metamorphosis from an old school two-bigs team to a modern small-ball team were likely the reason the Lakers only gave Frank a 1-year extension. While injuries and a roster imbalance have been issues, we’re now seeing how Frank Vogel’s ‘old school’ philosophies and strong defensive bias could ultimately make him a poor fit as head coach of an evolving Lakers team.

The Lakers front office made specific decisions the last two offseasons to upgrade the team’s offense, especially prioritizing 3-point shooting. It was understood this would inevitably involve swapping defense for offense. While Vogel’s a defensive genius, he’s never been known for his expertise as an offensive guru or innovative coach who knows how to fix offenses. Unfortunately, he’s going to have to rapidly evolve offensively to survive.

This is the modern NBA and Vogel’s unapologetic bias on defense may not be what the Lakers want after the Russell Westbrook trade. They need a coach who creates lineups based on net ratings not just defensive ratings.

How Vogel Went From NBA Championship to Coaching Hot Seat

It seems unfair and surprising that Frank Vogel could be on the coaching hot seat a little over a year after his Lakers won the championship in the bubble in Orlando but the trade for Russ changed everything for Frank.

The Westbrook trade essentially forced the Lakers to commit to small ball with Anthony Davis at the five. Just as trading for Russ required AD to sacrifice and move to the five, it also required Vogel to evolve as a coach. Evolving to embrace a more modern style of play with a balance between offense and defense has not been an easy challenge for Frank to make, especially when injuries have ravaged his rotations and size at the three.

After getting killed on the boards and outscored in the paint playing small to start games and halves, Vogel reverting to starting two bigs like in the Lakers championship season. Unfortunately, the two-big lineups struggled. Vogel’s fascination with two-bigs and reluctance to play shooters over defenders has become an obstacle to the Lakers winning on the court. The earlier concerns Frank might not be the right coach now seem prescient.

This is not the same team that won the 2020 Championship and the path to NBA Finals is more difficult than their gold paved road in the bubble. Vogel’s stubborn refusal to start Davis at the five has derailed the Lakers. The Lakers don’t have time for any more senseless experiments at center like the quarter of a season it took Vogel to finally bench DeAndre Jordan or another 10 games to confirm starting Dwight Howard is not the answer.

The Westbrook trade was made knowing Anthony Davis would have to move to the five and the Lakers would have to acquire and play multiple 3-point shooters for the LeBron, AD, and Russ superstar big three to work. For Vogel to revert back to two-big lineups rather than working to improve the rebounding and points-in-the-paint differential of the small ball lineups threw a massive monkey wrench into the Lakers post-Russ strategies.

What Vogel does the next few weeks could determine whether he remains head coach of the Lakers. For certain, he cannot survive putting out starting lineups with no 3-point shooters like he did against the Clippers.

What Vogel Needs to Do to Save His Job as Lakers’ Head Coach?

As the Lakers evolve into a more offensive oriented small ball team, Frank Vogel is also going to have to evolve as a basketball coach and embrace modern basketball if he wants to save his job as the Lakers head coach.

There’s a formula for winning with LeBron James, which is to surround him with elite 3-point shooters so he has space on the court to attack the basket. It’s a proven formula Frank Vogel seems to have completely forgotten. The Lakers’ offense has been so handicapped all season long by Vogel’s inane starting lineups that lack shooters to create spacing and play right into the hands of the opposing teams’ defenses by making it easy to pack the paint.

Specifically, Frank Vogel needs to make the following five major adjustments to his coaching philosophy and offensive and defensive strategies to evolve as a basketball coach and prove he is still the right coach for the LA Lakers:

  1. Embrace the roster you have and the direction the Lakers have to go due to the Westbrook trade. You surely agreed to the trade. It’s time to stop trying to play two bigs and embrace AD at the five.
  2. Prioritize starting and rotation lineups with a balance between offense and defense. Defense only lineups won’t work. Instead build lineups based on players’ net ratings instead of just their defensive ratings.
  3. Stagger shooters in the same way as you stagger playmakers and superstars. The goal should be to always have two shooters, two playmakers, and two superstars on the court 48 minutes per game.
  4. Adjust your defensive philosophy to match the skillsets of your personnel. Switch everything whenever Monk, Melo, and Ellington are involved. Fight over picks whenever it’s Westbrook, Bradley, or THT.
  5. Realize you need to evolve as a coach as the Lakers evolve as a team to continue to be their best option as a head coach. And for the Westbrook trade to work, you need to adjust rather than resist as the head coach.

If Vogel is going to save his job as Lakers’ head coach, he’s going to have evolve his coaching philosophy and embrace a balance between offense and defense that is a better fit not only for this roster but also the modern game. It’s actually a blessing that the Lakers have three full days before they play the Celtics next Tuesday night at what will by then be Crypto.Com Arena as it will give Frank and his coaching staff a chance to rethink what they’re doing.

Whom Vogel starts against the Celtics may tell us where this season is headed. If Vogel starts the same Russ, THT, LeBron, AD, and Dwight lineup with no quality 3-point shooters, calls to replace him will explode.

Six Reasons Why Lakers Could Be a Better Team with LeBron at the Five!

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One of the most exciting developments this Lakers’ season has been Frank Vogel’s recent small ball lineups with LeBron at the five and Melo at the four, which have shown great promise both offensively and defensively.

Last week I wrote Could the Evolution of LeBron James Be Small Ball Stretch Five for Lakers?Today I want to talk about why the Lakers should start playing more LeBron James at the five, even when AD is in the game. LeBron James is a basketball unicorn who can truly play all five positions. In his storied 19-year career, he has played point guard 6% of the time, shooting guard 7%, small forward 60%, power forward 26%, and center just 1%.

After the success of several lineup experiments with LeBron at the five and Melo at the four, Frank Vogel announced the Lakers will be incorporating variations of the what he calls their ‘centerless lineups’ in their repertoire. The Lakers’ ‘centerless lineup’ with Westbrook, Ellington, Monk, Anthony, and James showed great promise in two of the last three games and variation where Howard replaced James in the lineup was equally promising.

Assuming the Lakers play their ‘centerless lineup’ with LeBron at the five for 6 minutes in the first half and 6 in the second half, LeBron could end up at spending 12 minutes or 30% of his 40 minutes per game playing the five. Considering LeBron’s success at the five and AD’s preference for the four, the obvious next question is whether the Lakers should consider a variation of their ‘centerless lineup’ that has James at the five and Davis at the four?

Could the Lakers truly be an even better team with LeBron James at the five and Anthony Davis at the four? Could LeBron James actually could be the better center and Anthony Davis the better power forward for this team? Nobody sees the game the way LeBron James does and starting his move to what will ultimately be the logical lineup position to finish his career could end up being transformative for the Lakers’ current rotation and lineups.

The Lakers urgently need a catalyst to set a fire to their season and playing LeBron James at the five could be that catalyst. Here are six reasons why the Lakers could be a better team with LeBron James playing the five:

1. LeBron Is the Lakers’ Best Option as a Stretch Five Center

No player on the Lakers is better suited to play stretch five than LeBron. His volume 3-point shooting and low post power game enable him to play small or big. He would become the LA Lakers version of Nikola Jokic.

2. LeBron at Center Excels in Organizing and Directing Defense

LeBron at the five is about defense. It’s about LeBron playing Minister of Defense for the Lakers like Draymond Green does for the Warriors, calling out opponents’ plays and choreographing the Lakers defense shifts.

3. LeBron at Center Is More Engaged and Plays Better Defense

There’s no question playing center gets LeBron James more engaged in the game defensively since he acts like the team’s middle linebacker. The bonus is playing James at the five unleashes LeBron to play superstar level defense.

4. LeBron at Center Does a Better Job Boxing Out and Rebounding

As good as AD is as a rebounder, he rarely boxes out his man. LeBron, on the other hand, is one of the few Lakers who usually do a great job rebounding. Nothing beats LeBron starting a fast break with a rebound.

5. LeBron Has Low Center of Gravity to Defend Bigger Centers

Having a low center of gravity that makes you essentially unmovable is the biggest asset LeBron James has over Anthony Davis. His combination of size, smarts, power, and athleticism enable him to defend any kind of center.

6. LeBron Willingly Plays the Five But AD Prefers the Four

Anthony Davis does not want to play the five. His game is more finesse than power and he prefers to face up his defender rather than post him up. LeBron, on the other hand, loves to post up or shoot threes over centers.

What Can Frank Vogel Do To Stop the Bleeding & Make It to Trade Deadline?

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The Los Angeles Lakers have a serious problem. The immediate help they need to stop the bleeding in the form of injured players returning or a big trade to give the team more size in the front court aren’t happening soon.

The Lakers problem is their key injured players — Ariza and Nunn — aren’t likely to return until mid-December and their top trading chips — THT and Nunn —cannot be traded until December 15 and January 15 respectively. That means Lakers’ head coach Frank Vogel will have to find a way to survive with the existing roster for at least the 9 games before December 15 and possibly for the 22 games on the Lakers’ schedule before January 15.

While the Lakers aren’t in serious trouble yet, the warning signs are ramping up and unless Frank Vogel makes some major changes, the 10–11 Lakers could easily find themselves 15–15 on December 15 or 22–21 on January 15. Vogel is no novice in the coaching business and should know that having a record close to .500 on December 15 or January 15 could easily cost him his job as head coach of the Los Angeles Lakers. Frank is now on hot seat.

At the heart of the Lakers’ problems is Vogel’s starting lineup that included DeAndre Jordan and Avery Bradley as the two role player starters alongside the three superstars LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Russell Westbrook. While DeAndre Jordan and Avery Bradley clearly fit what Frank Vogel wants as his starting rim protector and point-of-attack defender, both players have not met expectations and have the team’s two lowest net ratings.

How the Lakers fare over the 9 games before December 15 and the 22 games before January 15 will determine Vogel’s fate. So let’s look at what Frank can do to shake up the rotation, win some games, and save his job.

1. Remove Jordan and Bradley from the Starting Lineup

If the Frank Vogel’s going to survive the 9 games until December 15 or the 22 games before January 15th, he’s going to have to replace DeAndre Jordan as the starting center and Avery Bradley as the starting shooting guard.

Vogel’s overreaction to the Lakers’ small ball lineups getting killed on the boards and outscored in the paint was to revert back to DeAndre Jordan starting again at center, despite his negative impact on the team’s spacing. Frank paired the Jordan move with Avery Bradley returning to the starting lineup the last two games. Vogel’s justification for making both moves was to increase the size and improve the defense of the starting lineup.

The results of the two games confirm Vogel did get better defense as Jordan’s 101.5 and Bradley’s 102.4 defensive ratings were best on team. Unfortunately, their 85.1 and 91.3 offensive ratings were worst on the team. While starting Jordan and Bradley created better defense, they stifled the team’s offense. Jordan’s -16.4 net rating was lowest and Bradley’s -11.2 third lowest on the team. Vogel needs to admit his mistake and replace both.

It’s one thing for a coach to want an elite defensive team and to demand players play defense if they want to start but Vogel needs to realize this team strategically sacrificed some defense to get much better on offense.

2. Get Creative with Non-Traditional Starting Lineup

Pelinka’s moves combined with untimely injuries have derailed any roster stability the Lakers had hoped for. The best Frank Vogel can hope for now is to replace Jordan and Bradley with starters who can help the team win.

The above small ball lineup with LeBron James at the five and Carmelo Anthony at the four with three guards is a perfect example of the innovative starting lineups Frank Vogel needs to embrace to get the Lakers rolling. Substitute Anthony Davis for Carmelo Anthony and Frank has his starting lineup: Westbrook, Ellington, Monk, James and Davis. Or Davis and James if you want LeBron to play the five. Either way, Melo comes off the bench.

This is not the 2020 bubble championship roster but it has definite strengths that Vogel can rely upon when retooling his starting lineup and rotations. the roster also has its Achilles Heel in that it lacks small forward sized players. Fortunately, the Lakers do have three healthy quality bigs in LeBron James (36 mpg), Anthony Davis (36 mpg), and Dwight Howard (24 mpg) who could cover the 96 minutes of time at power forward and center each game.

After Friday night’s triple overtime loss to the Kings, Vogel will be under intense pressure from the media and fans to remove both Jordan and Bradley from the starting lineups. The Lakers are a team in need of change.

3. Narrow Rotation to Ten Players Maximum

Besides setting his starting lineup going forward, Lakers head coach Frank Vogel needs to narrow his rotation to ten players by setting up the starter and primary backup for each position. The Lakers need rotational stability.

Here’s the Lakers’ projected depth chart:

PG: WESTBROOK, NUNN, Rondo
SG: ELLINGTON, REAVES, Bradley
SF: MONK, THT, Bazemore
PF: DAVIS, ANTHONY, Ariza
CE: JAMES, HOWARD, Jordan

Starters and primary backups in caps

The problem with Rob Pelinka’s construction of the Lakers’ roster is the obvious lack of size at small forward. While we keep hearing that 6′ 8″ Trevor Ariza is the solution, he has only played power forward the last four years. Frank Vogel needs to realize two bigs is not the answer to the Lakers’ lack of size at the three. That’s a problem the Lakers will have to wait to solve until January 15 when THT and Nunn will both be eligible to be traded.

Meanwhile, Vogel needs to find starting and rotation lineups that can score, defend, and win games with LeBron, AD, and three guards. That’s what his future as the head coach of the Los Angeles Lakers will depend upon.