Frank Vogel

While the Lakers’ coaching staff and players say all the team needs to do to solve their current dilemma is start hitting their shots, they’re running out of time to fix their offensive woes with just four games before the playoffs.

Adding urgency to the situation, the frigid shooting Lakers have to take on the three-ball crazy Houston Rockets tonight without superstar LeBron James, who’s taking a load management night off to rest a strained groin. Tonight’s game will be a major challenge for the poor 3-point shooting Lakers as they are going to have to make a reasonable number of threes just to keep pace with Rockets and have any chance of winning the game.

The good news is LeBron’s night off should give head coach Frank Vogel the opportunity to start Kyle Kuzma, the only Laker who is shooting the three-ball well, having made 11 of 22 threes during the first four games for 50%. Kuzma’s hot hand from three could be the boost the Lakers’ starting lineup needs and could pave the way for head coach Vogel to finally make the decision to start Anthony Davis at the five to win the championship.

JaVale McGee has been a major bubble bust. He has a team worst -19.6 net rating the first four games and has seen his points, rebounds, steals, and blocks decrease while his minutes, personal fouls, and turnovers increased. There’s a case to be made that starting McGee against the small ball Rockets would be unwise even if he were playing well. Imagining a struggling McGee trying to defend one of Houston’s stretch fours is totally ludicrous.

While Frank Vogel’s still likely to start McGee, this could be the first step towards a new lineup for the playoffs. It could even have been a way for the coach to tinker more with a Davis at the five and Kuzma at the four offense? Vogel may have hinted at that yesterday when he was asked if Lakers were considering a possible lineup change. The frustrated coach responded: “We’ll see. We’re looking at everything, but it’s bigger than that.”

Moving Kuzma into the starting lineup could be the spark that jumpstarts the Lakers’ starting lineup’s shooting woes and ignites the fire to move Anthony Davis into the starting center role as the team starts the playoffs. While Vogel’s been hesitant to change his starting lineup, Kuzma’s hot shooting and greatly improved defense could force him to make the move. It’s a smart move that could make the Lakers a more dangerous team.

I’m looking for the Lakers to shoot lights out tonight. While 3-point shooting has never been their strength, they’re certainly a better shooting team than they’ve showed so far in the bubble. Law of averages should rule here. Meanwhile, the defensive matchups are going to force Frank Vogel to play Anthony Davis at center more than usual because neither McGee or Howard are comfortable or effective guarding players beyond the 3-point line.

This game against the Rockets could be a harbinger of what’s to come for the Lakers. They need to come out hungry and poised and play and shoot well. Hopefully, Kuzma and AD will excel and show Vogel the path forward.

While they beat the Clippers in the Battle for LA and clinched top seed in the West versus the Jazz, the NBA restart has been a struggle for the Lakers as LeBron James has looked mortal and their 3-point shooting problematic.

With just five regular season ‘seeding’ games left before the playoffs begin, the time may have come for Frank Vogel to shake up the Lakers’ starting lineup by replacing longtime starter JaVale McGee with Anthony Davis. While Vogel’s been steadfast in not changing his starting lineup all season, the Lakers’ lackluster play in the first three ‘restart’ games has exposed serious issues that could be better addressed now than in the playoffs.

At the top of the list is the poor performance by the Lakers’ starting lineup of Caldwell-Pope, Green, James, Davis, and McGee, who struggled mightily and put the Lakers in deep holes at the start of games and second halves. The combination of Caldwell-Pope’s and Green’s horrid 3-point shooting and McGee’s clogging the lane on offense allowed opponents to suffocate the Lakers’ offense by doubling Davis and packing the paint against James.

With the #1 seed in the West locked up, Frank Vogel should use the remaining five ‘seeding’ games to experiment with a new starting lineup featuring Anthony Davis at the five and possibly Kyle Kuzma at the four.

Here are four reasons why the Lakers should start Anthony Davis at the five:

---

1. The Lakers’ best lineups have been with Anthony Davis at center.

There’s never been any question the Lakers’ best lineup is one with Anthony Davis at the five. It’s the only lineup with five players who can shoot the three and thus the ideal lineup to create spacing to unleash LeBron and AD. The win against the Jazz last night was a perfect example. After a tight battle the first 30 minutes, the Laker broke the game open midway through the third quarter when they pulled McGee and went with AD at the five.

2. The Lakers’ worst lineups have been with JaVale McGee at center.

The starting lineup of Caldwell-Pope, Green, James, Davis, and McGee played 34 minutes, three times more than any other 5-player lineup in the last three games, and posted a dismal -27 net rating and -21 plus/minus. They were not only outscored to start all three games but also to start the second halves. The problem is JaVale McGee, who has a dreadful -26 net rating and -21 plus/minus for the three games just suffocates the offense.

3. Starting Anthony Davis would enable the Lakers to start Kyle Kuzma.

The season restart has resurrected Kyle Kuzma’s future as a Laker. Kuz has posted a+10.2 net rating and +19 plus/minus for the three games while averaging 13.7 points, 4.0 boards, and 1.3 assists in 28.3 minutes per game. Besides elite defense against Kawhi and Siacom, Kuzma has also been the Lakers’ best 3-point shooter, hitting 9 of 17 threes in the first three games for 52.9%. Replacing McGee with Davis opens the door to start Kuzma.

4. Starting Anthony Davis is the best way to unleash LeBron James.

One of the most troublesome issues in the Lakers’ first three games has been how mortal LeBron has looked at times, primarily because opposing teams are clogging the lane to turn him into a playmaker rather than scorer. Surrounding him with four shooters has always been the formula to win championships with LeBron James. It’s time for the Lakers to remember this and start Anthony Davis at the five and open up the court for LeBron.

---

No NBA team has ever faced as challenging a path to the championship as the Orlando bubble. Now is not the time for Frank Vogel to be overly patient or hesitant to make moves to solve obvious issues. It’s time for AD to start.

It was just a scrimmage but Kuzma’s 25-point performance with 5 of 7 from deep versus the Magic not only backed up Frank Vogel’s statements Kuz had been dominating practices but could also end up saving his Lakers’ career.

It’s one thing to see LeBron James and Anthony Davis playing like they were in midseason form but watching Kyle Kuzma confidently and smoothy drain 10 of 13 shots including his first four three-pointers was a special surprise. Kuzma was the last of the ‘Baby Lakers’ left after the blockbuster trade for Anthony Davis, a talented 25-year old whose disappointing last two seasons dimmed his bright promise and destined him as trade bait this offseason.

While that’s a lot to take away from a scrimmage and two weeks of practice, there are reasons to be optimistic. To start with, Kuzma is finally completely healthy after struggling through the season with multiple ankle injuries. The four months off not only allowed him time to work on his body and shot but also to consider his situation with the Lakers and figure out how he could succeed playing with superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis.

In addition to tweaking his shot mechanics, Kyle appears to have changed his shot selection, specifically to take more spot-up and corner threes, which are the type of shots for which he has always shot a high percentage. Before the season hiatus, Kuz was shooting 50% (26 of 52) on corner threes versus just 24.2% (44 of 182) on above-the-break threes. Above the break, he was shooting over 34% on spot-up threes versus just 15% off the bounce.

While Kuzma’s improved shooting from deep has partly been the result of working on his shot mechanics, it’s obvious the adjustment to improve shot selection and take higher percentage shots has been equally as important. That improved shot selection was clearly evident in the Magic game as the four threes he drained in the first quarter were either open catch-and-shoot or corner threes as opposed to above-the break threes off the bounce.

Turning 25, being in what could be his first serious relationship, and facing the reality he might not be able to control where he ends up playing next season could have contributed to Kyle maturing and learning how to relax. He certainly looked like a different player on the court in these scrimmages, more confident and mentally under control, more patient and willing to let the game come to him, playing with precision and less wasted motion.

While the Lakers don’t want to limit Kuzma to being just a spot-up shooter, there’s little question those are the kinds of shot opportunities that are created playing with superstars like LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Lakers’ head coach Frank Vogel reported that “Kuz has been one of our best players since this restart in these practices, he’s had a couple of stretches where he just dominated the floor and it’s been really encouraging to see…”

Success breeds confidence and Kuzma’s mental Achilles heel has always been his three-point shooting. Taking more of the shots he usually makes and fewer of the shots he usually misses seems like a simple adjustment. Truthfully, it’s the adjustment most unsuccessful players find the hardest to make, learning to optimize their strengths. Hopefully, it’s an adjustment that could help fix Kyle Kuzma’s broken shot and save his Lakers’ career.

Whether Kyle can continue his breakout play and become the deep threat the Lakers need on the floor with LeBron James and Anthony Davis will impact the Lakers’ decisions this offseason and Kuzma’s future on the team.