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Did Lakers Do More Than Just Get Nuggets’ Monkey Off Their Backs?

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It may be just an illusion but the Los Angeles Lakers finally turning the Denver Nuggets 11-game win streak into a 1-game losing streak may have done more than just getting that Denver monkey off of L.A.’s back.

What looked like a hopeless situation with the Los Angeles Lakers on the verge of being swept in the playoffs by the Denver Nuggets for the second straight year has now suddenly been replaced by a bright glimmer of hope.
While no NBA team has ever come back from being down 0–3 in a 7-game series, the Denver Nuggets’ Game-4 stumble may have opened the door for LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers to make a historic comeback.

The Lakers face what is thought to be an impossible challenge to beat the world champion Nuggets three more straight times to pull off the NBA’s first comeback from 0–3 yet the task suddenly does not seem undoable.
The way the Lakers won last night has suddenly put the world back into proper perspective. The Nuggets are no longer unbeatable and down 1–3, all L.A. needs to do is win three more games to achieve the impossible.

Momentum is a fair weather friend and getting the Nuggets’ monkey off the Lakers’ back has changed the controlling dynamic of this series from the Nuggets’ sweeping L.A. to the Lakers pulling off the impossible comeback.
Win in Denver on Monday and the Nuggets will suddenly be the team in the pressure cooker with just a 2–3 lead heading back to L.A. for Game 6, hoping and praying not to become the first NBA team to blow an 0–3 lead.

So let’s look at what the Lakers’ odds are for taking down the Nuggets and winning the 2024 NBA Championship and how Los Angeles’ finally beating Denver has changed the dynamics of this critical first round playoff series.

What Are Lakers’ Odds of Winning?

There’s a reason why in the history of the NBA, no team has been able to come back after trailing 0–3 in a 7-game playoff series. In fact, Out of 154 teams who found themselves in that situation, none has ever come back.

The odds of the Lakers becoming the first NBA team in history to come back from an 0–3 playoff deficit are currently +1800, which means betting $100 on the Los Angeles to beat Denver in this series would win $1,800.
Taking this pipe dream further, the odds of the Los Angeles Lakers winning the NBA championship are currently +21000, which means betting $100 on the Lakers to win their 18th NBA championship would win $21,000.

While the Nuggets dominated the Lakers during their 11-game win streak, every game has been close and contested with the Lakers building first half leads but the Nuggets executing and closing out better to win the games.
The Nuggets obviously had the Lakers number during the 11-game stretch and took full advantage of their superior size and years of continuity to bully and punish the Lakers smaller lineups and unfamiliar players.

But that pattern may no longer hold now that the Los Angeles Lakers have figured out how to hold onto their first half leads and counter the Denver Nuggets’ second half pushes that cost them the series’ first three games.
With newfound confidence in their role players and no Denver monkey on their back, the Lakers have a unique opportunity to beat the champs three straight, including two in Denver, and turn the tables of embarrassment.

The Lakers surprisingly find themselves in a perfect scenario where they can turn a potential 4-game first round sweep into a historic odds-defying first-time-ever comeback from being down 0–3 in a 7-game playoff series.

How Has Lakers’ Win Changed Series?

Can one game turn around a series? The Lakers 11-game losing streak to the Nuggets may have been the Trojan Horse the Nuggets quietly worried about as ball bounces and big shots kept impossibly falling Denver’s way.

The Lakers’ Game 4 triumph over the Nuggets was not just LeBron James and Los Angeles winning a token single game before accepting their 4–1 ‘Gentlemen’s Sweep’ and making their upcoming reservations for Cancun.
The Game 4 win was the Lakers finally breaking through and doing the one thing that been their Achilles heel during the 11 straight losses they had suffered against the Nuggets: their inability to adjust and keep a lead.

The driving theme of every Lakers-Nuggets game this season has been the Lakers’ failure to hold onto double digit leads in the second halves and fourth quarters of games with the blame justly going on L.A.’s role players.
Game after game, the same story unfolded. Although every game was close and the pattern similar with the Lakers taking a lead and Denver coming back, the streak got crazy as the Nuggets were blessed and Lakers cursed.

That’s why Denver stopped talking about the winning streak and why they should be worried about how Game 4 started and ended. The Lakers again again got off to strong start but also learned how to hang onto the lead.
The Lakers have a solid formula to beat the Nuggets and, until Game 4, it’s been more their inability to execute that formula in second halves that’s hurt them than anything Denver has or can do defensively to stop them.

Denver is in a tough spot. They’re suddenly getting outplayed by the Lakers and the basketball gods are starting to want pay back for the ball bounces and big shots that led to that 11-game win streak. Lakers will win it in 7.

Who Needs To Step Up for Lakers?

The Los Angeles Lakers need LeBron James, Anthony Davis, D’Angelo Russell, Austin Reaves to have elite Games 5, 6, and 7 to come back and beat the Denver Nuggets in 7 games and continue the quest for #18.

That’s a big ask vs. Denver considering James age, Davis’ injury proclivity, Russell’s and Reave’s inconsistency but that’s what it will take to beat the world champs three times in a row, including twice in Mile High Denver.
On the other hand, that’s what it’s going to take to come back from down 0–3 against the world champion Nuggets. Come hell or high water, this is LeBron James glory story to write on his eternal campaign to be GOAT.

LeBron is wishing this into existence. What better way to crown his reign as GOAT than take down the world champs 4–3 in a reverse 4-game sweep on his way towards winning his 5th NBA championship and Finals MVP.
Time to cash in on all those bad calls and crazy bounces and hail Mary shots that benefited the Nuggets during that 11-game losing streak and see some ball bounces and big shots coming the Lakers way next 3 games.

The Lakers are outshooting the Nuggets from the field (49.9% to 46.0%), from deep (30.4%to 27.6%), and winning points-in-the-paint (58.5 to 57.5) but losing rebounding (46.3 to 40.50) and made-free-throws (15.0 to 13.5).
Offensively, the Lakers have 109.2 offensive rating, 112.7 defensive rating, and -3.5 net rating for the 4 playoff games. For Game 4, the Lakers posted an elite 115.5 offensive rating, 105.9 defensive rating, and +9.7 net rating.

The Lakers need to come out and play their best basketball game of the year on Monday night and turn the tables on the Denver Nuggets. L.A. has the momentum and the opportunity to pull off a miraculous comeback.

Five Questions That Will Determine Whether Lakers Can Upset Nuggets

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While the Nuggets are a tough matchup for the Lakers, having swept them in last year’s conference finals and beaten them eight straight games, this is not this year’s conference finals and these are not last year’s Lakers team.

The media loves to create headline stories about how the Nuggets are the Lakers’ daddy and how L.A. will be lucky to win one or two games at best from Denver when the two teams meet in the first round of the playoffs.
What the media is not considering is a first round playoff series between the Lakers and Nuggets will be dramatically different than those two teams meeting in the conference finals after getting rolling with two series wins.

Having to face a very dangerous Lakers team in the playoffs first round is definitely not what Mike Malone and the Nuggets would have preferred, especially considering how red hot the Lakers have been the last month.
The Lakers would have finished April undefeated were it not one loss without both James and Davis and one without Davis. They still finished 5–2 with the #5 offensive rating, #15 defensive rating, and #10 net rating.

Meanwhile, the Nuggets blew a 23-point lead and lost 121–120 to the #14 Spurs, not only losing the #1 seed to the Thunder and falling to #2 but also suddenly finding themselves facing the hungry and dangerous Lakers.
Unlike last season when the Lakers were tired, weary, and slowed by injuries by the time they got to the conference finals, this time Los Angeles will be fresher, deeper, bigger, healthier, and hungrier than Denver.

The oddsmakers have the Nuggets as heavy favorites to beat the Lakers in their first round matchup. $100 bet on the Lakers to win would bring back $275. Gamblers would have to put up $350 to win $100 if Denver triumphs.
The path for the Lakers who are the road team to win the series is to steal one of the first two games in Denver, sweep Games 3 and 4 in Los Angeles, lose Game 5 in Denver, and close out the series by taking Game 6 in L.A.

The answers to these five critical roster questions will determine whether the Los Angeles Lakers can pull off a surprise upset of the world champion Denver Nuggets in the first round of the Western Conference Playoffs.

Can AD Control The Joker?

If the Los Angeles Lakers are going to upset the Denver Nuggets in their first round series, Anthony Davis will have to figure out how to match or neutralize Nikola Jokic, who’s now likely to win his second MVP award.

In last year’s conference finals, the Nuggets swept the Lakers in four games, three of which were close games, with Nikola Jokic supposedly dominating Anthony Davis at both ends of the court during the series.
Just like the media likes to portray the Nuggets as having dominated the Lakers in last year’s conference finals, they also love pushing the story that Jokic dominated Davis, even though their individual stats were similar.

In last year’s conference finals, Jokic averaged 27.8 points, 14.5 rebounds, 11.8 assists, 1.3 steals, 1.3 blocks, 3.8 turnover in 42.0 minutes per game shooting 50.6% from the field, 47.1% from deep, and 77.8% from the line.
Anthony Davis meanwhile averaged a similar 26.8 points, 14.0 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.3 steals, 2.8 blocks, 1.5 turnovers in 41.2 minutes per game shooting 49.3% from the field, 50.0% from deep, and 87.5% from the line.

While Jokic and Davis seem to be fairly equal when it came down to the individual stats for last season’s conference finals, it seemed that every time the Nuggets needed a big play, Nikola was there while AD was not.
This was confirmed by Joker dominating AD in plus/minus, where he posted a +9.8 vs. AD’s -9.0. Jokic’s plus/minus for the series was topped only by Murray’s +10.0 whereas AD’s -9.0 was second worst to Russell’s -11.8.

The major challenge for the Lakers is deciding how to guard Nikola Jokic. Do they have Anthony Davis or Rui Hachimura defend Nikola Jokic? Or do they double or trap the Joker in pick-and-rolls to get ball out of his hands?
Ideally, the Lakers’ best option may be to force Jokic to be a scorer rather than a facilitator, which would mean having Davis defend him one-on-one with the other defenders sticking with the other Nuggets and not helping.

The Lakers need to make Nikola Jokic one dimensional by turning him into a scorer on offense with Anthony Davis playing him one-on-one and a target on defense with AD attacking him in the paint and from the line.

Can LeBron Still Dominate?

While Anthony Davis holding his own with Nikola Jokic is critical, the Lakers will also need 39-year old LeBron James to be dominant like he has been this season if they hope to upset the Nuggets in the first round.

Meeting the Nuggets in the first round could actually be an advantage for the Lakers as LeBron James should be much healthier and fresher than he was when L.A. played Denver in last season’s Western Conference Finals.
More importantly, James worked hard this offseason to fix his 3-point shot and the result has been great. Since February 1, LeBron has averaged 2.0 made threes per game on 4.6 attempts per game for 43.5% from deep.

LeBron James’ 21st season might go down as one of the best in his career. Since February 1, LeBron has averaged 26.9 points, 7.0 rebounds, 9.3 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.5 blocks, and 3.7 turnovers in 36.2 minutes per game.
The turnaround in James’ and the Lakers’ 3-point game as a team has been one of L.A.’s major improvements on offense since last year’s conference finals, where James shot just 26.9% and the team just 34.9% from deep.

The other area where James contributions will be dramatically greater than in last year’s conference finals will be defensively. LeBron is now in full playoff mode, which means he is no longer taking off plays on defense.
The defensive job LeBron James did on Zion Williamson to win a spot in th0e 7/8 Play-In game last Sunday was elite and showed that the King is not afraid to take on tough defensive assignments when needed by his team.

One adjustment the Lakers will need to make for the Denver series is to run more plays and rely less on Davis and James isolation plays. The Lakers are a better and more dangerous team when their offense is less predictable.
The perfect example was James turning control over to Reaves, whose elite drive-and-dish to Russell for the clutch corner three that essentially sealed the Los Angeles Lakers’ Play-In win over the New Orleans Pelicans.

For the Los Angeles Lakers to upset the world champion Denver Nuggets in their looming first round playoff matchup, they will need a healthier and fresher LeBron James to outplay Jamal Murray and lead his team to victory.

Can DLO Redeem Himself?

After being played off the court against the Denver Nuggets in last year’s conference finals and almost being traded at the trade deadline, D’Angelo Russell proceeded to reinvent himself as the third star the Lakers needed.

After getting injured and losing his starting point guard role in December, D’Angelo Russell’s future with the Lakers looked shaky at best. While sitting on the bench, however, DLO came up with a career-defining observation.
Rather than deferring to superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis, DLO realized that the smarter thing to do was to be extremely aggressive to take full advantage of the lack of attention paid to him by opposing defenses.

When Darvin Ham re-inserted D’Angelo Russell back into the Lakers’ starting lineup, he suddenly became an entirely different player, increasing his shot attempts and reinventing himself as a volume 3-point shooter.
Over last half of the regular season, DLO averaged 20.4 points, 3.2 boards, 6.5 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.5 blocks, 2.3 turnovers in 35.5 minutes per game shooting 45.0% from field, 42.6% from deep, and 85.7% from the line.

D’Angelo Russell provided the Lakers with the elite high volume, high percentage, lethal, dead-eye 3-point shooter they desperately needed to create space for and complement LeBron and AD as the team’s third star.
Darvin Ham has also shown more patience with Russell and has given him a green light to shoot as many threes as he can. Hopefully, Ham trusts DLO enough to give him the rope he needs when the Lakers play the Nuggets.

For his part, D’Angelo has continued to be aggressive both with his volume 3-point shooting, crafty drives into the paint, and top grade playmaking. He finished the second half of the season taking almost as many shots as LBJ.
In the process of reinventing himself, DLO set a new franchise record for the most 3-point shots made by a Lakers player in a single regular season, by making a grand total of 226 3-point shots during the 2023–24 season.

D’Angelo Russell has a legitimate opportunity to become the Los Angeles Lakers’ point guard of the future if he can redeem himself and deliver as the third Lakers star LeBron James and Anthony Davis desperately need.

Can Lakers Control Murray?

While Nikola Jokic is the sun around which the Nuggets universe revolves, Jamal Murray is the player the Lakers need to control if they’re going to have any chance to upset the Nuggets in the first round of the playoffs.

It was Murray who destroyed the Lakers perimeter defenders to lead the Nuggets with 32.5 points, 6.3 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 2.8 steals, 0.5 blocks, 1.8 turnovers in 41.1 minutes per game with shooting splits of 52.7/40.5/95.0%.
Jamal not only had a team best +10.0 plus/minus per game for the series but also recorded the biggest jump in points per game in NBA history going from 20.0 ppg for regular season to 32.5 for Western Conference Finals.

In last year’s conference finals, Murray was defended by multiple Lakers players, including Dennis Schroder, Austin Reaves, D’Angelo Russell, and Jarred Vanderbilt, none of whom had the defensive chops to slow Jamal.
This season, the Lakers replaced Schroder with Gabe Vincent, who’s finally healthy and has shown promise as an elite point-of-attack defender along with Spencer Dinwiddie, both of whom will be called to guard Murray.

The Lakers’ strategy for Jamal Murray should be similar to their strategy for Nikola Jokic, which is to defend him one-on-one without trapping and doubling and don’t allow him to be both a big-time scorer and facilitator.
The key is not allowing Murray to raise his regular season scoring average from 20.0 ppg to 32.5 ppg in the conference finals. This season, Murray averaged 21.2 ppg this season. Lakers will need to hold him to 25.0 ppg.

As with Jokic, the Lakers have to make Murray work on defense, which should be easier this season since the Lakers have now built strong, solid continuity with a starting lineup that’s become an offensive juggernaut.
With guards Russell and Reaves, forwards James and Hachimura, and center Davis, the Lakers starting lineup boasts players who can easily make Jamal Murray work on defense and hopefully get him into foul difficulty.

The Lakers need to control Jamal Murray offensively with elite one-on-one defense and not allow him to average 30.0 ppg and defensively by attacking him and running offense through Russell, Reaves, or whomever he guards.

Can L.A. Outshoot Denver?

NBA Team 3-Point Shooting Since 2/1/24

The Lakers’ surprise wild card in their upcoming first round matchup with the world champion Nuggets will be their sudden dramatic improvement in 3-point shooting proficiency led by LeBron James and D’Angelo Russell.

Since LeBron James joined the Lakers, the team’s winning formula has been to dominate points-in-the-paint and free-throws-made by +10 points per game to offset their -10 points per game 3-point shooting differential.
But since February 1, the Lakers have continued to win PIP and FTM by 10 points per game but are now close to breaking even when it comes to the threes they made versus the threes made by opponents in any game.

Since February 1, the Lakers’ 39.3% 3-point percentage was the best in the Western Conference and second best in the entire NBA behind the Celtics 39.9%. The Nuggets meanwhile shot 38.1% from deep, which was 7th.
The Nuggets are going to see a much more dangerous 3-point shooting Lakers team in the first round of the playoffs than the one they easily outshot from deep by 40.3% to 34.9% during last year’s conference finals.

In last year’s conference finals, the Nuggets won the 3-point shooting battle over the Lakers by 15.8 points per game. Note that this was in a four-game playoff series where they won each game by an average of just 6.0 points.
Imagine how different the upcoming first round battle is going to be if the Lakers actually outscore the Nuggets from deep. The Lakers newfound 3-point shooting prowess has totally changed their formula for winning.

By changing their winning formula, the Lakers have a unique opportunity to pull off a blockbuster upset that not only eliminates their primary West competitor but also leaves the door to the 2024 NBA Finals wide open.
The Lakers new 3-point shooting prowess has completed a transformation of their offense into a juggernaut where they can win games by raining threes as well as dominating points-in-the-paint and free-throws-made.

The Lakers changing their formula for how to win games so they no longer lose the 3-point shooting battles is their surprise wild card that will erase the Nuggets traditional edge and help the L.A. upset Denver in 6 games.

Lakers To Use $12.4 Million MLE To Pursue Brook Lopez and Bruce Brown

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The first domino in the Los Angeles Lakers’ offseason strategy has just fallen as they’ve declined their $16.5 million team option for Malik Beasley and waived Mo Bamba and his $11.3 million non-guaranteed contract.

Giving up $27.8 million in player contracts without getting anything in return would normally be malpractice but in this case it’s a calculated move to open up $16.9 million in cap exceptions to sign free agents we could not access.
While using the exceptions will hard cap Lakers at $172.3 million, it also allows them to use the $12.4 million NT MLE (non-taxpayer MLE) and the $4.5 million BAE (Bi-Annual Exception) to sign two or more free agents.

Those two exceptions gives the Lakers access to free agents over-the-cap teams like them never get. In this case, the Lakers goal is to use their $12.4 million NT MLE to sign coveted free agent Brook Lopez or Bruce Brown.
In a perfect world, the Los Angeles Lakers could end up signing Bruce Brown to be their starting small forward with the $12.4 million NT MLE and Mason Plumlee to be their backup center with the $4.5 million BAE.

It does not look good for the Milwaukee Bucks or Denver Nuggets to re-sign Brook Lopez or Bruce Brown. The Bucks will likely prioritize re-signing Middleton and won’t be able to match $20 million per year offer for Lopez. The Nuggets are in worse shape as they only have non-Bird rights so the best they can offer Bruce Brown is 20% raise in the form of $7.8 million per year contract, almost $5 million per year less than what Lakers can offer.

While it’s possible Brook Lopez and Bruce Brown will get offers greater than the $12.4 million NT MLE the Lakers can offer, it’s also possible they won’t and Los Angeles will be able to sign one of them with their NT MLE. Most pundits think Lopez is more likely than Brown to get offers greater than $12.4 million. The Rockets are rumored to be willing to offer the 35-year old Brook Lopez a multi-year contract starting at $20 million per year.

The other thing to consider is both Brook Lopez and Bruce Brown have recently won NBA championships and may not be satisfied to take more money from a team that doesn’t have a chance to be a legitimate contender. With Brown, there’s also the carrot of a starting job to offer. While Bruce is only 6′ 4″, he has a 6′ 9″ wingspan and has spent most of this time playing small forward and not shooting guard. He could start at the two or three.

Reports say the Lakers are “increasingly confident” they can sign Bruce Brown with their $12.4 million NT MLE although it’s been reported that Brown will meet with the Nuggets front office at the start of free agency. Who knows whether that means Brown is still considering taking $7.8 million per year to return to Denver or he’s just giving proper respect to the front office and team that gave him the opportunity to win a gold ring.

At any rate, the Los Angeles Lakers are doing exactly what they told you they were going to do. They’re bringing back their conference finals team and looking to upgrade with a free agent like Brook Lopez or Bruce Brown.

Here’s a breakdown of projected salaries for hard capped Lakers

Lakers On Brink Of Elimination Need Miraculous Comeback to Save Season

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LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers are down 0–3 and facing the harsh reality that none of the 149 NBA teams who found themselves down 0–3 was ever able to mount a comeback and win a 7-game playoff series.

Make no mistake. LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and the Lakers are not going wave a white flag or throw in the towel. As long as LeBron James and Anthony Davis can lace them up, they’re going to keep on trying to win. James has always had a problematic relationship with the ‘impossible’ and actually proved it was possible to come back from 1–3 in the NBA Finals. What makes you think LeBron can’t make coming back from 0–3 possible?

The most frustrating and infuriating part of being down 0–3 to the Nuggets is that the Lakers had opportunities to win all three games but essentially were clearly outplayed in the last five minutes of each of the three games. The reality from the first three games of the Western Conference Finals is the Nuggets are now better than the Lakers and Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray are now better superstars than LeBron James and Anthony Davis.

Frankly, I’m not ready to accept those conclusions from a 3-game sample. Nor am I as a fan, ready to concede LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and the Los Angeles Lakers can’t win four straight games from the Denver Nuggets. It certainly won’t be easy, especially with two of the four games in Denver, but the Lakers have no choice but to take the series one game at a time. Right now, the goal is to win Game 4 Monday night and extend the series.

Assuming the Lakers are going to try and win Game 4 Monday night, there are questions to answer, including how hard should Lakers be trying, who should start, and how hard and long to play injury-prone James and Davis.

How Hard Should Lakers Try?

There’s no way this Lakers team doesn’t come out with an all-out desperate aggressive attempt to win Game 4 and force the series to Game 5. This team has never quit and they’re going to die trying before getting swept in four.

Lebron James is 14–11 in elimination games and while no NBA team has ever come back from being down 0–3, he’s the one who’s proven before that ‘once impossible’ tasks can sometimes be changed to ‘now possible’ tasks. Being down 0–3 to the Nuggets is going to be a great character test for this Lakers team. Do they fold like wet laundry or come out angry and defiant and ready to prove they’re not overrated and overhyped as Nuggets claim?

As LeBron showed against the Dubs, nothing is impossible. Win Monday night and the series becomes 1–3. Denver can still pull off a Gentleman’s Sweep. Win in Denver on Wednesday night and then everything changes. Suddenly, the series is 2–3 and the Lakers are just 1 home win away from forcing a Game 7. Win Game 7 in Denver and the Lakers are then just four wins against the Miami Heat from winning their 18th NBA Championship.

The Lakers have to be asking themselves as players and team if they believe they’re still the same team they were before the conference finals began, the team that was totally confident they could beat anybody and win it all? Or did the brash Denver Nuggets steal their competitive soul along with their championship hopes by winning those three games? Or even worse, irreparably damage their self-confidence to be champions in the future?

How the Lakers play tonight will give you their answer. I, for one, fully expect nothing but the kind of win we expected but did not get in Game 3. Lakers have a lot to fight for and prove tonight by preventing a sweep.

Should Ham Change Starters?

Winning Game 4 is an opportunity for Darvin Ham to change the narrative of the 2023 West Finals from his being outcoached by the Nuggets’ Michael Malone to how the Lakers smartly fought back and turned 0–3 into a series.

The first move that Ham needs to make is to bench D’Angelo Russell, who has potentially played himself off of the Lakers and out of a new free agent deal close to the $30 million he’s making in the last year of his contract. While Game 4 could be an opportunity for D’Angelo Russell to start to redeem himself, he’s going to have to be content to do that off the bench. The Lakers need to win this game to avoid an embarrassing sweep.

His logical replacement should be Dennis Schroder, who has the Lakers’ best defensive rating in the series but he has not been providing the outside shooting, points at the rim, or playmaking in the paint the Lakers need. Darvin Ham might be smart to turn instead to Lonnie Walker IV or even untested Max Christie, both of whom have the size and length to defend Murray and the handle, shooting, and playmaking to complement Reaves.

Finally, Darvin Ham needs to start Rui Hachimura, who is the only Lakers player in this series with a positive plus/minus. Hachimura is averaging 10 points per game more than any player not named James, Davis, or Reaves. His ability to play Nikola Jokic 1-on-1 with Anthony Davis providing weak side help has been the Lakers only effective defensive scheme against the Nuggets’ two-time MVP. Hachimura needs play 40 minutes in Game 4.

Darvin Ham will likely start Schroder, Reaves, James, Hachimura, and Davis for Game 4. Russell and Vanderbilt will come off the bench but have short leashes. Lakers need to get off to fast start to lesseon the pressure.

Load Manage James and Davis?

Much as the Lakers would like to pull off a miracle comeback from being down 0–3, the last thing this franchise needs to do is risk a major injury to one of their superstars in a game that has only a remote chance to matter.

Ham and the Lakers should go all out to win this game because it is a test of their heart and character but leaving James and Davis in the game should the Nuggets get ahead by more than 10 points would be too foolish to risk. Both LeBron James and Anthony Davis have long time foot injuries that may require offseason surgery. They both have essentially been playing ‘must win’ games for over two months and they have to be exhausted.

Frankly, the Lakers and their fans desperately need to win Monday night and avoid the bad taste of getting swept. Somehow, some way, Los Angeles has to figure out how to win and keep the series going back to Denver. That’s why Game 4 is so important. The last thing the Lakers want is to spend the entire summer after being swept in a series they thought they could win. All they can do at this point is play one game at a time.

As for James and Davis, the Lakers’ load management has to incorporate the odds the team is playing against when it comes to heavily relying on James and Davis to play heavy minutes under intense playoff pressure. Until the Lakers win a couple of games, the Lakers have to be careful not to risk James and Davis getting injured in playoff games they’re likely to lose. Should the Lakers get the series to 2–3, then it’s all out for James and Davis.

The ideal situation for Game 4 would be for the Lakers to lead the Nuggets by 20 at the half and seal the game in the third quarter so James and Davis could sit the entire fourth quarter. Do that and Lakers will be alive.

How the Lakers Pull Off A Back-Door Sweep and Defeat the Denver Nuggets

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After blowing two golden opportunities to steal a win in Denver, the Los Angeles Lakers still remain on course again to win the series in six games by winning their three home games and stealing one game on the road.

As impressive as Jokic, Murray, and the Nuggets were in their two wins over the Lakers, the reality is they needed a superstar performance that’s probably irreplicable in each game to barely hold home court advantage. Michael Malone can be proud of what his Nuggets accomplished in Denver but this series is far from over and what advantage Denver has right now could be gone by Monday night if the Lakers win their two home games.

The Lakers are a perfect 7–0 in this postseason, winning one home play-in game and six home playoff games in rounds 1 and 2. They dominated all six home playoff games, winning by 18.3 points per game with a 98.3 DefRtg. The Nuggets are going to need another transcendent performance from Jokic or Murray to beat the Lakers at home. Far as Lakers are concerned, they’re right on course to win this series in six games just as planned.

Championships in the NBA are won by superstars and it’s hard to imagine the championship-tested LeBron James and Anthony Davis being outplayed by the Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. They’re have to prove they belong. LeBron James may be old and hurt and Anthony Davis frustratingly inconsistent but there’s no way they’re not going to come out tonight and angrily dominate the Nuggets with the crowd screaming for a massacre.

The Lakers now know they must slow down both Jokic and Murray, which could mean starting both Hachimura and Vanderbilt, who have shown to be the best answers Darvin Ham has to defend the Nuggets’ superstars. They also know they need to dominate the boards and points in the paint, which to me means letting Reaves, Hachimura, and Walker be the outside shooters and having James and Davis dominate the paint and the rim.

The Lakers need to double down on going big and relentlessly punish both Jokic and Murray by targeting them with James and Davis. Put them on the bench with fouls. Wear them out on Defense. Get to the free throw line.
The Lakers know the best way to setup their defense is to get to the line on offense. That means no more ‘hero threes’ from LeBron and Anthony, no more settling for jumpers. Attack the paint and rim relentlessly.

The Lakers are still of the course to win the series is six games. Win Game 3 and 4 at home, steal Game 5 on the road, and close it in Game 6 at home. Lakers pull off improbable back-door sweep and roll into the NBA Finals.