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The Los Angeles Lakers Cap Dilemma: Accept Hard Cap or Pay Luxury Taxes!

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The Lakers road back to championship contention depends on whether they chose to accept a hard cap by pursuing sign-and-trades for other team’s free agents or opt to pay luxury taxes by re-signing all of their own free agents.

There are advantages to being hardcapped, namely being able to sign-and-trade for other teams’ free agents and being able to use the full $9.5 million Mid-Level and the $3.7 million Bi-Annual Exceptions to sign free agents. But being hardcapped has consequences. The team’s total annual salaries cannot ever exceed $143 million, which greatly limits the trade and free agency opportunities the team can take advantage of during the season.

Declining to be hardcapped has advantages in that teams can go over the cap to re-sign their own free agents using various versions of Bird rights. That’s critical for the Lakers who have numerous free agents of their own. For big market teams like the Lakers with strong local revenues, going over the cap allows them more freedom to create deep and versatile rosters with the only penalty being a brutal luxury tax that could cost $25-$50 million.

So let’s take a look at the Lakers’ salary cap situation to see what roster building options they have should they decide to accept being hardcapped or commit to paying the luxury taxes and re-signing their own free agents.

1. The Los Angeles Lakers’ Options If Hardcapped.

LAKERS TRADE KCP & KUZMA FOR KYLE LOWRY

Adding a third superstar like Kyle Lowry, whom the Lakers tried to trade for during the season, to go with LeBron James and Anthony Davis might be a sign-and-trade the Lakers might accept though it would hardcap them.

Let’s look at the Lakers’ salary cap numbers after the above proposed trade to see the impact of being hardcapped on their roster. Accepting Lowry in a sign-and-trade would hardcap the Lakers at $143 million for the season. The key is how much they have to pay for the third superstar. Paying Kyle Lowry $22.0 million per year for three years still allows the Lakers to keep everybody on their roster but Dennis Schroder and Montrezl Harrell.

After trading Kuzma and KCP for Lowry, the Lakers would have four players under contract — James, Davis, Lowry, and Gasol — for $101.2 total salary, leaving them with $41.8 million under the hard cap to build out the roster. That’s enough to cover $10.0 million to re-sign THT, $9.0 million of the full MLE, $5.0 million to for Caruso, $1.9 million for McKinnie, $1.6 million for the #22 pick, $5.0 million for Deng, and $9.3 million for 6 roster spots.

LAKERS $143 M ILLION SALARY CAP SPENDING UNDER A HARD CAP

Signing-and-trading Kuzma and KCP for another team’s free agent earning less than $22 million per year would enable the Lakers to bring back their own free agents other than Schroder and Harrell and pay minimal taxes.

2. The Los Angeles Lakers’ Options If Not Hardcapped.

LAKERS TRADE KUZMA, KCP, HARRELL, MCKINNIE, & PICK FOR ROZIER AND HIELD

The Lakers might opt to avoid pursuing other teams’ free agents and being hardcapped and instead look to upgrade their roster by bringing back their own free agents and trading for players under contract with other teams.

Not being limited to total annual salaries under $143 million would allow the Lakers to go over the salary cap to trade for players under contract to other teams and to award deserved raises to re-sign their own free agents. The Lakers would have no limit to how far they go over the cap to re-sign key free agents of their own like Schroder, Horton-Tucker, and Caruso. The only penalty they would face would be an expensive luxury tax bill.

Here’s a breakdown of how the roster would look after the above proposed trade of Kyle Kuzma, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Montrezl Harrell, and Alfonzo McKinnie for the Hornets Terry Rozier and the Kings Buddy Hield. The Lakers total salaries for adding Rozier and Hield and bringing back everybody but Shroder or Harrell would be $157.0 million, which would cost $33.3 million in luxury taxes and a total payroll of $190.3 million

LAKERS $157 MILLION SALARY CAP SPENDING UNDER SOFT CAP

So letting Schroder and Harrell walk and focusing on trades for players under contract rather than sign-and-trades for free agents could also enable the Lakers to build a championship roster but would cost $50 million more.

The availablity of the ‘right’ player will determine whether the Lakers opt to go after other teams’ free agents and be hardcapped or re-sign their own free agents, trade for players under contract, and incur major luxury taxes.

The Lakers would be wise to eschew pursuing sign-and-trades for other teams’ free agents unless the player is a legitimate third superstar who earns less than $22 million per year to complement LeBron and AD. Otherwise, they would be smart to look to trade for high volume, high percentage 3-point shooting guards and bring back most of their own free agents even if it cost them $190 million rather than $143 million in salaries and taxes.

The competitive landscape of the league has changed dramatically since the Lakers won their Bubble Championship. The Lakers woud be smart to avoid chasing other teams’ free agents and becoming hardcapped at $143 million.

Four Sign-and-Trade Deals Involving Dennis Schroder and Montrezl Harrell

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The only way the Los Angeles Lakers can upgrade their starting point guard, shooting guard, and center positions is to find trading partners able and willing to sign-and-trade for Dennis Schroder and Montrezl Harrell.

Otherwise, the Lakers simple don’t have the trading chips to do more than fill one of those three starting positions. Right now, the Lakers’ only major tradeable contracts are Kuzma’s and KCP’s $13 million annual contracts. Finding trading partners to pay Schroder the $25 million and Harrell the $15 million they’re seeking will be challenging but would give the Lakers the additional trading chips they need to rebuild their starting lineups.

So let’s take a look at which NBA teams could be interested in sign-and-trade deals for either Dennis Schroder or Montrezl Harrell and who also could have a player or players who would be good fits on the Lakers.

1. Kyle Lowry and the Toronto Raptors

The Lakers should obviously revisit the failed Schroder and Caldwell-Pope for Lowry deal that fell through at last season’s trade deadlline because the Lakers would not include young star Horton-Tucker as part of the package.

In retrospect, the Lakers and the Raptors both could have second thoughts about not going through with this deal as both teams’ seasons ended on a low note. The question is what would a resurrected trade look like today. The Lakers are in a pure win-now mode but aren’t willing to invest over $20 million per year on Dennis Schroder while the Raptors want to do right by Kyle Lowry but could benefit by swapping him for a younger point guard.

While the original deal is no longer viable, a straight up double sign-and-trade of Schroder for Lowry could make sense for both teams and prevent them from losing a star point guard to free agency with nothing in return.

2. Buddy Hield and Sacramento Kings

Another deal discussed last season the Lakers should revisit was the trade of Kyle Kuzma for the Kings’ Buddy Hield. The Lakers have long coveted Hield for his 3-point shooting while the Kings have long had their eyes on Kuzma.

Buddy Hield’s high volume, high percentage 3-point shooting is exactly what the Lakers need offensively while Kyle Kuzma enjoyed his best season ever playing under Kings’ coach Luke Walton when he coached the Lakers. With the emergence of rookie Tyrese Halliburton as the Kings’ starting shooting guard, Sacremento is looking to get off Hield’s big contract and could also use a quality scoring big to back up Richaun Holmes at center.

A trade of Kyle Kuzma and Montrezl Harrell for Buddy Hield would give the Lakers the elite 3-point shooting two guard they need while giving the Kings two elite role players who would upgrade their bench and roster.

3. Russell Westbrook and Washington Wizards

Russell Westbrook’s a mediocre 3-point shooter, only averaging 30.5% from deep for his career, and a turnover machine, averaging almost 5 per game, but he’s also a walking and talking triple-double averaging 22.2/11.5/11.7.

It’s hard to fathom what the Washington Wizard’s game plan is going forward but there’s a point where they need to trade Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook and begin the long term task of rebuilding their roster. The win now Los Angeles Lakers need an upgrade a point guard over Dennis Schroder and Russell Westbrook would give them an elite triple-double point guard to complement LeBron James and Anthony Davis.

Trading Dennis Schroder, Kyle Kuzma, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope for Russell Westbrook could give the Lakers the third superstar they need to compete against the Brooklyn Nets and their Superstar Big Three.

4. Devonte Graham and Malik Monk and the Charlotte Hornets

The Los Angeles Lakers are looking for high volume, high percentage 3-point shooters and the Charlotte Hornets need more front court size and diversity and showed interest in trading for Kuzma and Harrell last season.

With the emergence of LaMelo Ball as starting point guard, Terry Rozier has moved to starting shooting guard and the Hornets have a surplus of good 3-point shooting guards to be traded for more front court size and diversity. Charlotte needs upgrades at both the starting power forward and center positions to balance their guard and wing heavy roster. Kuzma would slide right into the starting power forwar slot while Harrell would be 6th man.

Trading Harrell and Kuzma for Graham and Monk should be a win-win for both the Lakers and the Hornets. The Lakers get desperately needed 3-point shooting in the backcourt while the Hornets get great depth at the 4 and 5.

Point Guard, Shooting Guard, Center! Which Should Be Lakers Top Priority?

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The Lakers need a new starting point guard, shooting guard, and center if they want to rebound and win their 18th championship next season. Which position or positions will they prioritize and which stars will they pursue?

With no cap space for free agents and limited trading chips in the form of valued players under contract and tradeable draft picks, the Lakers face a daunting challenge upgrading the team’s starting lineup this offseason. Unless they’re willing to trade valuable young role players like Caruso and Horton-Tucker or accept being hard capped as the result of bringing in a player via a sign-and-trade, the Lakers options are severely handicapped.

So let’s look at the players the Lakers might target as new starting point guard, shooting guard, and center to get an idea of what kind of starting lineup the front office might be able to put together for next season:

FINDING A STARTING POINT GUARD

The Lakers need a starting point guard who takes and makes more threes, does a better job running the offense, and has a proven record of creating more and better assists with fewer turnovers than Dennis Schroder.

Upgrading the point guard position will be difficult since Schroder is an unrestricted free agent and the Lakers don’t have cap space to replace him if he leaves as a free agent this summer unless he agrees to a sign-and-trade. Ideally, trading him to a team that needs a point guard like the Knicks with cap space to create a trade exception or sign-and-trading him to a team like the Raptors without cap space might be the Lakers’ best two options.

Point guard is one position where there may be legitimate star players who might be attainable if the Lakers decided to go all-in to get a star point guard. In order of priority of fit, here are the Lakers point guard candidates:

  1. Kyle Lowry. The Lakers best option might be to revisit a possible double sign-and-trade deal with the Raptors for Schroder for Lowry. The Lakers would have to include a sweetener but Lowry would be their third star.
  2. Chris Paul. A double sign-and-trade of Schroder for CP3 is another option should Paul opt out of his contract with the Suns as expected and decides to join up his friend LeBron James to create a Lakers Big Three.
  3. Lonzo Ball. Like with Lowry and CP3, reuniting with Lonzo would require the Lakers to accept a hard cap for adding a player via a sign-and-trade but in compensation would not cost as much to pull off.
  4. Derrick Rose. Using the Taxpayer $6 million MLE or Non-Taxpayer $9 million MLE to sign Rose would enable the Lakers to save their trading chips to upgrade their starting shooting guard and center positions.

FINDING A STARTING SHOOTING GUARD

The Lakers need a starting shooting guard who is a proven high volume, high percentage 3-point shooter who can play defense and has the gravity to open up the floor for LeBron James and Anthony Davis to attack the rim.

Upgrading starting shooting guard should be the Lakers’ top priority as it’s the position with the most available high volume, high percentage 3-point shooters, including several players who would be legitimate third stars. Landing one of these elite 3-point shooters will likely require the Lakers to go all-in with package that could include quality role players like Kyle Caruso, Alex Caruso, Talen-Horton Tucker, and their first round pick.

The Lakers need to an elite high volume, high percentage 3-point shooter who can play creditable defense to replace low volume 3-point shooter KCP. In order of priority of fit, here are the Lakers shooting guard candidates:

  1. CJ McCollum. Landing a star shooting guard like CJ would require the Lakers to go all-in with a package of Kyle Kuzma, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Talen Horton-Tucker, and their 2021 first round draft pick.
  2. Buddy Hield. Trading for Hield might be the Lakers best option as they already have had talks with the Kings about Hield and Sacramento has always coveted Kyle Kuzma. Hield would be a great fit on Lakers.
  3. Terry Rozier. The Hornets are deep at guard and short in the front court so might be interested in trading Rozier for a sign-and-trade for Harrell. Rozier is an elite volume 3-point shooter and quality playmaker.
  4. Malik Beasley. Since Beasley makes considerably less than any of the other high volume, high percentage 3-point shooters, the Lakers might be able to acquire him in return for Kyle Kuzma and Alex Caruso.

FINDING A STARTING CENTER

While the center position has become undervalued in today’s NBA, the Lakers desperately need to stop settling for temporary rent-a-center solutions and solidy the center position with a modern stretch center.

Over the last two seasons, the Lakers have failed to find a modern center who can shoot the three and finish lobs at the rim on offense and protect the rim and switch and rotate and defend on the perimeter on defense. McGee, Howard, Harrell, Gasol, and Drummond all had flaws that led to them being unplayable in the playoffs. Fortunately, the Lakers have the perfect prototype modern offensive and defensive center in Anthony Davis.

Wirh Anthony Davis fagility and desire not to play the five, the Lakers need a dependable starting center who can fill the team’s greatest two needs at the five: stretching the floor o offense and protecting the rim on defense.

  1. Myles Turner. The NBA’s leading shot blocker the past two seasons, Turner would be the perfect front court mate to pair with Anthony Davis in a Twin Towers lineup that would anchor a championship defense.
  2. Chris Boucher. The 6′ 9″ Boucher is another player who could be a great small ball center for the Lakers. His unique combination of length and athletic hops would be a great complement to Anthony Davis.
  3. Kristaps Porzingis. Word is the Mavs will be looking to move Porzingis as part of their franchise makeover since he and Doncic do not like each other. Playing next to Davis, Porzingis could be perfect for the Lakers.
  4. Nerlens Noel. While he can’t stretch the floor, Noel has speed, quickness, and mobility to be the perfect modern defensive center. Unlike Rudy Gobert, Nerlens cannot be playoff the floor defensively.

PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER

Since they don’t have enough resources to land each of their top choices for starting point guard, shooting guard, and center, the Lakers will have to figure out what they need and how much to budget for each position.

If they use all their trading chips to land Lowry at point guard or McCollum at shooting guard, the Lakers may have to settle for signing a less expensive free agent with their MLE like Noel at center or like Rose at point guard. There are unlimited combinations of three new starters at point guard, shooting guard, and center that would be major upgrades for the Lakers and would unleash LeBron James and Anthony Davis to be even better.

For example, one combination that would be lethal for the Lakers would be Derrick Rose starting at point guard, Buddy Hield at shooting guard, and Myles Turner at center to complement LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Another great combination that could give the Lakers a third superstar to go with LeBron James and Anthony Davis would be Kyle Lowry starting at point guard, Buddy Hield at shooting guard, and Nerlens Noel at center.

In the end, this summer may be the most important offseason in LeBron James tenure with the Lakers. What Rob Pelinka and the Lakers front office do to upgrade the starting lineup will determine the future of the franchise.

Five Major Mistakes That Doomed the Lakers’ Hopes to Repeat as Champions

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Anthony Davis’ injury killed the dream but five major mistakes revamping the roster around LeBron James and Anthony Davis will be real reasons the Los Angeles Lakers’ quest to repeat as NBA champions will ultimately fail.

It’s easy to look in the rear view mirror and see what went wrong but in retrospect the Lakers not only ignored flashing red warning signs all season long but also doubled down on two late season major personnel mistakes. They traded for the wrong point guard, signed centers who were poor fits, failed to draft or trade for a volume 3-point shooter, declined to trade for All-Star point guard Kyle Lowry, and signed center Andre Drummond.

Besides dooming their chances of repeating as champs, these five major mistakes may also have derailed the Lakers’ opportunity to fix the problems this summer as the threat of free agency losses and luxury taxes loom.

1. Trading for point guard Dennis Schroder.

The Lakers first mistake was trading Danny Green and their first round pick for point guard Dennis Schroder. The Lakers hoped Schroder could be their point guard of the future and help LeBron James with playmaking duties.

Aside from the fact that Schroder turns the ball over too much, only shoots 33.3% from three, and has a barely acceptable 2.1 assists-to-turnovers ratio, Dennis wants more money and a bigger role than the Lakers have to offer. Since Schroder’s an unrestricted free agent, the Lakers will have to either dramatically overpay him to convince him to stay or pull off some form of a miracle sign-and-trade to prevent losing him for nothing to another team.

The ultimate irony of the trade is Danny Green had a great season with the Sixers and shot over 40% on 6.3 threes per game while Schroder reverted to being a below average 3-point shooter and inefficient starting point guard.

2. Signing centers Marc Gasol and Montrezl Harrell.

The second big mistake the Lakers made was not trading for a modern center like Myles Turner who could protect the rim on defense and stretch defenses on offense rather than signing rent-a-centers Harrell and Gasol.

Trading defense for offense is essentially what the Lakers did when replacing McGee and Howard with Marc Gasol and Montrezl Harrell, but the moves left the team defensively challenged without rim protection. The result was a poor fitting Lakers center tandem that featured an over-the-hill stretch five in Gasol who could no longer jump or dunk and an undersized small ball, low post center in Harrell who could not defend.

With Davis relegated to playing the five less than 10% of the time compared to over 25% of the time last season, the Lakers production from the center position, especially when it came to rim protection, took a big step back.

3. Failing to draft, sign, or trade for 3-point shooters.

For whatever reason, the Los Angeles Lakers continue to ignore the longtime acknowledged formula for winning with LeBron James, which is to surround him with elite high volume, high percentage 3-point shooters.

Last year, the Lakers ranked 23rd with 11.0 made threes on 30.6 shots per game for 34.9% vs. league average of 34.1%. This year they ranked 25th with 11.1 made threes on 31.2 shots for 35.4% vs. league average of 34.6%. The Lakers’ 3-point shooting has taken a major step backward in the playoffs as they rank second worst in the league with just 9.3 made threes on 31.8 shots per game for 29.1%, a fatal drop from last year’s 35.4% in the playoffs.

The Lakers continued rejection of the importance of high volume, high percentage 3-point shooting and abject failure to fix the problem when building this year’s rosters is one of the team’s biggest mistakes.

4. Declining to trade for point guard Kyle Lowry

The biggest major mistake was failing to add a third superstar so they could not only weather the injuries to LeBron James and Anthony Davis but also have enough firepower to match the Brooklyn Nets in the NBA Finals.

That’s the decision that left the Lakers without the star depth to survive the injuries to LeBron and AD and left them vulnerable to what’s looking more and more like a possible first round flame out to the upstart Phoenix Suns. We saw how important a third superstar was for the Brooklyn Nets whose superstar Big Three with Kevin Durant, James Harden, and Kyrie Irving allowed them to overcome significant injuries to all three superstars.

The Lakers blew an opportunity at the trade deadline to land veteran point guard Kyle Lowry, who would have given the Lakers a third superstar and allowed the team to weather the current injuries to LeBron and AD.

5. Signing free agent center Andre Drummond

After declining to trade for Kyle Lowry and failing to make any moves at the trade deadline, the Lakers made their fifth and final fatal mistake by signing the enigma center Andre Drummond from the buyout market.

A seriously talented but flawed 27-year old center who had never played for a winning team, Drummond proved to be the Laker final fatal roster mistake, throwing the team’s center rotation and team chemistry into total turmoil. Worse, the addition of a third center left Frank Vogel without enough time to integrate Drummond into the Lakers style of play, especially defensively, with the result that signing Andre was subtraction by addition.

The result was lineup and rotation chaos as the Lakers tried to integrate Drummond while re-integrating James and Davis returning from injury as the team prepared to defend their championship in the playoffs.

While these roster mistakes will likely cost the Lakers the chance to repeat as NBA champions, the bigger issue is how the mistakes have acerbated the challenge the Lakers will face this summer to repair the damage.

The Lakers have a serious cap space issues next season. They are likely to lose Andre Drummond, Montrezl Harrell, and Dennis Schroder to free agency and could even lose fan faves Alex Caruso and Talen Horton-Tucker. They will also only have the $5 million taxpayer MLE to use to pursue free agents and, should they lose to the Suns in the first round, could turnover the entire roster except for superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis.

The Lakers are just one game away from facing their first elimination playoff game in the last two years. Suddenly, they’re facing a first round flame out that will be more embarrassing than the Clippers departure last year.

5 Things: The Return of the King

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I dare anyone reading this to find a better historical record of two Franchises whom…it doesn’t matter who owns them, who coaches them, who plays for them…it don’t matter, they will find a way to wither away.