Darvin Ham

Opening night losses are a poor measuring stick for projecting how a team will play all year long but nothing throws shade on the bright sunshine of a new season like losing to your nemesis the exact same way as last season.

So while the 119–107 loss to the NBA Champion Denver Nuggets Tuesday night was just one game, it exposed lingering worries and concerns Rob Pelinka’s offseason success and the Summer of Austin Reaves had hidden. Specifically, none of the moves the Lakers made this offseason addressed how the Lakers were going to overcome the end-of-game advantages the Denver Nuggets superstars have over the Los Angeles Lakers superstars.

Call it a sobering dose of reality but the opening night loss to the Nuggets simply highlights the Lakers lack of go-to star who can close out games and a lockdown perimeter defender who can shut down opposing star scorers. While the Lakers have a deep and talented roster, they’re trying to have their cake and eat it too by winning another championship before LeBron James retires while simultaneously rebuilding the team for the future.

Here are three way-too-early big picture takes after losing the first game to the Nuggets why it’s likely the Lakers will need to make blockbuster moves at the trade deadline to legitimately compete for their 18th championship.

---

1. Anthony Davis May Not Be Alpha Superstar

To say Anthony Davis’ second half performance in the Lakers loss to the Nuggets was disappointing is a major understatement after the preseason hype and build-up how AD was going to finally take the torch from LeBron.

Davis’ scoreless second half after scoring 17 points in the first half was a shocking failure both by the player and the Lakers’ coaching staff for not understanding what was needed and making the necessary adjustments. Nobody questions Anthony Davis has the physical ability and talent to take the torch from LeBron James and be the alpha superstar the Lakers need but the harsh reality may be AD lacks the requisite alpha mental makeup.

We’ll find out a lot more tonight about whether Anthony Davis can be the alpha superstar the Lakers need. Right now, it looks like both Devin Booker and Bradley Beal of the Suns will miss tonight’s game against the Lakers. This should be a good opportunity for the Lakers to wash away the bad taste from losing to the Nuggets on opening night by dominating the short-handed Phoenix Suns and evening their 2023–24 season record at 1–1.

Davis will be matched up tonight against Jusuf Nurkic, which should be a far easier challenge than facing the MVP Nikola Jokic. Davis and Ham have said the right things but the Lakers need to unleash Anthony Davis tonight.

---

2. Lakers Need Go-To Star To Close Out Games

The big difference between the Los Angeles Lakers’ superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis and the Denver Nuggets’ superstars Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray is the later are both scorers who can close out games.

That was the formula the Nuggets used to pull off an amazing four-game sweep of the Lakers in last season’s conference finals, where just 24 points separated the two teams over the four games, and in last night’s opener. Part of the problem is 38-year old James no longer has the elite burst and athleticism of his youth or shooting stroke of a game closer and Davis is simply not a good enough playmaker to make teams pay for doubling him.

To win a championship, the Lakers need a go-to offensive star whom they can count on to make high percentage shots to close games and an elite perimeter defender to slow or shut down the opposing team’s best scorers. The Lakers could target a third superstar like Zach LaVine or a pair of proven veterans like Buddy Hield and Alex Caruso who would fill the team’s dual needs for a go-to offensive closer and shut down perimeter defender

It’s only one game with eighty-one more to come but the Lakers will likely be in the market for a lethal dead-eye shooter to close games and an elite point-of-attack defender to slow down the opposing teams’ top scorers.

---

3. Lakers Commit To Load Managing LeBron

With the Lakers rallying to within 4 points with 8:48 left in the 4th quarter, Darvin Ham pulled LeBron James from the lineup and rested him until 6:04 left in the game. During that 2:44, the Nuggets lead ballooned to 12 points.

The purpose of the substitution was to limit LeBron James’ minutes to under 30 per game as part of the Lakers new ‘load management’ policy for soon -to-be 39-year old superstar, who ended up playing 29.0 minutes. James was a little miffed at the move as he had the team rallying and pulling him immediately changed the dynamic of the game. Ham probably should not have pulled LeBron at that point so expect adjustments.

The commitment to load manage James, however, seems to be set in stone. LeBron’s in maybe the best health he’s been since the 2020 championship run and is talking about continuing to play with both of his young sons. We’re likely to see judgement errors as Ham and LeBron work out exactly how the Lakers’ new load management policy should work for but limiting James’ minutes per game to under 30 for regular season is certainly smart.

The objective is to have a healthy, rested LeBron James ready-to-go on the first day of the playoffs. If that means limiting James’ minutes per game to under 30, then so be it. Lakers are committed to saving LeBron for playoffs.

Heading into training camp, the Lakers are going to have to figure out what they’re going to do to adjust to no longer having a speedy, pesky, point-of-attack defender like Dennis Schroder to slow down opposing point guards.

One option head coach Darvin Ham should consider is having the Lakers ‘switch everything’ on defense, which would make it simpler and easier for the team’s backcourt defenders to stay in front of whom they’re guarding. For a team like the Lakers who lack elite backcourt defenders with lateral speed and quickness to stay in front of today’s lightning quick point guards, ‘switching everything’ could be the key to playing championship defense.

‘Switching everything’ is not only a better fit for the Lakers backcourt personnel, it’s also a better fit for the drop coverage the team’s bigs play. The Lakers have been very vulnerable to penetrating guards’ floaters.
Switching allows the Lakers to avoid defenders lock-and-trailing opposing point guards over screens only to get put into jail and be unable to stop those guards from making easy floaters over our bigs’ drop coverage.

‘Switching everything’ has also evolved from just being the option teams without good point-of-attack defenders were forced to play to advanced multi-level switching defenses that mimic the best matchup zone defenses. While switching makes it easier for defenders to stay in front of their men, making a modern advanced switching defense work demands disciplined players on a string and a defensive captain with a high IQ to direct it all.

Let’s look at the pros and cons of ‘switching everything’, how ‘switching everything’ is a better fit for the drop coverage the Lakers bigs play, and why the Lakers should emulate the Warriors’ ‘switch everything’ defense.

---

Pros and Cons of ‘Switching Everything’ on Defense

‘Switching everything’ has pros and cons like every strategy. At its simplest, it’s an option for weak point-of-attack defensive teams. At its most complex, it’s an advanced modern defense that elevates switching to new levels.

At its best, ‘switching everything’ can be like an advanced simulation of a match-up zone where all five defenders react in synchrony like puppets choreographed by an omniscient defensive guru pulling the right strings.
At worst, it makes it easy for opposing teams to isolate their best scorer on the other team’s weakest defender, even though iso basketball is usually inefficient and can take good teams out of what they’re best at doing.

That’s the thing about ‘switching everything.’ It lures teams into trying to do something that’s inherently inefficient and often not in their wheelhouse. Isolation basketball has not proven to be winning basketball in the NBA. But ‘switching everything’ is more than just an option for teams lacking point-of-attack defense. Teams like Golden State use scram and triple switches to turn simple switching into an advanced switching defense.

Smart switching defenses don’t just switch on ball screens. They try to switch off the ball at the same time they switch on ball to anticipate and counter the matchup or advantage the offense’s screen is trying to create.
‘Switching everything’ also does not literally mean ‘switch everything.’ There may be opponents, games, or situations where the better strategy might be to have Vanderbilt or Davis shut down an opposing scorer.

The pros of ‘switching everything’ on defense outweigh the cons, especially for a team like the Lakers that does not have elite point-of-attack defenders but does have the high IQ leaders on defense needed to make it work.

---

‘Switching Everything’ Works Better with Drop Coverage

‘Switching everything’ works better with the drop coverage the Laker bigs play as it prevents opposing point guards from using screens to put trailing defenders in jail to get high percentage floaters against our retreating bigs.

Unless teams have a Jrue Holiday or Marcus Smart, it’s almost impossible to prevent the great ball-handling point guards in today’s league from beating their defenders 1-on-1 and getting into the paint to create havoc and score. While teams can try to direct the ball-handler by hedging or steal the ball by trapping, the simplest and smartest tactic for defending ball picks is to ‘switch everything’ to always keep a defender in front of the ball-handler.

The drop coverage the Lakers’ bigs play is vulnerable to opposing point guards using screens to get by their defender and into the paint where they keep the defender on their hip and make floaters over retreating centers. Without smaller, quicker point-of-attack defenders like Dennis Schroder, the Lakers need to rethink their strategy for dealing with perimeter picks and start ‘switching everything’ rather than trying to fight through screens.

‘Switching everything’ not only makes the jobs of the Lakers’ perimeter defenders easier but also simplifies the jobs of the team’s bigs, whose main duty in drop coverage is not to allow an opposing big to get behind him.
By making it harder for opposing point guards to get into the paint, ‘switch everything’ reduces the times Lakers’ bigs have to deal with penetrating guards getting into the paint and attacking drop coverage with floaters.

‘Switching everything’ on defense is a better fit for the drop coverage the Lakers’ bigs play because it prevents opposing point guards from using screens to get into the paint and use floaters to beat the drop coverage.

---

Lakers Should Play Advanced ‘Switch Everything’ Defense

The Lakers with LeBron James and Anthony Davis, like the Warriors with Draymond Green, are one of the few NBA teams whose stars have the defensive IQ and chops to make an advanced switching defense work.

While the Lakers have traditionally preferred not to switch, the time has come for them to upgrade their defense and embrace a modern matchup driven advanced ‘switch everything’ defense like used by the Warriors.
Modern advanced switching defenses like the Golden State Warriors run are a mix of art and science that only works when there’s an elite floor general like Draymond Green or LeBron James to direct the defense.

One of the advantages the Lakers have over other legitimate contenders is they not only have one but two defensive superstars in LeBron James and Anthony Davis capable of playing Draymond Green’s defensive guru role. Since Darvin Ham is going to stagger James’ and Davis’ minutes so that one of his two superstars is on the court for all 48 minutes of every game, that means the Lakers will always have an elite defensive QB on the court.

We’ve already seen Darvin Ham and his coaching staff modernize the Lakers’ half-court offense dramatically with five-out sets that take better advantage of the team’s higher volume and percentage 3-point shooting. Look for Ham to do the same with the Lakers’ defense by adopting ‘switch everything’ as the team’s base defense with advanced scram and double and triple switches like Golden State uses to become the new D normal.

With LeBron James and Anthony Davis, two of the superstars with the greatest defensive BBIQ in the history of the game, the Lakers are uniquely positioned to deploy a modern sophisticated ‘switch everything’ defense.

With the signing of Christian Wood, the Lakers now have what could be the best 12-man rotation in the NBA if they can figure out how to get minutes for everybody and how to keep their older injury-prone superstars healthy.

While the NBA’s new Player Participation Policy has tightened rules about resting stars, the time’s come for the Lakers to embrace load management to keep LeBron James and Anthony Davis healthy and extend their careers.
Right now, the Lakers current roster is so deep and diverse the team has a unique opportunity to give all 12 legitimate rotation players viable minutes while also giving James, Davis, and other players well needed ‘rest’ games.

The Lakers’ problem is they have 12 legitimate rotation players but only enough minutes in any given game to realistically play 10 players. Luckily, having 12 quality rotation players is also an opportunity for the Lakers. Instead of settling for a 10-man rotation and turning 2 players into injury insurance, the Lakers should deploy an innovative 12-man rotation that ‘plays’ a different 10 players and ‘rests’ a different 2 players every game.

Having a 12-man rotation that allows the Lakers to rest 2 players every game while still putting a championship caliber lineup on the court should make the Lakers an even better and deeper team going into the playoffs. Because all their rotation players will have chances to play important minutes and some even to start games, their confidence, experience, and ability to play winning basketball should be dramatically improved.

Opportunity knock and the Lakers have the depth and diversity to answer. Their unorthodox 12-man rotation can both give the Lakers’ 12 rotation player needed minutes and their superstars and starters needed ‘rests.’

---

Lakers Projected Depth Chart

Here’s the Lakers’ projected depth chart for next season per the Athletic’s Jovan Buha with Russell, Reaves, Hachimura, James, and Davis starting and Vincent, Christie, Prince, Vanderbilt, and Wood as the primary backups:

The above depth chart easily translates into a 10-man rotation comprised of the 5 starters and 5 primary backups at each of the five positions. The big problem with this 10-man rotation is that it leaves out Reddish and Hayes.

---

Lakers Projected Rotation Minutes

Here are Buha’s projected minutes per game for the Lakers’ 10-man rotation that includes the five starters and primary backups but does not include Cam Reddish, Jaxson Hayes, or the two rookie draft picks:

It’s easy to see from the above chart per player that the optimum Lakers rotation is probably 9 players as 4 minutes in each half for 8 minutes in a game is not enough for for Jarred Vanderbilt to get into any rhythm.

---

How 12-Man Rotation Would Work

Here is a basic guide as to how the Lakers’ 12-man rotation would work to give all 12 of the team’s legitimate rotation players viable minutes to play while allowing James, Davis, and other players to rest every 7th game.

The Lakers 12-man rotation is just a blueprint or guideline rather than a firm set of inviolable rules Darvin Ham and LeBron James and Anthony Davis have to follow when deciding who plays and rests for each game.

Basically, the Lakers need to narrow the rotation for each game to the 10 players for whom they have minutes by not playing 2 players, who could be players who are actually injured or players who are getting a ‘rest day.’
The only load management limitation is the Lakers cannot rest both James and Davis, their two players classified as ‘stars,’ in the same game or rest either of them in nationally televised or in-season tournament games.

For the Lakers’ 12-man rotation to achieve its goals of giving all 12 rotation players viable minutes while resting superstars, all 12 legitimate rotation players need to participate in and benefit from the ‘rest days’ program.
While the reasons for load managing James and Davis are most important, teams are learning more and more that embracing load management can help keep the entire team healthier with fewer and less severe injuries.

The NBA just came out with new rules and penalties for team’s resting star players during nationally televised games, of which the Laker have 28, or resting two stars, which L.A. has in James and Davis, in the same game.
The NBA will not require players who are older than 35 years old or have severe injury history to play in back-to-back games not nationally televised. Of the Lakers 15 back-to-back games, 11 have nationally televised games.

That means James could rest during the first game and Davis during the second game of 4 or the 15 back-to-backs. Both would have to play in the 11 televised back-to-backs but one star could rest in the non-televised game.
Here are some other numbers to consider. The regular season includes 82 games. Lakers have 28 nationally televised games where they cannot rest either James or Davis, leaving just 54 games where they could rest one star.

By deploying a 12-man rotation, the Lakers are essentially embracing load management and committing to the idea that you can ultimately get more games and minutes from your major players by strategically resting them.

---

Lakers 12-Man Rotation Is Winner

The Los Angeles Lakers are trying to have their cake and eat it too by building a team that can win at least one more championship before LeBron James retires but still be a title contender after he has gone.

Rob Pelinka and Darvin Ham essentially have the Lakers now perfectly positioned to potentially pull off that seemingly miraculous double win as this Lakers team is clearly the deepest since LeBron signed with L.A.
The key to the Lakers winning their 18th championship is still the health of superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis but the Lakers suddenly have the depth now to give both superstars a dozen rest days during the season.

While a 15% reduction in games played isn’t going to guarantee James and Davis will remain healthy, the Lakers would be dumb not to make whatever moves they can to smartly reduce their superstars’ minutes and workload. That can be done by giving them a dozen rest games and limiting them to under 30 minutes per game. The NBA’s new Player Participation Policy has now essentially legitimized the need for teams to load manage their stars.

Besides giving LeBron and AD smart opportunities to rest during a long regular season, playing a 12-man rotation should give the Lakers a chance to become a better team and earn a higher seed when the playoffs start.
For the Lakers, that could mean the difference between Cam Reddish and Jackson Hayes getting realistic opportunities to show they could be this season’s low risk, high reward players who rebuilt their brand in L.A.

Bottom line, spreading games and minutes between 12 legitimate rotation players would not only help the Lakers load manage their stars and players but also make them a better and stronger team heading into the playoffs.