Lakerholics

LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers are down 0–3 and facing the harsh reality that none of the 149 NBA teams who found themselves down 0–3 was ever able to mount a comeback and win a 7-game playoff series.

Make no mistake. LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and the Lakers are not going wave a white flag or throw in the towel. As long as LeBron James and Anthony Davis can lace them up, they’re going to keep on trying to win. James has always had a problematic relationship with the ‘impossible’ and actually proved it was possible to come back from 1–3 in the NBA Finals. What makes you think LeBron can’t make coming back from 0–3 possible?

The most frustrating and infuriating part of being down 0–3 to the Nuggets is that the Lakers had opportunities to win all three games but essentially were clearly outplayed in the last five minutes of each of the three games. The reality from the first three games of the Western Conference Finals is the Nuggets are now better than the Lakers and Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray are now better superstars than LeBron James and Anthony Davis.

Frankly, I’m not ready to accept those conclusions from a 3-game sample. Nor am I as a fan, ready to concede LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and the Los Angeles Lakers can’t win four straight games from the Denver Nuggets. It certainly won’t be easy, especially with two of the four games in Denver, but the Lakers have no choice but to take the series one game at a time. Right now, the goal is to win Game 4 Monday night and extend the series.

Assuming the Lakers are going to try and win Game 4 Monday night, there are questions to answer, including how hard should Lakers be trying, who should start, and how hard and long to play injury-prone James and Davis.

How Hard Should Lakers Try?

There’s no way this Lakers team doesn’t come out with an all-out desperate aggressive attempt to win Game 4 and force the series to Game 5. This team has never quit and they’re going to die trying before getting swept in four.

Lebron James is 14–11 in elimination games and while no NBA team has ever come back from being down 0–3, he’s the one who’s proven before that ‘once impossible’ tasks can sometimes be changed to ‘now possible’ tasks. Being down 0–3 to the Nuggets is going to be a great character test for this Lakers team. Do they fold like wet laundry or come out angry and defiant and ready to prove they’re not overrated and overhyped as Nuggets claim?

As LeBron showed against the Dubs, nothing is impossible. Win Monday night and the series becomes 1–3. Denver can still pull off a Gentleman’s Sweep. Win in Denver on Wednesday night and then everything changes. Suddenly, the series is 2–3 and the Lakers are just 1 home win away from forcing a Game 7. Win Game 7 in Denver and the Lakers are then just four wins against the Miami Heat from winning their 18th NBA Championship.

The Lakers have to be asking themselves as players and team if they believe they’re still the same team they were before the conference finals began, the team that was totally confident they could beat anybody and win it all? Or did the brash Denver Nuggets steal their competitive soul along with their championship hopes by winning those three games? Or even worse, irreparably damage their self-confidence to be champions in the future?

How the Lakers play tonight will give you their answer. I, for one, fully expect nothing but the kind of win we expected but did not get in Game 3. Lakers have a lot to fight for and prove tonight by preventing a sweep.

Should Ham Change Starters?

Winning Game 4 is an opportunity for Darvin Ham to change the narrative of the 2023 West Finals from his being outcoached by the Nuggets’ Michael Malone to how the Lakers smartly fought back and turned 0–3 into a series.

The first move that Ham needs to make is to bench D’Angelo Russell, who has potentially played himself off of the Lakers and out of a new free agent deal close to the $30 million he’s making in the last year of his contract. While Game 4 could be an opportunity for D’Angelo Russell to start to redeem himself, he’s going to have to be content to do that off the bench. The Lakers need to win this game to avoid an embarrassing sweep.

His logical replacement should be Dennis Schroder, who has the Lakers’ best defensive rating in the series but he has not been providing the outside shooting, points at the rim, or playmaking in the paint the Lakers need. Darvin Ham might be smart to turn instead to Lonnie Walker IV or even untested Max Christie, both of whom have the size and length to defend Murray and the handle, shooting, and playmaking to complement Reaves.

Finally, Darvin Ham needs to start Rui Hachimura, who is the only Lakers player in this series with a positive plus/minus. Hachimura is averaging 10 points per game more than any player not named James, Davis, or Reaves. His ability to play Nikola Jokic 1-on-1 with Anthony Davis providing weak side help has been the Lakers only effective defensive scheme against the Nuggets’ two-time MVP. Hachimura needs play 40 minutes in Game 4.

Darvin Ham will likely start Schroder, Reaves, James, Hachimura, and Davis for Game 4. Russell and Vanderbilt will come off the bench but have short leashes. Lakers need to get off to fast start to lesseon the pressure.

Load Manage James and Davis?

Much as the Lakers would like to pull off a miracle comeback from being down 0–3, the last thing this franchise needs to do is risk a major injury to one of their superstars in a game that has only a remote chance to matter.

Ham and the Lakers should go all out to win this game because it is a test of their heart and character but leaving James and Davis in the game should the Nuggets get ahead by more than 10 points would be too foolish to risk. Both LeBron James and Anthony Davis have long time foot injuries that may require offseason surgery. They both have essentially been playing ‘must win’ games for over two months and they have to be exhausted.

Frankly, the Lakers and their fans desperately need to win Monday night and avoid the bad taste of getting swept. Somehow, some way, Los Angeles has to figure out how to win and keep the series going back to Denver. That’s why Game 4 is so important. The last thing the Lakers want is to spend the entire summer after being swept in a series they thought they could win. All they can do at this point is play one game at a time.

As for James and Davis, the Lakers’ load management has to incorporate the odds the team is playing against when it comes to heavily relying on James and Davis to play heavy minutes under intense playoff pressure. Until the Lakers win a couple of games, the Lakers have to be careful not to risk James and Davis getting injured in playoff games they’re likely to lose. Should the Lakers get the series to 2–3, then it’s all out for James and Davis.

The ideal situation for Game 4 would be for the Lakers to lead the Nuggets by 20 at the half and seal the game in the third quarter so James and Davis could sit the entire fourth quarter. Do that and Lakers will be alive.

After blowing two golden opportunities to steal a win in Denver, the Los Angeles Lakers still remain on course again to win the series in six games by winning their three home games and stealing one game on the road.

As impressive as Jokic, Murray, and the Nuggets were in their two wins over the Lakers, the reality is they needed a superstar performance that’s probably irreplicable in each game to barely hold home court advantage. Michael Malone can be proud of what his Nuggets accomplished in Denver but this series is far from over and what advantage Denver has right now could be gone by Monday night if the Lakers win their two home games.

The Lakers are a perfect 7–0 in this postseason, winning one home play-in game and six home playoff games in rounds 1 and 2. They dominated all six home playoff games, winning by 18.3 points per game with a 98.3 DefRtg. The Nuggets are going to need another transcendent performance from Jokic or Murray to beat the Lakers at home. Far as Lakers are concerned, they’re right on course to win this series in six games just as planned.

Championships in the NBA are won by superstars and it’s hard to imagine the championship-tested LeBron James and Anthony Davis being outplayed by the Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. They’re have to prove they belong. LeBron James may be old and hurt and Anthony Davis frustratingly inconsistent but there’s no way they’re not going to come out tonight and angrily dominate the Nuggets with the crowd screaming for a massacre.

The Lakers now know they must slow down both Jokic and Murray, which could mean starting both Hachimura and Vanderbilt, who have shown to be the best answers Darvin Ham has to defend the Nuggets’ superstars. They also know they need to dominate the boards and points in the paint, which to me means letting Reaves, Hachimura, and Walker be the outside shooters and having James and Davis dominate the paint and the rim.

The Lakers need to double down on going big and relentlessly punish both Jokic and Murray by targeting them with James and Davis. Put them on the bench with fouls. Wear them out on Defense. Get to the free throw line.
The Lakers know the best way to setup their defense is to get to the line on offense. That means no more ‘hero threes’ from LeBron and Anthony, no more settling for jumpers. Attack the paint and rim relentlessly.

The Lakers are still of the course to win the series is six games. Win Game 3 and 4 at home, steal Game 5 on the road, and close it in Game 6 at home. Lakers pull off improbable back-door sweep and roll into the NBA Finals.

The bad news is the Los Angeles Lakers lost two close, winnable games on the road to the Denver Nuggets. The good news is the Lakers now have an opportunity to win the next two games in Los Angeles to even the series.

While the Nuggets have a 2–0 lead in the Western Conference Finals over the Lakers, all they have done is to hold home court advantage by winning their two games in Denver. Now it’s the Lakers’ turn with two home games. Unfortunately, losing two games in a row for the first time in two months will likely have the Lakers questioning their series strategies and schemes, especially since they had a legitimate opportunities to win both games.

The reality facing Los Angeles is they lost the first two games of this series because the Nuggets’ underappreciated superstars Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray outplayed Lakers’ superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Jokic averaged an unbelievable 28.5/19.0/13.0 in 28.5 minutes per game while shooting 55.3/50.0/85.7% while Murray averaged 34.0/7.5/5.0 in 39.9 minutes per game while shooting 52.3/45.5/92.3% for the 2 Denver wins.

Meanwhile, James averaged 24.0/10.5/9.5 in 40.0 minutes per game while shooting 51.4/0.0/80.0% while Davis averaged 29.0/12.0/3.5 in 41.4 minutes per game while shooting 47.4/50.0/90.9% during the 2 losses in Denver.
For the 2 games, Jokic and Murray combined for 125 points, 53 rebounds, and 36 assists while James and Davis combined for 106 points, 45 rebounds, and 26 assists, a Nuggets’ edge of 19 points, 8 rebounds, and 10 assists.

So while the Nuggets only held home court, the Lakers have some serious issues to fix before they can count on winning their two home games as their defense was shredded by the Nuggets while their offense struggled. While the Lakers did have some success with Hachimura guarding Jokic and Vanderbilt defending Murray, the Nuggets have been ignoring Vando in the corner so their defense would be able to play 5-on-4 against the Lakers.

As the Lakers get ready to defend their 7–0 postseason home record at Crypto.Com Arena tomorrow night, here are the four big questions they need to answer if they’re going to be able to hold home court in L.A.

1. How to Stop Nuggets’ Nikola Jokic?

The one good sign for the Lakers from the two close losses in Denver is the defensive scheme involving Rui Hachimura defending Nikola Jokic to allow Anthony Davis to roam the paint and protect the rim definitely works.

No scheme will shut down the two-time MVP but Hachimura being Jokic’s primary defender with Davis roaming to protect the rim was successful in keeping Nikola from having another historic performance like in Game 1. While the Lakers will try to keep Hachimura on Jokic as much as possible, there will be switches they can’t avoid and it’s likely that Davis and James will also spend time defending the Joker and maybe even Mo Bamba.

Ham needs to start Hachimura and play him starter minutes. The Lakers’ best strategy to stop Nikola Jokic is to have Rui Hachimura be his primary defender so Anthony Davis is free to patrol the paint and protect the rim.

2. How to Stop Nuggets’ Jamal Murray?

The Lakers best option to slow down Denver Nuggets’ superstar point guard Jamal Murray, who single-handedly scored 23 points in the fourth quarter to beat the Lakers in Game 2, is likely to have Jarred Vanderbilt guard him.

That means the Lakers have to find a way to start Jarred Vanderbilt so he can mirror Jamal Murray’s minutes. The only way to do that is for Jarred Vanderbilt to replace D’Angelo Russell in the starting lineup for this series. That would mean the Lakers going all-in on defense with a starting lineup of Austin Reaves, Jarred Vanderbilt, LeBron James, Rui Hachimura, and Anthony Davis, which is essentially the Lakers’ version of a ‘Death Lineup.’

The Lakers’ championship hopes and aspirations are based on their ability to play defense. What they learned in Denver is they need to start their best defensive lineup to have their best opportunity to win 2 games in L.A.

3. How to Get LeBron James Going?

Game 2 left no doubt LeBron is not 100%. The fourth quarter was a comedy of errors for James as he fumbled away fastbreak dunks, had no lift when down hill in paint, and settled for hero threes instead of attacking the rim.

There’s little the Lakers can do about James’ foot injury that will likely require surgery this offseason but they can limit James minutes so he’s not totally gassed in the fourth quarter and settling for long hero 3-pointers. Frankly, it’s doubtful that going 0–10 from three in the two games in Denver is going to dissuade LeBron James from letting it fly from deep. With Rui and Reaves spacing the floor, the Lakers need to play LeBron in the post.

James may not have the explosiveness, lift, or 3-point shooting to carry the Lakers by himself but playing him closer to the basket where he can take advantage of his superior strength, power, and experience would be smart.

4. How to Get Anthony Davis Going?

Just when you think Anthony Davis has taken the torch from LeBron James, he has a game like Game 2 in Denver where he posts 18/14/4 but shot a poor 4–15 from the field and ended up with a -10 plus/minus for Game 2.

And just like that, the Los Angeles Lakers find themselves down 0–2 to the Denver Nuggets in the Western Conference Finals with the newly crowned face of the franchise laying an egg in the biggest playoff game of his career. Anthony Davis needs to attack faster, quicker, and more aggressively on offense. Since he’s guarded by Nikola Jokic, the Lakers need him to attack Jokic and get him in foul trouble so he can’t average 42.2 minutes per game.

The Lakers cannot win with Anthony Davis scoring 18 points. They need him to score in the 30’s and get Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets in foul trouble. Davis needs a monster bounce-back 35/20/5 Game 2 to help Lakers win.

After finishing with just 8 points and a team-worst plus/minus of -25 in Game 1 of the West Finals, mercurial Lakers’ point Guard D’Angelo Russell found himself back on the court later that night trying to find his stroke.

A big part of the Lakers late season finish and first two round wins, Russell struggled mightily in Game 1 and the Nuggets’ coaches and players publicly boasted how they shut him down and made him unplayable in this series. It’s easy to understand why the Nuggets would like the Lakers to not play Russell, who along with Reaves has been one of the four core starters who were behind the team’s late season finish and early playoff heroics.

On the other hand, you would think that teams facing the Lakers would stop poking the bear. It’s stupid to give the Lakers bulletin board material or make comments to wake up and motivate D’Angelo Russell for Game 2. Darvin Ham and the Lakers are not going to bench D’Angelo Russell. They need his playmaking and shooting. What they’re going to do is figure out ways to get him going because he’s a critical component to their winning.

The critics and doubters always point to Russell as the Lakers’ weakest defender but they don’t realize it’s his offensive prowess and his elite shooting and playmaking that make D’Angelo valuable, not his defense. D’Angelo Russell averaged 18.6/3.4/5.6 in 32.8 mpg for regular season while shooting 49.4/42.6/72.2% with a +/- of +8.9. In the playoffs, he’s averaging 15.1/3.0/4.8 in 31.1 mpg while shooting 44.0/33.3/77.3% with a +/- of +2.3.

One of the strengths of the Lakers post trade deadline is the army of guards who are outstanding at using pick-and-rolls to get into the paint and put their defenders in jail for easy floaters or lobs to the rim for easy dunks. The combination of LeBron James, Austin Reaves, D’Angelo Russell, and Dennis Schroder being able to get where they want in the paint has now transformed the Lakers half-court offense into a clutch playoff weapon.

The Lakers and D’Angelo Russell desperately need the him to deliver a monster game tonight to show why the team should re-sign him to a new contract and why he’s the right fit as the team’s point guard of the future.

Rookie head coach Darvin Ham has been on a hot streak since the Lakers remade their roster at the trade deadline where every single roster move he’s made has worked out beautifully. He’s now 8 games away from a chip.

As a rookie coach, Darvin Ham has done an impressive job creating winning starting lineups and rotations as the Lakers dominated down the stretch in the regular season and throughout the first two playoff rounds. While making roster decisions, Ham has maintained an open mind both to Rob Pelinka and the Lakers’ front office and his own coaching staff. His rosters moves so far have been perfect mix of evolving and adjusting.

With the underdog Lakers opening the Western Conference Finals against Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets tomorrow night in Denver, L.A. Ham has yet another opportunity to make an impactful change in his starting lineup. While Jarred Vanderbilt started 11 of the Lakers’ 12 playoff games, Darvin Ham turned to Dennis Schroder in Game 6 of the Warriors series because Vanderbilt’s lack of shooting gravity allowed Golden State to play 5-on-4.

With the Lakers needing to go big to match up with the Nuggets’ front court of 6′ 11″ Jokic, 6′ 8″ Gordon, and 6′ 10″ Porter, the time’s now come for Ham to replace Jarred Vanderbilt in the starting lineup with Rui Hachimura.

The Vanderbilt Problem

As impactful as Vanderbilt has been at times during the first two rounds of the playoffs, there have also been matchups where his skills have not been critical and his lack of shooting gravity has derailed the Lakers offense.

While Jarred Vanderbilt could probably do a good job defending Michael Porter, Jr., his lack of threat as a shooter is going to allow the Nuggets to ignore him completely and play 5-on-4 when the Lakers are on offense. Right now, Jarred is averaging 5.3 points, 3.7 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 0.8 steals, and 1.0 blocks in 17.2 mpg while shooting 40.7/25.0/66.7% for the playoffs. His playoffs plus/minus is +0.3 and playoff net rating is -0.7.

Should the Los Angeles Lakers beat the Denver Nuggets and get to the NBA Finals, it’s possible that Vanderbilt might be a better fit against the Boston Celtics with their two big wing scorers than bigger and slower Hachimura. Ham seems to have no problem with not having a permanent fifth starter, opting to deploy a strategy that uses that last starting spot in these playoffs to better matchup with whatever team the Lakers are playing against.

The Lakers saw in Game 6 vs. Warriors how their offense was dramatically more efficient with five players who can stretch the floor and cannot be left unguarded in the corner. The Lakers cannot start Vando against Denver.

The Hachimura Solution

Rui Hachimura has been one of the Lakers most impactful bench players. He’s become a staple in the Lakers’ rotation. He’s fifth on the team in points and rebounds per game and first in field goal and 3-point shot percentage.

But the time’s now come for Darvin to replace Vanderbilt in the starting lineup with Hachimura, who has the defensive size and length to bother Porter, Jr. and offensive shot making skills to make him work hard on D. Starting Hachimura should dramatically improve the Lakers’ offensive efficiency as Rui is probably the team’s most consistent long-range and midrange shooter, hitting 57.0% from the field and 53.3% from three.

Rui does not have Vando’s quick feet and lateral mobility and is not as good a perimeter defender but he’s a little bigger and longer than Jarred and more physical in the paint. And he’s another world entirely offensively.
Rui is averaging 11.2 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 0.6 assists in 21.2 mpg while shooting 57.0/53.3/66.7% with +1.3 plus/minus and +1.8 net rating. The Lakers’ five top scorers are James, Davis, Russell, Reaves, and Hachimura.

Starting Hachimura dramatically upgrades the Lakers’ starting lineup because it now gives superstars James and Davis three other starters averaging double digits and capable of dropping 20 points in any game.

The Joker Defense

The Denver Nuggets will be by far the toughest opponent the Lakers have yet faced in these playoffs. They not only boast two-time MVP Nikola Jokic but also roll out a lineup with five players who can shoot the three ball.

The big question for the Lakers is how will the defend Nikola? The media consensus is the Lakers cannot allow Jokic to both be a big time scorer and playmaker. They have to take one of those away from the Denver Nuggets. Strategically, Ham and the Lakers’ #1 defense is based on Anthony Davis being free to roam and play free safety, something he won’t be able to do if he has to defend Nikola Jokic. So why not have Hachimura defend Joker?

The best solution might be to let Anthony Davis guard Aaron Gordon, the lowest volume and percentage 3-point shooter of the Denver starters. That will allow him to roam and help Hachimura defend the rim against Jokic. This game was always going to be a battle between the Lakers’ #1 playoff defense and the Nuggets’ #1 playoff offense. Having Rui Hachimura guard Nikola Jokic could be the key to the Lakers defense winning the series.

Hachimura has the size and length to be the primary defender on Nikola Jokic to free Anthony Davis to be free to roam and protect the Lakers’ paint and rim and the 3-point and midrange shooting game to boost the offense.