Lakerholics

There’s mounting evidence Darvin Ham’s decision to abandon the four-out sets that carried the team to last year’s conference finals in favor of new five-out sets is one of the major reasons behind the Lakers’ offensive woes.

Seduced by early preseason success, Darvin Ham went all-in on five-out sets despite the fact none of the players on the roster possess the consistent speed and quickness to beat their man off the dribble and get to the rim. The result is opposing teams packing the paint even more against LeBron James and Anthony Davis, making it even harder for them to get to the rim, and exposing the Lakers inability to take or make a high volume of threes.

Statistically, the Lakers currently rank dead last in 3-point percentage. They’re the only team in the entire league shooting under 30% from deep. At 3–5, their 12th in the West with the second worst offense in the NBA.
The Lakers’ disappointing 3–5 start has brought back bad memories of last season’s disastrous 2–10 start. Despite a deeper roster, injuries have been rampant. Was the new roster overrated? Is Darvin Ham the right coach?

The one major difference between how the Lakers played to get to the conference finals last year and how they’re playing right now is they’re playing 5-out sets on offense instead of last year’s 4-out w/dunker sets.

WHY FOUR-OUT SETS ARE BETTER FIT FOR LAKERS

Four-out sets with a player in the dunker spot are a better fit for the Lakers’ current roster than five-out sets because they work best with bigger lineups and generate more rebounds, points in the paint, and made free throws.

Five-out sets and four-out sets create different kinds of spacing. Five-out sets position all five players outside the 3-point line, creating a huge void of space in the paint. Beat your man off the dribble and no rim protection.
Four-out sets, on the other hand, give the four perimeter players more space between help defenders and thus better chance to penetrate but a more crowded paint now due to player in dunker spot and his defender.

Look at the following two charts showing where players should be positioned for both a five-out set and a four-out set with a player in the dunker spot. Four-out sets are a much better fit for this Lakers roster.
Without Dennis Schroder or a younger LeBron James, the Lakers simply do not have the offensive players with the quickness and speed to beat their defenders off the dribble and get to the rim in a five-out offensive set.

The problem for a team like the Lakers is the space between help defenders is less in five-out set because five players are sharing the space above the 3-point line instead of four when they play four-out sets with a dunker.
Five-out sets are particularly bad sets for slower, shiftier guards like Russell and Reaves who like to run low pick-and-rolls and get into the paint to score and make plays for other, something harder to do on the perimeter.

Darvin Ham needs to remember why his mentor Mike Budenholzer back in January 2021 abandoned the Bucks’ five-out sets in favor of new four-out sets with the fifth player positioned on on the baseline in the dunker’s spot.
Ironically, Budenholzer’s protégé Darvin Ham finds himself in a similar situation as his mentor in 2021. Ham needs to dump the five-out sets until his team learns to shoot and instead go back to the four-out sets w/dunker.

Four-out sets with a player in the dunker spot are better fits for the Lakers because they offer opportunities for positional size advantage, improved points in the paint, made free throws, and better offensive rebounding.

FOUR-OUT SETS OPEN DOOR FOR WOOD AND HAYES

Playing four-out sets could open up more minutes and bigger roles for the Lakers’ two backup centers Christian Wood and Jaxson Hayes while helping the team improve rebounding, points in the paint, and made free throws.

So far this season, the Lakers’ small starting lineup of D’Angelo Russell, Austin Reaves, Taurean Prince, LeBron James, and Anthony Davis has lead to their offense having the worst 8-game start in the history of the NBA. With the Lakers already facing a critical game early in the season, Ham should be seriously considering ditching the five-out sets and going back to the four-out sets that helped Lakers make it to the conference finals.

To optimize four-out sets, Ham should start Wood or Hayes at the five and move Davis and James to the four and three. He should also replace Russell with Prince at the two and move Reaves to point guard in the four-out sets.
Since the non-LeBron minutes are still the Lakers biggest problem, Ham should plan to use Wood to replace James in a two-bigs lineup with Davis. Wood outside and Davis in the dunker spot could win non-LeBron minutes.

Hopefully, the dismaying loss to the Rockets has awakened Darvin Ham to the fact that running five-out sets is what’s behind the Lakers’ offensive woes and reverting to last season’s four-out w/dunker sets is the solution.

At its simplest, basketball is about shot making. The primary reason the Los Angeles Lakers are struggling right now is they just cannot make shots. The good news is that can be immediately fixed by simply making shots.

Right now, the Lakers are the only team in the entire league shooting under 30% from deep. Opposing teams know that and are actively game planning their offenses on L.A.’s inability to shoot the three or defend or rebound. Poor 3-point shooting totally destroys the Lakers’ 5-out offense and allows opposing teams pack the paint and force their poor shooters to fire blanks, igniting inevitable long rebounds and opponent transition fast breaks.

That’s led to the Lakers 3–5 start to the season, which right now has them 12th in the west and outside the playoffs, a far cry from the team that made it to the Western Conference Finals after a horrendous start last season.
The Lakers‘ 106.6 Offrtg is 28th and their 113.8 Defrtg 19th out of 30 teams, resulting in a -7.2 Netrtg, which is 27th or 4th worst in the league and a disappointing start at both ends of the court but especially offensively.

While they can hope for injured players to return, major midseason trade, or lineup and rotation changes, the one thing the Lakers can do right now to immediately fix most of what’s wrong with team is simply make shots.

WHO NEEDS TO ‘MAKE’ MORE 3-POINT SHOTS?

The three Laker shooters who need to dramatically improve their 3-point shooting percentages are starting point guard D’Angelo Russell, starting shooting guard Austin Reaves, and starting power forward LeBron James.

Russell is shooting 32.0% on 6.3 attempts per game vs. 41.4% on 6.5 attempts last season, Reaves 27.8% on 4.5 attempts per game vs. 39.8% on 3.4 attempts, and James 31.0% on 5.3 attempts vs. 32.15 on 6.9 attempts. Combined, Russell, Reaves, and James are taking 16.1 3-point attempts per game, over half the Lakers’ 30.4 attempted threes per game. So far, they’ve made 39 out of 128 threes for 30.5% vs. 253 of 704 or 36.0% last season.

Of greater concern is the Lakers are making just 9.0 out 30.4 threes per game this season for 29.6% vs. 10.8 out of 31.2 threes for 34.6%. Rather than improving over last year, Lakers are scoring 5.4 points less per game.
Since the Lakers are making 9.0 threes and allowing 13.3 threes per game, they have a negative 3-point differential of 4.3 threes per game or 12.9 points per game vs. 2.4 threes per game or 7.2 points per game last year.

Unless Reaves and Russell suddenly start hitting their shots, the Lakers may have to make a change, possibly moving Austin Reaves to point guard and starting Taurean Prince, who’s been the team’s 4th best 3-point shooter.

WHO NEEDS TO ‘TAKE’ MORE 3-POINT SHOTS?

The top three 3-point percentage shooters on the Los Angeles Lakers — center Anthony Davis, backup center Christian Wood, and backup small forward Rui Hachimura — need opportunities to take more 3-point shots.

This season, Anthony Davis is shooting 42.9% from deep on 1.0 attempts per game while Christian Wood and Rui Hachimura are each shooting 41.7% on 3.0 attempts per game. All three need to attempt more threes. Right now, their 7.0 combined attempts represent less than a fourth of the Lakers total 3-point attempts per game. The offseason hope had been that the Lakers would be able to increase their 3-point volume and percentage.

If the Lakers opt to start Reaves and Prince in the backcourt, that would open up a starting small forward spot for Rui Hachimura or starting center spot for Christian Wood with Davis and James becoming the forwards.
That would enable the Lakers to improve the 3-point shooting gravity of their starting lineup with either a Reaves, Prince, Hachimura, James, and Davis lineup or a Reaves, Prince, James, Davis, and Wood starting lineup.

The los Angeles Lakers will not be able to improve via a trade until December 15 when recently signed players can be traded. In the meantime, what’s wrong with the Lakers can be simply fixed by just making shots.

After seven quarters of searching, the Lakers finally found a lineup to build upon as they went jumbo sized with Christian Wood joining LeBron James and Anthony Davis to stun the Suns with a big fourth quarter comeback.

Trailing by 12 after three quarters with a grim 0–2 start looming, Darvin Ham smartly put the Lakers’ new LeBron James load management scheme on hold and committed to playing a defensive oriented jumbo sized lineup.
Ham’s new closing lineup with a LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Chris Wood front court and D’Angelo Russell and Gabe Vincent or Austin Reaves backcourt won the fourth quarter 28–11 for a wild 100–95 comeback win.

That lineup of D’Angelo Russell, Gabe Vincent, LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Christian Wood played 10 minutes last night with a solid 114.3 offensive rating, impossible 23.8 defensive rating, and elite 77.8 net rating.
The same jumbo sized, defensive oriented lineup with Reaves instead of Russell played 5 minutes last night and posted a dominant 133.3 offensive rating, strong 66.7 defensive rating, and impressive 66.7 net rating.

Anthony Davis wants to play the four and the Lakers want to play two bigs. The Lakers’ new closing lineup just pushed the odds of those developments happening from pure preseason fantasy to regular season eventuality.

Why Lakers Should Start New Two Bigs Lineup?

It may take Darvin Ham time to get there but there are compelling reasons why starting a version of the Lakers’ new closing lineup would optimize the paint point and free throw differentials that encompass the team’s identity.

First and foremost, the Lakers won last night’s game due to the 29-point differential in their favor from points-in-the-paint and made-free-throws, which has been the heart of their identity as a team under Darvin Ham. Heading into camp, the Lakers reportedly wanted to play two bigs during the regular season like they did to win the 23020 bubble championship. Until the fourth quarter last night, the Lakers played traditional lineups.

The success the Lakers had in the fourth quarter with the new closing lineup cannot be ignored or marginalized. While Vincent increased the defensive intensity, the big lineup change buzz was about Christian Wood.
Look for Ham to give the new closing lineup a deeper look over the next few games. While the front court appears set, Reddish and Vanderbilt could also force their way into the conversation about who will be the guards.

Ultimately, Christian Wood will join the Lakers starting lineup alongside LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Austin Reaves, and either D’Angelo Russell or Gabe Vincent. That lineup’s a blueprint for an NBA championship.

How Do Lakers Handle LeBron Defending Wing

The major con against the Lakers playing two bigs with Anthony Davis and Christian Wood is that it could force soon-to-be 39-years old LeBron James to have to defend and chase younger wing scorers around multiple screens.

Strategically, while the Lakers obviously want to avoid wearing LeBron out defending threes, optimizing their identity as a physical defensive oriented team that lives in the paint and on the free throw line is their top priority. The Lakers can easily solve the problem of LeBron chasing wing scorers around screens by strategically switching everything on defense, which would also work better with the drop coverage Lakers’ bigs like to play.

The Lakers’ defensive identity is not defined by point-of-attack speed and quickness but by dominant size and length that shrinks the court and forces teams into live-ball turnovers that the Lakers turn into fast breaks.
Playing Christian Wood at center instead of Taurean Prince at small forward gives the Lakers positional size advantage at all three front court positions. That size advantage is integral to the Lakers identity as a team.

The Lakers need to switch everything on defense to keep LeBron from having to chase wing scorers around screens and prevent teams from using screens to get into the paint for easy floaters over our drop coverage.

Opening night losses are a poor measuring stick for projecting how a team will play all year long but nothing throws shade on the bright sunshine of a new season like losing to your nemesis the exact same way as last season.

So while the 119–107 loss to the NBA Champion Denver Nuggets Tuesday night was just one game, it exposed lingering worries and concerns Rob Pelinka’s offseason success and the Summer of Austin Reaves had hidden. Specifically, none of the moves the Lakers made this offseason addressed how the Lakers were going to overcome the end-of-game advantages the Denver Nuggets superstars have over the Los Angeles Lakers superstars.

Call it a sobering dose of reality but the opening night loss to the Nuggets simply highlights the Lakers lack of go-to star who can close out games and a lockdown perimeter defender who can shut down opposing star scorers. While the Lakers have a deep and talented roster, they’re trying to have their cake and eat it too by winning another championship before LeBron James retires while simultaneously rebuilding the team for the future.

Here are three way-too-early big picture takes after losing the first game to the Nuggets why it’s likely the Lakers will need to make blockbuster moves at the trade deadline to legitimately compete for their 18th championship.

1. Anthony Davis May Not Be Alpha Superstar

To say Anthony Davis’ second half performance in the Lakers loss to the Nuggets was disappointing is a major understatement after the preseason hype and build-up how AD was going to finally take the torch from LeBron.

Davis’ scoreless second half after scoring 17 points in the first half was a shocking failure both by the player and the Lakers’ coaching staff for not understanding what was needed and making the necessary adjustments. Nobody questions Anthony Davis has the physical ability and talent to take the torch from LeBron James and be the alpha superstar the Lakers need but the harsh reality may be AD lacks the requisite alpha mental makeup.

We’ll find out a lot more tonight about whether Anthony Davis can be the alpha superstar the Lakers need. Right now, it looks like both Devin Booker and Bradley Beal of the Suns will miss tonight’s game against the Lakers. This should be a good opportunity for the Lakers to wash away the bad taste from losing to the Nuggets on opening night by dominating the short-handed Phoenix Suns and evening their 2023–24 season record at 1–1.

Davis will be matched up tonight against Jusuf Nurkic, which should be a far easier challenge than facing the MVP Nikola Jokic. Davis and Ham have said the right things but the Lakers need to unleash Anthony Davis tonight.

2. Lakers Need Go-To Star To Close Out Games

The big difference between the Los Angeles Lakers’ superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis and the Denver Nuggets’ superstars Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray is the later are both scorers who can close out games.

That was the formula the Nuggets used to pull off an amazing four-game sweep of the Lakers in last season’s conference finals, where just 24 points separated the two teams over the four games, and in last night’s opener. Part of the problem is 38-year old James no longer has the elite burst and athleticism of his youth or shooting stroke of a game closer and Davis is simply not a good enough playmaker to make teams pay for doubling him.

To win a championship, the Lakers need a go-to offensive star whom they can count on to make high percentage shots to close games and an elite perimeter defender to slow or shut down the opposing team’s best scorers. The Lakers could target a third superstar like Zach LaVine or a pair of proven veterans like Buddy Hield and Alex Caruso who would fill the team’s dual needs for a go-to offensive closer and shut down perimeter defender

It’s only one game with eighty-one more to come but the Lakers will likely be in the market for a lethal dead-eye shooter to close games and an elite point-of-attack defender to slow down the opposing teams’ top scorers.

3. Lakers Commit To Load Managing LeBron

With the Lakers rallying to within 4 points with 8:48 left in the 4th quarter, Darvin Ham pulled LeBron James from the lineup and rested him until 6:04 left in the game. During that 2:44, the Nuggets lead ballooned to 12 points.

The purpose of the substitution was to limit LeBron James’ minutes to under 30 per game as part of the Lakers new ‘load management’ policy for soon -to-be 39-year old superstar, who ended up playing 29.0 minutes. James was a little miffed at the move as he had the team rallying and pulling him immediately changed the dynamic of the game. Ham probably should not have pulled LeBron at that point so expect adjustments.

The commitment to load manage James, however, seems to be set in stone. LeBron’s in maybe the best health he’s been since the 2020 championship run and is talking about continuing to play with both of his young sons. We’re likely to see judgement errors as Ham and LeBron work out exactly how the Lakers’ new load management policy should work for but limiting James’ minutes per game to under 30 for regular season is certainly smart.

The objective is to have a healthy, rested LeBron James ready-to-go on the first day of the playoffs. If that means limiting James’ minutes per game to under 30, then so be it. Lakers are committed to saving LeBron for playoffs.

Heading into training camp, the Lakers are going to have to figure out what they’re going to do to adjust to no longer having a speedy, pesky, point-of-attack defender like Dennis Schroder to slow down opposing point guards.

One option head coach Darvin Ham should consider is having the Lakers ‘switch everything’ on defense, which would make it simpler and easier for the team’s backcourt defenders to stay in front of whom they’re guarding. For a team like the Lakers who lack elite backcourt defenders with lateral speed and quickness to stay in front of today’s lightning quick point guards, ‘switching everything’ could be the key to playing championship defense.

‘Switching everything’ is not only a better fit for the Lakers backcourt personnel, it’s also a better fit for the drop coverage the team’s bigs play. The Lakers have been very vulnerable to penetrating guards’ floaters.
Switching allows the Lakers to avoid defenders lock-and-trailing opposing point guards over screens only to get put into jail and be unable to stop those guards from making easy floaters over our bigs’ drop coverage.

‘Switching everything’ has also evolved from just being the option teams without good point-of-attack defenders were forced to play to advanced multi-level switching defenses that mimic the best matchup zone defenses. While switching makes it easier for defenders to stay in front of their men, making a modern advanced switching defense work demands disciplined players on a string and a defensive captain with a high IQ to direct it all.

Let’s look at the pros and cons of ‘switching everything’, how ‘switching everything’ is a better fit for the drop coverage the Lakers bigs play, and why the Lakers should emulate the Warriors’ ‘switch everything’ defense.

Pros and Cons of ‘Switching Everything’ on Defense

‘Switching everything’ has pros and cons like every strategy. At its simplest, it’s an option for weak point-of-attack defensive teams. At its most complex, it’s an advanced modern defense that elevates switching to new levels.

At its best, ‘switching everything’ can be like an advanced simulation of a match-up zone where all five defenders react in synchrony like puppets choreographed by an omniscient defensive guru pulling the right strings.
At worst, it makes it easy for opposing teams to isolate their best scorer on the other team’s weakest defender, even though iso basketball is usually inefficient and can take good teams out of what they’re best at doing.

That’s the thing about ‘switching everything.’ It lures teams into trying to do something that’s inherently inefficient and often not in their wheelhouse. Isolation basketball has not proven to be winning basketball in the NBA. But ‘switching everything’ is more than just an option for teams lacking point-of-attack defense. Teams like Golden State use scram and triple switches to turn simple switching into an advanced switching defense.

Smart switching defenses don’t just switch on ball screens. They try to switch off the ball at the same time they switch on ball to anticipate and counter the matchup or advantage the offense’s screen is trying to create.
‘Switching everything’ also does not literally mean ‘switch everything.’ There may be opponents, games, or situations where the better strategy might be to have Vanderbilt or Davis shut down an opposing scorer.

The pros of ‘switching everything’ on defense outweigh the cons, especially for a team like the Lakers that does not have elite point-of-attack defenders but does have the high IQ leaders on defense needed to make it work.

‘Switching Everything’ Works Better with Drop Coverage

‘Switching everything’ works better with the drop coverage the Laker bigs play as it prevents opposing point guards from using screens to put trailing defenders in jail to get high percentage floaters against our retreating bigs.

Unless teams have a Jrue Holiday or Marcus Smart, it’s almost impossible to prevent the great ball-handling point guards in today’s league from beating their defenders 1-on-1 and getting into the paint to create havoc and score. While teams can try to direct the ball-handler by hedging or steal the ball by trapping, the simplest and smartest tactic for defending ball picks is to ‘switch everything’ to always keep a defender in front of the ball-handler.

The drop coverage the Lakers’ bigs play is vulnerable to opposing point guards using screens to get by their defender and into the paint where they keep the defender on their hip and make floaters over retreating centers. Without smaller, quicker point-of-attack defenders like Dennis Schroder, the Lakers need to rethink their strategy for dealing with perimeter picks and start ‘switching everything’ rather than trying to fight through screens.

‘Switching everything’ not only makes the jobs of the Lakers’ perimeter defenders easier but also simplifies the jobs of the team’s bigs, whose main duty in drop coverage is not to allow an opposing big to get behind him.
By making it harder for opposing point guards to get into the paint, ‘switch everything’ reduces the times Lakers’ bigs have to deal with penetrating guards getting into the paint and attacking drop coverage with floaters.

‘Switching everything’ on defense is a better fit for the drop coverage the Lakers’ bigs play because it prevents opposing point guards from using screens to get into the paint and use floaters to beat the drop coverage.

Lakers Should Play Advanced ‘Switch Everything’ Defense

The Lakers with LeBron James and Anthony Davis, like the Warriors with Draymond Green, are one of the few NBA teams whose stars have the defensive IQ and chops to make an advanced switching defense work.

While the Lakers have traditionally preferred not to switch, the time has come for them to upgrade their defense and embrace a modern matchup driven advanced ‘switch everything’ defense like used by the Warriors.
Modern advanced switching defenses like the Golden State Warriors run are a mix of art and science that only works when there’s an elite floor general like Draymond Green or LeBron James to direct the defense.

One of the advantages the Lakers have over other legitimate contenders is they not only have one but two defensive superstars in LeBron James and Anthony Davis capable of playing Draymond Green’s defensive guru role. Since Darvin Ham is going to stagger James’ and Davis’ minutes so that one of his two superstars is on the court for all 48 minutes of every game, that means the Lakers will always have an elite defensive QB on the court.

We’ve already seen Darvin Ham and his coaching staff modernize the Lakers’ half-court offense dramatically with five-out sets that take better advantage of the team’s higher volume and percentage 3-point shooting. Look for Ham to do the same with the Lakers’ defense by adopting ‘switch everything’ as the team’s base defense with advanced scram and double and triple switches like Golden State uses to become the new D normal.

With LeBron James and Anthony Davis, two of the superstars with the greatest defensive BBIQ in the history of the game, the Lakers are uniquely positioned to deploy a modern sophisticated ‘switch everything’ defense.