Aloha,
Now the Lakers seem to pushing their trade window back to mid January. Unless someone approaches them with a deal too good to be true, that’s this is the smart play. First, with the standing bunch together almost everyone is in the playoff hunt, so there may not even be a trade out there for awhile. But there are other important reasons to hold off.
First there hasn’t been any trades that has been actually discussed that would make the Lakers championship contenders. That is not just the Laker F.O’s opinion but pretty universal across the league. There have been wild proposals from writers and bloggers but I’m talking about verified discussions.
The additional time will also give the team the opportunity to see what they actually need to do. We have a few very promising young players and it’s worth it to wait and see how they develop. Lonnie has looked like a legitimate 3rd scorer on a contender. It’s a small sample size but so far he is checking a lot of boxes. He has even shot over 45% from 3 this months, that has helped with one of our most glaring weaknesses. It is worth it to wait and see if this continues. It would be a huge mistake to make a trade that eats up so much cap space that we lose him next summer.
We also see Austin growing up before our eyes. The only thing I would like to see Austin do more is shoot more 3’s. He has a nice stroke and is shooting over 40% from 3.
It is encouraging that coach Ham has unleashed AD and he has been playing at a MVP level. And it was nice to see LeBron have a great game after a slow start. Still looking at the competition we still have a long way to go.
Our biggest need is a forward with size that can shoot. I think that should be the number one priority. While the focus has been on Russ, his salary makes it really hard to find trade partners that doesn’t want to dump more salary on us. I think PaTBev and Nunn along with a protected first could possibly land the kind of forward we need later in the season.
I really do not have a lot of confidence that a trade could give us a shot. However if we develop this young guys and make a smart trade, we could be in a stronger position next year.
The goal has to be to get as high in the standings as possible to get the most favorable play-in slot. After that you hope the match up game works in your favor in the playoffs. In most 7 game series I’ll take the Lakers in 6 or 7 with the big “IF” being AD and LeBron’s health. Won’t matter if we trade for the Harlem Globetrotters if those guys are out.
The longer it takes for some teams to fall out of contention the longer this trade saga drags out. Nobody is tanking yet except Houston, Orlando, San Antonio, Detroit and maybe Charlotte now with another limb of Gordon Hayward’s breaking down. Everyone else has a solid shot at the play-in.
If you can make the play-in you can make the playoffs. Teams aren’t going to tank like they did before lottery smoothing and the play-in. Not for anyone. Guys who excel against amateurs don’t always excel in the NBA and, for all his success in the Euro League, it ain’t the NBA (sorry Giannis and Luka).
With all of that being as it is, coupled with the Lakers reliance on old/fragile superstars and a lack of draft assets or trade-worthy contracts it should not be surprising to anyone that this is where we are. Rob has been digging himself into this hole for two straight summers. He’s not digging himself out quickly or easily.
They started last January when they didn’t trade a pick for John Wall. They continued by not pulling the trigger on the Russ for Buddy/Myles + 2 FRP’s this summer. They will keep at it up until late January/February (I think everyone knows I’m focused on the last day or so of free agency by now) when they can possibly move Russ w/o a pick to the right team. Same goes for PB and Nunn, if we can move any of those guys (Russ, PB, Nunn) with no, or at least just 1 FRPs attached that’s a big win for the Laker FO.
I know there seem to be doubts about what the Lakers can accomplish with three FRPs (2023 come draft day) and cap space but they’re not thinking outside the box enough. There is actually quite a bit that can be accomplished:
-Sign and trade Russ for a player under contract. This would not hard cap the Lakers, only the team bringing Russ in. Nor would this have to be for the max. That’s just the most he could be paid. For those unclear here, in a nutshell, are the CBA bullet points on the NBA sign and trade rules under the current CBA
Under terms of the current CBA, sign-and-trades come with many significant restrictions. Transactions under this rule require all of the following to be true:
-The player must re-sign with his former team.
-Additionally, the player must have been on the team’s roster at the end of the immediately previous season. This provision, introduced with the 2011 CBA and maintained in the 2017 CBA, closed a loophole that allowed a team to sign-and-trade any player to whom it held “Bird rights”, regardless of whether the player was active in the league.[a] An example of such a transaction banned under the current CBA is the Dallas Mavericks’ inclusion of Keith Van Horn in the trade for Jason Kidd in order to match salary.
-While restricted free agents can be signed and traded, this is not allowed if that player has signed an offer sheet with another team.
-The team receiving the player cannot have a payroll that exceeds the so-called “apron”—a designated level above the NBA luxury tax threshold—after the trade. A team with a payroll above the apron can only receive a player in a sign-and-trade if the transaction drops that team’s payroll below the apron. Once the transaction is complete, the team receiving the player is hard capped at the apron for the entire season.
-The receiving team cannot have used the so-called “taxpayer mid-level exception” in that season. The taxpayer mid-level exception is a limited financial buffer that teams with total payroll above the luxury tax threshold must use to sign players for up to 3 years.
-The regular season has not yet started.
-The player must receive a contract of either 3 or 4 years (not including any option years), where only the first year must be fully guaranteed. (5-year sign-and-trade contracts were abolished in the 2017 CBA to disincentivize the transaction.) In turn, this means that he cannot be signed using a salary cap exception that does not allow the team to offer a 3-year contract.
That last bullet point is honestly the biggest hindrance to a sign and trade next summer for Russ. Lakers will not, so long as the player they receive is under contract, be hard-capped and free to spend over the cap by means which they are able.
I can think of a few teams that, depending on our draft position, would S&T for Russ in the 15-20 mil range and trade us an able-bodied, better-fit player for just the 2023 draft pick. Signing Russ for more money? Add another pick, or two depending on the player(s).
At any rate, despite the internet NBA scuttlebutt this was highly unlikely to be resolved by February and again that still comes with a rather large IF in my book. Lotta ways it can still shake out. Wasting a season of LeBron is partly his own fault so no biggie. He’s going to get paid, he’ll pass Kareem, he will be just fine.
We can also let all of our expiring deals simply expire, select a player with the 2023 draft pick (wherever it lies) and use cap space to retain LW4, Reaves (who will be an URFA…thanks Rob…) or any other Laker deemed worthy. That is unlikely to take up all of our cap space and so we can be players in the free agent market, as well.
The one saving grace of this season is the West being so wide open at this point. That’s been the main reason Pelinka was able to kick the goal posts from end of November to middle of December and now possibly to January 15,
Hell, why doesn’t he just say February 9th trade deadline? Even that can be moved to next summer.
Some GM’s make opportunities. Others sit and wait for them to magically appear. That’s Rob Pelinka, wishing he could find another Kobe Bryant.
Why? Simple: Klutch.