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Michael H wrote a new post
Aloha
Well crazy time is on us. I get a real kick out of the first hour of free agency. There are always free agents signed in the first five minutes, but you are not supposed to talk with players prior to 12:01am. 😂 The NBA should just end the charade. EVERYBODY is talking😂
Now having a big 3 comes with a lot of restrictions but I think we have a chance to build a really good team. But it starts with our own players. Continuity is important and we have some very good role players.
I think it’s important to keep Alex. Not just for his elite defense. With Russ on board, Frank will probably stagger Russ and LeBron. Alex and LeBron have excellent chemistry when Alex plays the point as a secondary ball handler. His market value is estimated at around 10 mil. I would go even go over a little. Unless someone comes in with a over the moon offer., I think Alex stays.
I’m confident that THT will stay. He’s younger then many of the 1st round picks and he’s developing quickly. He can play 1 through 3 and is almost an elite finisher at the rim. Yes he make young player mistakes but with the amount of Vets we are going to have we can live with them. Plus he would be hard to sign and trade. He will get offer sheets and if he signs one we can’t trade him if we match. Plus regardless of what we sign him for we can only take back 5.5 mil in contracts. That won’t get you any one better. In December that changes but for now I think he sticks.
I really hope we can retain Wes. Defensively he is nearly as good as KCP. He had an off year shooting the 3 but it was a weird year and I think he will rebound. I could even see him starting.
I also want to retain Morris. He had a real uneven year but he was really good during the stretch that he was starting. I think he would be better in a more consistent role.
Now for additions, if we keep our guards I think our top priority should be small forward, especially if LeBron is playing the 4 a lot. This is the position I would use the mini MLE on. My favorites are:
Reggie Bullock
Otto Porter Jr
Nick Batum.Reggie may get a better offer with the Knicks. Otto Porter Jr seems to be willing to play for 4 to 6 mil. The Clippers can’t offer Nick more then us, so would he walk across the hall? We will see.
Now for Vet min guys.
Rudy Gay
Melo
Corey Joseph
Trevor Ariza
Dewight Howard
Paddy Mills
Torrey CraigI think Melo is a given. It gives another scorer off the bench. Of all the guys it’s almost guaranteed he is a Laker.
I almost put Rudy with the MLE candidates and wouldn’t be to upset if he was our MLE player.
Corey is a Klutch client and I I think he would be great for depth.
Would love to have Trevor back but he hasn’t played much lately for personal reasons. Don’t know what’s going on with him.
I like bring back Howard in a limited role. With the addition of Russ, AD will be playing more center. I also hope Gasol is back because he is the perfect 2nd unit center playing with Russ. Howard would be a nice banger to bring in and beat up some of the bigger centers for 10 minutes or so.
I like Mills and we need shooting. I would love it if he took the vet min. But he has a couple of rings so I kind of think he will look for a little more money and the 3 is a bigger priority for us.
I love Torreys defense and if we can steal him on a vet min, that would be huge. I just don’t think he offers enough offense as my other MLE picks.
I also wouldn’t be surprised if one of 2 way players has a strong camp we sign them to the varsity for a cheap end of the bench player.
There is also chatter about Iggy and Dragic as possibilities. But as now of now the Heat have yet to decline the team options. They have to do it today, so will see. Expect Iggy on Lakers if the Heat cut him loose. Rob was his agent.
So if we can can keep our own guys and a few of the above I think we will be a very tough team to beat. The good thing about living in Hawaii is midnight eastern time is only 6pm here. So after the rest of you go to bed I can follow the signings. I’ll keep you posted😊
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Damn, that’s some good stuff you posted, Michael. Don’t know if I will be able to sleep tonight, but I can’t wait to see how this team looks like this season. You made great points about the players we have to retain including Wesley Mathews, THT, Caruso and McKinnie. I like all of those players. I will be looking forward to your updates.
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Aloha, Michael,
Were having a live Lakers Fast Break Podcast tomorrow at 2:30 pm PT in case you were interesting in joining the conversation. Let me know if you are and I will have Gerald send you a link. Should be a fun show that will last a couple of hours and be live on Facebook. Love to have you join us.
While the Big 3 does make it tough to fill out the rest of the roster, I prefer to focus on the benefits, especially since the Westbrook deal has been committed to and that part of it is not going to change. We now have a Big 3 and the challenge is to turn the roster into a super team. What we need to do that is players who are volume 3-point shooters. Guys who shoot 2 to 4 threes per game are not going to solve the problem. The Lakers need shooter who take 6 to 10 threes per game. That’s the only way they can create the spacing to make the Westbrook trade a success. Otherwise, teams are going to pack the paint mercilessly.
I would love to keep Alex and THT but not at the cost of not being able to add a volume 3-point shooter like Buddy. Much as both contributes, neither is a starter and neither even averages a single made three per game. My greatest worry after calculating how much it would cost the Lakers in taxes to trade for Buddy in addition to Russ is that the Lakers will make the same judgement mistake you made and believe keeping THT and Caruso is more important than adding Buddy. If that happens, you will be correct that the Westbrook trade was a mistake. There is no way in the win now world of the Lakers that the Lakers will win if they keep THT and Caruso instead of adding Buddy.
When it comes to the vet minimum players, we’re in agreement. Wes and Keef are essential to re-sign. The other guys on your list also make great sense for the Lakers. I also love the idea of Bullock, Porter Jr., or Batum for the mini MLE.
I’m even willing to take Dwight back as a backup center although I’m concerned that most of the pundits somehow still seem to be ignoring the news about AD playing the five and are presuming that Gasol or maybe even Dwight would start at center.
Let me be clear. Only an idiot of a coach would start a center like McGee or Howard who cannot shoot alongside a point guard like Westbrook who cannot shoot. What does it take for these idiots to understand you cannot have only one shooter on the floor with LeBron, AD, and Russ. You must have two shooters on the floor and they should be the shooting guard and small forward. Russ only works if you start AD at the five. Starting guys who average less than one made three per game is not going create any spacing. Russ at the one, LeBron at the four, and AD at the five requires shooters at the two and three. Period.
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Michael H wrote a new post
Aloha
Here’s an interesting question that just crossed my mind. What if Dennis can’t find the deal and fit he is looking for, would you bring him back to run the 2nd unit at a reasonable price? That’s the role he has starred in. Personally I might consider it, it wouldn’t hamper any other moves we could make. It would add a boat load of tax but it’s Jeanies money. And it would give us a another tradable contract down the line.
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It’s an interesting idea, Michael, but there are four reasons why it won’t happen imo:
(1) I think the Lakers will likely stagger LeBron and Russ so one of them is running the offense at all times.
(2) Dennis does not want to come off the bench,
(3) We need his slot for a volume 3-point shooter.
(4) Even $16M for him would end up costing $50 in luxury taxes. Lakers trade him or let him walk.
Dennis’ agent is not going to burn bridges with the Lakers as he may need us to get paid. Even if Dennis decides to sign with a team with cap space, the Lakers will have an opportunity to offer then a second round pick to do a S&T to get a Trade Exception. I doubt Dennis is going to get an offer over $19.2M.
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Frankly, there’s a good chance Dennis is not going to be able to find a team with cap space willing to pay him what he wants. There’s a glut of point guards on the market and a half dozen at least who are better players than Dennis. When the music stops, there’s a good chance Dennis is going to need the Lakers’ help to get paid. That’s more likely than not.
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So when the Lakers let Ramon Sessions walk, they had his bird rights too…and it didn’t matter. Because no one cared about his bird rights….Let me again clarify, the team sending out an S&T hands over all the advantages to the other team. Extra year of control, trade kicker, etc…Why would the Lakers want to help another team and increase their tax bill? It makes no sense.
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I am of the same opinion with you, Michael. I have made several comments on Dennis already and it will make more sense to bring him as a sixth man, but there has to be a reasonable resolve contract wise. I can only see an upside to this move, but if he doesn’t want to come off the bench, then we move on.
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Michael H wrote a new post
Aloha,
Just read an another article that brought up a possible conspiracy theory. It mentioned how the Bucks and Kings got busted when a deal arranged prior to free agency was exposed and they lost some draft picks. Now for it to work Dennis’ agent would have had to convince Dennis that no one was going to pay him Lowery money. The Wizards do need a starting quality point guard now. If they agreed to sign for around 18.5 mil then the Lakers trade him to the Wizards who send Kuz and Trez to the Kings who sends us Buddy. I believe this is the only play, I can’t see it Working with a 4th team. Still I think it’s a long shot but you never know. Of course it would look suspicious as hell but unless info is leaked it would probably go through. The deal would also fall apart if a team stepped up with some bigger money for Dennis.
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Thanks, Michael. I actually believe this is going to be a multiple team deal just like the AD acquisition were. Pelinka is copying the same framework but updating it with what happened to the Bucks, which is why the whole deal can’t be revealed until after August 2nd when players can be approached about sign-and-trades. At the deadline, the Bucks announced a trade that could not have happened without they violating the tampering rules.
The perfect tell to their being a deal is the Wizards saying they don’t plan to keep Kuzma or Harrell, basically telling their fans that these guys are going to be moving on for other players so don’t get attached into thinking these guys are going to Wizards or criticizing the trade when it is not done. Anyway, we really need volume 3-point shooters and Buddy is hopefully ours.
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Michael H wrote a new post
Aloha,
Just saw a little post that Otto Porter Jr maybe willing to play for the mini mid level. If the guy can stay healthy it would be a huge get for the Lakers.
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Michael H wrote a new post
Aloha,
I posted awhile back of all the names available we had the best shot at Westbrook. In my mind it’s pretty simple, if we can find shooting and perimeter defense, it’s a great deal. If we can’t I not sure. So what needs to happen?
First it’s really important that we return some of our vets. Wes suddenly becomes very important. He is a very good defender and while he had an off season shooting, if he can bounce back to normal, we might see him in the starting lineup.
Next I think Alex is will be back. We have already lost two of our best defender so we can’t lose a third.
I’m pretty confident that THT will be back. He would be very hard to trade. If he receives an offer sheet we can match but we can’t trade him then. I’m sure he will continue to improve. It would be a good year to see a big next step.
I think Morris is another guy we will want back. With Kuz gone There are going to need him back.
It would be great if we can find a trade for Dennis to bring back another quality player. The two teams mentioned most have been the Bulls and the Knicks. The Knicks have cap room so it would be a disaster if he signed with them. The Bulls probably would need to trade to get him.
Now I know we are not supposed to be talking to free agents wink wink nod nod but I wonder if the Lakers have a line on a player that might sign for the mini mid level. The one thing adding about Westbrook it might attract a player willing to take a little less, like perhaps a Nick Batum. Regardless, the next few days will be extremely interesting.
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Michael H wrote a new post
Marc Stein
@TheSteinLine
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21m
The Lakers’ talks with Sacramento on a potential deal headlined by Buddy Hield and Kyle Kuzma are the most serious so far, league sources say, but San Antonio is also believed to have interest in Kuzma in possible sign-and-trade scenarios involving free agent-to-be DeMar DeRozan.1 Comment -
Michael H wrote a new post
Marc Stein
@TheSteinLine
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14m
Hield would be a promising acquisition, given the Lakers’ many roster constraints, but a deal with Sacramento to secure Hield’s shooting could hinge on Montrezl Harrell’s willingness to bypass free agency by picking up his $9.7M player option -
Michael H wrote a new post
Aloha,
I’m beginning to think that the best trade we can do now would be for Buddy. after that we may have bring Dennis back, bring back our most important free agents, and see what we can add with the MLE and Vet minimum guys. we will win a lot of games if healthy anywy. Then in December all the trade restriction are gone and it would make it easier to make trades. I also feel that our trade assests could improve their trade value by then. i believe Dennis will be better. TahT could be alot better. maybe akCap gets off to another good start etc. As it stands I don’t know if we have the trade chips to land 2 star players.
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Plan B was always to re-sign Schroder unless the Lakers were able to get a deal for Lowry or Lonzo and were going to be hard capped. One of the reasons I was so angry about the Lakers not making the Lowry trade is I knew it would leave us with too few trading chips heading into the offseason, when it is easier to make big moves than at the trade deadline.
I still have hopes that the Lakers can pull of great moves this summer, partly because their trading chips are better than what Lakers fans think, especially Kuzma, and there are too many good point guards and not enough cap space to sign them all. I would even consider DeMar DeRozan as meeting the description of a ‘difference-making playmaker.’ We just need more shooting and LeBron and AD to play the 4 and 5 to make it work. But add Buddy and another high volume/percentage 3-point shooter and it would be a great lineup. DeRozan could be our point guard.
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Michael H wrote a new post
Aloha,
I remembered a remark that Rob made a year ago about wanting to acquire talent that matched AD’s time frame. Now while I’m sure they are discussing the aging stars I would be surprised if they weren’t considering younger options as well. There are risks to handing big contacts to 35 year olds with recent injury issues.
The Cav’s Sexton has been discussed here and the more I think about it the more appealing he becomes. He would bring scoring and 3 point shooting and he’s young. We could send Kuz and probably our 1st round pick. I’ve read a couple of articles were the Lakers were listed as the best destination with that trade.
Then you could send Dennis to the Bulls for Markkanem. He has been mentioned in possible trades for a point guard and still has a lot of upside if he can stay healthy. The Bulls would send him to one of two places. The TWolves have literally no Power Forwards and a lot of guards. He can stretch the floor and would be perfect next to Towns. The TWolves would send us Malik Beasley. So we would have a young quality back court for life after LeBron leaves.
The Kings would be just as good, but not for Buddy, but for Harrison Barnes. The Kings are rebuilding and Harrison is wasted there. They might take on a young Power Forward with a lot of upside. He would be the perfect fit next to LBJ and AD on the front line.
Come to think of I think I would rather have Barnes then Malik. He’s still only 29, can hit 3’s and is a very good defender.Then we can resign a few of our own players and maybe find a bargain vet with the mini mid level.
Anyway I wouldn’t be surprised if we chased a big name but I wouldn’t be surprised if we did something like this either.
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Thanks, Michael. I thoroughly enjoyed reading your post and I totally agree with you. I especially like how you juxtapose the players you mentioned to match the reality of our current situation in order to produce a favorable outcome and swing the pendulum in our favor.
Even though I was all for Buddy Hield, I find your take on Harrison Barnes to be very appealing and tantalizing, and to me, it is an avenue worth exploring. The same goes for Malik Beasley.
Honestly, Rob Pelinka might want to consider having a sit down with you, if not the whole Lakerholics bloggers, to discuss the state of affairs of the Lakers.
There are seasoned veterans on this blog whose views and expressions give me a healthy dose of what I need for my day, and help keep me afloat on my daily routines. And I do agree with most of their opinions which makes this blog a great place to be. Great take.
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Solid and realistic post Michael. We often get caught up looking at the Maserati and Lambo’s when what we really need is a sturdy pick up and an economy sedan. Guys like Barnes and Sexton can definitely help the Lakers and there won’t be the same kind of “how can we fit all these alphas on one squad?” I love the idea of adding Barnes because he’s in a very similar timeline as AD and is good enough to man the three. His defense fits in with what we do and he’s improved his playmaking. I’d be quite happy with any of the players mentioned
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Thanks Jamie. I’m in agreement about adding a 3rd alpha. Plus all the big names mentioned are ball dominate players and I just can’t see LeBron playing off the ball all the time. I am also concerned about signing 35+ year olds with injury issues. If the rumors about AD playing the 5 are true a front line of LeBron, AD and Barnes would be the best in basketball. And with Sexton you have a guy that can score and play off or on the ball. You could also keep KCP and the 2 and let him do what he does best, defend. As the 5th option that’s all we really need is his quality defense. Then when THT is ready you have a young back court for years to come. I believe that would be a better team with Sexton and Barnes then one of the aging stars.
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I mean who doesn’t like to walk through the show room? But in the end you look at the price of the Hot Rod and choose something sensible that fits into your budget.
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Well thought out and reasoned post, Michael. There’s definitely a strong argument to be made that the role players we surrounded LeBron and AD with last season were not a great fit. Schroder could score but not shoot and make plays but not without turning the ball over too much. Harrell became more and more unplayable as the season went on. KCP became afraid to shoot and Kuzma afraid to score. And Drummond was a disaster. Etc.
Barnes and Sexton would cleasrly be major upgrades but I’m going to have to disagree with your Maserati and Lamborghini vs sturdy pick up and economy sedan analogy because the Lakers need more than additional role players to compete with the Brooklyn Nets Superstar Big Three next season.
I think Barnes would be an excellent addition, especially if LeBron is going to move to the 4 and AD to the 5 to open up a starting spot at the three. Sexton is intriguing as a scorer but his low salary, horrible assists to turnover ratio (1.57 to 1), and subpar defense make it hard for me to see the Lakers pursuing him. I think there are better options for a point guard who is a better 3-point shooter, playmaker, and defender. If I were going to gamble on a 22-year old, I would keep THT rather than trade for Sexton.
Finally, it’s naive to think the Lakers can build a championship team for Anthony Davis reign at the same time as trying to optimize LeBron James dwindling championship window. Lakers should have only one focus right now and that is to win another championship. Sorry but we need proven championship caliber players to go with LeBron and AD, not 22-year old kids putting up big numbers on one of the worst teams in the league.
That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t prioritize players in their mid to late 20’s instead of 35 and 36-year old veterans who might be on their last leg, assuming everything else is equal. For example, I could see a S&T for Lonzo Ball as having some advantages (and disadvantages) compared to a S&T for Chris Paul. Lonzo is younger, shoots more threes, and is a better defender. CP3 is older but a better playmaker and proven winner. In some ways going younger in this case might make sense as Lonzo is not some 22-year old kid scoring big numbers for a losing team.
Anyway, give me a Maserati or Lamborghini or Porsche over a sturdy pick up and economy sedan any day of the week. That beat up old picking and Hondo is what we have right now. We need a third star to mactch up with the Nets more than we need slightly better role players.
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I’m going to have to disagree with you for several reasons Tom. First we will will never out gun the Nets. The only way to beat them will be with defense and depth. It’s imperative that we keep an advantage with both. Signing Lowery, Paul or Ball are all sign and trades and would make it harder to maintain our depth.
Sure we could bring in a but if over the hill vets in on minimums and hope they have one more year left. but I prefer the depth that my trade provides.Come on Tom, you think Sexton and Barnes are only slightly better role players? Sexton scored 24 points a game last year and his .385 career 3 point shooting is better then any of the big name PG available. I would start Sexton over THT everyday at this point in THT’s career. And Barnes is a NBA champion and is known for his quality defense plus he is a reliable 3 point shooter. Those two fill our greatest need.
LeBron is going to be LeBron. No matter who they sign he will have the ball in his hands a lot. Bringing in a ball dominate PG is really not the answer as far as I’m concerned. Paul and Lowery both are best when they run the show. They would be sharing with LeBron which would diminish their value. Sexton is effective on and off the ball. Where we really save wear and tear on LeBron is on defense. If we start AD at the five Barnes is a great defender and can match up with the Paul George’s and Durants, while LeBron can guard Power Forwards.
Until THT is ready to start we would be starting 4 NBA champions so we could afford having one kid on the floor.
Finally Paul, Lowery and Ball have all had injury issues. Both Paul and Lowery will both want at least 2 maybe 3 years. Paul will want at least 30 mil a year to opt out of a 44 mil deal. And Lowery is probably looking 25 mil. And may get it. Barnes and Sexton costs us around 27 mil. Cleveland has cap room and can absorb the rest of Kuzmas salary. And Barnes last year drops to 18 mil. When you consider the hard cap trading for Barnes and Sexton gives us a deeper better team.
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We’ll have to A2D, Michael. As I said, I’m not opposed to trading for Barnes but not for Colin Sexton.
Sorry but starting a 22-year old point guard who’s never played for a winner and has a dismal assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.57 is not how you optimize LeBron James diminishing championship window.
Not when the Lakers greatest priority is a ‘difference-making playmaker.’
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Finally, what were talking about here is upgrading the Lakers’ starting lineup. You’re replacing Schroder and Drummond with Sexton and Barnes. I’m replaceing Schroder, KCP, and Drummond with Lowry, Bullock, and DeRozan.
Expecting 22-year old Sexton to be able to match what future HOFer Kyle Lowry can do for the Lakers is naive. Same with Harrison Barnes and DeMar DeRozan. Lowry and DeRozan are proven future HOF players. Sexton and Barnes are not. Yet you want to soend more money to create a roster that’s not close to being as good.
It’s not what you spend that counts but how you spend your money. There’s a route to the Lakers having a starting lineup of Lowry, Bullock, DeRozan, James, and Davis with a bench of Mills, Caruso, Matthews, Morris, and Gasol. You can argue that’s a long shot to happen but not that it’s not a championship caliber roster.
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Here is my point, I don’t like bringing in a player that’s best skill is play making, running the offense when you have LeBron. LeBron will do what he does and sharing with LeBron wastes some of that players skill set.
Now if I had to choose between adding Sexton or Derozan, I’ll take Sexton. He offers the same scoring punch and he stretches the floor. Derozen doesn’t do that. And it’s a wash defensively. By the way, don’t you think that Sextons assists would go up playing for a team that can actually make shots? And Harrison Barnes is way better then Bullock. Not even close and Barnes has the size to play both forward positions. I wouldn’t mind KCP as the 5th option because we need to keep a versatile defender in the back court. That’s essential and we lose defense with Derozen. Defense is still our path but my trades add needed shooting as well. Paul and Crowder led a bunch of kids to the finals. We will have a bunch of vets with only two kids. Both Sexton and THT are both talented enough for the team to over come their mistakes. And both will continue to get better. In the end, if we are not near the top in defense we will not win another championship. I just feel your model offers enough defense to do that.
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Good discussion, Micheal. LOL. Like I said, nothing wrong with disagreeing. It’s what makes the conversation’s interesting. Anyway, we’ll have to see what the Lakers do to see who is right or whom the Lakers agree with. Of course, as just bloggers, we lack inside info but I’ve still seen lots of bonehead moves by the so called experts so even that is not proof who is right. Then there’s the matter of post trade performance and how that affects who’s right or wrong. My opinion is opinions are cheap so why not opine? This is after all a blog.
But seriously, if the Lakers could pull it off, you don’t see Lowry, Bullock, DeRozan, James, and Anthony as a championship offense … and on a budget? Claim it can’t happen but don’t ignore that it’s a great lineup.
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Is LeBron the best option at the one? For sure but is that the best option for the team. That’s the better question.
The Lakerrs do NOT want LeBron to continue to play the one. They want him to play four, which is the position he plays defensively. They believe it will extend his career and allow him to rest as needed. If we get a great pg, then it will work. If not, LeBron will play the one.
But behind all of this is the AD to the five, which finally allows the Lakers to play five against four instead of four against five for a change.
Center is a tough poisition to fill today and much of the time it is 4 against 5 if you don’t have a dynamic center. I’d love Lakers to trade for Turner but if not, then I want AD at the five. It’s like being awarded a sixth player to start. It can even allow you to fit in a DeRozan because everybody else can shoot.
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Still don’t get why the Nets (who didn’t even make it to the conference finals…) are the barometer for the league. That smacks of looking specifically at one end of the court and not the other. Incredibly the game of basketball happens on not one but two sides of the hard wood. The Nets are about to lose talent with no mechanism to replace it, their big 3 has barely played and likes to nurse injuries for weeks, will Harden once again play his way from the club to the court throughout the season? Durant is the only “pro” on that team, Nash had no answer for any of the defensive wrinkles the Bucks threw at them.
The Nets are a dog and pony show on the same level as the Clippers. if you’re building a team to play like them you’re building the wrong team, in my opinion. You don’t want to compromise the defense (which is where I do agree with LT, Sexton is not a solid defender and so maybe switch out Patty Mills who might not have the dynamic upside but knows the role game and is solid on both ends) in the name of a couple streak shooter who may or may not make shots in our “offense”.
Have to agree with Michael and many others here, including myself, when they point out that Lowry has all the makings of Nash 2.0. I don’t see a good reason to break the bank, give up solid young talent or hard cap ourselves to acquire Lowry. I think there are younger, better fits for our team than Kyle, whom I like both as a player and a human being.
The other thing I like about Michael’s roster is that there are ton of trade-worthy deals on it. This avoids the same issue that the Nets will have: how do you improve a roster weighted so heavily towards the superstar end of the spectrum. The Bucks had a solid trio surrounded by really solid role-players/character guys like Brook Lopez, P.J. Tucker, “Big” Bobby Portis and Pat Connaughton.
Of course LT wants the Lambo. The thing is, the Lakers might want that, too. The Lakers are in the ‘splash’ market so it’s certainly within the realm of possibility they look to hit a bunch of home runs and cap themselves into a pretty specific team as opposed to building something both for the present and the future, which I totally agree is possible.
Only thing I know is that I don’t know what the Lakers are planning. That and it really doesn’t matter what moves we make if LeBron and AD aren’t at full health come the playoffs.
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Here is the thing about defensive rankings. I don’t know how good of a defender Saxon can be in a good defensive system. The Cav’s were 25th in league in defense so it’s hard to say. Now look at Lonzo who Tom loves. He had a 115.7 defensive rating which is awful but we know that Lonzo is a very good defender on a bad defensive team. I didn’t see Sexton enough for the eye test but pared with 4 great defenders like he would start with, I’m pretty sure his ranking would go up.
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There’s no doubt defensive ratings are heavily influenced by whom you play with. Play with a good defensive team like the Lakers, you’ll have a lower defensive rating and vice versa.
Great defensive ratings are almost impossible on a poor defensive team because unlock scoring, playing good defense is a team thing and you need everybody working in sync to play great defense.
However, I could find no evidence in the media that Sexton is anything but a scorer. Let me know if you saw anything different. And I looked because I was intrigued that the Cavs were trying to trade him. He could get better but betting on 22-year olds to help LeBron and AD win next year is silly.
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The Nets are the barameter because the oddsmakers have made them that and most prognosticators believe they have the best team in the league because of the three superstars.
I do agree their Achilles Heel is their defense. KD, Kyrie, and James may be unstoppable offensively but none of them can match the Lakers James or Davis (or Lowry) when it comes to defending. That’s not even counting that defense in the NBA today is a team effort as much as an individual effort. Lakers would have a shot even with just LeBron and AD because of their defense. My goal is for them to build a team that makes LA the favorite. LeBron, AD, and Lowry > KD, Kyrie, and Harden.
While Kyle did miss 26 games this season, he showed no signs of slowing down. He averaged 17.2 ppg (6th best in 16 years), 5.4 rpg (2nd best in 16 years), and 7.3 apg(4th best in 16 years). He shot 43.6% from the field (3rd best in 16 years), 39.6% from three (3rd best in 16 seasons), and 87.5% from the line (2nd best in 16 years). He also took 7.2 3PA per game (4th most in 16 years) and posted a 2.7 to 1 assists to turnover ratio (4th best in 16 years).
Does those stats look like a player who’s washed up? Steve Nash was also 38 years old when he joined the Lakers. Lowry is only 36 years old. Unlike Schroder, he is a master at the pick-and-roll and can run an offense and score as well as any point guard in the league.
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No I’m not saying that your line up couldn’t win sure it could. I’m just saying I like mine better. It has enough offense and a better defense which is key to another ring. Plus I worry about guys like Lowery in their mid thirties. His body has already been breaking down. Also I think you need to develop some young talent. Sexton and THT will both make some young player mistake but they are both talented and will be a net positive for the team. I don’t know what Harrell will do but assuming he opts out I ran some numbers and even paying THT and Alex 10 mil and adding a one 2nd round buy in player or undrafted player for the end of the bench you could do it with only go over the tax apron by about 6 or 7 mil which isn’t terrible.
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Michael H wrote a new post
Aloha,
This is the time of the year that everyone is blowing smoke. Teams and Agents are all blowing smoke and writers are inhaling it. It is really hard to tell what is true and what’s not. Agent are looking to increase their clients value while teams often slip misinformation to throw off their rivals. I’m sure the Lakers have discussed every player that is linked to them. Those leaks are probably true. But how serious are they about any of them. I’m sure they have discussed other guys as well. And I believe it’s in the Lakers best interest to not let the league know who their true targets are. This has been going on since the last championship. Every star is linked to the Lakers. The rumor about LeBron were true. AD really wasn’t a rumor because he publicly let it be known that the Lakers were one of his choices. Ever other time nothing happens with stars. The draft will be the first trade opportunity if we want to include our pick. After that who knows. I still believe that the odds of us landing a star are small. But never say never I guess.
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It’s definitely the ‘the Days of Smoke,’ Michael.
I’m actually surprised there has not been more stories since we all know everybody is talking behind the scenes already regardless of the rules about tampering.
I still believe the Lakers will go big but will be interested to see what they actually do. Will they go the hard cap or luxury tax route? They will add a third star if at all possible.
Next week should be great fun with the draft and free agency hitting. Have my toes, fingers, and eyes crossed.
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Michael H wrote a new post
Aloha,
I been thinking about what would I do if I were to hard cap the Lakers. But if I were going to do that I would offer Rose the full non tax payer MLE. We would get a quality PG and have 10 mil more to play with. The following is my perfect moves after that. Note a few maybe a stretch but not out of the realm of possibility or pure fantasy.
Draft day deal Kuz and our 1st for Malik Beasley.
Salaries nearly wash.If the reports are true and AD agrees to start at the 5, I would go after Nick Batum with the vet min and a chance to start.
Resign Alex and THT for 8 mil each.
Sign Melo, Morris, Wes, Buy into the 2nd round or sign a undrafted rookie. Hopefully a center.
If Batum declined I would offer same deal to Otto Porter jr , Snell or Craig. If they all turn us down I would go with Mo Harkless for depth.
PG Rose
SG Beasley
Sf Batum
PF LBJ
C ADReserves
Alex PG SG
THT PG, SG, SF
KCP SG, SF
Morris PF, SF
Melo PF
Wes SG
Gasol C
Undrafted or 2nd rounder.-
Can’t wait for 2 weeks from now when we’ll finally have some actual facts to evaluate & scrutinize instead of all these wild-azz-guesses & speculation. We’ll know if Stein and his ‘Difference-making playmaker’ and AD at center stuff was actually real or pure bull-sheeeeit….lol. There’s more than 1 way to skin a cat and there are several scenarios that I think can get us deep into the playoffs (ANYBODY we put around AD & LBJ will get us through the regular season). I won’t try to predict which scenario is “best” nor how co-GMs Rich Paul & Pelinka will navigate the rest of summer….my Magic 8-Ball is still at the damn dry cleaners!!
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Totally, the Bucks are going to be a problem for many years. Hard to see Phoenix not keeping it all together for the most part (don’t see another team making the $44 mil offer to CP3 while preserving the talent level around him). West is only gonna get tougher with the Warriors getting healthier. Lakers need to stick the landing this off season or that window is gonna shrink even more.
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I’m into this scenario, not sure how available Malik will be. I think we need to have both defenders and pony generators off the bench. I’m very into resigning as many of our guys as possible, I’d love to figure out a way to S&T Dennis w/o hard capping.
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Aloha Jamie, Dennis is an interesting case. Two teams seemed to have interest, the Knicks and Bulls. Both seemed to have turned their eyes to different players. The Knicks don’t need the the sign and trade, they have a lot of cap space. the Bulls would need to. i looked at their roster. There really isn’t anyone that they would give up that rings my bell. And I wouldn’t hard cap us for any of the Bulls free agents in a sign and trade. I think Dennis blew it. There are a lot of point guards available. I think he will sign for less then the Lakers offered him.
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I’ve been playing around with the luxury tax situation, specifically if we were to trade for Westbrook and the tax numbers are scary. LeBron, AD, and Russ alone exceed the luxury tax threshold and the apron, which means every players you add after those three will have a luxury tax attached. By the time you fill out the roster with minimum salaries, the tax for adding a fourth star to start could cost $20-30 million in taxes.
Basically, there are solid reasons why being hardcapped could be a smarter move. You get access to better prospects and get the full MLE. Those are two huge advantages. While you get hardcapped, you also don’t end up with being so far over the cap that you can’t make moves without incurring unreasonable taxes.
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Michael H wrote a new post
Aloha
The insanity that is the off season is here. The trade machines are fired up and I’m sure we have a chance to land Dame or Kd 🙂
Well I’m a totally boring human and before I even fire up the trade machine I look and see if our trade assets would be a plus for the other team. If not, I don’t bother. I don’t believe the Lakers will hard cap themselves with a sign and trade, so about the only star I can see a path to would be Westbrook if the Wizards decided to tear it down and we were the only team that would take his salary. Unfortunately the Knicks have tons of cap space with draft picks and young players to offer.
It is easy to forget that we were a good team before injuries shattered our season. So running back a lot of these guys won’t be the worst outcome. And with full training camp and practice schedule the team would be better.
So here is my totally vanilla and slightly boring look at what the Lakers could do.
Everyone agrees that we need shooting. The most popular name out there is Buddy. And I like Buddy. But he is number two on my list. My top pick would be the Twolves Malik Beasley. He is only 24, he shot the 3 better then Buddy the last 2 years on over 8 attempts a game and oh ya, he can defend. He is under control for 13 mil over the next several years. I would try a straight up trade with Kuz and only throw in our pick if needed. Why would the Twolves do it? Well Edwards looked like a future superstar and they have a glut of other guards but are thin at forward, especially power forward. Kuz would be a perfect fit.
Of course we only have 2 forwards under contract so we would need to replace Kuz. Free agency is a funny time and you never know who may not get paid what they are worth. So here are a few names that possibly slide into the mini mid level that we will have.
Nick Batum, Otto Porter Jr, Reggie Bullock, Torrey Craig, Toney Snell.
I would like any of the above. Nick is my favorite and he proved that when healthy he still has gas left in the tank. The Clippers can’t offer him more so would he cross the hall to play with LeBron? If not Porter Jr is a very good player, that injuries have cost him. If healthy he also would be a great fit. Would any of these sign for a chance for a ring? We will see.
As far as are own I think it’s important to resign Alex and THT. Especially THT. I have a real good feeling about this guy. I seriously believe he could be are 3rd star by the time he’s 22. And for those that want to trade him, keep this in mind. LeBron takes credit for discovering him and bringing him to Rich Paul and to the Lakers. He’s like LeBrons little brother and his pet project. It will take a very good player for LeBron to sign off on a trade. And trust me LeBron would have to sign off. Perhaps LeBron nixed the Lowery trade.
As for point guard, I believe the Lakers will resign Dennis. And it won’t be for what he wants. You never know who might be available in trades but on the surface I don’t see a better option. And to be fare to Dennis it was hard coming in without a real opportunity to gel he will be better next year.
Center is the least of my concerns because in the playoffs we have AD to play center. But I think he does need to more time at center in the regular season. I would be happy with Marc starting in limited minutes. Vet min candidates we could look at for depth could be Gorgui Deng, Whiteside and Robin Lopez.
I think Morris, Wes and Mclemore all have a chance of coming back. I really like Wes. He a career low in 3 point shooting. I think he will rebound like Danny Green did in Philly.
So how to fill out the rest of the roster. Here are a few ring chasing vet min candidates.
Carmelo, Rudy Gay, Wayne Ellington, JJ Redick, Maurice Harkless, and Avery Bradley.
I would be happy with a couple of those guys. As far the draft if don’t make a trade I like Chris Duarte of Oregon. He’s a deadly 3 point shooter and top notch defender. He is 24, if he was 20 he would be a top 10 pick. He’s nba ready. Cameron Thomas of LSU is another possibility. He’s a walking bucket.
The draft will tell us a lot. Draft day is the only time we can trade our pick by selecting for someone. After that who knows what will happen. All I know is the crazy trade rumors seldom materialize, but hey you know. August is going to be very interesting.
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First of all, Michael, I miss your posts. So, it’s great to see this one. You have pretty much said everything I have been trying to throw out there. Everything you said in this article is cash. The one thing that stood out to me was your take on THT. I have been saying this for a whole while that the Lakers need to keep him and not trade him. There is greatness in this kid and they should do whatever it takes to keep him in the fold.
This article was well written and well thought out Thanks for posting. -
Howdy Michael, thanks for popping round and I personally am pretty much onboard with your vanilla take on the state of the Lakers prospects at a major overhaul this summer. Honestly, even signing Schroder for “what he wants” isn’t the terrible outcome we make it out to be. If he’s balling hard we can trade him, if he’s not we can look to do so later and relegate him to back up. He’ll be getting paid, he’s an elite back up and it’s not my money.
I like your take on THT and the Kuzma to Minny deal although I think it would take more to make that happen, maybe taking back a bad contract of theirs, as well. Could they be looking to move on from Rubio? Possibly and he should be another potential Schroder trade destination mid-season. the sign and trades come with needing player permission. Midseason trades? Notsomuch. If we’re not loving what we’re getting from Dennis and Russ gets hurt again or is just inconsistent like he has been so far I wouldn’t be surprised to see Minny looking for an offensive/defensive upgrade and they’d be getting younger without sacrificing a ton of experience in a trade like that.
But those scenarios are far on down the line. I also love you ring-chasing vet list, we have a lot of players on each others’ lists, actually. So, indeed yes, August is going to be verrrrry interesting around here.
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Aloha Jamie
I thought about Rubio to but that it could be hard to do. Perhaps mid season like you said. If we can trade for Malik i would love it. Unlike Buddy, he is actually a decent defender. For a bad team the Twolves dont have much cap space and they are painfully thin at forward, so you never know. Perhaps the would roll the dice with Kuz. hes upgraded his game and perhaps he will become more aggressive offensively if hes out Lebron and AD’s shadow.
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Aloha and welcome back, Michael.
Good post although way too vanilla for me, although I prefer to hope we see that the team we had in the bubble is not good enough to win vs. the competition we’re goiing to see this coming season. We desperately need volume 3-point shooting and a third superstar to be able to go all the way this year.
I do like Malik Beasley and would be happy with Hield or him to replace KCP. I just think Buddy is more attainable since the Kings covet Kuzma and a trade of him and McKinnie would do the job. One thing for sure is we can’t have a shooting guard who can’t aveage 10 ppg the last two years and rarely makes multiple threes per game. Kenny could not start for most playoff teams. Need a major upgrade there and Malik and Buddy are the best two prospect.
I also agree we’re going to be short of wings once we trade Kuzma. That will probably be where we spend our MLE and maybe whom we draft if we keep our pick. Will definitely have to be a 3&D player though as we need volume 3-point shooting. Can’t run it back with the same shooters as last year.
That’s why I don’t see us keeping Schroder. We’ll find some team to sign-and-trade for him at $24M per year. Maybe Harrell too. No hardcap for signing-and-trading your own free agent. I still like the idea of signing-and-trading KCP and Harrell for Terry Rozier to replace Schroder at point guard. Saves money and Terry is a high volume, high percentage 3-point shooter.
I do agree we’re not likely to make a move to be hardcapped and I also agree we re-sign THT and Caruso. Need their continuity. I also think Morris and some of the other minimum salary verterans will return. I like your mininum candidates and would add Boogie to the list.
Center is where I disagree vociferously. AD should play the five as I outlined in the article I posted today. I would look for Nerlens Noel and DeMarcus Cousins to fill out the center rotation as well as bully ball fours like PJ Tucker.
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Aloha Tom, I don’t disagree with your take on center at all, in my mind AD is the best center in the NBA. But im also realistic, the Lakers will continue to play him at the 4. My hope is that they will play him half the time at center half the time and even more in the playoffs. I even like your centers better then the ones i mentioned. But again im being realistic. Noel played well for the Knicks and they have a boat load of cap space. I don’t believe he would come to the Lakers for the vet min. And Boogie showed up in the playoffs and will be probably getting mid level money. I think our need for a big wing that can defend and shoot the 3 is more important then spending the mid level on a center. as for Dennis, he’s a good guard and I think we would be a better team signing him and using our trade chips to pursue other needs. as for a 3rd super star, i don’t think we have the trade chips for that except possibly Westbrook but like I mentioned if he does come on the trade market, I think the knicks will snap him up.
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One more Tom. I was thinking about Rozier. The Hornets haven’t really shown interest in trading, although I have read he could be target for those pesky Knicks if they do. While Ball played the point on offense, Rozier defended the the point which worked out well for them. Since Ball at 6’ 6” is more suited to defend wings.
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Michael H wrote a new post
Aloha
Kuz’s game last night was another example of my biggest frustration with this season. There is a lot chatter about who the Lakers could land to be that third star. . It’s frustrating for me because we have him on the roster. Kuz has developed his game to an almost all star level in most areas. He hustled and plays the right way. He is a great defender, has become our best rebounder and he can play the 2, 3 and 4. He’s shooting .370 from 3 on 5 attempts a game. The only thing lacking for him is shots. He only gets 10 a game and at least 2 or 3 of those are usually hustle shots off offensive rebounds and tips.
When Kuz gets shots, we see games like last night. But for reasons unknown to me there are a lot of games where he will get only 6 or 7 and that includes put backs and tips. Even with AD out there have too many games where he has only gotten a hand full of shots. This is a major failure for our coaching staff. They have to find more looks for Kuz.
He doesn’t really have to start. Lamar came of the bench but got 30+ minutes a game and Frank needs to do the same with Kuz. With AD and LeBron I think it would be hard for any 3rd star to get 20 points a night, so they would have to be excel at other things like Bosh did with the Heat when he only averaged 17 with LeBron. Kuz does other things and has a complete game. Kuz should always be the 2nd option whenever AD or LeBron sits. For us to win it it all, our defense will need to continue to dominate plus Kuz and Dennis need to score 15 to 17 a game. It’s up to the coaching staff to upgrade our offensive scheme because honestly it’s become too predictable. We could use an upgrade or two through the buyout market but I believe we have the core pieces to win again. And for me winning another ring is as much on the coaching staff as it is the players.
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Kuz is also up to 5.0 3PA per game now. He’s not whom we want to trade if we’re looking to add volume 3-point shooters. Working on an article regarding 10 Laker trades and trying to keep Kuzma out of all of them. He’s part of the evolving solution rather than the problem. Should definitely be starting imo.
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Michael H wrote a new post
Aloha,
There has been a lot of talk lately about who the Lakers could go for in a trade or who might be available on the buy out market. Usually the chatter centers around 3 point shooting and rim protection. For me I’m far less concerned with who we can get, then I am about the team playing the right way.Earlier in the season when the 3’s were falling, the ball was popping, really moving and guys were getting good looks. Then it just stopped. I don’t know if we hit a wall due to the short off season but the energy on offense seemed to disappear. There is a lot of LeBaron holding the ball and us getting into a set, late in the clock. If you listen to Stu on Spectrum you know he complains about this every game. All game long. I’m hoping that rest will help bring the energy back on offense. If it doesn’t it won’t matter who we acquire.
As for rim protection, I would like a little depth at the 5 with a guy that can block shots, but I’m not that concerned. When the playoffs get here AD will be seeing most of his minutes at the five anyway, just like last year. I believe AD at the 5 with Kuz starting is our best chance at
Repeating. Speaking of Kuz, he is a proven scorer, yet most of his points comes from hustle. When AD went down I thought they would run more for Kuz but that hasn’t been the case for the most part. I think our offense would be more successful and less predictable if they ran more actions for Kuz. He is one of the few guys on the team that can get his own shot and we kind of waste him. I think of Kuz when we talk of landing a 3rd star. Where is that 3rd stars shots going to come from? I’m not sure.
I think we will be fine come playoff time. Last years team didn’t gel and look like a champion until right before the shutdown and I’m hoping that this years model will be a repeat of last years squad when they morphed into a powerhouse after the break.-
Aloha, Michael,
Playing the right way is obviously critical but as we’ve seen when key players are out and shots aren’t falling, that can go away in a hurry. Sean made a great point in the last podcast that the in a way, everything fell in place perfectly for the Lakers in the bubble. The Clippers and Bucks stumbled. Frank made all the right moves. LeBron and AD dominated. KCP, Keef, and Rondo played brilliantly. The result was three 5-game series and a 6-game Finals. 16-5 record and the Lakers 17th NBA championship.
So even though I’m always the glass half full proponent looking for the silver linings in every cloud, I think there is no question the Lakers are going to have a much tougher challenge to repeat. No home court, an AD who has not looked like the DPOY this season, a team that suddenly can’t shoot straight, a better Clippers team, and a Nets team most prognosticators rank as favorites to win it all with three superstars vs. our two. Even though LeBron and AD are the best two of the five superstars who will be playing in that Finals, we’re going to be playing 2 against 3 or 1 against 2 for the entire series.
Hence, I still believe the Lakers need to make major moves to improve their rim protection, upgrade their 3-point shooting volume and percentage, and add a third star who can even the odds when we play the Nets in the Finals. I also am convinced Rob Pelinka and the Lakers understand this and will be looking to go all-in to fill the above three holes in our roster. Lakers have always thought big and, assuming the right opportunities arise, I think they’ll make major moves to improve the roster before March 24th. They’re not going to waste a chance to win another championship by standing pat. They clearly understand that this is not last season and the bar has been raised and the Lakers need do respond.
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“If you listen to Stu on Spectrum you know he complains about this every game. All game long.” – Yes he does and I agree with Stu on this 100%. Basketball is a game of flow and when we get into our offense with 10 or fewer seconds on the clock we are not in a flow of any kind. I don’t put the onus on James, he’s doing what he does and the man is dog tired. This needs to be where the coaches tell the team the PG is someone named Dennis Schroeder: get him the ball on inbounds plays and let him do PG things. On the break there’s no better human to start, continue or finish a fast break than LeBron James. Anyone of James, Schroeder or Gasol are adept at downcourt passes to streaking Lakers. This is not rocket science and should have well drilled into the team by now. It has not been. We stifle our own plays searching out LeBron and we squander untold seconds dribbling out the clock when some in-paint exploration by any number of players would be more fitting to the moment. This is one of my biggest issues with Frank as a coach. Simplistic offense that overly relies on LeBron James and, to a lesser degree, Anthony Davis.
More could be asked of several players, Kuzma among them. Guys who have a clearly defined role on the team aren’t making shots, especially and specifically from three. This is killing our efficiency and creating turnovers and fast break points (also known as open threes or points in the paint). Until we solve the issue of efficient offense our defense, no matter how well it’s ranked, will have extra pressure applied to it. Pressure that is by and large avoidable.
I would still like a more mobile/athletic 5. We saw how we could at least stymie Jokic with Dwight (who also was DPOY one time and multiple ALL NBA Defense, not an easy skill set to replicate as excellent defense is more than jumping high or running fast). While AD will certainly finish games at the 5 and may even play the bulk of the minutes there we need insurance against injury, COVID and even plain old foul trouble. Currently, even with Damien Jones on the roster, we don’t really have that player in the fold.
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Michael H wrote a new post
Aloha, think about this…
AD 27
KCP 27
Dennis 27
Trez 27
Alex 26
Kuz 25
THT 20That is talented core of young pro’s just entering their prime. Actually Kuz and THT aren’t even entering their prime yet. That is a group that can be great for years to come. If these guys become the players I think they can be I don’t think we will need to add a 3rd star. Just add a couple of good vets every couple of years. I believe that a deep talented team is always better then a top heavy 3 star team, that’s not very deep. Especially when your two stars are arguably the two best players in the world.
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