The Lakers’ overtime win over the Spurs without James last night showed why trading for a third superstar in Russell Westbrook is going to pay off big for Los Angeles as it‘s the key to winning the non-LeBron minutes.
The NBA experts and pundits disapproved of the Lakers’ decision to trade for Russell Westbrook because he wasn’t the elite 3-point shooter the team needed to create spacing for superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis. What they ignored was the impact Russell Westbrook as a third superstar could have on the Lakers’ single biggest weakness, which was winning the minutes and games when LeBron James was not on the court.
So let’s take a closer look at what may be the single most important thing about the Lakers’ bold and controversial decision to trade for Russell Westbrook and go all-in on creating their own Superstar Big Three.
WHY WINNING NON-LEBRON MINUTES IS IMPORTANT
Since they signed James three years ago, the Lakers have yet to finish a season with a positive net rating for the time LeBron is not on the court. Even in the championship season, they lost the non-LeBron minutes.
LeBron was +2.4 points on the floor and -5.9 points off the floor for a -8.3 differential his first Lakers season and +9.0 point on the floor and -0.9 points off the floor for a 9.9 differential during the team’s championship season. The trend of the non-LeBron minutes being the Lakers’ Achilles heel continued last season as LeBron was +8.6 points on the floor and -2.0 points off the floor for a -10.6 differential, his worst as a Laker.
Last night, the Lakers got their first tangible return on their gamble that adding a third superstar like Russell Westbrook would be the key to eliminating their Achilles heel and winning the critical non-LeBron minutes. Winning without LeBron is a big deal. The Lakers have always had a strong positive net rating when LeBron plays. What chance do opponents have if the Lakers now also dominate the non-LeBron minutes?
That’s why winning without LeBron last night was important because the Lakers traded for Westbrook in the hope he would give them a legitimate third superstar, who could with AD win the non-LeBron minutes.
HOW THIRD SUPERSTAR INSURES AGAINST INJURIES
It’s not a coincidence Rob Pelinka went all-in to acquire a third superstar after the Lakers’ lost LeBron James and Anthony Davis to injuries and suffered an embarrassing first round exit in the playoffs to the Suns.
Pelinka had seen how having three superstars had enabled the Brooklyn Nets to survive an injury plague after losing Kevin Durant for 37 games, James Harden for 36 games, and Kyrie Irving for 18 games last season. Brooklyn proved that having a third superstar could be an invaluable insurance policy against injuries to one of their three superstars. That’s why Pelinka jumped at the chance to trade for Russell Westbrook.
Having that third superstar who could cover when one of their three superstars were out with injury enabled the Nets to post a 48–24 record, second best in the East and fourth best in the entire league last season. Unfortunately, the Nets were unable to build the chemistry needed in the playoffs during their disjoined regular season and ultimately lost in the conference semi-finals to the eventual champion Milwaukee Bucks.
How the Nets survived the injuries to their superstars clearly caught Rob Pelinka’s attention and was a major factor in the Lakers’ decision to trade for Russell Westbrook and build a superstar big three to match the Nets.
WHY WESTBROOK OVER HIELD WAS RIGHT DECISION
Russell Westbrook’s stats for last night’s game were 33 points, 10 rebounds, 8 assists, and 3 steals with only 3 turnovers while shooting 15 of 27 from the field, including 10 of 14 or 71.4% in the restricted zone.
While Buddy Hield is an elite 3-point shooter, he could not have done what Russell Westbrook did last night to help the Lakers beat the Spurs in overtime. It’s the difference between an elite role player and a superstar. While Russ doesn’t solve the Lakers’ need for high volume and quality 3-point shooting, he brings the Lakers exactly what they need to win a championship: a legitimate third superstar for the non-LeBron minutes.
The next major step for the Lakers is to figure out how to replicate the play we got from Russ and AD last night to win the 12 minutes in every single game the Lakers are losing when LeBron James is on the bench resting. Eventually, Russell Westbrook figuring out how to win when LeBron James is not available or is on the bench will ease the concerns and prove to the doubters that Russ is a great fit as the Lakers’ third superstar.
Once the Lakers learn how to apply what they’re learning from playing games without LeBron to the minutes each game when James rests, they will be on their way to becoming an unstoppable offensive juggernaut.
Excellent post, Tom. Couldn’t have said it any better. Inch by inch, step by step, the Lakers are figuring out things and that’s going to be a lot of fun.
Thanks, Buba. Winning the non-LeBron minutes is going to be big deal.
Just heard the news that LeBron is going to sit out tonight’s game too. I think that’s a great decision by Frank. Lakers need to have another game to hone their non-LeBron offense and defense because if they can win those minutes, they will become close to unstoppable. They’ve won LeBron’s minutes the last three years by double-digit points. If they can also win when LeBron sits, the Lakers will win their 18th NBA championship.
What Russ delivered last night was the key to unlocking the non-LeBron minutes the Lakers have lost all three seasons since they signed LeBron James. This development is why Pelinka switched direction and traded for Russ instead of Buddy. As good a volume 3-point shooter as Hield is, there’s no way he could have done what Russ did last night to ‘will’ the Lakers to an overtime victory. This is why we traded for Russ. The power of a third superstar as injury insurance.
What a frustrating game…never should lose to a team like that.
Especially in that fashion. Ridiculous.
In principle and theory this is a highly agreeable post and an idea I am 100% behind. Last night, I believe, revealed a flaw in the idea that Russ and AD alone can win games. The bench seems to have an extremely high degree of variation in it’s ability to deliver quality impact. Our defense is borderline non-existent and that’s often with AD at the center. We, once again, have a bevvy of guys who in theory shoot the three well but don’t do other things who are also not hitting the three ball.
I really don’t know what to hope for other than someone like Nunn or THT or Ariza can be a stabilizer off the bench. It won’t be Rondo or Monk or Melo. Not on defense, anyhow. AD’s 3 point shot has left the building, currently shooting 14.7%, Russell Westbrook is shooting 17.4% from three and a game-altering 47.4% from the free throw line. While the law of averages will factor into improvement the larger issue is that space won’t be created to the expected degree when AD and Russ play. Why wouldn’t you pack the paint, dare them to shoot threes and foul them hard on drives? The result is one you could live with.
Frank has his work cut out for him.
Thanks for reading and commenting, Jamie. I don’t think Russ and AD are good enough to win a championship without LeBron butI do think they can not only win but dominate those 6-minute stretches in each half of every game when LeBron rests. Two superstars vs. the other team’s bench lineup? Give me a break. That’s not only the Lakers’ Achilles Heel but also the greatest opportunity they have to become a dramatically better team. This is a huge issue for this team. It’s at the heart of the Westbrook Experiment.
I have no doubt that not being able to win the non-LeBron minutes was a big part of the decision to go all-in for a third superstar. While it’s a huge plus to be able to win games without LeBron, like we did against the Spurs, that’s not where being able to win the non-LeBron minutes will have its biggest payoff. It’s going to be the 6 minute stints in each half of every game where LeBron rests and we get killed. That’s where Russ and AD need to win minutes. If we do that, it will be the difference maker towards winning a championship.
When will we see stability? You’re right that’s a tough question and one possible answer is we won’t because of roster construction and/or injury. However, I’m still high on this roster because I think Russ will be the key to winning when LeBron rests and to thriving over a long often trying regular season. I suspect the answer as to when we’ll be stable may be late in the season and after a major trade of THT, Nunn, and Jordan for a legit stretch four/five who can guard 3/4/5.
I think Jeanie is too good an owner, Pelinka too good a GM, Vogel too good a coach, and LeBron and AD too good a superstar for them not to figure this out. There’s crazy stuff happening all over the league right now. Stuff that we won’t see midway during the season. Yes, stuff you see when it’s only the fifth game. Also known as where the GHE and GHF crews inevitably collide. Then, as the season progresses, everybody either becomes GHE or GHF depending on how our Lakers do on the hardwood.