NBA Commissioner Adam Silver has to be smiling at the serendipity of the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors meeting Wednesday night in the Play-In Tournament Game between the West’s 7th and 8th place teams.
No better appetizer than LeBron James vs. Steph Curry to get NBA fans excited and hungry for the playoffs after a second straight Covid ravaged season with limited live fans in the stands and declining television ratings. The winner earns the #7 seed and plays the #2 seed Suns in a first round playoff series while the loser has to play the winner of the 9th vs. 10th place game to earn the 8th seed and play the #1 Jazz in a first round series.
LeBron James and Steph Curry already have a storied history, playing each other 38 times, including 16 regular season games and 22 playoff games, with Curry winning 9 of 16 regular season and 15 of 22 playoff games. The threat of Steph and Warriors upsetting LeBron and the defending champion Lakers and sending them into an elimination game vs. the winner of the Grizzlies vs. the Spurs has purple and gold haters salivating.
Watching Steph go off late with three dagger threes to clinch Sunday’s win over the Grizzlies has NBA fans and pundits eagerly awaiting Wednesday night’s matchup between LeBron’s Lakers and Steph’s Warriors for 7th seed.
While the Lakers opened up as 7-point favorites, the line has now dropped to 4.5 points as gamblers expect Golden State to go all-in with their small ball ‘Death Lineup’ with Draymond at center that won three championships.
The Lakers and Warriors met three times this season with Steph Curry catching fire late in the first game to pull off a 2-point Golden State upset but LA dominating the last two games with 26 and 31-point blowouts. With rookie center James Wiseman injured, the Warriors have gone small with Draymond Green at center and won 17 of the 25 games Steph Curry has played since their last game against the Lakers back on March 15.
Make no mistake, Steph Curry has taken his game to new heights since the three games against the Lakers, averaging 36.1 points per game compared to 29.3 points before March 15 to win the second NBA scoring title of his career. The Warriors will likely start Draymond Green at center against the Lakers like they did in their big win over the Grizzlies to clinch 8th place in the West, which puts pressure on Frank Vogel to go small with AD at the five.
With Drummond finally getting a chance and showing he can play with James and Davis, Vogel faces his first major matchup decision of this year’s playoffs: go big with Drummond at center or small with Davis at the five.
Unlike as 7-game series, the Play-In game doesn’t leave any room for error. There’s no question the Lakers as a team are best with Anthony Davis at the five but they have been hesitant to go that route during the regular season.
Last year, AD played the five 25% of the time during the regular season and 40% of the time in the playoffs. This season, he has only played center less than 10% of the time as they have preferred to play him at power forward. The big question for Wednesday night’s game is whether Vogel will stay big and start Andre Drummond at center or counter Steve Kerr’s move to start Draymond Green at the five by starting Anthony Davis at the five.
Realistically, the Lakers with LeBron James and Anthony Davis should be able to dominate the boards and paint and beat the Warriors if they go big with Andre Drummond at center or small with Anthony Davis at center. Considering Drummond’s recent success with LeBron and AD, Vogel’s likely to stick with his starting lineup of Drummond at the five and Davis at the four and look to dominate the Warriors with their size and athleticism.
The danger is Drummond not being able to make the smart adjustments on offense and defense playing against a savant veteran like Draymond Green. If Drummond struggles, look for Vogel to make a quick change to go small.
Frank Vogel’s personnel moves in last year’s playoffs were close to perfect as he dramatically increased the minutes superstar Anthony Davis played center from 25% during the regular season to over 40% during the playoffs.
Wednesday night’s Play-In game against the Warriors should give us a critical first hint of how Vogel is going to manage his center minutes in these playoffs. Will he rely on Drummond at the five or revert back to Davis? Along with the heath of LeBron James and Anthony Davis, how Drummond plays and what Vogel decides to do with his center minutes will likely determine whether Lakers can realistically repeat as champions.
There’s no question the Los Angeles Lakers face an unprecedented gauntlet to win their 18th NBA championship. Unlike any other champion in NBA history, the Lakers will have to win 17 games rather than 16 to do it.
This game should give us a good idea of how Vogel is going to manage the center minutes in these playoffs. While I would prefer him to start AD at the five, that’s not going to happen. We’re going to go with Drummond at the five to start and try to outbig the Dubs, which we’re certainly capable of doing.
The big issue is how does Drummond handle the responsibilities on the defensive end against the Warriors small ball lineup. The Dubs will be looking to get Andre switched onto Curry, which could be disastrous as Steph could go bat crazy with threes. Unless Andre surprises everybody, Vogel is going to likely have to go to AD at the five early to counter Draymond at the five.
The playoffs this year are going to be more of a coach’s chess match than any other year as the Lakers and Vogel try to dominate by going big and small. Will teams play Drummond off the court like they did McGee and Howard? Will Frank have as quick a hook with Dre as he did with JaVale and Dwight? Going to be interesting to see what happens and how it impacts the four playoff series that will follow.
Lakers should crush Warriors and win wire-to-wire by 15.
I’m not even certain the Dubs will go with Dray to start. We’ll see. One way or another I expect Frank to have a quicker trigger than normal.
Dubs would be foolish to start anybody buy Dray at the five. Their only chance is go small and count on Dray’s savvy play to make Drummond a huge liability on defense to allow Dubs shooters to go crazy from three.