The Los Angeles Lakers appeared to have outlasted first the Philadelphia 76ers and then the Miami Heat to pull off a mega trade for Kyle Lowry and win today’s NBA Trade Deadline Sweepstakes only to sadly fold their cards.
In the end, the Lakers refused to include 20-year old Talen Horton-Tucker in their offer of Dennis Schroder and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope for Kyle Lowry and the Raptors’ Masai Ujuri called Rob Pelinka’s bluff and nixed the trade. The Raptors kept the 35-year old Lowry and the Lakers came up empty, even failing to make tweaks to what is a seriously flawed roster desperately in need of a playmaking guard, rim protecting center, and 3-point shooting.
As a longtime resident of THT Island, I’m glad Talen is still wearing purple and gold but also disappointed Rob did not pull the trigger on the trade for Kyle Lowry, whom I think could have made the Lakers dramatically better. But as I’ve said many times, I trust Rob Pelinka to make the right decisions for the Lakers and understand, as fans, we never have the benefit of the inside information, insights, or expertise of our front office professionals.
While I’m sure will learn more about what happened the next few days, here are my thoughts about the decision not to trade for Lowry and the questions it raises for the rest of the Lakers’ season and next summer:
The first question is why did the Lakers refuse to include 20-year old Talen Horton-Tucker in the trade since his contribution over the next two years was unlikely to be as great as that of a 35-year old All-Star like Kyle Lowry?
To start with, the Lakers may not have wanted to commit to giving Lowry the 2-year $50 million extension he wanted if traded. The reason they were willing to trade Schroder was the 4-year $100 million extension he wanted. Further, part of the reason they were willing to trade Caldwell-Pope was his 3-year $40 million extension. The Lakers clearly wanted to cut salary with Caruso and Horton-Tucker entering free agency and luxury taxes looming.
Then there’s the obvious reluctance to part with 20-year old Talen Horton-Tucker, whom the Lakers believe has legitimate star potential. Pelinka has done a great job balancing the demands to win now with the Lakers’ future. Horton-Tucker is a Klutch Sports client and a player the Lakers drafted on the specific recommendation of LeBron James. It’s entirely possible James and Davis were participants in a decision not to include THT in any trades.
In the end, the Lakers obviously felt confident that they could still win the championship with their current roster and a healthy LeBron James and Anthony Davis plus whomever they could sign from the buyout market.
The next question is what does not making a trade mean for the Lakers, both for the 2 to 3 weeks remaining before AD returns and the 3 to 5 weeks left before LeBron returns, as well as down the stretch and in the playoffs?
The good news is Marc Gasol will return for tonight’s game against the 76ers, although on a 15-minute limit. With Embiid still injured and trade deadline in the rear view mirror, the Lakers will need to be ready to play. The front office just made a huge bet on them to be able to do the job. Dennis Schroder, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Talen Horton-Tucker need to show everybody the confidence shown in them was not misplaced.
The Lakers are 5.5 point underdogs tonight. They have 28 games left in the regular season, probably 10 more games before Davis returns, another 10 more before James returns, and then a final 8 before the playoffs begin. They’re currently in 4th place in the West, just two losses ahead of the 6th place Trail Blazers. To finish in the top 6 in the West, the 28–16 Lakers will have to finish close to 42–30, which means finishing the season 14–14.
Assuming they sign Drummond and another rotation player in the buyout market and James and Davis return when expected, the Lakers should be able to play .500 ball the rest of the way and avoid the play-in tourney.
Assuming LeBron James and Anthony Davis are rested and healthy for the playoffs, the Lakers should have a good chance of repeating even though the competition will be much tougher this year than last year in the bubble.
The key could be how well Frank Vogel can integrate Andre Drummond into the Lakers’ offense and defense and whether they can sign a quality high volume 3-point shooter in the buyout market to increase their made threes. We saw promising signs from the Harrell, Kuzma, and Horton-Tucker bench before James went down with the injury and the Lakers are going to need that trio to grow and develop down the stretch and in the playoffs to repeat.
They’re also going to need Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Markieff Morris, and Anthony Davis to play like they did in last year’s playoffs to have any chance of winning four playoff series and repeating as NBA champions this year. Schroder and Horton-Tucker are going to have to replace the magic Playoff Rondo provided last season and Anthony Davis is going to have match the hot long range shooting and dominating defense he provided last year.
Rob Pelinka and the Lakers’ front office bet this team could still win the championship without making a major trade. I’m hoping they were right and I was wrong because that’s what today’s decision was really about.
Finally, the biggest worry may be how today’s decision not to make any trades will impact the Lakers this summer as they basically kicked the can on making critically needed improvement down the road until this offseason.
As a taxpayer, they will not be able to take advantage of the non-taxpayer MLE or BAE or sign-and-trades as there’s no way they can keep Caruso and Horton-Tucker in free agency if they become hard capped like this season. The built-in raises for James, Davis, and Caldwell-Pope, Kuzma’s extension kicking in, and re-signing Caruso and Horton-Tucker will push the Lakers into the luxury tax. Win or lose, trades will be the only way to improve.
The Lakers prospects next summer will depend heavily on whether or not they repeat as champions. If they did, the goal will be to threepeat and the bet on the current roster and maybe Talen Horton-Tucker paid off big. Unfortunately, if they lose, everybody will look back at the decision to not trade for Kyle Lowry, LeBron will be a year older, and the Lakers may face tough decision about how to get their championship mojo back.
Right now, the next big battle is to sign Andre Drummond and a second rotation player who is a volume 3-point shooter and plus defender to help the Lakers weather the storm and win games until LeBron and AD get back.
Tonight’s game is going to be extremely important. This team has been given a huge vote of confidence by Rob Pelinka and the Lakers front office, coaching staff, and superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Make no mistake, Rob did not make the decision not to include THT in the trade for Lowry in a vacuum. It was obviously a decision made in advance and with everybody’s support. Whether fair or not, the team better come out tonight and play their asses off and show the confidence was warranted. Otherwise, things could go sideways in a hurry.
As I said in the article, I thought not pulling the trigger was a big mistake that could cost this championship and the future of the franchise for the rest of LeBron James career. Show me how wrong I was, Lakers, because I’m worried we missed a golden opportunity. I especially need to see Dennis, Kenny, and Talen play the best games of their careers and the Lakers to win. Otherwise, I’m going to go to bed haunted that I may have seen the last Lakers championship of my long and happy life.
Nah LT, “keep Hope Alive!” Who knows, perhaps Drummond joins. Also alot of really good Stars up for Free Agency after the season.
Kyle would’ve been great. If Schroder isn’t retained ( likely outcome, who knows)…maybe free agency. There was no way Riles was giving up Tyler and no way Rob was giving away THT. It would’ve been a giveaway. Those tend to slow burn like ether. When you let a diamond in the rough fall through quicksand.
Right now, I feel like taking every positive comment back that I made in the above article. The idea that we did not need any help via a trade is ridiculous. The fact that we didn’t make a single move is indefensible. Any front office that could not see this team is seriously flawed and changes needed to be made is incompetent.
The defense was horrible. I’m so tired of seeing Caruso play poorly, make bad passes, take bad shots, make dumb plays. 1 point, 3 turnovers, terrible defense. Team worst -10 along with Gasol, the only center who can’t score on a 6′ 7″ forward guarding him 2 feet from the basket. We refuse to trade THT, who showed tonight why he should have been traded. 1-6 from the field, more turnovers than points and assists. This is the guy we refused to trade. LMAO. Count me off of THT Island.
Schroder at least show some heart as well as Trezz. KCP and Kuzma were OK but inefficient. Morris is a shell of his last year version. Overall, 76ers are almost as flawed as the Lakers. Two G-League teams without their superstars. Lakers have about as much chance of going 14-14 in these last 28 games as we have of finding any real help in the buyout market. Competition all got better while Lakers talking themselves into a fantasy for which we’ll pay not only this year in the playoffs but also in a tough offseason.
Season’s over. Lakers suck!
hi Tom..hope everything is good in your end..i would not declare the season over..we have been high with this roster before the season begun..yes others may not have fit well as we have anticipated but still, they are playing right now without 2 of the very best players in the nba..without their 2 leaders for sure we would expect the outcome of how these players will be playing..LBJ makes everyone better..there is a reason why rob did not make a single move..he might not want to salvage the future of the organization by giving away a potential gem..so i guess the important thing that should happen is to be patient and hope that the team wins winnable games..i also guess that any other team will crumble when their leader is not playing for a long period of time..so don”t lose hope..we can still win it all this year..the ball is round.
Thanks, Havoc. Appreciate the concern. LOL. Like it or not, reasonable or unreasonable, my mental health often does fluctuate based on how and what the Lakers do. I do trust Rob but think he made a big mistake by not including THT and trading for Lowry or even making a deal for Oladipo or other options. Standing pat will be a big mistake imo. Hope I’m wrong and I’ll have no problem eating crow. Done a lot of that in my life. One of the costs of wearing your heart on your sleeve. Anyway, not going to stop rooting for the Lakers. Man, we need LeBron and AD back and healthy. Hope all is well with you and yours. The sun will hopefully break through for all of us, including the Lakers.
You need to change your name to Trader Tom.