If we’re to believe Rob Pelinka, one of the major changes the Lakers could be planning to deploy for the coming season is to go “back to the two-big model they used” to win their 2020 NBA Championship in the bubble.
Pelinka told ESPN the Lakers “have had talks with Anthony Davis about going back to the two-big model they used with Dwight Howard/JaVale McGee.” He also said “it was a big reason why Jaxson Hayes was signed.” Before Pelinka’s comments, Rui Hachimura was expected to be the fifth starter along with James, Davis, Reaves, and Russell. Not it looks as if the Lakers may also experiment in training camp with Jaxon Hayes starting.
During their 2020 championship regular season and playoffs, the Lakers two-big lineups dominated points-in-the-paint by 7.0 points per game while remaining close with respect to free throws made and 3-pointers made. Unfortunately, the move to play more small ball with Anthony Davis at center during the next three seasons led to the Lakers’ points-in-the-paint differential and positional size advantage completely disappearing.
That’s why the Lakers’ desire to return to the two-big model that won the championship should be a smart move, especially after losing to the bigger Nuggets and watching more and more teams opting to go with two-bigs.
Why Lakers Should Start Jaxson Hayes at Center
Starting Jaxson Hayes at the five with Anthony Davis at the four in a two-big lineup is more about the Lakers’ need to get bigger to dominate the boards and the paint than a pressing need to find minutes for the young 7-footer.
Frankly, by going big, the Lakers are essentially doubling down on their proven game strategy of winning the points-in-the-paint and free-throws-made competitions by more than they lose the the 3-point competition. Starting two bigs also makes a lot of sense to help the Lakers navigate the long regular season. It can help win games and reduces the wear-and-tear on Anthony Davis to keeps him fresh and healthy for the playoffs.
That’s not to say that Jaxson Hayes is not a talented young player with great size and athleticism. At 7′ 0″ and 220 lbs, Hayes’ four years with the Pelicans is filled with highlight reels of thunderous dunks and eye-dropping blocks. In his third season with the Pels, Hayes started 28 games and averaged 9.3 points, 4.5 boards, 0.6 assists, 0.8 blocks, and 0.6 steals in 20.0 minutes per game shooting 55.1% from field, 35.1% from deep, 76.6% from the line.
Unfortunately, Hayes’ fourth season was derailed by injuries that led to his play regressing and limited him to just 47 games. In the end, the Pelicans decided it was best to let Jaxson Hayes walk for nothing as a free agent.
The Lakers are hoping they can reach Hayes and get him to buy in to doing what they need from him as a big playing with and without Anthony Davis. The Lakers hope their staff can do for Hayes’ what they did for Monk.
Hayes doesn’t need to play like an all star for the Lakers two-big model to work. All he has to do is play solid drop coverage, rebound the ball, and protect the rim on defense and dunk every chance he gets on offense.
His presence alone with transform the Lakers’ dynamic at both ends and free up LeBron James and Anthony Davis to slide down a position and enjoy positional size advantage to dominate the paint going forward.
The Lakers wanted to go back to the two-big model to start last season but neither Damian Jones or Thomas Bryant was good enough to fill the starter role so the Lakers were forced to revert back to Anthony Davis at center. There’s a good chance that Jaxson Hayes will prove capable of holding down the starting center role next to Anthony Davis. It may not happen immediately but it’s high on the Lakers list of priorities for next season.
The Los Angeles Lakers need to restore the positional size advantage they enjoyed when they won their 17th championship in 2020 by starting 7′ 0″ center Jaxson Hayes alongside 6′ 11″ Anthony Davis in a two-big lineup.
Why Lakers Should NOT Start Jaxson Hayes at Center
The main reason the Lakers should not start the Jaxson Hayes at center alongside Anthony Davis in a two-big lineup because playing two bigs who don’t even shoot 30% from deep does not work in the modern NBA.
What the Lakers need to realize is this is no longer 2020. LeBron and AD are three years older and the teams with whom they’re competing are bigger and better than the ones they faced and defeated in the bubble. Strategically, what the Lakers need in a starting center is a legitimate stretch five who has the 3-point gravity to insure his defender remains attached and isn’t sagging off to pack the paint against LeBron and AD.
While the Lakers would like to return to the two-big model, they realize the only way they can effectively do that is with a center who can shoot the ball and space the floor rather than a traditional defensive oriented center. That’s why the Lakers are interested in Christian Wood, who not only has the size and length to protect the rim but also is an elite 3-level scorer who has shot over 50% from the field and over $37% from deep the last 4 years.
While the Lakers are hoping to be able to sign Christian Wood to a free agent minimum salary contract, there’s potential competition from the Chicago Bulls and Miami Heat that could end up paying him more money. Wood is holding out hoping the Bulls, Heat, or Lakers will end up offering him more than the minimum. He desperately wants to avoid the negative stigma of having to accept a veteran’s minimum salary to stay in the league.
The Lakers do have the ability to pull off a sign-and-trade with the Mavs for Christian Wood but it would mean trading fan favorite Jarred Vanderbilt, who will be on the final year of his very favorable $4.7 million contract. One major benefit of trading for Wood is it gives the Lakers his Bird rights so they could go over the cap to re-sign him instead of possibly losing him to free agency like happened with Malik Monk and Lonnie Walker.
As for Hayes, the Lakers see him as more in the Howard/McGee mold of defensive center who starts and eats minutes but doesn’t close games in the regular season and becomes the backup center off bench in the playoffs. While he’s not Christian Wood, Jaxson Hayes shot 35.1% while making 57 threes in 70 games 2 years ago and has consistently shot over 70% from the line since being in the league. Only 23, he could develop into a stretch 4/5.
The Lakers desire to play two-bigs could shape the team’s starting lineup for the coming season. Whether Christian Wood or Jaxson Hayes, the Lakers focus in camp and preseason will be testing the two-big model.
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I’m happy the Lakers have decided to get bigger. That’s an important strategic decision I like. AD will split time at 4 and 5. Which he starts as will depend on who the 14th player will be.
It’s obviously easier to do that than to suddenly start shooting threes better. Have to double down on what worked. Points in paint and made free throws. The Lakers’ formula.
Still have my fingers crossed that the Lakers land Wood. I think it’s 50/50 that the Lakers get him. I do think there’s a chance it will be via a S&T for maybe $5M and PO’s on 2nd and 3rd years. That way Lakers get 1-year trial and keep Bird rights while Wood gets chance to redeem his game and image and win a ring.
If no Wood, then I think we will try out Hayes starting in camp and maybe even give him the green light to shoot wide open threes. If he’s smart, he’s been working on that every single hour of the day. He’s a good free throw shooter and did shoot 35% two years ago. Anyway, we need him to eat up reg season minutes. AD would become backup 5 and close reg season games.
Deal with playoffs based on matchups.