The 3-point shooting revolution has taken a sudden change this year that threatens the Los Angeles Lakers’ chances of repeating as champions. The key metric to winning games has suddenly become the 3-point differential.
NBA teams are not only focusing on taking and making more threes than opponents but also on playing better perimeter defense to limit opponent takes and makes and to generate an insurmountable 3-point differential. Suddenly, the 3-point differential has become the preeminent box score stat that determines who wins the game. The modern blueprint for winning in today’s NBA is to outscore your opponent from beyond the 3-point line.
The surprise team leading the league right now are the 24–5 Utah Jazz, who have won 9 straight games and 19 of their last 20. The Jazz also boast the league’s top ranked 3-point differential of 5.6 threes and 16.8 points. The reason the Jazz have the best record in the league is simple. They’re not only making a league best 16.6 made threes per game on 39.3% shooting but also only allowing a league lowest 11.0 made threes per game.
NBA 3-POINT DIFFERENTIAL AS OF FEBRUARY 19, 2021
The Jazz even won the 3-point differential in the only game they lost of the last 20 games, hitting 20 of 47 threes for 42.6%. It took the Denver Nuggets hitting an incredible 18 for 28 threes for 64.3% to give the Jazz a rare loss. The league has been slow to give Quin Snyder and the Utah Jazz credit for being more than an early season surprise but the teams they’ve played understand their combination of 3-point offense and defense is daunting.
With Gobert protecting the rim freeing defenders to challenge threes and a cadre of dead eye shooters raining threes, the Jazz now have the 4th best offensive rating, 2nd best defensive rating, and best net rating in the league.
After making a change in defensive philosophy to prioritize defending the three over protecting the rim, the Lakers only allow 11.5 made threes per game, which is tied for the third fewest opponent threes in the league. Unfortunately, the Lakers only make 10.8 threes per game, 28th in the league, resulting in a negative 3-point differential: they allow 0.7 more threes and 2.1 points per game than they make, 18th out of 30 teams.
Alarmingly, the other three teams with the top four 3-point differentials are also teams the Lakers may end up facing on the road to the championship: the 2nd ranked Blazers, the 3rd ranked Nets, and the 4th ranked Clippers. The Portland Trail Blazers have a scary 3-point differential of 3.1 threes and 9.3 points, the Brooklyn Nets a differential of 2.6 threes and 7.8 points, and the Los Angeles Clippers a differential of 2.5 threes and 7.5 points.
What’s unnerving about the Lakers’ negative 3-point differential is there is limited room to improve defensively, which means the only way to close the gap is offensively, which may be impossible without major roster changes. Changes in the roster may be needed because the Lakers simply do not have the high volume 3-point shooters needed to increase the number of made threes and points generated to create a positive 3-point differential.
Right now, the closest the Lakers have to a high volume 3-point shooter is LeBron who’s taking 6.6 threes per game. Next in 3-point shot attempts are Kuzma with 3.7 per game, KCP with 3.7, Wes with 3.3, and Dennis with 3.1. None of these players, LeBron included, are legitimate volume 3-point shooters. Frankly, if the Lakers want to increase made threes and points, they’re going to need to change their roster and upgrade their offense.
Otherwise, they’re going to see more and more teams dominating them from deep like the Nets did last night, hitting 10 more threes for 30 more points. But they’re going to face a 3-point differentiaL gauntlet this year. The Jazz’ Mitchell and Clarson are averaging 8.7 and 8.6 threes per game, the Blazers’ Lillard and McCollum 10.8 and 11.0, the Nets’ Harden, Irving, and Harris 7.9, 6.8, and 6.6, the Clippers George and Leonard 7.9 and 4.9.
Last regular season, the Lakers took 31.6 threes per game and shot only 34.8%. They improved dramatically in the playoffs, taking 34.2 threes and shooting 35.4%. Defensively, they allowed 32.7 opponent threes per game. They made 12.1 threes and allowed 11.8 opponent threes in the playoffs, giving them a differential of 0.3 threes and 0.9 points. So it’s not impossible for the Lakers to win a championship with a low 3-point differential.
But the Lakers’ options are still limited. To start with, they need to make some basic changes in their offense to create more open threes and they need to encourage their players to take those shots when they’re available. Their 3-point attempts have declined over 10% the last 15 games. They took 31.9 threes per game the first 15 games but just 28.3 threes per game the last 15 games. While they’ve continued to win, the margin has gotten slim.
The Lakers best option is to look to move low 3-point volume starting guards Dennis Schroder and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope for a pair of high volume 3-point shooters to help improve their 3-point differential. Candidates the Lakers could target include Buddy Hield (10.3 3PG), Malik Beasley (8.7 3PG), Devonte Graham (8.1 3PG), Lonzo Ball (7.6 3PG), JJ Redick (4.6 3PG), Lauri Markkanen (7.2 3PG), Victor Oladipo (7.3 3PG).
The Lakers’ 3-point differential depends more on the volume than the percentage of threes made. While it’s not impossible for the Lakers to repeat as champions, their negative 3-point differential will make that difficult. The last thing they want is to play the four teams who have the best 3-point differentials in the league: Blazers in the first round, Clippers in the second round, Jazz in the conference finals, and then the Nets in the Finals.
The good news is the Lakers will have an opportunity at the trade deadline for moves to improve their rim protection and 3-point shooting. Let’s hope they recognize their negativer 3-point differential is their Achilles heel.
I find this article to be very informative and the stats support the facts. Never understand why the Lakers are never a good 3-point shooting team since the days of Fisher, Horry, Brian Shaw and the Machine. Teams are always red hot from 3-point range whenever they play the Lakers, but these stats gave me a good idea why.
I do have a question, however. Mckinnie and cook seem seem to make a high percentage of their 3s in garbage time. How about giving them some burn while AD and Schroeder are out. I know some might talk about their lack of defense, but at this point it’s like we are in preseason all over again. Also , we need to sit LeBron for the all-star game. He needs to rest. It is going to be long season and we can’t afford him to be half himself.
Thanks, Buba. The thing about 3-point shooting is that it’s not necessarily the shooting percentage that makes a different, although you have to make at least the league average of 37%.
It’s the volume of shots you take that matters most. Mike D’Antoni understands this. It’s the math that dominates. Shooting 33% from deep is the same as shooting 50% from the field. A team has to shoot 55% from two in order to match the league average of 37% from deep.
Bottom line, the Lakers don’t have any legitimate high volume 3-point shooters, which is a major problem with the roster makeup. Even more of a problem than rim protection. That LeBron is the most prolific 3-point shooter is ridiculous. You’re taking your best attack-the-rim weapon and having him fire away from deep. While it’s great to save energy, it’s ass backwards strategy. We should be surrounding him with nothing but high volume 3-point shooters.
The Lakers are playing with fire if they don’t make moves at the trade deadline to improve their negative 3-point shooting differential. 3-point differential has now become the driving stat that determines who wins in the NBA.
Here’s the top 7 teams in the NBA in terms of wins and losses:
1. 12-6 Utah Jazz
2. 22-8 Los Angeles Lakers
3. 22-9 Los Angeles Clippers
4. 20-10 Philadephia 76ers
5. 18-10 Portland Trail Blazers
6. 18-10 Phoenix Suns
7. 19-12 Brooklyn Nets
Now here’s the top 7 teams in 3-point differential, which tracks the net number of threes and points they score vs. allow:
1.16.8 ppg Utah Jazz
2. 9.3 ppg Portland Trail Blazers
3. 7.8 ppg Brooklyn Nets
4. 7.5 ppg Los Angeles Clippers
5. 6.3 ppg Houston Rockets
6. 5.4 ppg Phoenix Suns
7. 4.8 ppg Toronto Raptors
Notice that Utah Jazz, the team with the best win-loss record, also has the best 3-point differential. Notice that 2 of the top 3 and 5 of the top 7 teams with best records also are on the list of teams with best 3-point differential. This is not a coincidence.
Also notice that only two teams of the 7 with the best record do NOT appear on the list of 7 teams with the best 3-point differential: the defensive minded Los Angeles Lakers, who rank 18th with a -2.1 differential, and the old school Philadephia 76ers, who rank 28th with a -7.8 point differential
The eye test is telling you that same thing the 3-point differential stats are telling you: win the 3-point shot differential and you likely will win the game. The Lakers got a harsh lesson about that in their thrashing by the Brookly Nets, where they were outshot by 10 threes and 30 points.
I included an image of Lonzo Ball and JJ Redick at the top of this article because those are exactly the type of high volume shooters the Lakers need to upgrade their 3-point differential.
Trading Schroder and KCP for Ball and Redick is the kind of move the Lakers need to make before the trade deadline. In 25 games with the Pelicans, Lonzo and JJ have made 47 more threes for a total of 141 more points than Schroder and KCP in their 30 games with the Lakers.
That’s an average of 5.64 additional points per game, which would have changed the Lakers 3-point differential from -2.1 points per game to 3.5 points per game, which would have moved the Lakers’ 3-point differential to 11th place. Adding 5.64 points per game would have doubled the Lakers’ current net rating and catapulted them from 4th to 1st in the league.
I’m not holding my breath for the Lakers to make a bold move because the team seems to have ignored this problem from the moment LeBron James joined the team, despite the proven blueprint for winning when you have James is to surround him with elite high percentage, high volume 3-point shooters.
But the prospect of facing the Blazers, Clippers, Jazz, and Nets in succession to repeat as champions should mnotivate Pelinka to get the Lakers some legitimate high volume 3-point shooters. Otherwise, we risk blowing a great opportunity to win our 18th NBA championship and establish another Lakers’ dynasty.
https://twitter.com/LakerTom/status/1363187554963517444
Yep, so the key is not to let opponents drop 14 3’s on you. Also Lakers force 14.7 TO’s in wins vs. just 10.6 TO’s in losses.
Tom, good research but it doesn’t appear that the Lakers have changed much from last year when had a -.6 difference per game equaling -1.8 per game compared to -.7 this year equaling 2.1 ppg. Plus last year reg season leaders in 3pt diff was Houston (3.4)10.2 pts per game and Dallas (2.8) 8.4 ppg. Utah was also excellent last year in the reg season with a (+2.4 ) 7.2 per game. Maybe the real difference is whether these teams can sustain that difference in the playoffs. Last year teams didn’t. We know playoffs is a different game. I agree we need to get a few more up per game and shoot a tad bit better. Perhaps this recent poor shooting stretch is more of an outlier. Lakers only shooting 29% from 3pt in Feb. Biggest culprits are THT 8%, AD 10%, Caruso 20% and KCP and Lebron 27%.
Great research LRob. Most of our woes are on the defensive end where we give up too many easy points in the paint and wide open three pointers to decent shooters.