The Los Angeles Lakers find themselves in the unenviable position of facing a ‘must win’ first round playoff game this Thursday because Frank Vogel has stubbornly ignored the team’s glaring need to make major lineup changes.
Before you shake your head and declare it’s just one game, remember this is no longer the regular season or even the regular playoffs. The bubble has changed everything and like the NBA signs say, it’s a ‘Whole New Game.’ There is no home court. There are no fans to cheer the home team to rally. There is not even a season to continue after a five month hiatus. There’s just the bubble and games played in its strangely sterile virtual atmosphere.
After last night’s devastating loss to the upstart Portland Trail Blazers, Lakers’ head coach Frank Vogel faces a potential career defining decision what to do to fix his team’s daunting offensive woes before it’s too late. Standing pat and waiting for law of averages to catch up and the Lakers’ shots to start falling is no longer a viable option. Waiting for that would be like hoping for the Covid-19 pandemic to miraculously disappear.
The sad reality is the Lakers aren’t going to suddenly start playing like the team they were five months ago when they downed the Clippers and Bucks in front of thousands of enthusiastic cheering Lakers’ fans in Staples Center. The wheels that were starting to come off then and are wobbling badly now are not going to magically repair themselves. They need to be replaced with new wheels and a game plan based on today rather than a fools’ gold past.
JaVale McGee’s not going to start playing like before the All-Star break. Danny Green’s not going to find the fountain of youth and be able to defend any more. KCP’s not going to start hitting his shots like five months ago. Frank Vogel needs to understand he now has a different team and is facing a totally different situation and the only way for the Lakers to have a chance to win the championship in this bubble is for him to make major changes.
The changes the Lakers need have been painfully obvious since the restart. Vogel needs to bench McGee and start Davis at five and Kuzma at the four and replace Green and KCP with Caruso and Waiters as the starting guards. The Lakers need to surround LeBron and AD with shooters who can spread the floor, stretch the defense, and open up lanes to attack the rim. Playing two bigs plays simply allows opposing teams to slow down LeBron and AD.
The Lakers no longer have the luxury to be loyal and give players time to get their games together. They cannot risk going down two games to none to a team with a superstar guard who can rain deep threes like Damian Lillard. Starting James, Davis, Kuzma, Caruso, and Waiters will give the team improved speed and quickness on defense and their two superstars the spacing they need for better scoring and playmaking opportunities.
Going small was the blueprint the #6 seed New Orleans Pelicans used to sweep the favored #3 seed Portland Trail Blazers in the first round of the 2018 playoffs and it’s the formula Frank Vogel needs to adapt right now. One of the architects of the Pelicans’ stunning upset of the Blazers two years ago was none other than Rajon Rondo, whom Vogel should look to run the second unit when LeBron James rests and Anthony Davis takes over.
The Lakers need to narrow their rotation starting Thursday night. Besides starters James, Davis, Kuzma, Caruso, and Waiters, Vogel should go with an eight player rotation with Rondo, Morris, and Howard being the reserves. Should we need more shooting, Cook should be given a chance. Should somebody get into foul trouble, Green, Caldwell-Pope, or McGee could fill in but only on a short leash since they have not played well in the bubble.
We’ll find out Thursday night if Vogel has the smarts or courage to make these changes but he should know LA is not Indiana or Orlando and his job as head coach of the Los Angeles Lakers won’t survive a first round exit.
One thing that I misjudged was how the Lakers would react to the bubble. I expected LeBron and our veteran team to have an advantage under the unique circumstances and dominate play. That obviously is not what has happened so far. Apparently, the Lakers’ home advantage is a huge factor we miss dearly.
What’s most frustrating to me is everything could now hang on Frank Vogel making changes and considering his hesitancy to do that all season long, that’s extremely worrisome. His subbing Danny Green for Kyle Kuzma with 8 minutes left in the 4th quarter after Kuz had just scored 4 straight points and 7 of the last 9 points to give us a 6-point lead was an inexcusable and brain dead move for a coach to make.
If Vogel makes the right moves, we can right the ship and still win this series in 5 games. For obvious reasons, I seriously doubt Frank is going to make the right moves. We still are so much better than the Blazers we might still survive but the law of averages is going to catch up with us at some point as we run the gauntlet of the Blazers, Rockets, Clippers, and Bucks. We will not win the championship unless Frank Vogel makes major changes.
Have to disagree on benching McGee. Especially against the likes of a Nurkic/Whiteside tandem. In many ways, it’s not Vogel that’s the issue but the status of Anthony Davis as future Lakers cornerstone that’s the true issue. Davis isn’t going to play major minutes at the 5. he’s not going to start at the 5, not unless elimination is at stake, or so it would seem. He doesn’t want to bang and pick up nick-knack injuries and, frankly, I don’t blame him. Everything we can accomplish rides on he and James.
Benching KCP in favor of either Waiters (my first choice) or Caruso (my second) puts Pope back on the 2nd unit where, despite the stats, the win/loss record with him as a starter, I think he plays better. He’s just not an NBA starter on a playoff team. That’s not a knock, not everyone is. I don’t think Caruso is, for instance. But Dion can be. he has the talent and he would give that starting unit the secondary ball handler it desperately needs to become less one-dimensional.
With just under 2 minutes to go last night was either team’s ball game to win. Taking Kuzma out was a mistake, taking Dwight out was a mistake but the true issue was our overall lack of execution and our inability to hit free throws. Again. While I agree that waiting for the law of averages is foolish I also disagree that the Lakers need to go full D’Antoni and re-invent how we play basketball at this point. We have an identity and I don’t see us going away from it.
Green isn’t going to be benched. It’s just not going to happen. Now, he may end up playing fewer crunch time minutes if he keeps bricking crunch time shots. McGee isn’t going to sit in favor of sliding Davis to the 5. Davis is the reason for that, not Vogel, not McGee: Anthony Davis.
And, yes, it is only one game. There are lessons to be learned but the lesson isn’t run around in a panic and blow up the line up that got you to the best record in the western conference just like Milwaukee won’t bench Middleton for not making threes or re-work their identity. They’ll go about it professionally: they’ll hone their execution, preach making free throws and roll the dice like every other team against the Blazers.
One more thing that hasn’t been put out there a lot. The Blazers have been EXTREMELY lucky. They’re not getting called for pushing off on the perimeter, for setting really illegal screens and they won’t be getting an emotional boost from a home crowd, either. While that may not effect Dame guys like Whiteside, Nurkic and other role-players will come back down to Earth. So, while it was disconcerting to see the Lakers lose the first game it doesn’t mean we have to go Full Chicken Little. Switching KCP for Waiters should be enough of an adjustment.
We’ll have to A2D, Jamie. But you need to take a hard look at McGee’s stats post All-Star Break and in the Bubble.
And I would argue part of AD’s poor performance has been because of McGee and Howard clogging up the middle.
There are also many quotes from AD saying he is more than willing to play the 5 in the playoffs. I’m sure he would prefer that than going fishing.
I should say that I don’t see AD starting at the 5. Could be McGee or Dwight. But we won’t start small, not against the Blazers.
He is playing the five, just not starting there. He warms up to the game at the 4, plays the 5 after LeBron goes to the bench, usually in the second half. He’s played the five all season. But there is a difference between ‘playing the five’ and ‘starting at the five’. He would prefer to go against a center in foul trouble, a center that’s been up and down the floor a few times. That’s smart, he’s not a tank player, much more finesse.
I don’t need to look at any stats to see that McGee has played like, well, like JaVale McGee. He’s solid for 15-18 mpg. By solid I in no way do I mean spectacular or dynamic. You, and many others, say he clogs up the paint. This is true but I find it more true on defense than on offense. Neither he or Dwight just sit in the paint and stand there, walking into LeBron’s way and disrupting the offense. They open LeBron’s game by setting screens from the free throw line up.
But the impact both guys bring on defense is real. When our defense is working they allow Davis to be the elite help defender that he is and not forcing him into the role of stalwart. They rim-run, rebound and generally do it fairly well. It often doesn’t show on the stat sheet, in really any measurable way, what the two centers for the Lakers bring.
I get the spacing thing. The guards who are getting minutes aren’t making their shots. So, if we;re going to go around benching guys let’s at least start with the ones not fulfilling their roles first. The truth is, I don’t beleive Frank will bench any of them and that the likelihood that the current starting 5 is greatly altered, or altered at all, is low. A blow out loss will pave the way for quicker change. A close loss akin to the first one will probably stretch it out another game. A win will keep everything as is.
Funny. After editing the comment using the Comment editor it added the \ prior to every ‘
It’s a bug we’re trying to fix. Refreshing the page corrects it. The problem is related to Ajax, which post comments and updates pages without having to refresh the page. Niyas is working on it. Thanks.
I have been experiencing the same problem.
Bug now fixed!