5 THINGS

It can be easy to look too far ahead in life. To project into the future may may or may not occur. In the case of being a fan of the Lakers it’s almost easier to look back and see all that could have gone better, or in some cases, worse. When it comes to the start of the 2024-25 season I have, thus far, resisted the urge to define what this Lakers team will look like and prioritize. Too many variables left unaccounted for over the summer. Sure, we brought back the same roster, but folks tend to forget that Vincent and Vando barely played, Rui wasn’t available for the first month or so with a calf strain and then again for a couple weeks when he had the nasal fracture. The piling on Darvin Ham started early and didn’t really let up due both to his roster indecisiveness and some curios in-game choices that led to losses. New coaching blood was brought in, along with a couple rookies, and so everyone seemed to expect a sort of repeat from last season. That narrative ignores a lot of facts and when those are taken into account it’s not as surprising we’re not having de ja vu this season but getting a fresher, more exciting outcome.

1. The emergence of Anthony Davis. It’s not often you see a player take a step forward this late in their career. I can honestly say I have never seen AD this dominant, confident and forceful in his play. Nothing tangible has changed much; looking at his shot chart it’s the same batch of AD type shots he’s always taken. What’s changed is both his demeanor (pissed off and hungry for respect he feels is lacking) and the team’s focus on getting him the ball early and not just on post ups. If you watch the best all around centers (Jokic and Sabonis) they get the ball above the free throw line out to the three point line and make reads off of that. They function in spots Kobe used to operate from and then, when he had the perfect Robin to his Bat Man in Pau Gasol, he ceded those spots to the Big Spaniard in favor of letting him generate easy offense in the half court. That never meant the iso game went away, it was simply relied upon a lot less and the team benefitted from it instantly. So, too, has this change elevated the laker offense as a whole. Gone are the muddy possessions where two or three players are operating out of the elbows, the corner and the arc three point line. That allowed the defense to load up on AD more and cut off driving lanes. These sets, to me, look vaguely like old triangle sets. AD at the elbow up to the three point line, a single shooter stationed down in the corner and another player moving through space creating the angled set of the same name: a triangle. I’ll get more into this idea down yonder but this kind of action has allowed AD to score, make a play for others and elevate the entire team in the doing.
2. LeBron still LeBron. I kinda started to wonder…was this what he was going to look like all season? Under 20 ppg, decent impact, solid all around play, but markedly less impact than hoped for but we were winning so who cares? Cue Saturday night and a dominant 4th quarter run that put the Lakers firmly in the driver’s seat to close out the win. It’s good to know that the ultimate safety valve can still dial it up when needed. I also liked his post game comments about not needing to do that all game because we’re a team. It’s that camaraderie that we’ll need more of when the games get harder, possibly as soon as tonight on the road, to help weather storms and bumpy patches.
3. Using the rookie right. Dalton Knecht is being used in the exact right way. He’s playing about 7-8 minutes/half and not generally in crunch time moments allowing him to both build up stamina (and hopefully avoid a rookie wall later in the season) and build up his confidence at the same time, although watching him play makes me think he doesn’t really lack for confidence. Still I’d rather see him continue in this way with a really specific role for the young man and let him grow into his talent rather than trying to rush things along because he’s had a nice stretch of play. Being the microwave scorer off the bench while playing a steady game in this role is the perfect way to incubate a rookie who you don’t necessarily need to rely on consistently just yet.
4. The struggles of Max Christie. It’s not that he’s playing poorly, he’s making the right play in front of him, for the most part, and not forcing anything. It’s just that he won’t have a role when Vando comes back which will hopefully be before Thanksgiving. Max is too light to guard the bigger NBA players he often gets switched onto in our defensive schemes, isn’t aggressive enough (or frankly good enough) to be a microwave scorer, and generally looks like he’s topped out his skill set and talent at this point out there. Yes, I know we gave him a big deal early in free agency (and have often wondered why) but when Jarred returns there won’t be a role for him and even Hayes’ minutes could suffer a bit based on matchups. On the upcoming road trip I see two games where Max’s minutes will probably go to Bronny: in Cleveland for a Father/Son homecoming of sorts and maybe in Detroit if Max continues to have a willowy impact. Bronny could also see some action on the back-to-back in Toronto and let Vincent rest a game on the bench. Back to Max, he needs to find a higher level of aggression. I don’t need him to be the next Lou Williams but his presence needs to be felt and too often it simply is not.
5. Coach Reddick pushing the right buttons so far. The honeymoon continues and the wins keep coming so what’s not to like? The rotations, mainly due to good health this season so far, have looked better. The biggest add has been off ball activity from our guards and wings from the corner spots. The defense has showed us some different looks and it will be interesting to see what ole Vando has/gets when he comes back. But, for me, the overall movement on offense and quick decisions we’re seeing are what’s setting Coach Reddick apart from his predecessor. As illustrated above, we’re seeing some triangle 101 type action to create movement and flow. This opens up backdoor cuts, defensive indecision which allows for quick scores, and a general “share the wealth” vibe which behooves great basketball. A lot fewer iso sets is always welcome, in my opinion. Not forcing threes because it’s 2024 and there’s only one way that everyone thinks basketball need be played now is always welcome. Enabling guys like Reaves and AD to make plays for others so the burden shifts away from LeBron having to do everything or relying on DLo to go off. This style of hoops has opened up Rui and Reave’s games a lot and here’s hoping this is the new status quo.

Next up, a 5 game roadie starts tonight in Phoenix who likely would like to whup us pretty good. Great test of all the principles outlined above and here’s hoping we keep the good times rolling.

Lotta “First” boxes checked last night. Bronny James and his pop shared the floor to check his first game and the first time a father/son duo shared the floor together. Dalton Knecht netted his first bucket(s). Coach Reddick got his first win. The Lakers won their first game. Only first left un-checked was Bronny scoring his first bucket, as well. After all that hullaballoo it would have been easy to lose the game, like so many historic moment games have gone of late, but after going back to the tried and true formula for recent Laker wins we pulled out the W and started the season right.

1. No answer for AD. This must be the new way forward. There can’t be any disappearing acts this season if AD wants the respect that has recently proved elusive, and for the Lakers to reach their goals this is the way Anthony Davis needs to play night in and night out. 11-23 from the floor, (1-3 from three point land) to go with 16 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 blocks and a steal. There are few defenders that can hang with Davis and when he asserts himself it’s an entirely different looking Lakers team. AD creates shots and space in a manner that goes against the modern NBA grain: from the inside out. By dominating inside Davis creates shots for his perimeter guys and cutters. If he can average 5+ assists per game along with everything else he will be in the MVP conversation and rightly so.
2. The Glue Man. If AD is a force of nature, Austin Reaves is the bond that makes everything look smooth. His all around effort and performance helped make this a rebounding neutral game (one where, for a time, we were dominant on the glass (until the effort of the T’Wolves up ticked after halftime). Like most of the team his three ball proved elusive but it didn’t deter him from being aggressive on the glass and in getting into the heart of the defense to make plays or shots. Nothing, except maybe the rebounds, jumps off the stat sheet but if you watched the games you saw a player applying pressure on the defense, contesting shots and aggressively hunting the rebound. That’s what we need out of Austin Reaves on the daily.
3. The Rui Hachimura Power Game. It feels like a cosmic event, only seen once every few weeks or even months. But so far during the NBA 2024-25 season the power game of Rui Hachimura has been used every single game. Last night it was on full display and here’s hoping it’s around to stay. Gone were the willowy step back fade aways. Instead we saw player seeking contact and going up through it using both speed and power to get closer to the basket. Even on his jump shots I thought he was better about going straight up and into the shot rather than drifting back or to one side or the other. This, like Reaves, is the version of the player we need to see the most consistently. If he plays like this and averages close to 20 ppg on decent efficiency he’ll be in line for a most improved player award.
4. The “new” Laker identity. Again, t’was but one single game. Still, it’s hard to ignore the fact that the Lakers won this game the way they won so many games the last 2 seasons regardless of the coach: power over style or volume. The Lakers interior game was stellar leading to a +32 point discrepancy in points in the paint. The free throw line battle was also a place we won, albeit by a single point, but the aggressiveness and pressure we apply by playing with force and attacking the basket is an advantage this team has that few do in the modern game. When the three ball was obviously not falling did we refuse to adapt and just keep chucking up bad shots? No, we pressed further into the defense and found guys around the rim and dominated the paint. Like we need to. As I’ve said, there is no correct answer to thew question of how many ______’s should we shoot? The number of any kind of shot attempts taken is inconsequential if winning is the objective. The answer will be different every night. What was heartening to see, for me anyhow, was that we didn’t try to re-forge an identity in one game. That we shot 5-30 from distance shows me that some guys aren’t consistent enough to make the three pointer the uber weapon some insist we must embrace beyond reason. That we pivoted away and went inside also showed me that both coach and player are adaptable and will seek to find what works beyond the outer politics of the game. As it should be.
5. Rookie Watch 2025! They played. Knecht looked like he did in preseason: steady, albeit slow to react on defense. Bronny, too, in his whopping 3 minutes of game action in that he played hard if mostly ineffectually (nice offensive rebound though). Still, it was nice to get the side show over with and they can both move on to improving their games. In general I don’t see much of a role for Bronny that Reddish can’t do better and Knecht may ultimately lose minutes to Vando once he returns and if he can score ably enough. That’s OK, they’re both young and we can maybe slide Knecht into Max Christie’s minutes since he still looks a long way from ready for prime time. Either way, they’re both development projects, like Koloko will be should he ever get cleared, this season and my hope is they can slide into the roster slots and roles vacated next summer by Reddish and Wood. Knecht may prove to be further along than that but it’s early and he’s not going to get the minutes he can see down in the G League. A riddle for the staff to ponder, assuredly.

The Los Angeles Lakers 75th season begins on today, 10/22/2024. It’s Bronny James’ first season and Papa James’ 22nd. It’s Coach Reddick’s first year steering the team and he is the Lakers 29th head coach. I pick the Lakers to finish 7th in the Western Conference and 4th in the Pacific Division. I expect AD to win zero major awards despite his unique talents and skills. So it begins anew. A fresh, clean season!

1. Every new season in every sport is defined as much by optimism and hope as it is reality. For the Lakers hope comes in two forms: the health of their 2 superstars and the quick growth of Coach Reddick. Getting AD and LBJ through preseason healthy was, for me, a huge priority. Even with them playing in the vast majority of games last season we were only good for the Playin spots. So it stands to reason that, if they’re not available, we’re looking at a lottery placement. The integration and ascension of J.J. Redick as coach I expect to take more than just preseason. I’ve hard a lot of wonderful thoughts and ideas, read a lot of super interesting articles regarding those thoughts and ideas and it still leads me to a “now we’ll see” place. With a healthy AD and LeBron and some questionable health on down the line after them we were good enough to get to the 1st round of the playoffs under Darvin Ham who made a surprise run to the Western Conference Finals in his first season, a success that likely created an over-inflated opinion of what this roster is really capable of. After he was fired the Lakers went in a not-all-that unexpected direction by picking someone close to LeBron James…who had never coached anyone in his life other than 4th graders. Much has been made of his acumen as a player and a podcaster but, for my part, those are traits best suited for lead videographer on a staff, not the head coach. What I’ve seen on the floor has left a lot to be desired, so far. None of what’s happened really matters since A) He is the current coach, B) Our first option turned us down, C) The candidates after that were not guaranteed success stories in the making. Things working against JJ are the shorter preseason, the fact we had to travel to Milwaukee for one whole game, and that LeBron and AD both played significant roles in the Olympics. So I’m giving him the year to work this out better than I thought Coach Ham did. Here’s hoping.
2. Things I’m worried about. The defense and our rebounding. None of those have looked much better in preseason…but then again it’s preseason. Part of the problem is neither Reaves or DLo are organic glass crashers, they just don’t ball hunt off the shot very well. LeBron is old, doesn’t want to jump for a rebound and land on someone’s foot or worse. I get that. That basically leaves AD and Rui until Vando gets back or someone else off the bench distinguishes themselves as an active rebounder. On defense we have a similar issue in that Rui and DLo tend to lose focus on defense. Reaves competes but can be backed down with ease. LeBron is old and will put forth effort…when the moment demands it of him. That leaves AD until Vando gets back. Gabe has been OK, but I think he’s still under-sized and lacks the quickness he had as recently as his time in Miami. Not sure if it’s something he can get back with reps and playing more or if he’s aging out of the ball hawk role. Regardless, I haven’t loved our schemes, either. We’re awful in transition, we switch on screens too quickly rather than fighting which has a dual effect: we’re getting fewer fouls called on offensive players (which at a minimum helps et a tone and can help get key guys in foul trouble).
3. Things I’m not worried about. Scoring, in general. The shot profile in preseason can get tossed out the window because LeBron played zero 4th quarter minutes in preseason and AD played like 5 or so. LeBron also passed up a lot of shots he should take, which I expect he will once the games matter. Other than that everyone looked about the way they have for the last year and change. On the topic of three pointers DLo, Rui and Reaves are streaky, AD can take and make threes but we’re so much better off when he operates in and around the paint there’s no real need to stash him out there, and the guys off the bench are just plain inconsistent. There isn’t an number of threes I want to see us taking/game. They can be literally any number…as long as they are quality shot attempts. This is where the myth of the “green light” is easily exposed. I want all of our players to feel comfortable taking open (defender is more than 5 feet away from you) shots from everywhere. That is going to be a quality shot. Time winding down, 3 seconds or less on the clock, let it fly and so with confidence, there isn’t time for the play to evolve further. But if we just got the ball across the line and you call for a screen and jack it up because you’re feeling it or whatever, that my friends is a bad shot attempt. Even if it goes in, not what you want to see from pros. Work the ball into AD, let the defense collapse around him, move to your sweet zone and set you feet with hands in the ready position. You are now prepared to take a good shot. That’s what we need a lot more of. I still expect to see us dominate the paint, I’d like to see our shooters shoot smart threes, as many as can be generated, and if we accomplish that I don’t think we need to worry all that much about putting points on the board.
4. The rookies. Bronny and Dalton are the only two drafted but Quincy Olivari will find himself in the mix as quick as either of those two if he keeps bringing the hustle. All three have issues: Bronny can’t shoot, yet. Dalton has no lateral foot speed and gets blown by with ease. Quincy is raw but seems to be a blend of both Dalton and Bronny. I think Dalton can carve out a solid role for himself on this team, maybe even have some crunch time opportunities in actual games. But I’m not investing all that much in summer or preseason games. Some guys shine as brightly as the lights do, some guys wilt under that heat. All three will get tested this season and my hope is they can show the best versions of themselves when the moment comes. I am not expecting or hoping for much impact from any of them beyond that. Of the 3 Knecht likely has the most assured role off the bench, at this time.
5. Two Way Contracts 101. I keep seeing posts and articles that seem to insinuate that Koloko or Olivari can have a huge impact on the season. If they do, they’ll only have 50 games in the regular season to do so. Two Way players CANNOT play in the playoffs. In order for Koloko or Olivari to be playoff-eligible we’d have remove one of our standard contracts and not take a player back. For that reason along with the fact that we don’t have any non or partially guaranteed deals on the roster, I expect them to stay two-ways. Could something shake loose in a trade? I guess so but that would mean trading out more players than we bring back and even then we would also need to bring in a lot less money than we sent out in order to get them under the 2nd apron. All second apron penalties apply once you cross over, there is no grace period. Can they be feel good development stories? Absolutely. Will they transform our season and alter the trajectory of the franchise? In short, no.

Go Lakers.

Maybe not so much. Everyone just chill out for a sec. I did a couple podcasts and watched angry comment after angry comment along the lines of “Rob can’t close” and “Jeannie sucks” or “LeBron has ruined the Lakers…waaaaaah” and found it all, well, hilarious. They couldn’t play Salary Cap-A-G-Go because they had no-go. Here are some facts: the Lakers started free agency capped out if all of their player option players opted in. They all opted in, leaving LeBron James as the sole player with an option left to pick up or a deal to renegotiate. There was a rumor, not one started by LeBron I imagine, that he would take a pay cut in order to facilitate a small list of preferred players onto the Lakers. If true, that would have been interesting to see just how magnanimous the King was willing to be. Since most of the players on this infamous mystery list have signed onto other teams let’s take a moment to breathe and let reality work it’s magic.

1. LeBron isn’t ruining jack. Honestly…just…just stop with this BS. The man plays harder at 39 than half the league that’s almost half his age. He was never going to leave. I doubt he was ever actually considering a pay cut given the cap gymnastics it would require of Rob who, frankly, simply isn’t up to the task or the job. Had such a thing happened it would have surprised me. I’m not too full of myself to admit that now, even if it does end up happening, in order to free up the full MLE LeBron would have to take something like a $20 million dollar pay cut (my apologies for being bad at math and not having a ton of time to work this out. As I understand it-and I could be wrong and welcome factual corrections-in order to use the NTPMLE we’d need to get below the 2nd apron line by the amount that we use, with LeBron’s $50 million cap hold we’re at $178 mil, the 1st apron stops at $170 mil which means we need to get down to $158 mil…I think???). You don’t like him hoping to play with his kid? Seems kinda heartless given how much of his time he’s given basketball and now he dares, DARES, to want to share that time with his eldest son?!?!?! The nerve of the man… Don’t like how the coaches he doesn’t respect get fired? Tell that to Magic fucking Johnson who got a head coach fired before it was en vogue, he’s the OG coach firing guy folks. Don’t like how it feels like we’ve handed the keys of the entire franchise over to one player? Tell that to Kobe Bryant (R.I.P) who basically got Shaq traded after a season he spent the majority of in a Colorado courthouse so he could settle out of court. If you don’t get that this is the Laker Way I honestly don’t know what team you have been watching.
2. Rob Pelinka sucks at his job. Don’t believe me? Let’s count how many $8 million contracts are being lined up for THT who, if he’s lucky, will sign for a vet minimum but more likely end up playing for more money overseas with Dwight Howard or something. Stop blaming LeBron for a weak-kneed, jelly-brained GM. LeBron is doing what he can, he’s even working the phones trying to get a buddy to come play for cheap. No, no this entire team has the stain of ineptitude left by Rob all over it. From another rookie head coach (back-to-back baby!) to another strained salary cap situation and no discernable plan in sight these are the hallmarks of a Rob Pelinka team my friends. Now, in Rob’s defense, he didn’t have a lot to work with coming into the season. So if the plan was to hope that every single player option didn’t get picked up thus reducing the amount LeBron would need to donate back to the Lakers to zero if that list included Russell…well…that’s an incredibly shitty plan. If the plan, and I really have to assume there was one of some kind, was to hope that DLo, Cam, Wood and Jax all opted out and sought greener pastures so that we could open up the Non Tax Payer MLE (thus losing 4 players for one much cheaper player) the man should be fired. If the plan was to convince Chris Paul, Klay Thompson or DeMar DeRozan to take the vet minimum like he did Trevor Ariza (no other team wanted him) and Carmelo Anthony (no other team wanted him) and I forget what other NBA AARP member was on that ill-fated squad, he’s just not paying attention.
3. Where’s AD? Just like the 4th quarter of a big game…AD is nowhere to be seen. I’m sure he’ll bounce back tomorrow. Argentina? Cape Town? Who knows. He’s locked in anyhow, he can’t renegotiate his deal, so not too sure what he’d do to help other than remind LeBron to eat his power shake made from the souls of NBA legends long since passed. “AD, the Jerry West shake is DELICIOUS!” (too soon?). I kid though, AD is the cornerstone and is doing his job as quietly as this modern world allows. I hope.
4. It’s not that bad y’all. Seriously, it isn’t. At this point let’s assume that LeBron is going to end up taking the max for 1,2 or 3 years, hopefully with team and/or player options of some kind that make it so we’re not screwed if he gets seriously hurt. We have AD, for all his strengths and flaws, DLo who can be a difference-maker in the regular season and a couple good games in the playoffs (maybe), solid players on cheapish contracts and we’re getting younger. That’s the main thing I think is being influenced by Reddick in all honesty. There may be a conflict of interests in that I can’t imagine J.J. Reddick wants to spend his first few season butting heads with vets who are about his age and have done more in the league than he ever did. I think he would much rather coach a team with a vet he knows well (LeBron) a vet he’s hopefully apologized to for ranking him so poorly defensively (AD) some solid role-players still looking to make a serious mark (the rest of the starters and most of the bench) and young guys (Knecht and I dunno…JHS I guess, maybe Lewis and Castleton). Remember, we ended last season just 5 games out from being the 4th seed. That was with injuries to Vando and Vincent that sidelined them most of the regular season. If AD and LBJ can largely replicate their health from last season and some of the role guys improve or just play, that could be a big enough swing to take us out of the playin and into the playoff realm. One could also argue the west got a little weaker this summer with talent dispersing itself more equitably (by design and courtesy of the new CBA).
5. So, in your opinion Jamie just why has this been such a quiet free agency for the Lakers? Glad you asked, here’s what I think: we had no cap space, not even the TPMLE to start free agency because we had to wait on players to opt in, not surprisingly they waited until basically the last second because they hoped something better would open up, when their agents told them that wasn’t likely they opted in thus removing all potential cap space from the equation. Simple logic. Concerning our draft picks 5 years out and the pick swaps and all that…they’re not as valuable as they used to be (or some people think they are) because nobody knows how bad the Lakers will be. If the Lakers are good, the picks will probably be mediocre, at best. The lottery system also dissuades teams from giving up the ghost for a potential rookie 5 years from now when GM X may or may not even have a job. The new CBA penalties are draconic and we’re seeing that play out in free agency. Max contracts for under-performing players are toxic. Injured players with gas left in the tank (their opinion, of course) are signing for pennies. My takeaway is that having 10-15 million in actual cap space every summer is going to be the new modus operandi for a lot of teams now. We’ll see more teams taking a hit by letting a guy walk to free up space so they can use all the spending tools a lot of teams absolutely rely on to fill out the margins. Otherwise you’ll be like the Knicks: watching a quality player walk for nothing to another team with money to pay him. Bird Rights in trades will be ESSENTIAL going forward because we saw Hartenstein walk and the Knicks had his Early Bird Rights…wasn’t enough. That second apron will be the death of super teams and the three super star model, by design, but it may also herald the end of the two superstar teams depending on which superstars are available at any given moment. We got 2 guys taking up over 50% (approaching 60%) of our 1st apron tax space.
   
   One last point, on the pride of an elite athlete. It has been tossed about that a player of Chris Paul’s caliber and possibly even Klay Thompson or DeMar DeRozan could be had for the vet minimum. I’m not talking specifically here, just in general I see a lot of that stuff. I don’t think we factor in things like “personal pride” or “hard work” enough. Ask yourself a simple question: if someone who had never done your job before, who was also the owner manager of your work place, came up to you and said something along the lines of “I know you make $25/hour now…but about taking $15/hour so we can hire someone else? Oh, also and by the way, I’M not taking any kind of pay cut at all. So…whaddaya think!?” you would be pissed. You would be angry. You would do what Klay Thompson just did and find another job, maybe even for the amount the other guy asked you for because eff you pal. These are people who are elite, all of them, even JHS. They are the top 1% of the basketball world and it’s by a really large margin. It’s everyone’s choice how to view that and factor it into trades or contract offers but in this one area I actually think the Lakers lead the league and that is respecting the work. Getting off the soap box now, next man up.