5 THINGS

The world of sport is funny, so much is made of nuanced stats and metrics. Graphs and formulas for how you can win populate blogs and websites. “Experts” blab on and on about how analytics has changed sports forever. I don’t buy it. Why? Because when you look at who won and how it usually comes down to something basic that didn’t get done. A foundational aspect of winning that came up short. In the case of the lakers last night it was 2 things: rebounds (or lack of them) and missing free throws in the clutch. Simple.

1. Give credit where credit is due. The physicality and tenacity the Orlando Magic play at gave the Lakers fits all night long. Much whiny and moaning to the refs who let a rough, and consistent, game play out over the course of the evening. The Magic get up into you. They drape, they get handsy and we never adjusted or played up to it. Look no further than the rebound category to see where the threads of the win began to unravel. The Magic pulled down 12 more boards than we did (48-36) and grabbed 6 more offensive rebounds (15). While that led to only 15 second chance points it helped stymie or fastbreak and allowed Orlando to win the possession battle on the road.
2. Off game for the offense. The ball movement and flow last night was decidedly lacking. We average nearly 27 assists/game and last night, even though we got 21 dimes, the normal flow we’ve become accustomed to was AWOL. A lot of this was due to the physical pressure applied by Orlando. But it also had to do with guys like DLO passing up open shots in favor of relocating and then forcing up a bad shot, instead. The Lakers offense is predicated on player movement and when it’s flowing it works great. Too much standing around last night led to a stagnant flow and helped contribute to the loss.
3. Missing free throws. Look…it’s gonna happen and it happens to every team. There will always be a handful of games you look back on every season and say “should, woulda, coulda”. This and the Phoenix game top my list currently. Both were games where we had cont5rol and simply let it slip through our fingers. Missing 4 out of 6 free throws down the stretch, along with not forcing Wagner off the three point line, are the main culprits in this one. Wipe slate, move on.
4. Should have gone with Cam over DLO down the stretch. Called a big game for Russell last night…that is still MIA. Dude hasn’t scored 20 points in a game this season. I know he’s distributing the ball OK, had 6 dimes last night, but he’s a net negative defender and that’s not going to change. When he passes up open threes, like he did last night, it makes him playing really hard to justify. Cam was doing a better job than Reaves who inexplicably seemed to get matched up on Wagner a lot in the second half. When Wagner got hot and we finally went back to Reddish in the waning minutes it was too little too late. Bad decision by JJ on this one, I understand the desire to see DLO get on track but the west is to tight to let one guy beat us. Not sure why we didn’t put AD on him, either. Curious choices and some of that has to do with the switching scheme which my personal jury is still out on. It works when we’re physical like the Magic were but when you play willowy it opens up wide open threes and driving lanes.
5. Offense is not the problem. In a game where, even without good ball movement, you shoot 50.6% from the field and 41.9% from three while keeping the turnovers reasonable you ought to win. The free throws (65.4%) were a big part but the defense just isn’t rising to the occasion. We play good D in bursts but it doesn’t seem to be as much of a focus as it will eventually need to be. Our physicality comes and goes, we don’t rebound well, and our transition D continues to be a major weakness. If this doesn’t get addressed soon it will only become a larger issue.

While we’re still in the “too early to form a concrete opinion” stage of the season, there are some trends in the Lakers play we can identify and analyze. Ball movement, offensive flow: good. Defensive intensity and rebounding: mediocre, especially on the break where it gets downright bad. Let’s take a look at some of the ways the Lakers could maybe start to improve on the solid early-season foundation they’ve put down.

1. Getting buckets. As of this post the Lakers are the #4 ranked offense based on overall offensive rating. In the NBA, “offensive rating” refers to a statistic that measures how many points a team scores per 100 possessions, essentially representing their offensive efficiency over the course of a game; a higher offensive rating indicates a more potent offense. The shot profile is balanced, we’re #11 in Assist % (which is pretty solid considering we have 2 elite iso players in AD and LeBron), and we’re improving our assist to turnover ratio by the game (we currently sit at #5) which means we’re maximizing our possessions by not coughing it up but still using the pass effectively, and we’re not addicted to three point shooting nor are we treating it like a toxic asset. We’re #8 in points in the paint which we should be considering that our 2 best players rely on paint points. We’re #9 in scoring in transition. We’re right in my personal sweet spot for three point FGAs at 33.6 and improving on our accuracy from the beginning of the season at 37.4% (making 12.6). In short, when we lose, offense isn’t the problem.
2. Getting stops. This isn’t quite as rosy of a picture but the good thing is some of this is very fixable. Our net defensive rating (how many points we give up/100 possessions) is bad, we’re 25th in the league and that’s with AD playing at a high level. Most of that stat was based on the first iteration of the starting five which included D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves in the back court. I’d be curious to see what that number looks like with another 5-10 games of Cam Reddish starting in DLO’s place. Swapping Cam for DLO in the starting five has brought balance to both the bench and starting units, balance we sorely need if we want to get to at least middle of the pack defensively. Cam has been ultra solid on D and taken the open shots that come his way on offense without pressing. Early on, when we were a top 5 or so turnover team, we were giving up a lot more fastbreak points and points off of turnovers. We’ve cleaned up the points of TO’s…but we’re second to last in giving up points on the break. In some ways that’s a little more worrisome as it means teams are just running at us and we’re not adjusting very well off of makes or misses. The good thing is we can work on that as a team and get better on getting back. LeBron will not be a part of that effort and, based on his age and usage, this may be the biggest concern for the regular season. Come playoff time, when the game slows down, I expect this to matter a little less. Depending on matchups.
3. The Knecht Effect. After starting the first 8 or 9 games slowly DK4 has come on like gangbusters and is shooting lights out (last night was awesome against the Jazz). Inserting him into the starting 5 along with Cam has led to some of our best basketball and really opens up the door to a debate about if Rui should go back to starting once he’s available. I think the sample size is too small, it’s early in the season and DK hasn’t really been scouted, yet, so there’s still a lot of unknown factors but it’s certainly a conversation worth having. Starting DK (a rookie) would normally come with some defensive ability questions but, while he won’t be in any kind of NBA All Defense convos he can hold his own because he moves his feet rather than reaches. That in and of itself is huge. Add that a willingness to crash the glass at least as much as Rui does and you have a pretty nice problem for the coaches to unravel. I think that DK is probably the better shooter in that his release is quicker and he’s not shy about putting it up but both are efficient and you get a better iso/post player in Hachimura. Ideally a 2nd unit of Hachimura and DLO would be the way to go as that opens up a lot of options to run through both those guys whose overall skill sets are wasted a little bit as starters with our current roster composition. Both DLO and Rui can get their own shots in a variety of ways, strengths that augment the team more if Cam (or possibly Vando when he’s ready) and DK4 can serve as role-players in the starting five. The fact that Dalton has made this into a conversation is awesome.
4. The factor that affects everything and every team: injuries. With Wood, Hayes, Rui and Vando out one would expect the lakers to be at a disadvantage. Instead we’ve gone on a 6 game winning streak since our disastrous road trip. Getting those guys back is important and will ultimately make the Lakers better. Since they’re out it’s opened the door for more playing time and a starting spot for Cam and DK4 which has been a revelation on both ends of the court for the reasons above and also opened up some PT for Koloko. I like his energy and he competes well but there’s no denying this guy is both raw and rusty. I don’t need him to shoot threes, either, get good at the three things you need to be good at: rim protection, rebounding and screening. Do those well and you open a lot of doors for the team and us to feel more confident about potentially trading Hayes at some point. Other than that it’s been nice to see LBJ playing in every game so far and to see AD managing his five falls/game and eye injury well.
5. Wish the Emirates Cup was a little later in the season. We’re undefeated in Cup games dating back to it’s inception. Need more of ’em lol.

The Lakers are a team forever on, at a minimum, low heat. Even the dudes who wipe the sweat off the court are under a microscope when you’re a part of the Lakers organization. So the heat will only get hotter for this team as they come home after a fairly disastrous road trip. All but gone are the good vibes from the 3-0 start and replacing them are injury concerns and mediocre effort from guys we expect more out of. The Lakers trudge home 4-4, 10th in the west, and with a lot more questions than answers.

1. Laker defense blows. At 28th in the NBA with a 118.8 defensive rating the only way to describe the Lakers defense is dreadful. That’s a whole 4 points worse than we finished last season under Coach Ham. With the same team one would expect at least some form of continuity on that end but that doesn’t seem to be the case. We’re not getting back, we played physically for all of 3 games, and then just started letting the other team get into the paint and bully us on the glass. Our defensive rebounding has taken a 3.7% step back, as well. Whatever the coaches are trying to do isn’t working and I don’t think a trade or Vando coming back is enough. The team needs to either fix the physicality issue or change it’s coverage schemes because the blueprint to beat us is pretty simple: play fast. We’re in the bottom five for most measurable defensive metrics. That’s just not anywhere near good enough.
2. The offense looks solid through 8 games and I expect it to improve slightly in efficiency. This isn’t the area where the lakers are struggling. Our offense is currently the 8th best. Continuity on this end hasn’t been a huge problem, we’re scoring smart and we’re scoring well. We just can’t get a stop anymore. The only area that could stand to get cleaned up a little are the turnovers where we’re probably trying to force things too much or short cut the play in favor of a riskier cross court pass.
3. Leave Knecht on the bench. I knew as soon as I saw Rui out this would pave the way for a poor decision: starting Dalton Knecht. The dude is playing pretty well off the bench and has a nice role he’s already carved out. Give him the time to get better at that and start a guy like Cam to infuse the starting lineup with the correct kind of juice. Cam played really well in his minutes and happens to be playing for his NBA life. He was a spark plug for us last season and Coach Reddick has been pining for one of those energy guys while simultaneously ignoring the one he has that’s healthy and ready to play.
4. Enough with this 9 man rotation. Both the coaches and the players need more time. You’re not doing yourself a single favor by essentially benching 1/5th of your roster so you can play who you think are the 9 best. You’re 4-4 with no clear path back to consistently winning, the first month of the regular season is glorified training camp where the games matter, this is still an apropos time to be discovering combinations that work and a rotation doesn’t have to be set in November. It needs to have an idea of what it is by 2025, it needs to be comfortable with one another by January and if it’s not working it needs to be changed as best it can via trade in February. Lastly, there are 4…maybe 5…total players who deserve to be in a 9 man rotation. The rest are role players so use this time now to figure out which ones augment those intelligent 2 man pairings based off LeBron/Reaves and AD/DLO.
5. Letting the wrong players leave. Under Rob Pelinka, and numerous coaches, we’ve let the wrong players leave the organization far too often. I’m not talking about how we draft, although prior to Knecht that, too, left a lot to be desired, but rather what we do with the players we actually have and why we choose to let some of them walk for no reason. Alex Caruso left so we could keep THT who has almost bottomed out of the league while Caruso plays a meaningful role in OKC. Instead of Scottie Pippen Jr. we somehow still have Maxwell Lewis on the roster and after watching Scottie dissect us on defense it’s hard for me to understand why. The kid just plays hard and plays right. What does Lewis even do well in the G League? This disturbing trend has resulted in a severe talent drain of affordable players that a team like the Lakers can’t afford to keep getting wrong.

Got another one tomorrow on my birthday. Which seems to always get ruined by an election or a bad Lakers game. The shitty election already happened so here’s hoping at least the Lakers win against the injury ravaged 76ers… Yay 50.

Nothing to learn from this other than how to move on from a bad loss. The Phoenix game, even though we coughed up a late lead, felt competitive. This game never did as the Cavs got what they wanted, when they wanted, and how they wanted it. There was not much resistance offered from the Lakers even though we got down big early, again, and had shown that steady approach to coming back works. Whether it’s some guys still finding their legs, the early and lengthy road trip or just that the Cavs are that much better we never really were in this game after the first few minutes.

1. The Lakers defense ain’t great. We’re giving up 50.8 points in the paint per game so far. That’s, in part, being fueled by our league worst transition defense which gives up 21.2 ppg (the only team in the Association to give up more than 20). Our transition defense is non-existent. In specific, switching everything (or 1-4 when AD’s man happens to be in the paint) every time is both predictable and easily exploitable, as we’ve now seen with our own eyes against quality opponents. The seams it creates are letting guys get to the rim and score. That leads to softer switches that offer more room and then guys shoot the three over us. The physicality we saw in the first 3 games didn’t make the road trip, as can be seen by the vast free throw disparity last night in which Cleveland shot well from everywhere (57.7% overall, 41.5% from three) while only getting to the line 8 times compared to our 33. When you win the free throw battle by that much, one generally expects a W. If we stick with switching 1-4 we need to stay attached better to both players (screener and ball handler) and I’ll take an uptick in fouls called if that’s what it takes. Laying back off the screens like a bunch of softies is just creating quality shots for the other team and isn’t working at all. This was, and remains, my biggest concern with Reddick as a head coach, and so I’m curious to see what changes. If anything does.
2. Lakers back court needs to be better. Mainly DLo but Reaves needs to be in attack mode at all times, too. Reaves should be in the conversation of “whose team” this is almost as much as AD because he’s more of an initiator of the offense. Shooting the ball a measly 6 (Reaves) and 7 (Russell) times, respectively, means there isn’t enough pressure being applied; although in D’Angelo’s case he did get to the line 7 times when his 3 ball wasn’t (still) falling. There’s not a great option to turn to after those 2 guys so they need to get it done night in and night out a lot better and consistently than they’ve done so far. They look good in wins, bad in losses and as they go so, too, does the Lakers fortunes.
3. Bronny got his first NBA hoop. Yay.
4. The Lakers bench needs to do more. Like…a lot more. The Net Rating for the Lakers bench is -4.7 and would be a lot worse without Dalton Knecht. This difference isn’t because they’re letting the other team score at will, the Lakers bench has the 6th best defensive rating in the league. We’re middle of the pack in scoring the rock but lead the league in pace (the bench, not the team overall). It may be worth exploring the idea of slowing it down a bit since we’re killing it in transition, anyhow. At any rate our myopic scoring output is a huge issue as we move further into the season. I expect Knecht to hit the rookie wall at some point (they all do) and other than him nobody is scoring effectively yet. Vando getting minutes over Christie and Hayes could help alleviate that but that isn’t the current reality. Somebody besides Knecht needs to contribute and if you move him to the starting 5 I worry the bench will fall utterly off a cliff.
5. Good news! It’s still early and the road trip is still salvageable. Win in Toronto. That needs to be the focus. Don’t worry about anything else but executing and getting the W in Canada and then focus on Detroit followed by voting (VOTE!) and then Memphis. Just focus on taking care of the business in front of you. All the history is out of the way now, the team has shown it’s good enough to compete at a high level when fully engaged on a physical level, so make that the priority. If you’re competing at a high level, playing as hard and focused as you can, then good things usually generate themselves. Don’t let the losing define the road trip or when you come back it’ll be harder to find that home mojo, again, and no team worth it’s salt is only good at home. Need to be able to win on the road and win consistently. You also don’t want to tumble down the standings early, we’ve all seen how that affects the late season race to getting favorable playoff placement and it’s not fun. We’re still a top 6 team, just need to go out and play lie one, again.