While it will be impossible for the Lakers to clear enough cap space to offer Giannis Antetokounmpo a maximum contract in free agency next offseason, there is a path to make an Anthony Davis style midseason trade for Giannis.
The problem with pursuing Giannis in free agency is the Lakers already have two superstars making 65% of the cap and adding him would mean 95% for three players and the 5% left is not enough money to field a legal team. Teams with one max player like Miami could add Antetokounmpo via free agency but not a team like the Lakers with two max players, not without one or more of the max players accepting a 10-20% pay cut to build a Big Three.
The solution for the Lakers to acquire Giannis Antetokounmpo is to trade for him and then use his Bird rights to go over the cap to sign him to a max contract. Frankly, it’s the only way the Lakers can legally create a Big Three. It’s also the only way to acquire Giannis without having to jettison the entire championship roster they’ve spent the last two years assembling. It’s also why Giannis should want to be traded rather than signed as a free agent.
Giannis has one year left on his contract with the Milwaukee Bucks with annual pay of $27,528,088. If he’s not signed a supermax extension with the Bucks before the season starts, he’ll be a major target at the trade deadline. Were Giannis to demand to be traded to the Lakers ala Anthony Davis, L.A. could end up making the best offer considering other contenders might not be willing to bid more for what might end up being a half season rental.
That means an offer from the Lakers of Dennis Schroder and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, whose salaries total $29,850,000 might be the best trade offer the Milwaukee Bucks receive for superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo. The key to making this strategy actually work is the Lakers showing Giannis through their play that they’re the not only best destination for him to win multiple championships but also the team that’s the best fit for him.
Once the Lakers trade for Antetokounmpo, they would then own his Bird rights and would be able, after the end of the season, to go over the salary cap and offer Giannis a new max contract starting at $39,200,000 per year. The Lakers would be deep in the luxury tax with total salaries approaching $160,000,000 but, unlike free agency scenarios where teams were left with only superstars, they would still have their complete championship roster.
The difference between Giannis joining a fully built out championship team via trade versus signing with a contending team with a stipped down roster via free agency becomes a major selling point for him demanding a trade. Any team that’s pared their roster to create $39 million in cap space to sign Giannis Antetokounmpo is realistically going to be another Milwaukee Bucks team that’s going to be relying heavily upon him to win it all.
Demanding a trade is the answer and the challenge is convincing Giannis joining a Lakers championship team with LeBron and AD via trade is better than joining an unproven Miami Heat team without a superstar via trade. That’s where the question of fit becomes important because there’s no team other than the Lakers who have two championship tested superstars to help Giannis carry the load and a proven deep and talented supporting cast.
Of course, the ‘trade and then use Bird rights to max’ blueprint is not limited to Giannis or the Lakers. It’s a strategy every team with two superstars, like the Clippers, Warriors, and Nets, will also be looking for a chance to deploy. That’s why all of the major contenders looking to acquire Antetokounmpo will be watching closely as Giannis will have until the day before the 2021 season to accept or decline the supermax offer from the Milwaukee Bucks.
If Giannis accepts the Bucks’ supermax offer, the focus will then switch to other superstars slated to become free agents next offseason, including Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Jrue Holiday, Rudy Gobert, and Victor Oladipo. Should Giannis decline the offer, the Bucks will need a breakout start to the season or face heavy pressure at the midseason deadline to trade Giannis to prevent losing him for nothing in free agency at the end of the year.
While there’s always the chance the Bucks can work out a sign-and-trade deal for Giannis if they wait until he becomes a free agent next offseason, that’s too great a risk to take as losing him for nothing would be a disaster. Bottom line, Milwaukee has to hope adding Jrue Holiday and other pieces was enough to convince Giannis to sign the supermax. Otherwise, the future of their franchise could be on the line come the midseason trade deadline.
Meanwhile, Rob Pelinka has positioned the Los Angeles Lakers with a collection of valuable assets to pull off a mega midseason deal to land a third max superstar to complement LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Whether Giannis is the main target or not, the Lakers will be primed and ready to deploy their repertoire of trade assets to land whatever available superstar they think is the best fit to help them win the short and long term.
As those who’ve following me know, I’ve never been a fan of pursuing Giannis because I think the Lakers third superstar needs to be a guard, especially to pair with AD once LeBron retires. Right now, we’re find because LeBron plays point guard.
I do think Giannis is unique talent, a unicorn if you will, so I can understand the obsession of chasing him. It could obviously work with him playing the five and AD the four or vice versa but it would create pressure to replace LeBron with a guard when he retires but that’s what you would expect from the Lakers.
The catalyst making Giannis to the Lakers more likely is winning, In fact, the Lakers best argument is dominating so that every other team looks like the Bucks when Giannis thinks about leaving. The lure is replacing LeBron James and playing with Anthony Davis, who’s the perfect front court mate for him. That’s the Lakers’ pitch in a nutshell: replace LeBron and play with AD.
Will it happen? The better the Lakers become and the more they win, the more likely it is to happen. Domination will make it happen. Giannis doesn’t have the self confidence Kawhi did with his two rings to spurn the opportunity to play with LeBron. In fact, right now and until he develops a shot, he needs LeBron and AD to win. So it’s possible but not via free agency. Only via a trade. Lakers get off to a roaring start and Bucks falter and we might see Giannis suddenly demand a trade to the Lakers.
Post from Jamie that somehow got deleted:
“Great post Tom, as we spoke about on the podcast this is literally the only rational way GA can become a Laker and this is the season for it to happen, should it come down to him demanding a trade. Not sure that’s in his DNA but anything is possible, especially if the Bucks vastly under-perform out of the gate.
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Thanks, Jamie. Probably a long shot that Giannis would demand a trade to the Lakers but I do think we would be his best opportunity if he wants to win. Unlike Kawhi, he hasn’t shown he can take a team all the way by himself and entering his prime, what better option than replacing LeBron and playing with AD going forward. Of course, imaging the negative feedback if Giannis pulled an AD?
Personally, I would prefer we landed a guard as the third superstar to go with AD rather than a forward although Giannis as a center on the Lakers with AD and LeBron at the 4 and 3 would be an unstoppable juggernaut. Trade and then max with Bird rights is the way for the Laker to go. Good to see Rob realizing that and giving KCP three years and now Gasol two years.
If G wants to be a Laker, Rob will figure it out. : )
More signs that the limited cap increases as a result of the coronavirus pandemic have killed team’s plans to save cap space to chase Giannis. Even teams without a legitimate superstar like the Heat have decided signing Giannis for $39 million in free agency is not a viable plan. Like the Lakers, they’re betting now on the trade or sign-and-trade route.
The Miami Heat just decided they could not afford to hold off on Bam Adebayo’s extension to keep cap space open for Giannis Antetokounmpo. Instead they have opted to change strategy and extend Bam to keep him happy and focus on trying to trade or sign-and-trade for Giannis rather than trying to clear cap space for him. The pandemic limiting cap increases has changed the landscape for adding superstars.