Everybody knows Daryl Morey, Mike D’Antoni, and the Houston Rockets went all-in on analytics-driven small ball with five players under 6′ 7″ with layups, free throws, and 3-point shots being their blueprint for scoring.
Tuesday night, the Los Angeles Lakers took the Morey and D’Antoni Rockets to school and put on an elite clinic on how to shut down the three scoring keys Houston’s small ball offense relies upon to destroy opposing defenses. After a first half shootout, the Lakers doubled and forced Harden to give up the ball, hounded and chased Houston’s shooters off the 3-point line, and protected the rim without fouling with a swarm of mobile shot blockers.
The result was a second half where the Lakers’ defense shut down the small ball Rockets’ offense, holding them to just 38 points on 13 for 37 from the field (35.1%), 6 of 16 from deep (37.5%), and 6 of 6 from the line (100%). This was against a Houston team that boasted the third best second half offense in the NBA during the regular season, averaging 56.8 points while taking 44.5 shots from the field, 23.3 three-pointers, and 13.2 free throws.
The usual defensive strategy in the NBA is to take away what a team does best and force them to do what they don’t do best. In the second half, Frank Vogel’s strategy was to take away everything the Rockets are built to do. They limited Houston to just 16 3-point attempts versus their average of 23. They allowed them to make just 1 of 11 on layups and blocked 5 of them. And they defended without fouling allowing the Rockets only 6 free throws.
It will be fun to see what changes D’Antoni will make to counter the moves Frank Vogel’s made to shut down Houston’s offense in what is a must win game. These are the chess games where great coaching comes into play. So far Mike D’Antoni won the first game and Frank Vogel has come back to win the last two games. Morey’s and D’Antoni’s future with the Rockets may be on the line tonight so look for new winkles tonight against the Lakers.
If the Lakers win, this series is all but over. If the Rockets win, then all bets are off and we’re likely to see a Game 7. I still have the Lakers in 5 but we’re going to need big games from Playoff LeBron and Playoff Rondo to do it.
This is the pivotal game for Daryl Morey, Mike D’Antoni, and the Houston Rockets. They can’t go down 1-3. Most tie this series tonight. They’re going to come out full of fire and Lakers need to be ready, which means they need to start Markieff Morris like they did the second half of Game 3.
If Westbrook is not effective early, I think D’Antoni will bench him and surround James with 3-point shooters. They’re losing the Westbrook with or without Harden minutes and are desperate. Lakers need to stay with the shooters in the corners and not overhelp. Rockets may struggle to shoot over 40% from deep for a third game in a row, in which case this could be a blowout
I would love to see Frank start Markieff at the five tonight. He had the best defensive rating of all Lakers players in Game 3 and gives us a lineup that makes it difficult for opposing defenses to pack the paint against LeBron and AD. But even if Vogel starts McGee, his minutes have been cut so much whether or not he starts has become irrelevant.
I also think Morris starting could be the smart move against the Clippers in the next round Like the Rockets, the Clippers want the Lakers to play big because it makes it easier for them to clog the lane against LeBron and AD. Start Morris, spread the floor with 5-out sets, and do to the Clippers exactly what we have been doing to the Rockets. Don’t post AD. Post LeBron. He would kill Zubac or Harrell.
That’s the next evolution I want to see from Frank Vogel, understanding that the changes he’s deployed against the Rockets are ironicaly exactly what we should be doing when we face the Clippers. Double Kawhi, shut down their threes, force them to drive and take 2’s. Stifle and confuse them defensively with mixes of zones and traps. Play a smaller lineup that’s bigger then them but force them to spread the floor. The blueprint for the Rockets is actually the blueprint to win the championship.