In less than one month, the Los Angeles Lakers have gone from having early season doubts AD would ever take the torch from LeBron James to experiencing the 10-game transformation that signaled his ‘Arrival.’
After struggling with injuries and missed games the past two seasons, Anthony Davis put the Lakers on his shoulders after a rough 2–10 start and has led them to a 3-game road win streak and an 8–2 record in last 10.
During this 10-game stretch, the Lakers have posted the 4th best offensive rating, 8th best defensive rating, and 4th best net rating in the league. They also ranked 2nd in FG%, 8th in 3P%, and 8th in FT% the last 10 games.
Anthony Davis’ ‘Arrival’ changes everything for the Lakers and complicates the important looming decisions by ownership and management regarding trading Russell Westbrook and their two available first round draft picks.
The Lakers’ front office was already sharply divided as to whether to invest their two picks to give this roster a shot at a ring or save the picks for next summer. The ‘Arrival’ of Anthony Davis ironically affects both arguments.
Let’s examine how Anthony Davis’ ‘Arrival’ the last 10 games as the next face of the franchise changes everything with respect to the Lakers’ needs, trading Russell Westbrook, and Trading their two first round draft picks.
1. Does AD’s ‘Arrival’ Change the Lakers Needs?
Anthony Davis’ ‘Arrival’ should end the perennial arguments about whether he’s better as a center or a power forward. If AD continues to play like the last 10 games, he will most likely win MVP and DPOY awards as a center.
The Lakers have spent the last three seasons futilely searching for a starting center to play alongside Anthony Davis, both to allow him to play his preferred power forward position and to protect him from physicality.
I’ve long supported trading for Myles Turner to play alongside AD but this Shaquille O’Neal version of Anthony Davis is even better than Bubble AD. It’s time for the Lakers to accept Anthony Davis is now their starting center.
With Davis at center, James at power forward, Walker at shooting guard, and Schröder acceptable at point guard, the Lakers greatest need now becomes a starting small forward or 3&D wing to defend bigger scorers.
The Lakers need to end those three guard lineups with nobody over 6′ 5″. Fortunately, 3&D candidates for that position include Bojan Bogdanovic, Jae Crowder, Lauri Markkanen, O.G. Anunoby, and Cam Reddish.
The Lakers first move should be to trade Patrick Beverley, Kendrick Nunn, Damian Jones, and a protected first round pick for one of the above wings to give their starting lineup more size, especially at small forward position.
The Lakers also need better front court backups. Bryant, Gabriel, and Brown, Jr would be the backup center, power forward, and small forward. Lakers’ top bench priority should be a backup center like Kelly Olynyk.
Anthony Davis’ ‘Arrival’ has changed what the Lakers need in terms of roster upgrades. Top two priorities are landing a starting 3&D small forward and backup center who can stretch the floor and protect the rim
2. Does AD’s ‘Arrival’ Change Russell Westbrook trade?
With Anthony Davis playing like the best player in the world and the Lakers looking like a legitimate championship contenders, there’s a path emerging where the Lakers keep Russell Westbrook and allow his contract to expire.
The benefits of not trading Westbrook include the creation of $35 million in cap space that could be used to sign free agents this summer assuming they don’t trade for any long-term contracts and keeping one or both draft picks.
Ironically, another benefit of not trading Westbrook is still being able to benefit from his excellent play off the bench. Replacing the volume assists Russ gives AD is one of the major challenges of trading for Westbrook.
Unfortunately, other than trading Russ and picks, the only other Lakers’ package that has value is Beverley, Nunn, Jones, and a first round pick, which could bring back player(s) who earn $20 million per year combined.
Theoretically, the Lakers could trade for a player like Bogdanovic to fill out their starting lineup of Schroder, Walker, Bogdanovic, James, and Davis and have a solid bench of Westbrook, Reaves, Brown, Gabriel, and Bryant.
If the Lakers can trade Beverley, Nunn, Jones, and a pick for a Bogdanovic, they might have enough with the Shaquille O’Neal version of Anthony Davis and a healthy and rested LeBron James to win it all while keeping Russ.
That’s an argument we should expect the Buss Brothers to make as we approach December 15th and Rob Pelinka and the front office start to execute their key stretch drive moves to upgrade the Lakers’ roster.
It makes sense for the Lakers to execute a trade for a starting small forward on December 15, which would still give them a chance to see how the team plays and reconsider trading Westbrook if the need and opportunity arise.
3. Does AD’s ‘Arrival’ Change Lakers Trading Picks?
Anthony Davis playing like the ‘best player in the world’ has to ease any concern the Lakers’ front office may have had that LeBron James and Anthony Davis were still capable of winning the NBA championship.
It should also give the Lakers confidence that the player they gambled would become the heir apparent to LeBron James has finally shown that he is up for that challenge and is right now taking the torch from the King.
That should theoretically give the Lakers confidence to go all-in to win the NBA championship this season both to get LeBron James another ring before he retires and to prevent the Boston Celtics from winning #18.
The thing about a Russell Westbrook trade is it could bring back $47 million in combined salary vs the $20 million the Beverley, Nunn, and pick trade could bring back. That’s basically three rather than one rotation player.
Ideally, the Lakers need a starting small forward and a backup center, power forward, and small forward. The only logical way they can acquire those players is to trade Westbrook as well as Beverley, Nunn, and Jones.
After trading for Bogdanovic, the Lakers should trade Russell Westbrook and one unprotected first round pick to the Utah Jazz for Jordan Clarkson, Malik Beasley, and Kelly Olynyk to give them needed size and shooting.
That 3-player Westbrook trade would give them desperately needed bench depth and the roster versatility needed to deal with the long regular season and normal injuries and play jumbo big or super small in the playoffs.
Anthony Davis’ ‘Arrival’ changes everything for the Lakers and gives them a positive upside that’s clearly worth the team investing both first round draft picks to beat the Boston Celtics and win their 18th NBA championship.
The one big change from my long standing position is that I no longer want to trade for Myles Turner. While I think they could work well together, I just don’t want to disturb what we’re seeing from Anthony Davis. The Shaquille O’Neal version of AD we’ve seen the last 10 games is too good to mess with changing. Get me Bojan or Lauri or OG so AD can only play center. Need to get Olynyk to backup AD as Thomas Bryant is not good enough.
Even in my wildest hopes, I didn’t expect Anthony Davis to break out like he has in the last 10 games. It’s really a miracle for the Lakers and hopefully will convince the front office to go all-in on trading to upgrade roster so we can build a powerhouse around AD and LeBron and not just adding a couple of players.
“in my wildest dreams” Moody Blues
Of course story. Saw them in Evansville, In. years back. Stopped at the Hotel I thought they would stay. Ask the checker if they were staying there. “No” About a minute later here they came, lol Got Justin Hayward sig on an LP. I told as leaving, “Oh, he’s a Moody Blue,” lol!
“With Anthony Davis playing like the best player in the world and the Lakers looking like a legitimate championship contenders, there’s a path emerging where the Lakers keep Russell Westbrook and allow his contract to expire.”
Uh…that path has fully emerged and is currently the one being trod by the Lakers. Been that way for some time, too. Some of us just can’t see the trees from the forest because of their obsession with trades. I’m going to ignore your Russ trade scenario because it ain’t gonna happen. Down to 80/20 against on my end.
Anyhow, glad to see my “negative” and “absurd” and “insane” opinions are gaining some traction amongst the mentally fit and stable. For a second I thought I might be losing my mind.|
Honestly, I can still see a path where Turner is the one they trade for simply to add defense and shooting. Of the players you mentioned none of them are the defender that Turner is. It’s his defense that has me wanting him in a Laker uniform and he could play the 4 or the 5. It doesn’t matter what the letters say after his name on the box score, it just matters how he affects the game. Turner and OGA would top my list if it was one of pure imagination.
Still, if Indy holds true to form they won’t trade Turner unless they’re out of the playoff hunt, if at all. No need to buy him out, they can sign him to the best deal out there if they think he’s worth it (or just for the purposes of a trade on down the line) and so on. Or let him expire without the Russ-sized buyout. No need to get hung up on one guy in our case, though.
From your list Cam Reddish tops mine. Feels like he’s in LW4 territory in that he just needs the right scenario to bust out and that ain’t New York which will likely be the last coaching stop for Tommy T. I doubt LM is available and even if he were Ainge will get better than the players he just shipped out and a pick or 2 5 years out. Valuable though they may (or may not) be.
Toronto functions like Indy does: they compete until it’s futile. Hard for me to see them trade OGA before such time and, again, there will almost certainly be better offers on the table than ours. What’s our best offer? Two small guards who struggle to score and picks 5 and/or 7 years out? If we pull that trade off for OGA Rob should win executive of the year.
Better to set our sights on “Reasonable” as opposed to “Highly Unlikely”. Kelly-O is reasonable and could be traded for PatBev straight up. Would Ainge do it without a FRP from us is the real question. Somehow I kind of doubt it since it’s likely they would turn around and just buy Patrick out. That kind of transaction usually costs the team getting the best guy a draft pick. That’s a lot for us to give up for a backup center.
Not sure where the Thomas Bryant hate comes from, still. As the backup I think he would actually compare well against an Olynyk kind of player. Rough comp:
TB: 12.9 mpg, 4.5 FGA, 72% FGP, 4.4 TRB, .6 BPG 8.0 ppg (bench)
KO: 28.5 mpg, 8 FGA, 56$ FGP, 5 TRB, .7 BPG, 13 ppg (starts now)
Yes…I know Kelly shoots the three and, on Utah where he’s featured and gets big minutes, shoots it well. Take 16 minutes away from Olynyk and will you get the same offensive production and even less rebounding? Take 3 shots away and where are those coming from? Some from three because that’s how coach Ham uses his big men: as screen and rollers and rebounders.
For the price and losing PatBev (well his contract anyway…) for a position I don’t really consider a weakness that’s not a great trade. I’d rather push our chips in towards OGA and use both Nunn and PB, along with at least 1 FRP, and get the best defender on your list. Now, of course, there is a negative to getting a guy like that as it will eat into LW4s minutes, most likely. Also OGA is under contract until the middle of the decade (POO for 24-25) but I think he’s a player you could easily move, should one choose to, without a pick. You can trade OGA to anyone with cap space and use that TPE to retain LW4 if that’s what the choice boils down to this summer.
Anyway, the only thing I see hampering a lot of these trade scenarios are the same ones I saw last season and over the summer: the Lakers REALLY want to keep those 2 FRPs. They REALLY do not want to take on extra salary beyond this season. They have REALLY limited tools to work with. Oh and Rob’s history of no in-season trades. Every win bulks that one up bigger and bigger.
Cam Reddish feels gettable against that backdrop. So, too, does Jae Crowder who also comes with vet savvy and playoff experience. Phoenix will eventually move off their silly “we need a really good player for Jae!” stance and move towards a “OK, we need to get SOMETHING for this guy” and if PatBev and Russ can become friends I’d love to see CP3 and PatBev on the same team!
I say go for Cam: it only costs you Nunn and I wouldn’t give away more than Chicago’s second rounder. No FRP for him, he’s walking out of NY this summer, guaranteed. They get a serviceable player now and a cheap one this summer. That’s a win for them, at this point.
that’s an awful lot of tldr of an I told you so
Lol, the main reason I never did Twitter was the character limit. Also I try to take the trade proposals seriously.seriously-ish…
Nice post Tom, you expanded my post. You’re welcome:) I’m glad that you have turned your attention to small forwards, because that’s what we lack. Anything will Utah using PatBev is off the table. I believe they are not allowed to bring a player back that they traded for a year. I don’t see Cam coming either. The Knicks are in the same boat as the Lakers with too many small guards. They are shopping a few already. As you know OG is my favorite here. His 17 mil contract is reasonable and we would have enough space to keep Lonnie. One guy you didn’t mention is Obre. With the Hornets falling he maybe expendable. I would also look in to Kuz. He will definitely opt out of his 13 mil contract. If the Wizards do not think they can keep him they may trade him. I think he enjoyed being a a Laker. If he told other teams he won’t resign with them, perhaps they would deal with the Lakers. But if we keep Westbrook, which I feel they probably will, we will really only be able to make one move. Not sure if it will materialize but hopefully it will. I do believe they will have to spend a pick but perhaps with protections.
Thanks, Michael. After watching the last two games, I don’t want to risk changing anything in how AD is playing right now. I worry that adding a starting center could wreck what we have. Safest path to me is to get a 3&D starting quality small forward with size. As you stressed, it’s a key need to compete for a championship. No more 6′ 5″ wing defenders.
I just hope Pelinka and the front office don’t just trade Bev/Nunn/Jones/Pick for a bigger wing and then think that’s all they need. I still believe we should get a true quality point guard as we’re going to miss Russ more than we think. The problem is we cannot improve the team enough to win a ring w/o trading him.
Between AD’s ‘Arrival’ and Ham’s ability to get Russ off the bench to work, the Lakers have had two stunning internal developments that probably nobody expected. In the NBA, anything is possible and I guess this could be an example of the benefit of patience and waiting. Can Rob finally finish the job and complete this roster? That’s now the big question.
We still need a quality backup center because Jones and Bryant aren’t the answer. We also need better backups are small and power forward. Can’t get everything we need but we can’t just stop with Bev/Nunn/Pick for 1 player.
That’s because Jamie enjoys blowing his horn and telling you ‘I told you so’ even when the result is known for sure.
Just observating and opinionating. Call it like I see it, doesn’t matter what I’d like to see happening. I’m not the one getting paid big money to make these decisions and annoy you. I’m just the lowest hanging fruit on the Obvious Tree.
I still do not think the Lakers will keep Westbrook for the following reasons:
1. You cannot trust him to close games or win in the playoffs.
2. You cannot fix the size and shooting problems w/o trading him.
3. If you let his contract expire, you have no tradeable contracts.
1) But they do and they are.
2) Kinda true, there are other contracts that can be traded you’re just uber focused on a grand-slam, home-run trade fixing the Laker World which is highly un,ikely.
3) Untrue. You will sign some combination of players who will be eligible to be traded by 12/15 of the following season. They won’t roll into next season like OKC, $20 mil under the cap and wondering.
With Russ’s cap space from his expiring deal it allows you to:
1) re-sign Austin Reaves (yes or no?)
2) re-sign Lonnie Walker 4 (yes or no?)
3) re-sign Patrick Beverley (yes or no?)
4) re-sign Kendrick Nunn (yes or no?)
5) re-sign Russell Westbrook (yes or no?)
Added to a non-current roster MLE signing. Or let them all walk and pursue a player for around $35 million.
For me?
1) yes
2) yes
3) no and I hope he gets traded
4) ditto as 3
5) I think the Lakers missed this window, I thought he would be traded this summer for an overpay. I was wrong and admitted such fairly quickly when they started making it obvious by their self-imposed deadlines and adding the 2 more Buss kids to the brain trust and so on and so forth. In the end I do think they just let Russ expire, build off some of the core above, and look to add another player or two with some of that cap space.
I will be surprised if we trade Russ at this point. Especially after he’s done all that has been asked of him and we’re playing well. if the playing well part changes or injuries knock out LBJ or AD that equation could change very quickly, depending on timing and our position in the standings and if said hypothetical injuries are season-ending, or close to it.
The question will soon become this: what is Russ worth on the open market vs. his worth to the Lakers? What will the Lakers decide to do? Of course the answer to that lies in the future, when we have a clearer understanding of both what this team is capable of and how Russ impacts that positively or negatively in his current role. If they think Westbrook works off the bench and Russ is willing to come back for John Wall money…? I think they keep him.
Just my two bits, which I guess are just super obvious and people should listen a lot more and stuff lol.