Kyle Kuzma is the Los Angeles Lakers’ version of the American TV series Survivor, the one player everybody thought for sure would end up being traded this offseason but somehow is miraculously still on the roster.
Since we know he had been included in trade offers for Jrue Holiday and Bogdan Bogdanovic, Kuzma’s ultimate survival was not due to his having been declared touchable by the Lakers’ front office but simple serendipity. For some reason, the basketball gods seem to be determined to give Kyle one last opportunity to live up to the promising glimpses of potential that have tantalized the Lakers during his three years in purple and gold.
After Kuzma’s mediocre 2019-20 season and playoffs and Rob Pelinka’s spectacular upgrade of the Lakers’ roster this offseason, Twitter has now declared Kyle Kuzma to be just the 10th best player on the team’s roster. Unless you have forgotten, this is the same Kyle Kuzma whom LeBron James pronounced just three short months ago needed to be the third best player on the team if the Lakers were going to win their 17th championship.
So why is third year player Kyle Kuzma so disrespected and written off at this point by so many Lakers fans and basketball analysts? His coaches will tell you he’s matured as a player, is a better defender, and shares the ball. Kyle’s teammates like and respect him and he’s no longer the unrepentant gunner he once was when he was younger. As a matter of fact, he does everything the Lakers want him to do except shoot efficiently from three.
But what if Kyle Kuzma could fix his broken shot? While it was a small sample size, Kuz shot a team best 44.4% in the 8 regular season games the Lakers played in the bubble after having 4 months off to work on his shot. Unfortunately, Kyle struggled in the playoffs and reverted to shooting just 31.3% as his minutes dropped from 28.0 to 23.0 per game and his improved shot selection from in the bubble disappeared as he kept hoisting shots.
Imagine how differently the basketball world would view Kzma if he could suddenly start shooting 38% from deep? Pundits might have been talking about him as the next great young 3&D player to emerge as a big name star. Had Kuzma shot 38% from three and played 30 rather than 25 minutes per game this season, he would have averaged 16.4 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 1.6 assists per game, better stats for the season than Bogdan Bogdanovic.
Considering the form and mechanics of his shot, Kuzma clearly should be a better 3-point shooter and it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see a major improvement in his long range shot selection and percentage this season. Given another chance to live up to the hype created his rookie year when he was considered to be the steal of the draft as the 27th pick, Kyle may finally put it all together and become the budding star the Lakers envisioned.
Achieving that goal might not only dramatically transform Kuz’s career but also open the door for the Lakers to give him the rookie extension and opportunity to be a starter he’s been fighting to get the last two seasons. Since James and Davis are going to start at the three and four, Kuzma is going to have to show he can play the two to earn a future starting role on the Lakers, which is going to be a challenge considering the competition.
In the NBA, the positions you can defend are the positions you can play and Kyle Kuzma’s shown promise as a long wing defender who can guard elite wing scorers like Harden and Leonard who are too big for KCP and Caruso. While it’s a long shot, the opportunity is there for Kuzma if he can continue to grow as a wing defender, improve his shot selection and overall game, and somehow fix his broken 3-point shot and start shooting 38% from deep.
Even if a breakout season doesn’t win Kuzma a starting role and extension on the Lakers, it will open doors for a major role on another team and a chance to emerge from the cocoon he’s been trapped in for the last 2 years.
So how realistic is it to believe Kyle Kuzma can improve his 3-point shooting? To me, improving shooting percentage from deep is partly physical and partly mental. You can immediately tell that some players are just never going to be good 3-point shooters because they don’t have the ability to shoot. Yet, a few of them can develop the ability to shoot the 3 despite never being good jump shooters. Often, they do it with set shots. Magic Johnson and Jason Kidd are two excellent examples. So there’s always hope.
With Kuzma, I think the problem is mental. He has a nice stroke but needs a lot more repetition to get the muscle memory so the shot mechanics stay true all the time. And he needs to figure out where his shots should come from. He started doing that this year in the bubble, increasing his corner threes and reducing his above the break threes. Then he abandoned that in the playoffs when his minutes went down and reverted to shooting lower percentage shots. He needs to work with somebody like Lethal Shooter. There was a reference on Twitter by Chris that he might be joining the Laker. He’s the kind of shooting coach Kuz needs.
To get to 38%, Kyle would have needed to make just 17 more 3-point shots last season. Making 103 rather than just 86 of the 272 3-pointers he attempted. In the playoffs, Kuz would have only needed to make 5 more threes to hit 38%. Making 31 rather than just 26 of the 83 3-pointers he attempted. That’s not an impossible dream with hard work with a shooting coach. It just takes continuous hard work and relentless discipline. I’ll be rooting for Kyle to put in the work and determination to do that. It will transform his career and make him a great player.
Aloha Tom,
i agree with pretty much everything you said. i think Kuz can actually become much more than a 3 and D guy. he was one of the few guys on the team last year that could create his own shot. and 6′ 9″ he gets to the rim very well. he became a good plamaker last year because of that. His defense has really improved and at only 25 it will get better. Defense usually is the last thing to come for young players.
The thing i really like about him is he runs the floor and moves well without the ball. Which is key playing with Lebron. he gets a lot of hustle points. If he can straigten out his 3 point shot and takes a few steps in the rest of his game, he could be a 20 mil a year player. One thing all shooters need are shots. He only got 11 a game last year. Considering a lot of his points were hustle points he needs a few more shots a game.
December 21sr is the deadline for extensions. It kind of comes down to the old argument. which is better cap space space or tradable contracts. They might be able to sign him to a deal between 12 and 15 mil a year.That could be a bargin if he does fix that shot and breaks out. His salary could help facilitate a blockbuster trade or if both him and Dennis play really well, we may not need another star for a couple of years.
Aloha, Michael,
Thanks reading and commenting. I like everything you said, including the comments about a tradeable contract often being better than cap space. It’s a shame the Lakers are hard capped and won’t be able to offer Kuz an extension until after the end of the season. I think they value him but there were other needs that had a greater priority than extending him.
Hopefully, the team and Kuzma will get off to a great start and we won’t trade him at the deadline and he’ll get a chance to stay in purple and gold long term. While I’ve traded him more times than I can count, it’s been because he’s been our best trading chip, not that I don’t like him as a player.
Aloha Tom. They can offer Kuz an extention. The extension doesnt count against the cap because the pay increase will count for next year, not this year.
You’re absolutely correct, Michael. Don’t know what I was thinking. Love to see that happen if Kuz starts well.
I also agree with you that it would help make Kuzma a more valuable trade asset instead of somebody you have to aggregate to get fair value. Best way for Lakers to protect their investment in Kuz.