Overall, the Lakers and Grizzlies appear to be two fairly evenly matched teams, with the 2nd seed Grizzlies starting out as slight favorites over the 7th seed Lakers for their Sunday first round playoff game in Memphis.
The two teams met three times during the regular season, with the Lakers winning two out of three but never with all three stars. LeBron missed two of the three games, Davis one of the three, and Morant one of the three.
Since the trade deadline, the Lakers 115.6 OffRtg is #14, their 110.8 DefRtg is #2, and their +4.8 NetRtg #6 in the league while the Grizzlies 116.7 OffRtg is #12, their 113.0 DefRtg is #10, and their +3.7 NetRtg is #9 in the league.
While the Grizzlies have home court advantage, the Lakers are not only finally getting fully healthy but also peaking at exact right time. Here are four reasons why Lakers should dominate and beat the Grizzlies in six.
1. Superstars
In the NBA, superstars win championships and as dynamic and exciting as the Grizzlies’ Ja Morant is as a superstar, there’s just no way he can match the combined superstar firepower of LeBron James and Anthony Davis.
Where the Lakers superstar advantage dominates is in the matchups. While the Lakers will struggle to defend Ja Morant, the Grizzlies do not have the size or individua defenders to slow down Anthony Davis or LeBron James.
Jaren Jackson, Jr. is not going to outplay Anthony Davis or Dillon Brooks keep up with LeBron James but Jarred Vanderbilt and Rui Hachimura are the long, physical, athletic wings who can make Morant work for his shots.
In the end, a healthy and rested James and Davis will be too much for the young Grizzlies. Lakers will steal one of the two games in Memphis, sweep the two in L.A, lose Game 5 in Memphis but then win Game 6 in L.A.
2. Experience
Experience is a prerequisite to winning in the playoffs and there is no way 23-year old Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson, Jr. can match the chanpionship expierence of 38-year old LeBron James and 30-year old Anthony Davis.
James and Davis proved in the bubble in 2020 that they could carry a team to the NBA championship. Now they are finally healthy and ready to show they’re still the best superstar duo on the planet by winning their 18th title.
Morant and Jackson, Jr. will have an uphill challenge to defeat what is a dramatically better Lakers team than the one that aready beat them two out of three times this season. Missing Adams and Clarke is not going to help.
Bottom line, the veteran playoff and championship experience of LeBron James and Anthony Davis gives the Lakers a big advantage over an untested Grizzies roster that just won their first ever playoff series last season.
3. Health
Every NBA season proves a player’s greastest ability is still his availability. Fortunately for the Lakers, for the very first time this season, they are finally and completely healthy with all 15 players on the roster available.
That means the Lakers will play their best starting lineup for just the eighth time this Sunday. It means they’ll have Mo Bamba, their backup center for the first time in over a month. Lakers are getting healthy at the right time.
Meanwhile, the Memphis Grizzlies will be missing their starting center in Steven Adams and key backup forward off the bench in Brandon Clarke. Xavier Tillman is the undersized backup who will start for Steven Adams
The Grizzlies may have the better record and home court advantage but the Los Angeles Lakers are now 100% healthy whereas the Memphis Grizzlies will be missing two important front court players in Adams and Clarke.
4. Momentum
Momentum could be the x-factor that favors LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and the new-look Lakers over the belicose, rebelluous Ja Morant and the ‘show-me-some-respect’ Memphis Grizzlies in their first round matchup.
LeBron, AD, and the Lakers are on a vision-quest to rise from the ashes of a 2–10 start and win their league-leading 18th NBA championship whereas Ja and the Grizzlies just want to salvage something from this horrid season.
Many had written off the Grizzlies before the Morant situation was resolved without irrepable damage but the team has competed and managed to stop the bleeding. Whether they can beat the Lakers though is another question.
Right now, the Lakers are positioned for a deep playoff run that could lead to their 18th NBA championship. They’re finally healthy and have what could be considered to be a favorable path to title. That’s momentum.
https://twitter.com/LakerTom/status/1646934599661125633
I am worried about the Grizzlies’ speed. I felt that the Lakers’ guards couldn’t stay with the Clippers ’cause they weren’t able to deal with a fast team. And Memphis is faster. We need to hope that the Grizz double AD so we can retaliate by doubling Ja; we’d need the full time efforts f Austin and Vando to try to contain Ja. I’m not sure Rui is the right person to restrain Ja; he could contain JJJ perhaps. I’m crossing my fingers that on Sunday we won’t be blown out of water. If we can slow down the game and make Grizz play half court offense, we may have a shot, not otherwise.
Dean, I agree 100% that speed is our biggest danger. In the one loss to the Grizzlies, we allowed 80 points in the paint which included 33 fast break points. Our guards basically could not stay in front of their guards.
I think the solution is to do the same with Morant as we did with Edwards, which was switch everything on him but don’t trail on the pick and let him put you in jail. Mix that with trapping whenever AD’s man sets the pick.
The Lakers found the formula to control the tempo and prevent penetration against the Wolves. They need to play that same kind of defense Sunday and prevent Ja from going off. The other thing is for whomever Ja defends to attack the basket.
Pretty much agree with all of this but would add another category: Physicality. As in, to what level of physicality is this series going to generally be played at?
With this being a series played mainly on the Grizzlies home floor one would expect that they give the home team some leeway in terms of establishing a level of physicality. That’s also something the Lakers can control by coming into the game and out of the half with the right focus and energy. Still, if the refs let Brooks get in James’ jersey every game and let Jackson body up AD this series will be difficult.
So much of our offense (and defense, honestly) relies on free throws. If that whistle isn’t blowing do we have enough to keep up with the fleet of foot Memphis squad? All of the games between the 2 teams had 20+ FTA’s for each squad with a ridiculous 40+ each in the first game played. The Lakers need to figure out what the refs are calling a foul and do their best to use that to some kind of advantage.
Yes, physicality is a serious factor, but I’m not as worried about it as I am about speed, which always favors the younger team.
Speed can kill, and between Morant, Brooks and JJ they have elite speed at three key positions . I just see us losing the series if we can’t gain the physical advantage, especially in the half court. Don’t let Brooks get into ‘Bron’s head with his antics, bump Ja all the way down the floor (something Caruso was excellent at but Reaves really doesn’t explore and isn’t in D-Lo’s NBA DNA but is in Schröder’s) and AD has to outplay JJ every game. Whether that’s through speed or strength doesn’t really matter, I suppose.
Good point, Jamie. The more physical team will win this series.
Too bad we don’t have Pat Bev to get into Ja’s head. Yikes!
No, he didn’t factor into anything Chicago did. I’d say it’s more a shame we don’t have Thomas Bryant to add a quicker/bigger hustle option over Wenyan. I don’t see a big role for Bamba who is not quick or prone to hustling. There’s no slow of foot center on Memphis so you can’t play him in a small ball line up, they’ll simply run him off the floor and I doubt his ability to make a three pointer changes that.
Young, talented and hungry vs. old, injury prone. Only way this is a competitive series is if the league decides to not give Ja calls because of the gun stuff.
We only have 2 old guys if you want to count Thompson. Griz average age is 24 ours is 26 and that’s with LeBron.
Maybe, but how many of the young Lakers carry this squad? An injury to either Lebron or AD and it’s a wrap.
I think Austin, Rui, Vand & DLo are as good as we can hope for. Our guys defer to Bron & AD, especially Austin, but they’re capable of running the charge by themseles if need be. An injury to AD will be devastating but I’m not coninced of the same with the other. Hopefully we won’t need to test it.
It was one game, but yes, they outperformed expectations.
I love this team and their potential. I’ve also not given up on Beasley or Bamba and think both could have big games for us down the road. But a core of James, Davis, Russell, and Reaves is a great start. Add in Vando, Rui, Dennis, Troy, Malik, and Mo. That’s a damn good 10-man rotation. Can’t afford to keep all of them if we win but the core 7, yes.
Lakers Tiers
——————-
1. Superstars: LeBron, AD
2. Stars: Austin and DLo
3. Diff-Makers: Vando, Rui, Dennis
4. Prospects: Mo, Malik