The overconfident Lakers’ furious fourth quarter rally ran out of gas and Jamal Murray’s clutch dagger three’s in the final 2:17 sealed a Game 3 win and saved the Denver Nuggets from going down 0–3 in the West Finals.
Nuggets’ players and fans may disagree with that assessment of where the Western Conference Finals stand but that’s what an objective comparison of the teams’ strengths and weaknesses and review of the game stats show. While the Nuggets deserve praise for hanging tough the last two games, the Lakers are still the better team with better superstars and a 2–1 lead in the series, despite how well Denver and their two superstars may have played.
All the Nuggets’ desperate win last night did was give them a brief reprieve to keep from going down 0–3. Tomorrow night, their backs are once again against the wall in another ‘must win’ game to keep from going down 1–3. Denver needs to win tomorrow night to keep this series alive because they know the odds of pulling off a third straight 1–3 comeback in these playoffs against a championship caliber Lakers team are close to impossible.
The cocky Lakers came into last night’s game with a 2–0 lead in the West Finals and the knowledge LeBron James is 17–0 when his team takes a 2–0 lead in a playoff series. Unfortunately, they forgot to bring their A-Game. The desperate Nuggets were the hungrier and more aggressive team, dominating the boards 53–34, winning the 3-point shootout by 15 points, making 9 more free throws, and building a 20-point fourth quarter lead.
With 10:24 left in the game, the Lakers came roaring back behind Rondo’s defense and LeBron’s offense and, in a stunning 4 minute 17 second burst, slashed the Nuggets’ 20-point lead to 3 points with 6:07 left on the clock. The game seesawed back and forth until, with just 2:17 left on the clock, Jamal Murray hit a dagger three to put the Nuggets up by 7 and then, with 53.3 seconds left, a second dagger three from 29 feet to seal the win.
Murray’s heroics, like Davis’ the game before, were the difference between winning and losing and the series now stands 2–1 in favor of the Lakers. The Nuggets can wish it were 2–1 in their favor but it could easily be 0–3. They dodged a bullet just like the Lakers did when Davis hit that game winning three. Bottom line, their backs are against the wall again tomorrow night when they must win or once again fall into that familiar 1–3 hole.
The problem the Nuggets face is the Lakers are unlikely to come out flat tomorrow night. The Lakers now know the Nuggets are capable of beating them and are going to come out treating the matchup like a close-out game. The Lakers know they let last night’s game get out of control and rallied too late. LeBron’s on a crusade to win his fourth NBA championship and AD’s going to be hungry to redeem his lackluster performance in Game 3.
The Lakers are going to come out looking to dominate the Nuggets early and coast to a wire-to-wire win. Here are the five reasons why the Lakers will win Game 4 and put the Denver Nuggets on the brink of elimination:
1. Playoff LeBron Will Emerge.
To be honest, the Lakers haven’t needed Playoff LeBron this postseason. However, last night’s loss and insinuations age and mileage are finally catching up with him are exactly what Lebron thrives on for motivation. James has only played 34.4 minutes per game in these playoffs, averaging just 25.9 points, 10.0 rebounds, and 8.8 assists. In the 2018 playoffs, he played 41.9 minutes and averaged 34.0 points, 9.1 boards, and 9.0 assists.
The Lakers are now in the stretch run. With two wins to the Finals and six wins to the championship, it’s time for Playoff LeBron to take over. Look for LeBron to play 40 minutes with a monster triple double in a Game 4 win.
2. Anthony Davis Will Redeem Himself.
While he had 27 points on 9–17 from the field and 9–10 from the line, AD had a disappointing Game 3, especially after his clutch game-winning buzzer-beating heroics to win Game 2. He has openly admitted as much. Davis was passive the entire game, only grabbed two rebounds, and was never a factor with the game on the line. He simply did not deliver a performance worthy of a top-five superstar and team’s second best player.
But Anthony will get an opportunity to redeem himself tomorrow night when the Lakers look to win Game 4, take a 3–1 series lead, and put Denver on the brink of elimination. AD needs to play 40 minutes and dominate.
3. Lakers Defense Will Dominate.
The Lakers had the third best defense during the regular season and have the fourth best defense in the playoffs. Their team identity is defense and they pride themselves on their ability to stop opposing teams’ superstars. They shut down Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum in the first round of the playoffs and James Harden and Russell Westbrook in the second round. They’re confident they can do the same to Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic.
L.A. may have found the defensive key in the fourth quarter last night as their zone held Denver to just 21 points with a 77.8 defensive rating. Look for Frank Vogel to use that zone to crank up the pressure in Game 4.
4. Lakers Will Control the Boards.
The Lakers are the bigger and better rebounding team, 9th in the regular season with 45.7 rebounds per game versus the Nuggets 20th with 44.1. In the playoffs, LA is 7th with 44.0 boards and Denver 13th with 41.4 boards. In the two games they won, the Lakers outrebounded the Nuggets 39 to 34. In the one game they lost, however, the Nuggets dominated the boards 53–34, which is why they were able to build a 20-point lead in the fourth.
One of the Lakers’ strengths as a team is their edge in size and athleticism, which usually translates into winning the rebounding battle. The Lakers will come out and impose their domination on the glass tomorrow night.
5. The Lakers Will Make their Threes.
When opposing teams pack the paint and dare the Lakers to shoot from deep, they need to make their threes to win. In the two games the Lakers won, they shot 38.7% from deep. In last night’s loss, they only shot 23.1%. In the ten playoff games the Lakers won, they shot 39.2% from deep. In the three games they lost, they only shot 22.9%. For the series, the Lakers have shot 34.1% from deep, just a notch below their 35.5% playoff average.
One of the Lakers’ vulnerabilities is their average 3-point shooting, which is why opponents try to clog the lane and force the Lakers to shoot from deep. Fortunately, the numbers strongly suggest the Lakers will make their threes.
Imma wishin and hopin (Dusty), but ya’ll understand we could be easily down 1-2? Guys can’t just show up. Denver always comes to play and even being down 1-3 don’t mean nuthin to them. They are loose and are expected to lose the series. Just down think they believe that. Play harder and smarter. : )
One offensive adjustment the Lakers should make is to take a page out of the Nuggets’ game plan and have LeBron James hunt switches to get Jamal Murray defending him like Denver does to get a Lakers’ guard on Jokic. This not only will give LeBron an advantage but also wear Murray out and get him in foul trouble.
The same strategy should also be deployed against Jokic with Anthony Davis. Make the Nuggets’ two stars work on defense.
Nice write up LT, some good stuff here.
1) I hope so. While I don’t believe in the ‘playoff’ prefix for professional sports I do believe we will see a more focused and determined LeBron James tonight. While we may not see him posting up on the low-block and abusing the Denver defense like I believe we should I do expect him to get to the rim more. Now that’s determined as much by the players he’s sharing the floor with. He needs a rolling big man, likely Howard but we’ll see what the fouls dictate, and he needs a couple three ball shooters and Davis. So somebody needs to get hottish from three, hopefully more than one guy and James needs to not settle for mid-range fade-aways.
2) Davis needs to spend less time guarding Jokic. As Buba astutely pointed out in hsi response to my, AD banging against Nikola for extended minutes isn’t a recipe for Laker success. If you want Davis a little fresher for the close out of a game then you need more minutes from Hoawrd and McGee. I would prefer Howard, he’s the better defender and looks fresher in general, but you also want Dwight with 3, maybe 4, fouls going into the 4th quarter and that’s not something we’ve really been able to count on. Fair or not, Dwight has a rep and has a tendency to pick up 1-2 silly fouls/game. That hurts us in terms of his availability. At any rate, I think we should switch up the center rotation Start Dwight but play JaVale when Mason is on the floor, absorb those minutes, don’t need AD banging against scrubs, save him for the 4th.
3) This could be points 1-5. Our defense needs to figure out the pick and roll dilemna that Jokic and Murray present. It’s not like the Lakers are alone in struggling to contain the duo, the Clippers are at home for that specific reason, Utah, too. The zone worked but now it won’t be unexpected, blitzing Murray opens passing lanes and he’s not the passer Nikola is, that might work a little bit, too. All in all i think we need to commit better to stopping The Team and live with solid star output, you have to giv something up and it’s easier to shut down the other 3 players on the floor. We especially need to dominate when Jokic sits on D. We cannot afford to lose or even break even in those minutes.
4) We at least need to keep it competitive. This is where Paul ilsap does a lot of damage and the Nuggets are great at the tap out off misses. We need to box out better and go up with 2 hands, especially our guards. But if it’s not close we’re in trouble.
5) This, to me, feels like wishful thinking. We just don’t have shooters with knock down DNA. JR has that but is a huge liability on D. Waiters seems to have gone to Waiters Island and pulled a castaway on us. Seemed like he could contribute but is oftn in street clothes most nights which is disappointing. If you want Caruso’s D you have to live with his spotty outside shooting, same goes for Danny Green and Rondo. In my opinion, the guy we need to unlock from three is one Kyle Kuzma. If we can get K-squared going from the outside it opens up an entirely different game. I think w should try and get the man from Flint going early and see if w can force a different defensive posture from Denver. Mainly, if you’re open, don’t think twice just let it fly.
Our bench needs to be better than their bench and we’ll put ourselves in a good position to go up 3-1.
1. Don’t diss LeBron, Jamie. He’s going to dominate tonight.
2. Don’t diss AD either. He’s going to dominate tonight.
3. Way to stop them on offense is hunt them on defense.
4. We will dominate boards. Last game was an outlier.
5. GHE response as usual. We hit our 3’s in 10 of 13 games.
The Lakers used 6 5-player lineups in the 3 games against the Nuggets. 5 had positive net ratings and 1 was negative.
Here are the five with positive net ratings:
1. Howard, Rondo, Green, Davis, Caldwell-Pope: 7 min, +31.3
2. James, Rondo, Davis, Caruso, Kuzma: 21 min, +22.5
3. James, Howard, Green, Davis, Caldwell-Pope: 15 min, +22.5
4. Rondo, Davis, Caldwell-Pope, Caruso, Kuzma: 10 min, +11.4
5. James, McGee, Green, Davis, Caldwell-Pope: 24 min, +6.4
What does this tell us? The McGee lineup is not terrible but not worthy of the most minutes.
Here is the one with negative net rating:
6. James, Rondo, Morris, Caruso, Kuzma: 13 min, -41.2
What does this tell us? Don’t play Morris without Davis or Howard. Frank used this when Plumlee was in game and it backfired badly.
Who should start? I do buy the theory of not getting Dwight into foul trouble although the flip side is it’s a chance to get Joker in foul trouble. But I think the best move is to start Morris instead.
That’s a lineup that’s played together well, gives us better 3-point shooting, more speed on the break, and quicker rotations on defense. It worked against the Rockets and should against the Nuggets.
What about the bench? I would play LeBron and AD 40 minutes and limit bench to Rondo, Caruso, Kuzma, and Howard. I would also try to use those four proven lineups that have worked and avoid any new combinations. Time to lock and load and put Denver on the brink of elimination.