As their strategy to go big and pursue a modern starting center like Myles Turner, Kristaps Porzingis, or Naz Reid slowly implodes, the Lakers would be smart to try to steal center Brook Lopez from the Milwaukee Bucks.
Realistically, Brook Lopez may be the Lakers’ last chance to acquire a modern starting center this summer. The Pacers may be unwilling to trade Turner and Porzingis and Reid have already been traded to competitors. The Lakers believe their conference finals run ended partly due to their lack of positional size advantage against the Nuggets. Starting Lopez at center and moving James and Davis down a position would solve that.
While Lopez is 35 and injury prone, he’s also coming off what could be his career best season, shooting 37.4% from deep, blocking the 3rd most shots in the league, and finishing a close second to Jaren Jackson, Jr. for DPOY. Frankly, Brook is not only a perfect a fit for what L.A. needs at center as he can stretch the floor and protect the rim but now he may also now be the last available, affordable modern starting center left this summer.
Let’s look at what Brook Lopez’ is worth today as a free agent, whom the Lakers will be competing with to acquire him, and what the Lakers sign-and-trade deal, depth chart, and salary cap will look like post-trade.
What Is 35-Year Old Brook Lopez’ Market Value?
Lopez just finished a 4-year $52 million contract with the Milwaukee Bucks, who are at a franchise crossroads with Mike Budenholzer being fired and both Brook Lopez and Khris Middleton hitting unrestricted free agency.
Brook averaged 15.9 points, 6.7 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 2.5 blocks, 0.5 steals in 30.4 minutes per game while shooting 53.1% from the field, 37.4% from deep, and 78.4% from the line on 11.5 shots, 4.7 threes, and 2.4 free throws. Were he 25-years old rather than 35-years old, Lopez would be worth a max salary. Regardless of age, Brook had a year for which he deserves a raise from the $13 million per year he earned in his last contract with the Bucks.
The maximum deal Brook can sign with the Bucks is $54 million over three years due to the “over-38-rule,” which prevents him from signing a deal for four years or longer since he would turn 38-years old during that contract. Right now, it’s unknown whether the Bucks are going to bring back Lopez and/or Middleton. Milwaukee knows their core is getting older and the first round exit in the playoffs could motivate the front office to get younger.
Most NBA prognosticators project 35-year old Brook Lopez’ contract value as between $40 to $60 million over three years but the Milwaukee Bucks are rumored to want to sign him to a 2-year deal for between $30 to $35 million. The Athletic’s John Hollinger’s BORD$ value for Lopez is $16,241,034 though he says: “I don’t think the money gets quite as low as this, but maybe something in the range of $55 million to $60 million over three years?”
The Los Angeles Lakers have a unique opportunity to steal Brook Lopez from the Milwaukee Bucks and other NBA teams. Brook Lopez is likely going to command a fully guaranteed 3-year contract for $50-60 million.
Who Are Lakers’ Competition For Brook Lopez?
The NBA teams listed as free agent destinations for Brook Lopez include the Houston Rockets, Sacramento Kings, Dallas Mavericks, Atlanta Hawks, New Orleans Pelicans, Los Angeles Clippers, and Los Angeles Lakers.
The Bucks have to be considered to be the favorites to re-sign Brook Lopez and it would not be a complete surprise if they made a move before free agency to lock him up similar to what the Timberwolves did with Naz Reid. Of the other teams interested in signing Lopez in free agency, the Rockets, Spurs, Thunder, Hawks, and Kings can all create enough cap space to sign Brook Lopez in free agency this summer for 3-years and up to $60 million.
While the Lakers could make moves to pursue Lopez in free agency, it makes more sense for them to pursue a sign-and-trade for him even though that would hardcap them at $172.7 million total payroll for next season. The difference is the Lakers would have to renounce D’Angelo Russell to create the cap space to sign Brook Lopez as free agent, which would then limit the Lakers to only being able to offer Russell the $12.4 million MLE.
Bottom line, there’s going to be no shortage of NBA teams interested in signing Brook Lopez in free agency next week but the big question is how many will be willing to give 35-year old center a guaranteed 3-year deal? The fact that Brook Lopez played for and has great respect for Lakers’ head coach Darvin Ham during his years as an assistant for Mike Budenholzer on the Milwaukee Bucks could give the Lakers an edge over other teams.
Brook Lopez is likely looking at the last contract of his career so there’s always the chance he will chase the most money. In any event, the Lakers need to offer him three years and $60 million guaranteed to sign him.
How Do Lakers Look After Brook Lopez Trade?
While the Lakers could renounce players they do not plan to keep to create cap space to sign Brook Lopez to a guaranteed 3-year $60 million free agent contract, the cleaner and smarter route would be to sign-and-trade for him.
While signing-and-trading for Lopez would hard cap the Lakers’ total team salaries at $172.3 million for next season, they would still be able to bring back the core of the roster that made it to the Western Conference Finals. James, Davis, Vanderbilt, and Christie were under contract. Lakers used Bird rights to re-sign Russell, Reaves, and Hachimura and the BAE to bring back Lonnie Walker IV. Along with Lopez, that’s a solid 9-man rotation.
Note this scenario assumes the Lakers plan to rely on the acumen of their scouting staff to fill out the roster with more less-expensive two-way and undrafted players and fewer more-expensive minimum-salary veterans. Here’s a detailed breakdown of the salary cap that shows the salary for each player next season and the total team payroll and then compares that total to the two luxury tax aprons and calculates how much the team is under.
The Lakers have a unique opportunity to approach Brook Lopez with a proposed 3-year $60 million sign-and-trade to return to Los Angeles as the team’s starting center with a special lifetime Gold Pass to Disneyland.
With the Nuggets officially crowned and the Warriors and Suns building superteams, the Lakers’ path to this season’s NBA championship is likely to be tougher and more difficult and challenging than faced last season. While the Lakers plan to bring back most of the core from their conference finals team and have pledged to upgrade the team to championship caliber. The surest and easiest way to do that is to sign-and-trade for Brook Lopez.
Signing-and-trading for Brook Lopez and adding him to the core of their conference finals team is the kind of move that should transform the Los Angeles Lakers into the favorite to win the 2023-24 NBA Championship.
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Rookies have no no monetary value until they are signed and can not be traded for 30 days after signing a contract. I wonder if Lopez would even want to come back, considering the Lakers totally dissed him when he wanted to stay and was willing to sign for 5 mil. I think it would be pretty ugly watching LeBron trying to keep up with young athletic wings in year 21. Lebron generally was assighned the worst offensive player last year. remember we had Patbev guarding guys loke PG and Tatum last year. there is a reason for tthat.
Aloha, Michael,
It’s not that I don’t share your concern about LeBron having to defend small forward, it’s just that I think the benefits of having a modern starting five like Turner or Lopez are greater.
I also think it’s important for the team to get depth behind both LeBron and AD to reduce their workload and provide insurance against injuries. That’s why Vando and Rui are so important. And why we need a Turner or Lopez.
Ideally, the Lakers need a starting quality center and small forward so they can play big or small. Right now, I don’t see any starter quality 3&D wing available that we can acquire. But Brook Lopez is available and I’m sure would love to play for Darvin Ham on the Lakers.
We all have our preferences on how we’d like to see the Lakers play and who we’d like to see on the roster. But we also need to realize who our coach is and his preferred style of play last season. Lotta small ball and 3 guard lineups trying to push pace for easy transition buckets. It got him to the conference finals so I’m not 100% sure he’s ready to abandon that. Jamal Murray (present) killed us in every game of that sweep and spending $20mill on Brook for each of the next 3 years ain’t gonna change that.
That’s true but I think a lot of it had to do with who was available. Had Darvin had bigs like Brook Lopez and Bobby Portis, we would be playing two bigs. The only reason we didn’t start out that way was we didn’t have anybody good enough to start at center next to AD.
Ham knows how valuable Brook would be to this team and how it would transform the Lakers. And I think Brook would love playing for Darvin and finishing his career in purple and gold. There’s a reason the Lakers have coveted Myles Turner and Brook Lopez would be a great fit.
Lol, the dude is an unrestricted free agent. Nobody going to steal, he’s going to make a choice. I will say that price point is waaaaaaay too high for a player approaching his decline. He had a bounce-back season, in a contract year, after back surgery so one would hope he as at least another year of this in him.
I think the more pertinent question is one of fit. On offense it seems
Like he would hang out around the three point line a lot since he and AD both can’t clog the paint. This, I feel, would be a waste since Brook is a decent three point shooter but an elite rebounder and paint scorer. Then there’s Mongo’s astute point about Coach Ham’s penchant for playing 3 guards w/LeBron and AD. All of these will diminish his spacing impact on our offense.
On defense is where I think he could have the most impact in that we’d have a solid paint defender that AD could augment as an elite free roamer. That’s a pretty obvious improvement over any current internal solution.
Is that worth $60 mil over three seasons? Maybe? Hard to know but I can say what I don’t like about it is how the overall age of the team creeps closer to 40 rather than sliding back towards 30. This team needs to get better with younger guys, a tough slog. Now, as I’m sure I’ve made known, I’m not a huge fan of Mo Bamba buuuut for the role it feels like our center will have (and the cheap and expiring deal he’s on, relatively speaking) I think I’d just as soon pick up his option and see what he can with a training camp. If he plays well you can have a nice choice at the deadline between a potential trade or keeping him for the season. If he plays great you can extend him with early Bird rights (maybe full…?) and if he’s awful he’s gone with no issue next summer.
Bottom line is I won’t be mad if we sign Brook but at $20 mil/per that may be a price point we regret sooner than later.
With a 3 year 60m deal with a team option for year 3 this is worth making the trade, at least for Brook (Lakers are trying to resign Dennis, which will take the TPMLE, plus losing Lonnie, as we can’t afford him at 7.8m). The math works & we get at least 2 years of a really decent offensive & defensive center. If we have to Guarantee the 3rd year, but make this deal if we can. We will be a much better team (if Dennis goes maybe use TPMLE to get Jevon Carter.)
Hey, everybody, welcome Brian Stoner to the blog. Brian is a die hard Lakers fan whom I met on Twitter and who always has great smart takes on everything purple and gold. He’s also a CPA but we’ll forgive that because of the great last name.
Welcome Brian!
Technically not a trade since Brook is an URFA.
If the deal comes with a team (and even player) option for the non-LeBron years that makes it slightly more palatable.
Not sure Brook could “stop” jokic but having Brook and AD would make that a tougher series for Denver. If there’s a bail out for any non-LeBron years that makes a little more sense.
Still, at 35 years of age, we’re likely going to get less and less out of Brook with each year on that deal starting in year 1.
I am really starting to feel this deal can work, but the snag is DLO at 22m(?) and not having enough to sign Dennis, which the Lakers want to do. We can trade for Brook by himself with the Bucks for Beasley & Bamba (the numbers work) but don’t want to give up draft capital for this (maybe a second down the road.) We can stay under the 2nd Apron to the point where we can use the TPMLE & then decide whether we want Dennis or Javon Carter at 5m. We stay under 2nd Tax Apron & get us a better team than before, but will lose Lonnie & Shaq Harrison (oh well, Lonnie was too expensive for us anyway at 7.8m.)
Hey, Brian, great to see you joining the blog. It’s going to be fascinating seeing if Pelinka can outdo his trade deadline heroics. If we bring back Reaves, Hachimura, Russell, and Walker, it’s going to be hard to add a player like Lopez.
May come down to whether the Lakers are willing to pay luxury taxes. And whether they’re willing to start Austin Reaves at point guard rather than an experienced point guard like Russell or Schroder. We may wee Bucks re-sign Brook today or tomorrow. If not, then we may have a chance.
Just not sure of what Pelinka defines as ‘the margins.’ Does that include anybody who isn’t a superstar or are we talking about 11-14 players? I have a hunch this is going to be one of the wildest free agency periods in NBA history.
Hi, Tom. Please welcome Brian Stoner to the blog for me. I think the tread ran out of reply options. Also, it was great to see Humanomaly on the blog yesterday.
If the rumor mill is to be trusted (it’s not) Brook is leaning towards re-upping in Milwaukee.