Finally healthy, the Lakers’ defensive dominance while winning four of their last five games has catapulted them to a 14–9 record tied for fourth in the West and could change how they plan to approach the trade deadline.
With Anthony Davis dominating everywhere, Cam Reddish emerging as the team’s starting defensive stopper, and Jarred Vanderbilt finally returning from injury, the Lakers have suddenly become a defensive juggernaut.
Over the last five games, the Lakers’ defense has posted a league-best 103.1 defensive rating that combined with their 114.6 offensive rating enabled them to generate a +11.5 net rating, which was second best in the league.
With backup point guard Gabe Vincent scheduled to return when the Lakers play the Knicks at home on December 18, the Lakers will finally have their full roster healthy for the very first time this entire season.
While D’Angelo Russell has been having an excellent season and is shooting 40.5% on 5.5 attempts per game, Gabe Vincent has the long term contract and is considered to be the better defender between the two.
How the Lakers play the rest of December will have a major impact on their ultimate trade deadline decisions. L.A. has 11 games remaining before December 31st and are unlikely to make any moves before then.
Should they continue to win games, dominate defensively, and rise in the standings, however, the Lakers may ultimately decide to stand pat or only make minor moves on the margins before the February 8 trade deadline.
Let’s take a look at how the Lakers’ defense has emerged as a dominant force, why the 11 games remaining in December could change Lakers’ midseason strategy, and what the Lakers are likely to do at the deadline.
LAKERS’ DEFENSIVE DOMINATION
Injuries muddied the Lakers’ early vision of a big, long, and athletic bully ball defense that could dominate the paint,control the rim, and shrink the court and with their overwhelming positional size, length, and physicality.
Give Lakers’ head coach Darvin Ham credit for the bold move that ignited the Lakers’ defense by moving Austin Reaves to 6th man and making Cam Reddish the team’s starting shooting guard and de facto defensive stopper.
In the 12 games since that change, the Lakers record is 10–2 and their defense has consistently ranked among five best in the league. Reddish has also played well offensively and appears to be a lock as starting two guard.
But the return of injured forwards Jarred Vanderbilt and Rui Hachimura triggered a second wave of improvement for the Lakers size and defense. Now when Cam Reddish leaves the court, Jarred Vanderbilt comes in.
There was kind of a consensus Taurean Prince was simply a placeholder for Jarred Vanderbilt. While that could still turn out to be the case, being able to have an elite perimeter defender all 48 minutes is a killer weapon.
And that’s exactly what the Lakers threw at Tyrese Haliburton every minute he was in the game. Haliburton noted in his postgame presser thankfully “Not every team has Anthony Davis and a bunch of 6′ 8” and 6′ 9″ wings.” Every time the Pacers tried to pull Anthony Davis out of the paint with a Haliburton pick-and-roll, the Lakers counter by trapping and doubling Tyrese and forcing him to make tough passes that James was waiting for.
The Lakers’ defensive domination is real and should only get better when 6’3″ point-of-attack defender Gabe Vincent returns to action next week. Lakers plan to ride their #1 defense to a league-leading 18th NBA title.
LAKERS’ DECEMBER CHALLENGE
The Los Angles Lakers’ December challenge starts with 4 winnable games, including 1 road game against the Mavs without Kyrie, 2 road games against the Spurs, and 1 home game against the Knicks without Mitchell Robinson.
Then comes the most challenging part of the Lakers’ December schedule as they depart on a 7-game road trip. From December 21 to 30, the Lakers play the Timberwolves twice and the Celtics and the Thunder once each.
Ideally, the Lakers should sweep the 3-game Texas road trip and 1-game homestand versus the Knicks to raise their record to 18–9. Should L.A. be able to go 5–2 on that road trip, it would leave them at 23–11 at year end.
A 23–11 record should be good enough for #2 seed in the West, assuming the Timberwolves continue to hold the #1 seed. Were the Lakers to win both of the teams’ games in late December, Lakers could even be #1.
While the Lakers continue to prove defense can carry them, they need better and more 3-point shooting to loosen up opposing defenses if they want to win the championship. Right now, it’s limiting their ceiling.
The numbers behind the Lakers’ poor 3-point shooting are telling. Lakers rank #30 with 10.2 makes per game while allowing 13.5 makes per game, which means they are losing the 3-point battle by 9.9 points per game.
The Lakers counter that by winning the points-in-the-paint battle by 6.5 points per game and the made-free-throws battle by 5.5 points. That’s the Lakers’ game plan and at this point, it’s working and Lakers are winning.
How the Lakers handle this December challenge will influence what the team does at the trade deadline. They’ll clearly have to shoot better than they did against the Pacers to survive the December challenge.
LAKERS DEADLINE NEEDS
The Los Angeles Lakers are simply the worst 3-point shooting team in the league. They make the fewest threes of any NBA team because they take the second fewest attempts and shoot the fifth worst percentage of any team.
However, the Lakers have been better during the last 15 games of the season, when they’ve gone 11–4. During those 15 games, the team raised it’s 3-point percentage from 34.3% to 36.8%, which ranked 14th in the league.
The problem is that 2.5% increase in 3P% only worked out to be 1.8 more points per game because they still took less than 30 3PA per game. The Lakers will need to make a trade to solve their 3-point shooting problem
In the modern NBA era, the NBA championship has never been won by the team that is the worst 3-point shooting team in the league. The Lakers would have to make history to the NBA championship shooting so poorly.
Nor is the answer is Zach LaVine or Trae Young, who are both too expensive and fragile. More than anything, the Lakers need a proven lethal 3-point shooter who will torch teams every time they try to double LeBron or AD.
But the Lakers will need to trade for a volume 3-point shooter if they want to cut down on the massive negative 3-point differential that they face in almost every game. The current roster can’t shoot their way out of this. Pelinka may even have to spend a valuable draft pick to get a player who can shoot near 40% and takes 7 to 8 threes per game. Adding a lethal shooter like Buddy Hield or Bojan Bogdanovic could be the missing piece.
The Lakers essentially need a high volume, high percentage 3-point shooter as fifth starter next to LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Cam Reddish and either D’Angelo Russell or Gabe Vincent. Someone like Bojan Bogdanovic.
LakerTom says
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LakerTom says
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LakerTom says
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LakerTom says
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Michael H says
Aloha Tom, Nice post. I agree with most of your points. While we definitely need to shoot more 3’s I don’t think trading for a shooter will do much. The Lakers simply do not run plays for 3 point shooters. Case in point. DLO is shooting 40% from 3 on 5.5 3 point attempts a game, yet we don’t set him up. He gets his on transition pull ups and drive and kicks. That just the way the Lakers play. In this system, it’s more important to have several guys out there that can hit a 3 than having a volume shooter. DLO is always the trade piece to get that shooter but trading him for another shooter would be a wash. As you pointed out our shooting has been improving. Prince seems to have rediscovered his stroke and we know Austin is better than he has shown. I think our shooting percentage will be fine. As for attempts, that’s on the coaching staff to find ways to generate more 3 point looks. Attacking the paint will continue to be the focus. Part of the low 3 point attempts have been a result of us being so successful in the paint.
LakerTom says
Aloha, Michael,
Thanks for reading and commenting. You make some key points about our 3-point shooting and the problem is certainly not a new or easy one to solve. Bottom line, I don’t think we’re very far apart from agreeing.
First, I do agree with you that it’s going to be hard for Lakers to trade DLo because they need his shooting and playmaking and getting a better replacement may not be possible. And relying on Gabe at this point w/b risky.
But I think two things are obvious.
1. We need to take and make more threes, not shoot better.
No matter how much better we shoot (up 2.5% in last 5 games), it’s not going to help our negative 3-point differential because what we need is more made threes, which you only get from taking more threes.
2. Current roster can’t solve problem. We need volume 3-point shooter
Lakers need a high volume & percentage 3-point shooter, a gunner like Hield or Bogdanovic, who will take 7 to 10 threes per game.
Doesn’t have to be superstar or make $40M or be more than a great fit for the next two years.
I believe that player is Bojan Bogdanovic. We’ll have to give up the pick to get him but he could be difference maker imo.
He replaces Prince at small forward in the starting lineup.
Michael H says
I guess the big difference between us is, you believe the answer is a volume 3 point shooter and I don’t believe we will change the offense to accommodate one. This is a Lebroncentric offense. In this offense the ball finds the open man. We rarely run plays for shooters. If we did DLO would be getting plays run for him.
LakerTom says
I think that’s an accurate description. I do believe having a player on the court like Buddy Hield or Bojan Bogdanovic is the key to the team cutting down on their negative 3-point differential. Nor am I wanting to shift the true focus of our team from our defense or our offense from it’s rim attack mode.
I just firmly believe we can be a much better team if we had one truly lethal volume 3-point shooter. Hield, Bogdanovic, Herro. I think that will be our trade target because we can’ win being dead last in 3PM and the current players aren’t going to solve problem.
Anyway, I think we both love the team we have right now and the defense they can play. It has the potential as the best supporting cast LeBron and AD have had on the Lakers.
LakerTom says
I also think there are shooters who are so lethal that opposing teams try not to leave them open and teammates are always looking to get them the ball. We need one of those guys.
LakerTom says
The problem with the Lakers negative 3-point differential is that it cannot be solved by just shooting better. You have to shoot more threes. And our current players just cannot do that.
The math just doesn’t work. Shooting better from deep has little impact because what counts are 3PM and the Lakers don’t have enough 3PA to make a lot of 3PM.
Of course, the player whom we get will have to beat the Lakers’ curse but we don’t have to just run plays for him. LeBron and others will find him because he will trust him. That’s what we don’t have now. Play smart and the ball will find him.
You can’t take a 3 or 4 shots per game 3-point shooter and turn him into a 8 to 9 shot guy. You have to trade for an 8 to 9 shot shooter who has the gravity with opponents and teammates to get those shots.
Anyway, I love the team we have right now but I think we have to give up some insurance depth to get more shooting in the starting lineup to win #18.
LakerTom says
https://twitter.com/LakerTom/status/1734630039826698571
Michael H says
Rui is another example. Last year he shot 49% in the playoffs but only got 2.5 shots even though he is on fire. This year despite the injuries he is getting 3 shots at 40%. Because we do not run offense for 3 point shooters. Bojan has only played 4 games but last year he shot 41% from 3 on 6 attempts. He has only shot 7 3 a game once in his career. He would be just like Rui. Sitting in a spot. Waiting. Besides Rui is an overall better player than Bojan. Perhaps the key is getting more shots for our shooters.
DJ2KB24 says
YES!
LakerTom says
https://twitter.com/LakerTom/status/1734719765472747729