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Probably not a lot of folks predicted this as the match up to decide which two teams would vie to represent the western conference in the NBA finals. But here we are: Nuggets vs. Lakers. Not since Carmelo Anthony was suiting up for the Mile-High Denver squad has a Nuggets team progressed this far through the NBA playoffs. Not since Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol were starring for the Lakers have we played in a conference finals and not since we took the season all the way to game 7 against Boston have we brought home the cookie. Good stuff.

1. Denver doesn’t want to stop playing basketball. They’ve been counted out in 2 series, 6 elimination games and they’re still breathing. Not only do the Denver Nuggets not want to stop playing hoops but the rest of planet Earth should stop counting the Nuggets out. That starts here. While I am tempted to revise my prediction for how this series will go (Lakers in 6) I think there are enough factors that tilt the series in our favor for me to still be comfortable with that call. Mainly it still comes down to our defense. I think we can force the Nuggets not named Jokic and Murray to beat us. I like those odds but I also have a healthy dose of respect for the work Mike Malone does and the talent of the Denver superstar duo.
2. Lakers rust game. Mark it down now: we’re losing on Friday. We haven’t fared well at all in the opening game of any of our playoff series. While Denver will have come off a momentum-building, franchise-defining, NBA history-making back to back 7 game series in which they were down 3-1 in both the Lakers will have been off for nearly a week. We’re going to be out of rhythm, our rotations won’t be sharp, our jumpers will be off, in short…we’ll be rusty. While I’d love to be wrong on this one it might also, in an odd way, help us if we let Denver get over-confident. I’m kidding, it would be better to win game 1 and set a tone. But I’m calling losses in game 1 and game 3 before we figure the Nuggets out for good and put them away in 6.
3. Stopping the Nuggets. The Nuggets and Lakers match up well. They both feature an elite scorer and play maker (Jamal Murray and LeBron James) and a talented big man who can do it all (Anthony Davis and Nikola Jokic. The difference comes on the other end. James and Davis are also top notch defenders, Jokic and Murray are not. We need to make them work on defense. The Clippers with the minutes restriction and conditioning issues that affected Montrezl Harrell and the fact that Zubac just isn’t played enough (same issue he faced on the Lakers: talented big man just not talented enough, evidently…) never wore Jokic down and, despite having two elite defenders in Leonard and George, couldn’t corral Murray. The key to stopping Denver is to take the ball out of both Murray and Jokic’s hands. Force them into uncomfortable spots on the floor and you live with them scoring points but on lots more shots. Make the rest of the team beat you.
4. Lakers starting five. You know it’s coming. 6,362 articles from LakerTom proclaiming that Markieff Morris should start, McGee and Howard should be benched and so on and so forth. Amazingly, I disagree. I think you need to punish Denver inside, beat Jokic down by making him bang with a big and save AD for the 5 in crunch time. Force Nikola to defend Howard and McGee in the post, maybe pick up some fouls on him and get him tired for the 4th. So you read it here first (and on this site probably only, lol) but we’ll see a lot more of Howard and McGee until we move on or that proves to be ineffective.
5. The unheralded star of this series will be… Danny Green. I know, I can hear you groaning from here on the West side of LA. Skeptics of this aren’t off-base in any way shape or form: to put it simply Danny Green has disappointed as a Laker in regards to his contract, his on-court production and mostly his ability to hit the corner three reliably. But this series is primed for a third star to shine and Danny showed a lot of signs of life against the Rockets. He might have a rough game 1. But I’m going with Danny Green as my “Not LeBron or AD” Laker to rise to the occasion.

All in all, the prediction game is fun and all but let’s face it: we’re, at best, arm chair GMS, coaches and players. The pros are pros for a reason and this series is going to be a great test of the Laker team and coaches. Mike Malone isn’t a one-trick pony like Mike D’Antoni. Jamal Murry isn’t the prolific scorer James Harden is or the force of nature that is Russell Westbrook or the ridiculously clutch performer that is Damien Lillard but he’s got a little of all three of those dudes in his game and he plays without fear. Jokic is the best true center in the game today (I consider Anthony Davis a power forward because that’s what he considers himself to be and who am I to argue?) The Laker defense hasn’t had to contain a player with Jokic’s size, shooting and skill, yet.

Also, it was so nice to see that the Clippers choked. I am of the opinion that there are no ordained match ups, that one team or another doesn’t present more or less of a challenge just a different one. The team that wins a playoff series is the better team. So the Lakers are getting the other best team in the western conference, no matter what the pundits predicted, the fans wanted or the bookies predicted. This series could go Denver’s way if the Lakers aren’t focused and ready to compete at the highest level. Honestly, I’m kinda glad we didn’t get the “not battle for Los Angeles” that the Clippers/Lakers would have presented in the Bubble. Let’s save that one for next season when we’re back in arenas, there are fans in the seats and we;re the #1 seed and the Clippers are #8.

Go Lakers.