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5 Things: The Los Angeles Lakers return to the NBA Finals

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Buckle up buckaroos this here’s the wildest Bubble on Earth! If you told me you had called Heat/Lakers for the cookie at the beginning of this season which now dates back to this same time last year I’d call BS. And yet here we are. Miami Heat vs. Los Angeles Lakers. LeBron James vs. Pat Riley. Maybe not the NBA dream match up of Lakers/Celtics but pretty darn close, all things considered.

  1. The Battle of the Defenses. Both teams have a multitude of ways they like to deny the favored attack of their opposition. We just saw a Miami team with nobody much over 6’10” (Kelly Olynyk go ahead and raise your hand) in the rotation shut down the paint against the Boston Celtics who, up to that point, had thrived there. So what makes anyone think the Lakers will fare any better? Two words: LeBron James. The Heat defense did well containing the minuscule Kemba Walker who gamely still tried driving the ball to the rim. Tatum and Brown drive when there’s a lane but not as a matter of pure offensive shot creation via the score or pass. That’s LeBron’s game to a T. Conversely the Lakers just showed that they can defend like a hydra, each head specializing in a different kind of shut down. Zone? Sure, man-to-man? Yup. Switch everything? that’s a big “can do good buddy!” Miami will have more issues penetrating the Lakers defense than we will have theirs but I still expect it to be a fascinating chess match as the game within the game between Spo and Frank unfolds on national TV. Edge: Lakers.
  2. Starters vs. Starters. The Miami Heat revamped their starting five once the playoffs started and to devastating effect. Tyler Herro was replaced by former All Star Goran Dragic who promptly unlocked the best version of the Miami Heat offense. Dragic functions like the shrimp version of LeBron James in that his drives are twofold in their goal: score or hit the wide open man. Same goes Bam Adebayo. The Miami point-center likes to get the ball in a multitude of spots and then either can jumpers, break his man down off the dribble or assist a teammate. Much like our own AD. Biggest difference really is that our guys are bigger and shoot a little more efficiently (thanks mainly to our dedication to attacking the rim). Duncan Robinson will have to deal with Danny Green who has made defense his calling card since he entered the league in what will be the battle of three and D shooting guards. KCP will attempt to check Dragic but will have elite help lurking near the paint. The biggest question for the Lakers will be if Dwight Howard starts over JaVale McGee which I think likely. For the Heat the biggest question is what version of Jae Crowder they get. Will it be the light’s out shooter from three we saw at the Bubble’s beginning or the on/off shooter we’ve seen of late? His defense will be staunch but if he’s making his open shots from three it will be a big problem for our defense. Edge: Lakers if Dwight starts, even if JVMG.
  3. Battle of the Benches. I feel like this is where the series will be won or lost. The Miami Heat have some key pieces coming off the bench. Andre’ Iguodala will be no stranger to basketball fans and looks like he’s rounding into form just in time for the NBA Finals. That’s bad news for the Lakers if he can recapture any of the play-making, shooting or defense akin to when he won NBA Finals MVP over LBJ. AI is a five tool player who, when on, presents a match up nightmare for opposing defensive schemes. A willing passer, able shooter from anywhere, with above average size, quickness and strength that makes him a force on both ends. Add Tyler Herro to that mix off the bench and you quickly see how Rondo, Caruso, Morris and McGee will have issues matching . Makes me wonder if Frank has a trick or two in terms of Jared Dudley, Dion Waiters or even Talen Horton-Tucker getting some burn, especially in the second quarter when LeBron and Davis generally get the most rest. One thing is for certain: I expect both coaches to empty the tool box to find the advantage that wins them 4 games. Nothing is (or at least shouldn’t) be off the table. Edge: Miami.
  4. Spo vs. Vogel. I actually think the Laker offense is very similar to the offense that ousted Vogel when LeBron was on Miami and he was coaching Indy. They have a similar “we have some plays but let’s really just get out of LeBron’s way and let the best player do his thing” look to them. It’s on defense where both coaches leave a lot more of their mark on their respective teams. But in general I think the advantage here is pretty even. Neither coach is so invested in a specific style or scheme that they’re unwilling to adapt. Spo’s get’s the edge in playoff experience, Frank has the edge in player’s with playoff experience. Both are professionals, classy and savvy. Edge: even.
  5. So how’s this going to end dude? Glad you asked! This series will be hard fought and decided on defense. The Lakers have the size edge and the talent edge so it’ll take something evening that scale for Miami to have a real shot. Having said that the Heat have surprised everyone at every turn, done a great job at living at the line and imposing their will on defense. Bam is an up and coming star, Jimmy was one before he came to Miami and everyone forgets Dragic was an All Star a couple years back but has been hobbled in recent years. I’m calling Lakers in 6 and tonight might be one of those losses. I say that because we haven’t faced this version of Miami, yet. We faced the old “we’re starting a bunch of rookies an dhaving vets come off the bench and we also don’t have Iggy” version of Miami. It’s a different team and so it might take us a game to adapt. If we win game 1 my prediction might be off by one game. Lakers in 6 baby!!!!! (no GHE malarkey from LT, either, this is a real 6 gamer!)

One way or another this is a moment to be enjoyed by Laker Nation. Been a helluva long time coming and it’s been a lot of fun watching this all play out in the playoffs. Whatever you do, savor the moment. These things aren’t guaranteed and we’ve just come through one of the darkest chapters in Lakers’ history. So let’s wipe the slate clean, tie Boston at 17 and bring home a cookie for Kobe. 1-2-3-MAMBA!!!!

Go Lakers.

Three Critical Match Up Questions for the Lakers and Heat in the NBA Finals!

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Whether regular season or the playoffs, the NBA is all about the matchups. Because offense and defense in a playoff series is often more of a team than individual effort, lineup and rotations matchups can determine the winner.

How the Los Angeles Lakers and Miami Heat answer the following three critical questions about the specific lineups and rotations they plan to use in the next four to seven games could determine who wins the NBA Finals:

1. What Do the Heat Do When the Lakers Go Big?

The first key matchup question the Heat are going to have to answer if they hope to upset the Lakers and win the NBA Finals is what do they do when the Lakers go big with Dwight Howard, Anthony Davis, and LeBron James? Miami’s starting front court of Bam Adebayo, Jae Crowder, and Duncan Robinson doesn’t match up well against the Lakers’ super-sized front court, which means the Heat may be forced to change their starting lineup.

The Lakers’ Howard, Davis, and James front court is a nightmare matchup for the Heat because they ideally need Bam Adebayo to defend Anthony Davis but Duncan Robinson or Jae Crowder cannot guard Dwight Howard. To make matters worse, even if Adebayo defends Howard, there’s no way Crowder and Robinson will be able to guard Davis and James, which means Miami is likely going to be forced to change their starting backcourt.

This is the matchup that is likely to doom the Heat because it’s going to force them to replace Duncan Robinson, a player whose elite 3-point shooting their offense depends upon, with either Kelly Olynyk or Andre Iguodala. Miami has two options: bring in Olynyk to defend Howard, allowing Adebayo to guard Davis and Crowder to guard James, or bring in Iguodala to defend James, leaving Adebayo on Howard and Crowder on Davis.

Either option is fraught with peril. Adebayo, Crowder, and Iguodala may have a better chance of limiting Howard, Davis, and James than Olynyk, Adebayo, and Crowder even though Bam wouldn’t be guarding Anthony. The Lakers’ advantage in sheer size, talent, and experience in the front court is what makes them the prohibitive favorites in this series. The Heat’s only options may be get Howard in early foul trouble or to go small.

2. What Do the Lakers Do When the Heat Go Small?

The Heat’s best strategy against the Lakers’ big lineup could be to go small and try to force the Lakers to match up by replacing Dwight Howard with Markieff Morris at power forward and moving Anthony Davis to the five. There’s no question that a front court of Adebayo, Crowder, and Robinson or maybe Iguodala versus Davis, Morris, and James would be a much better matchup for the Heat than having to go against Howard, Davis, and James.

The good news for the Heat is that the Lakers normally play their version of small ball with Anthony Davis playing the five around half the time. The bad news is Frank Vogel could surprise everybody and play big all game long. While JaVale McGee has not played great recently, he did play well in the two wins the Lakers had over the Heat back at the end of 2019 and there’s an argument to be made playing two bigs against the Heat could be smart.

One of the Miami Heat’s weaknesses is their lack of a capable defensive center to backup Bam Adebayo and the Lakers going big for the entire game could scramble all of Erik Spoelstra’s planned defensive strategies and rotations. While Howard will likely start and play 30 minutes for the Lakers, there’s a good chance Vogel will give McGee a chance to redeem himself, keep Howard the out of foul trouble, and test whether he can be effective against the Heat.

While a Lakers’ front court of Davis, Morris, and James may be easier for the Heat to match up against, it also may be the Lakers best lineup at both ends of the court, providing better 3-point shooting and quicker rotations. Regardless of what Vogel decides, the Lakers will still have an advantage in the front court whether they stay big with Howard or McGee at the five or go small with Davis at the five against the Heat’s normal starting lineup.

3. What Do the Lakers Do When the Heat play Zone?

One way the Heat might be able to cover for their mismatch disadvantage in the front court against the Lakers is to deploy a 2–3 zone defense, which has been a key element of their defensive game plans throughout the playoffs. The zone could enable them to keep their starting front court of Adebayo, Crowder, and Robinson on the floor, especially when the Lakers went big with Howard or Mcgee at the five. They used the Zone against LA before.

Deploying the 2–3 zone against the Lakers could be a smart strategy for the Heat to test because capable and consistent 3-point shooting, which is one of Los Angeles’ weaknesses, is a critical criteria to beating zone defenses. Unfortunately, the other way smart teams beat zones is to get the ball to a superstar zone buster like LeBron James or Anthony Davis in the heart of the zone at the free throw line where they can either score or facilitate.

In fact, that’s exactly what the Lakers did to beat the Heat zone in the games the Lakers won in November and December 2019. Posting LeBron James and Anthony Davis in the middle led to a plethora of easy points and assists. Spoelstra will have to come up with new wrinkles for the Heat’s 2–3 zone to confuse the Lakers this time around but playing zone is definitely a way for Miami to avoid having to change their normal lineups and rotations.

Look for the Lakers to also exploit the weaknesses of teams playing zones, namely poor offensive rebounding and transition defense because each defender doesn’t have a specific responsibility for any one offensive player. Frank Vogel and the Lakers’ coaching staff are going to have the Lakers ready to take advantage of the Heat’s 2-3 zone, especially when they go big. Laker centers will be sprinting down court looking for touchdown passes.