AD said his primary focus when teams are playing aggressively against him and frequently double-teaming is just to find the open man. Tonight, they didn’t hit shots. He added that his legs feel good at this point despite the long layoff. He’s just happy to be playing games.
— Mike Trudell (@LakersReporter) August 2, 2020
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The Clippers Are Built to Beat LeBron, Not Anthony Davis
Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are two elite NBA defenders—but not against Anthony Davis.@JonathanTjarks: https://t.co/OV1oEADhXV
— The Ringer (@ringer) August 2, 2020
Everything opened up when the Lakers went small. When they swapped McGee and Green for Kyle Kuzma and Alex Caruso in the third against the Clippers, they were plus-10 over the next seven minutes. Playing the 5, Davis had 12 points on 4-of-5 shooting with two assists during that span. His only miss came on a heat-check 3.
That has been the story for Davis all season. His production skyrockets when he’s the only big man on the floor. He has a true shooting percentage of 65.8 and a usage rate of 28.8 in 749 minutes without McGee or Dwight Howard next to him. That is the type of efficiency you expect out of a big man who does nothing but catch lobs. To give you an idea of just how incredible AD’s numbers are in that role, no one with a usage rate higher than 28 (the workload of a primary option) has a true shooting percentage above 62 this season. He’s completely unstoppable when the Lakers give him the space to play one-on-one at the rim.
That was true even when LeBron went to the bench Thursday. The Lakers were plus-5 in the final five minutes of the third with Davis, Kuzma, KCP, Caruso, and Dion Waiters on the floor. They had no traditional point guard, so they ran everything through their other MVP-caliber big man.
Should the Los Angeles Lakers Think about Changing their Starting Lineup?
While basketball experts would think it crazy to change starters after just two games, the Lakers’ starting lineup has been a statistical nightmare in the season restart with just six games remaining before the playoffs begin.
While a veteran coach like Frank Vogel is unlikely to make a drastic move, all five Lakers’ starters posted negative net ratings while all five Lakers’ reserves had positive net ratings the first two games of the season restart. While the Lakers won’t make wholesale changes to their starting lineup, it would be foolish for the coaching staff to ignore this red flag and not start considering possible changes in who starts or at least in minutes played.
After all, the clock is ticking and the Lakers only have six more regular season ‘seeding’ games to make changes to get ready for the playoffs. Here are the Lakers’ player net rating for first two games per NBA.com:
The challenge for Frank Vogel and his staff is to create a starting lineup that complements superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis, which requires more than anything else players who can hit open shots and play defense. From the above stats, we can see the problem with the Lakers’ starting lineups the last two games was offense, not defense. Per NBA.com, Lakers’ starters had a poor 66.7 offensive rating and good 102.2 defensive rating.
The Lakers’ 3-point shooting stats the last two games confirms the problem. As a team, the Lakers’ shot just 27.6% from deep, 29th worst out of 30 teams. Opponents scored 27 more points from deep in the last two games. The Lakers’ poor 3-point shooting allowed the Clippers and the Raptors to clog the middle and keep LeBron James and Anthony Davis from getting to the rim, which was a big factor leading to their subpar performances.
Lakers’ superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis as a duo average 52.1 points per game on 50.1% from the field but in the last two games were held to just 42.0 points per game and just 38.3% field goal percentage. While it’s easy to write off the outcome as James and Davis having subpar games, the truth is the poor shooting performances of their teammates in the Lakers’ starting lineup was likely the reason for their subpar games.
So what are the options the Lakers’ coaching staff should consider? The obvious solution is surround LeBron and AD with better shooting. Here are Lakers’ players 3-point shooting stats the last two games per NBA.com:
It’s obvious the problem with the starting lineup the last two games has been the shooting of guard Danny Green and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Combined, the two have made only 6 of 28 threes for a dismal 21.4%. Caldwell-Pope and Green are the Lakers’ best 3-point shooters so it would be foolish to replace them as starters but the team shouldn’t hesitate to put them on a short lease or fewer minutes if they continue to shoot poorly.
The NBA is a copycat league and the problem facing the Lakers is teams are going to increasingly clog the middle and challenge the Lakers to make shots from beyond the arc so 3-point shooting is going to become critical. The Lakers cannot afford to give players who aren’t shooting well extended time to fix the problem. The playoffs are right around the corner, which means Green and Caldwell-Pope need to start hitting their threes right now.
Should Green or KCP continue to miss their threes, Frank Vogel should not hesitate to start or give Dion Waiters more minutes. While he’s only shot 3 of 12 from deep so far, he’s been a 37.7% 3-point shooter the last two years. While the Lakers envisioned Waiters as the playmaker and shot creator for the second unit when LeBron rests, Dion has posted a better two-player net rating with both James and Davis than either Green or Caldwell-Pope.
Finally, the other option the Lakers have should consider if KCP and/or Green don’t start hitting their threes is moving Anthony Davis to the five to replace JaVale McGee and inserting Kyle Kuzma into the starting lineup. Kuz has already earned a role in the Lakers closing rotation and is playing the second most minutes after LeBron. At some point, Kuzma and Waiters are going to become key players in the Lakers championship quest.s0-
Frank Vogel’s been steadfast in keeping the same starting lineup all year but the playoffs are different and the Lakers need to watch Green’s and KCP’s shooting woes closely and adjust sooner rather than later if necessary.
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5 Things: Tinkering
Well, that was informative. The Toronto Raptors played the Lakers riding a 10 game winning streak versus the purple and gold that they stretched to 11 and in the process illuminating a few troubling patterns.
- Nobody on the Lakers is shooting well. Over the first 2 games in the bubble one thing is clear: our shooting is evidently still self-isolating in Los Angeles. Certainly hasn’t looked like it made the trip, so far. Over 2 games we’re shooting 27.6% from three, and 37.4% overall. Oddly enough we put up exactly 82 shots in both games making 3 more against the Clippers. In both the win and the loss we shot poorly. Some guys got hot at the right times against the Clippers, didn’t replicate that against the Raptors.
- Danny Green has started off very, very slowly. Looks like he’s a step slow right now. He did play improved defense last night, especially on the low block, but still doesn’t look right on that front, either. As the 3rd highest paid Laker Danny needs to step it up a little bit and find a groove before the playoffs.
- Dwight Howard’s mentality isn’t right. As always he looks ripped, he’s moving well but his mind is not in Orlando, yet. He pulled a lot of focus before entering the bubble on a lot of different fronts, has flouted some Bubble protocol and isn’t the X-factor he worked so hard to become during the regular season. It would be a shame if he didn’t at least approach that level of impact but right now I’d just as soon see JaVale McGee in those minutes until Dwight gets his head in the game. Needs to stop setting silly moving screens, needs to box out rather than clear out in the post, and he needs to let the refereeing go. Big time on that last one, which is certainly not an issue unique to Dwight Howard. But I feel that, in his case, he needs to focus on the hardwood and what he can do on it. Let the rest of that stuff sort itself out.
- It’s been said before but it’s worth repeating: we’re only going as far as LeBron and Anthony take us. LeBron looks off, more human, less able to get to the rim at will. I think he’s miffed he’s not getting any foul calls unless they’re extremely obvious but he’s got to play through that and, like Dwight, focus more on what he needs to do to elevate this team without Avery Bradley. Davis looked fairly disinterested last night. Yes, he was often doubled whenever he got the rock, often a few seconds before. Toronto rotates on defense as well as anyone in the league, probably the best right now in the Bubble. But you have to find a way to score and outside of a stretch where he forced some whistles and followed it up with a three he was quiet for long stretches of the game. Might be trying to let the game come to him too much and needs to out the pedal down on his own.
- I don’t think you can play J.R. Smith and Dion Waiters at the same time and expect the guys on the floor not to sieve points. Dion has some instincts on that end, has a couple of nice help plays coming from the weak-side to his credit, but overall looks pretty lost out there. J.R. was never a touted defender, tried well-enough during his high impact years in Cleveland but aging a couple of years and not playing last season didn’t improve his defensive moxie. Likely, it’s suffered and it’s hard for me to justify major minutes for Smith right now, especially when he looks gun-shy on wide open looks like he has in too many games, scrimmages included. He needs to get his head out of his brain and into a basketball and let it fly the second he’s open. We don’t need him to make another play, someone just made one for you and you need to shoot it dude. Waiters looks like he’s trying a little too hard to earn a payday when he just needs to find a rhythm with his teammates out there, especially Kuzma whom he’s likely to share a lot of minutes with. When all three (Smith, Waiters, and Kuzma) share the floor we’re over-weighted on scorers and need more defense and play-making. In a few weeks when Rondo comes back I highly suspect we’ll see his minutes pulled from Smith’s and we might end up seeing more Quinn Cook out there cause at least he knows where to be and when.
That’s the Fiver. Honestly, there could be another couple of topics (namely how good and hungry the Toronto Raptors look coming out of the gate, Nick Nurse is on point and has those guys believing, strong chance to repeat as eastern conference champs, IMO) but it’s only game 2 of the seeding games. Hard to see us losing out the rest of the way so I’m still thinking we lock up the west by the end of next week but the shooting and lack of defensive cohesiveness is troubling already. Hope to see game-to-game improvement in some areas as we move on.
Lastly, in a more real and sombre note, the first person I truly know and have worked with on some theatre projects in the past has come down with COVID-19. He and his girlfriend tested positive this week. They played it pretty safe, masked up, don’t go out in public much and they still got it. It’s real, we all need to do better and we need to continually question why more isn’t being done. So, please, do be careful, stay safe, be well and go Lakers.